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The Swamp

  • #100,021
  • Apr 28, 2022 11:10am Apr 28, 2022 11:10am
Quoting fontu
{quote} So this time will be daily weekly and monthly close to determine what next. Then usdx will compete for about 103.61 daily, 103.48 weekly and 102.22 monthly closes. So market not going any where so soon. And again try not to close any exact as still bullish usdx! So tested and now retest 103.94 or even more possible!
117.70 usdx Norm, Should put Eu around 0.8017/0.750. Give or take 1000 pips.

13.x% more
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,022
  • Apr 28, 2022 11:19am Apr 28, 2022 11:19am
Quoting fontu
Usdx reached the target, ok may more ups but watching to see all reaction with closed shorts! Take care all {image}
I have 112.37 on the way for dxy and then 120.28.
A rally started May2011 from 72.98 to high 103.82 Jan2017. The low of 88.25 Feb2018 was 50% Fib.
Based on my system and looking to current strength and momentum, first target is 112.37 and 2nd is 120.28. It still can go higher and it may take years.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #100,023
  • Apr 28, 2022 11:26am Apr 28, 2022 11:26am
Friday would be 7 green candles. Friday is the months end. Tomorrow may end up closing the eu below 0452. Next week may be a decent retrace. We will see
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,024
  • Edited 11:50am Apr 28, 2022 11:33am | Edited 11:50am
Quoting gatorinla
Friday would be 7 green candles. Friday is the months end. Tomorrow may end up closing the eu below 0452. Next week may be a decent retrace. We will see {image}
Bears have done some damage.. If bears rest, bulls will start with a close above 0516. St now with the current low above 0518.. 0518 subject to change.. 0516 is solid. 0452 is solid. Just a bounce.. Maybe a few hundred pips.. Depending on close. If the close is below 0486.. That may be enough to cut the cord off 0835. I look to short that bounce. Maybe some light longs..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,025
  • Apr 28, 2022 11:45am Apr 28, 2022 11:45am
Many eu bulls were wiped out. Little talk about longs on threads. We are going to do it with evidence. If it shows itself. Keep 0516/18 in mind. Bulls would need it closed above. That may be step #1, next week
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,026
  • Apr 28, 2022 12:02pm Apr 28, 2022 12:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
Many eu bulls were wiped out. Little talk about longs on threads. We are going to do it with evidence. If it shows itself. Keep 0516/18 in mind. Bulls would need it closed above. That may be step #1, next week
Aww, don't say that, I'm getting bullisher by the day. 520-430 range was a very significant turning point 5 years ago. These past two days no matter how bearish it all looked we keep finding our way back over 520. That's why I said yesterday that 0500 is a better than average chance to change trend short/middle term.
In context the past 5 days that I'm sure blew many many accounts was not even 400 pips. It can literally take it back in a day or two as it used to.
  • #100,027
  • Apr 28, 2022 12:10pm Apr 28, 2022 12:10pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Now if the Ukraine's can sneak up on the Flagship, and sink it. Why not a oil taker, or a fertilizer ship (docked in port)? Why not several ports with drones, or whatever at the same time? All it takes is a heat source. Those switchblades have a 60 mile range. They are small enough to sneak around with.
Quoting gatorinla
{quote}They can take out a tanker, refinery, a NG/oil storage facility, pipeline, electric transmission stations (grid). communication, RT etc. . Why wouldn't they be able to take out the bridge of a war ship. If they can pernitrate a tank. They can penetrate a ship hull. Of a fertilizer ship or a tanker. A window in the Kremlin.
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} They are so small radar wont pick them up. Instead of 1, why not a few dozen. They cant shoot them all down. If it can destroy a tank. It can hit the rudder assembly on a ship. It possible could penetrate the ships artillery magazine. Boom, another sunk ship. Any ship within a miles may be gone. It would take years to rebuild. No shipments, No war money for Putin. . https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5yFZsGAJukU
Who would of thunk? https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/r...bed-oil-depots

"
Ukrainian TB2 Bayraktar drone 'bombed oil depots deep inside Russia'
Source says Turkish-made armed drone hit the fuel storages in Russia's Bryansk, breaching advanced air defences"
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,028
  • Apr 28, 2022 12:14pm Apr 28, 2022 12:14pm
Quoting gatorinla
Friday would be 7 green candles. Friday is the months end. Tomorrow may end up closing the eu below 0452. Next week may be a decent retrace. We will see {image}
Hi gator, is there a chance to EU to bounce up till 1.11?
Since this drop is too brutal i think..

Many thanks..
  • #100,029
  • Apr 28, 2022 12:20pm Apr 28, 2022 12:20pm
Quoting xav
{quote} Aww, don't say that, I'm getting bullisher by the day. 520-430 range was a very significant turning point 5 years ago. These past two days no matter how bearish it all looked we keep finding our way back over 520. That's why I said yesterday that 0500 is a better than average chance to change trend short/middle term. In context the past 5 days that I'm sure blew many many accounts was not even 400 pips. It can literally take it back in a day or two as it used to.
EU is bearish.. It will be bearish with a 400 pip rise. Any rise will need to hold the closes. We just need to find those points. And respect the hell out the bears.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,030
  • Apr 28, 2022 12:21pm Apr 28, 2022 12:21pm
Quoting hans91
{quote} Hi gator, is there a chance to EU to bounce up till 1.11? Since this drop is too brutal i think.. Many thanks..
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,031
  • Apr 28, 2022 12:29pm Apr 28, 2022 12:29pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} EU is bearish.. It will be bearish with a 400 pip rise. Any rise will need to hold the closes. We just need to find those points. And respect the hell out the bears.
I'm looking at the monthly chart and I think it's bullish and will remain until a couple thousand pips. Of course we are in a bearish correction on smaller time frames.
But I think I'm not the only one who sees 520. Check out today's L close and the price action leading up to it.
  • #100,032
  • Apr 28, 2022 1:08pm Apr 28, 2022 1:08pm
Quoting xav
{quote} I'm looking at the monthly chart and I think it's bullish and will remain until a couple thousand pips. Of course we are in a bearish correction on smaller time frames. But I think I'm not the only one who sees 520. Check out today's L close and the price action leading up to it.
Looking on the month to the left. Its the best chance you had in a while. Now if the month closes below 0505 it will be the lowest month close in 19.5 years. It will be lower than any month close since Dec 2002. A close above could be bullish.. But for how long? The fundi's are bearish. A bounce is great. Atm pa is close to closing a b/o monthly close. Bulls could sweep in and hold the close above. That dont change the fundis. It should come back after. Not only that. Pa is below 0833.5. That and a close below 0505 is not eu bullish. I'm not saying it wont bounce some. During a bounce something could change to push it up again. I just know pa likes to pivot on numbers like usdx 117.9 and 0835.. A large close below 0486 makes getting back to 0835 harder.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,033
  • Apr 28, 2022 1:16pm Apr 28, 2022 1:16pm
red and yellow tl.. it looks like a b/o here.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,034
  • Apr 28, 2022 1:21pm Apr 28, 2022 1:21pm
Quoting gatorinla
red and yellow tl.. it looks like a b/o here. {image}
channel wise
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,035
  • Apr 28, 2022 1:23pm Apr 28, 2022 1:23pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} channel wise {image}
wider channel tl about 0.950
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,036
  • Edited 2:42pm Apr 28, 2022 1:24pm | Edited 2:42pm
Quoting saninvestor
{quote} I have 112.37 on the way for dxy and then 120.28. A rally started May2011 from 72.98 to high 103.82 Jan2017. The low of 88.25 Feb2018 was 50% Fib. Based on my system and looking to current strength and momentum, first target is 112.37 and 2nd is 120.28. It still can go higher and it may take years.
yeah likely towards 120 but still 103.94 if one of the greatest resistance in recent days !
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #100,037
  • Apr 28, 2022 1:32pm Apr 28, 2022 1:32pm
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,038
  • Apr 28, 2022 1:48pm Apr 28, 2022 1:48pm
Quoting fontu
{quote} yeak likely towards 120 but still 103.94 if one of the greatest resistance in recent days !
Its looking pretty bullish if closing the month above 103.45..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #100,039
  • Apr 28, 2022 5:31pm Apr 28, 2022 5:31pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If you spend more on food. You buy less crap. Shit runs downhill. What's bad for the U.S. goes to China. What's bad in China, goes to Australia. The U.S. sells less Caterpillar The circle of life. What's bad in the U.S. means less discretionary (BMW) spending worldwide. Less jobs building crap that's not selling. No job, you buy less. Your money goes to food first. {image} {image}
was busy with trading today and reading earnings and conference calls.
the situation in Ukraine hit faster than i had imagine.

It will be a very strange week next week with Powel.

even AMZN had horrific earnings and guided lower. things are not looking good atm

Europe i would say it's in recession. it the war continues, consumers will change their behaviour. imo
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #100,040
  • Apr 28, 2022 5:38pm Apr 28, 2022 5:38pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqdNe8u-Jsg&t=35s
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
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