It seems like natural gas is going to be interesting in months ahead. I would love to see others analysis. I am pretty biased, so I find it difficult do analysis on it.
{quote} I dont follow other market - how is it going with this wave count? and what book do you recommend - am reading Glen Neely now and its a bit complicated to grasp but doable I guess
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No confirmation yet, will wait and see. This looks like a typical x wave.
I started with Mastering Elliott Wave which I regret due its complexity. Five waves to financial freedom by Ramki is by far the best choice for beginners imo.
{quote} No confirmation yet, will wait and see. This looks like a typical x wave. I started with Mastering Elliott Wave which I regret due its complexity. Five waves to financial freedom by Ramki is by far the best choice for beginners imo.
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Yeah great thanks - I actually have read that book , also tried his new book but is identical to 5 waves to financial freedom
His book indeed is excellent and so easy to follow
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
There are different views: This rally is the beginning of the 5th and final wave after which there will be a substantial retrace to at least 50% of the whole long move.
This chart below is to show a possible ending diagonal as the 4th wave has encroached into the 1st wave. so, this possibility could have ended the 1st wave and there will be a fast retrace to at least 50% as a 2nd wave and then a rally again up to the 3rd wave to 161.8 %.
Gold has completed 3rd wave at 161.8 % and is now in the 4th wave to FE 100 at 2358 to 2360. once completed there will be another rally to FE 200 (marked at 2413) at least. usually, commodities extend on the 5th wave. in that case you can expect price to reach 261.8% (2447 to 2450) before any retrace.
Dear traders, my TP on gold has hit at 38.2 of this rally (2416). this could be the 1st wave of a 5th larger rally. Now expecting a retrace to 50% at 2347. Since gold is extremely bullish, there is a good possibility that gold will extend to 61.8 to 2445 before a retrace. if it extends, then we have to wait for the momentum to shift downwards for a minor wave 2. check the chart for details.
Gold has hit the 61.8 which seems perfect as this is a normal target for wave 5 of bigger wave 1. Now we need to wait to see if any lower support breaks to get a-b-c correction to the downside for a wave 2 of wave 1 or will it extend further. if gold breaks 61.8 convincingly, then another extension is possible as commodities extend a lot in the final wave. so, wait before selling, i would suggest waiting for a (minor 5 waves down as A) and a (3 wave retrace as B,) then we can sell 5 waves down for C. Selling blindly in a bull market will only end up losing it all.
Here is a 5 minute chart of a good possibility. i will sell for a C wave down with a tight stop loss. sell limit at 2424 , 2431 . Stop loss at 2439 . {image}
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Gold update.
The probability of a C wave down has gone down now.
on the 5 minute chart, we never got a 5th wave, if it did, then it was a truncated wave. the only chance of a C wave down is an ending diagonal where the 4th wave has ventured into the 1st wave but it looks remote. so we can conclude this was a 3 wave correction and more upside to follow. will buy on a retrace for 2nd wave to 2426. SL at 2414.
if not i will quit exposing my EW fantasies for good... {image}
