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The Swamp

  • #99,861
  • Apr 26, 2022 8:03am Apr 26, 2022 8:03am
yen finally giving up
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #99,862
  • Apr 26, 2022 8:19am Apr 26, 2022 8:19am
yo EUR. lol bidless ?
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #99,863
  • Apr 26, 2022 9:14am Apr 26, 2022 9:14am
learn your lesson
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #99,864
  • Apr 26, 2022 9:16am Apr 26, 2022 9:16am
Quoting DMA Trader
learn your lesson {image}
no shorts again
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #99,865
  • Apr 26, 2022 9:45am Apr 26, 2022 9:45am
Russia halted gas to Poland
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #99,866
  • Apr 26, 2022 10:00am Apr 26, 2022 10:00am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1.0689.4
It got harder to get to 0734 and 0707.7.. Some R at 0690 and 0671.4. 0671.4 is close. It may be one for a short. We may see capitulation
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,867
  • Apr 26, 2022 10:05am Apr 26, 2022 10:05am
opex for tomorrow:
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
It's official. Noone has a clue what eu is doing any more.
  • #99,868
  • Apr 26, 2022 10:21am Apr 26, 2022 10:21am
1/2 way to 0486. 0660/61 is right there. It may be R. For a small risk.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,869
  • Apr 26, 2022 10:27am Apr 26, 2022 10:27am
Quoting xav
opex for tomorrow: [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] It's official. Noone has a clue what eu is doing any more.
I could imagine 0.8017 would look like this on some days. We havent seen a 300 or 400 pip day in a while
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,870
  • Apr 26, 2022 10:40am Apr 26, 2022 10:40am
Quoting gatorinla
1/2 way to 0486. 0660/61 is right there. It may be R. For a small risk. {image}
LC just closed slightly above.. This may be a new S/R forming 0660/61. 1 min chart
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,871
  • Apr 26, 2022 10:50am Apr 26, 2022 10:50am
Quoting gatorinla
1/2 way to 0486. 0660/61 is right there. It may be R. For a small risk. {image}
Catching a falling knife sucks. On the sideline to see if 0660x becomes S or R is a waiting game. The Usdx may be hitting R. Along with 0660. The eu may have a little bounce.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,872
  • Apr 26, 2022 11:06am Apr 26, 2022 11:06am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I could imagine 0.8017 would look like this on some days. We havent seen a 300 or 400 pip day in a while
Truth be told, for the past 5 weeks options can't really keep up with eu. Even 5bn expiries had no attraction which means there's larger money in this selloff.
  • #99,873
  • Apr 26, 2022 11:13am Apr 26, 2022 11:13am
Quoting xav
{quote} Truth be told, for the past 5 weeks options can't really keep up with eu. Even 5bn expiries had no attraction which means there's larger money in this selloff.
Those are fleas on the backs of elephants In a 4-5 trillion $ a day market. Its just like anything else. They work when they work. They dont work when they dont. They work most often. But not written in stone.

Lots of little scalps around 0660.. watch it on a 1 min..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,874
  • Apr 26, 2022 11:37am Apr 26, 2022 11:37am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Those are fleas on the backs of elephants In a 4-5 trillion $ a day market. Its just like anything else. They work when they work. They dont work when they dont. They work most often. But not written in stone. Lots of little scalps around 0660.. watch it on a 1 min..
They work because they represent so much more directional bias than the notional value suggests. Options are mostly used by banks and hedge funds that give markets direction 99% of the time. The 1% is when an even bigger player is in the market that has an unlimited supply of USD so the usually evenly balanced 4-5 trillion is tilted. Without that elephant a 4hr chart doesn't move for several hundred pips in a straight line.
Yesterday they did the same on a 1min chart for 5-6 hours into Asia.
  • #99,875
  • Apr 26, 2022 11:45am Apr 26, 2022 11:45am
Quoting xav
{quote} They work because they represent so much more directional bias than the notional value suggests. Options are mostly used by banks and hedge funds that give markets direction 99% of the time. The 1% is when an even bigger player is in the market that has an unlimited supply of USD so the usually evenly balanced 4-5 trillion is tilted. Without that elephant a 4hr chart doesn't move for several hundred pips in a straight line. Yesterday they did the same on a 1min chart for 5-6 hours into Asia.
I think 99% is a little over rated. There is about 260 trading days in 1 year. That means about 257.5 of those days at 99%. Or about 2.5 days they are wrong. I can count much more than 2.5 days wrong days in past few weeks. I will give you they are right most of the time. A high % of the time they are right. 99% is a little much. Or we would all be making money following them.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,876
  • Apr 26, 2022 11:58am Apr 26, 2022 11:58am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I think 99% is a little over rated. There is about 260 trading days in 1 year. That means about 257.5 of those days at 99%. Or about 2.5 days they are wrong. I can count much more than 2.5 days wrong days in past few weeks. I will give you they are right most of the time. A high % of the time they are right. 99% is a little much. Or we would all be making money following them.
Obviously "99%" is hyperbole. I meant to say "most of the time" as noone really has reliable data on the actual percentage. What I was thinking of is that there aren't that many times in a year that the elephant is active. If at all.
But opex is just a data point you can't expect a profitable strategy following only that. You need a confluence of data points to have an edge.
  • #99,877
  • Apr 26, 2022 12:14pm Apr 26, 2022 12:14pm
Quoting xav
{quote} Obviously "99%" is hyperbole. I meant to say "most of the time" as noone really has reliable data on the actual percentage. What I was thinking of is that there aren't that many times in a year that the elephant is active. If at all. But opex is just a data point you can't expect a profitable strategy following only that. You need a confluence of data points to have an edge.
Yeah, they try to anticipate the elephants movement. They have smart guys who make big bucks working for them. Some of the elephants walk in different directions. Those elephants have smart guys who make big bucks too. All with different opinions. That's what a market is. Sometimes the elephants butt heads. Sometimes unforeseen shit happens. Sometimes they are just wrong. I use them some too. Sometimes it gives an edge. Sometimes they dont. Most often they are right.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,878
  • Apr 26, 2022 12:47pm Apr 26, 2022 12:47pm
I was hoping for a little retrace on the usd 102.21 and eu 0660. Usd bulls are very tough..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,879
  • Apr 26, 2022 2:00pm Apr 26, 2022 2:00pm
we went in this week with :

1 - very important earnings - in a few hours big tech is starting - for sentiment in the market huge importance today
2 - month ending - well it is still the end this week/month - so be careful but the forces against risk now are extremely strong
you need to understand big money doesn't care about anything else when it comes to options.
3 - FED meeting next week - buy the rumour sell the news ? who knows. FED will be in a very hard situation next week

so even from here going forward into the week and next week - it's still not easy

tensions in Europe., there are new information's that tensions are higher than ever

Gas to Poland is halted, interventions near Moldova/Transnistria

So while we are building huge into shorting eur a time will come when shorts will be decimated if they are not disciplined and greedy just like longs are now.
discipline and patience comes first.

but you need to understand the fear in the market is very high. nothing matters more than protecting capital
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #99,880
  • Apr 26, 2022 2:53pm Apr 26, 2022 2:53pm
GAS to Bulgaria is now halted
this week and next week Russia will adress any "unfriendly" country that will not pay in RUB
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
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