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AUDUSD, the pair may fall

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of C developed, and a downward correction forms as the wave (2) of C. Now, the wave of the lower level and of (2) has formed, the wave B of (2) has developed, and the formation of the wave C of (2) has started.

If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the levels of 0.6742 - 0.6446. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.7663.
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Tesla Inc, technical analysis

The shares of Tesla Inc., the world's leading manufacturer of electric cars, continue their global correction, trading at 1022.
On the daily chart, the trading instrument is within the global Expanding formation pattern, which began to implement in October 2021. At the moment, the price has completely formed its sixth wave, having reached the resistance line at 1146, and reversed downwards.

On the 4-hour chart, there are signs of a new downward wave, with the target at the support line of the pattern around 760. The readings of technical indicators also confirm the likely continuation of the decline: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are actively approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming bars with a downward trend in the buying zone.

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NZDUSD, the pair is in a correction, a fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the upward wave of the higher level (А) of B formed, and a downward correction develops as the wave (B) of B, within which the wave C of (B) forms. Now, a local correction has developed as the second wave of the lower level ii of C, and the formation of the third wave iii of C has started.

If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the levels of 0.6466 - 0.6224. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.7035.

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Crude Oil, correction after another sharp rise

Futures for WTI Crude Oil showed a downward trend during the Asian session, shedding 0.74% in value, and are currently trading in the 103.3 area. Investors open short positions on the instrument, reacting to the negative statistics on the excessive growth of stocks of raw materials in the US against the backdrop of a reduction in global consumption.

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), energy stocks rose by 9.382M barrels last week, although analysts had forecast an increase in 863K barrels. The sharp move is partly due to a sudden decline in US refining capacity utilization, which has also caused gasoline and distillate inventories to shrink, and inventories are on the rise due to the release of "black gold" from the country's national strategic reserves. It is worth noting that initially, this statistic was ignored by traders, and on Wednesday, the asset strengthened, but now you can notice the delayed impact of the news and the decline in energy quotations.

However, the market situation remains tense due to possible disruptions to global supplies. Investors are watching the development of the military conflict in Ukraine and sanctions against the Russian economy, including possible restrictions on the transportation of hydrocarbons. The US and UK authorities have already abandoned Russian fuel, but the EU has so far refrained from an embargo on oil and gas imports. On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency warned that the market would miss about 3M barrels of oil per day since May due to prohibitive measures. Major global trading houses also plan to cut fuel purchases from Russian state-owned companies. In particular, one of the largest oil traders in the world, the Swiss-Dutch company Vitol Group, intends to stop trading in oil and oil products from Russia until the end of 2022.
A temporary decrease in demand for "black gold" in China due to anti-COVID restrictions smooths out problems with the supply of raw materials globally, but as demand recovers, quotes will grow. WTI Crude Oil above 100 dollars per barrel is a sound long-term target.

The long-term trend is upward, and its key support is 95. Last week, the "bears" unsuccessfully tried to reverse the trend, but as a result, the rate is approaching the resistance of 105.75, in case of a breakout of which, the next growth target will be 117.5.

The medium-term trend is downwards. This week there was a price correction to the area of key resistance 103.71–102.76. As long as sellers hold this area, short positions can be considered with the target at the current week's low. If the key resistance is broken, the trend will reverse upwards, and zone 2 (113.21 - 112.26) will become the target for long positions.

Resistance levels: 105.75, 117.5 | Support levels: 95, 85

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Amazon Inc, the price may grow.
On the daily chart, the upward third wave of the higher level (3) formed, and a downward correction developed as the fourth wave (4). Now, the formation of the fifth wave (5) has started, within which the first wave of the lower level 1 of (5) has formed, and a local correction is ending to develop as the wave 2 of (5).

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the price will grow to the levels of 3759 - 4000. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 2665.51.

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USDJPY, the price may grow.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 of (1) develops, within which the fifth wave v of 3 develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of v has formed.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the local correction as the fourth wave (iv) v the pair will grow to the levels of 128.5 - 130. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 121.8.

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Gold, The pair may grow.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 of (5) develops, within which the wave iii of 3 forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of iii is developing, within which the wave iii of (iii) has formed, the correctional wave iv of (iii) has ended, and the wave v of (iii) is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 2100 - 2200. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1890.45.

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NZDUSD, return to March lows

The New Zealand dollar is moderately declining against the US currency during the morning session, testing the level of 0.6770 for a breakdown. NZDUSD develops a "bearish" momentum and returns to the local lows of March 16, updated last Wednesday, which became the most volatile day of the week.

On April 13, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised interest rates by 50 basis points at once from 1% to 1.50%. The indicator was adjusted for the fourth time in a row, but each time the regulator raised it by only 0.25%. In a follow-up statement, the officials noted that such a move is designed to provide additional flexibility in economic policy in the face of high geopolitical uncertainty, as well as to curb high inflation and the cost of living, which is one of the key problems for world economies today. Note that consumer prices in New Zealand rose by almost 6% with while the target range of the RBNZ of 1–3%.

The macroeconomic statistics released the day before managed to provide only little support to the instrument: Business NZ PMI rose from 53.6 to 53.8 points in March, while analysts had expected a more modest value of 53.7 points. Meanwhile, New Zealand is gradually opening its borders to tourists. Thus, fully vaccinated residents of neighboring Australia will be able to visit the country without having to go through quarantine. Travelers from other visa-free countries will be allowed to enter New Zealand from May 2.

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are declining rather actively. The price range is expanding; however, it fails to catch the development of "bearish" sentiments. MACD is preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is still located near its lows, signaling a strongly oversold NZD in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.6812, 0.6874, 0.6924, 0.696 | Support levels: 0.6732, 0.67, 0.665, 0.66

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EURUSD, the pair may grow.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (3) formed, and a downward correction ends to develop as the second wave 2 of (3), within which the wave c of 2 ends. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level (v) of c of 2 is developing, within which the wave v of (v) of c is ending.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.1485 - 1.169. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.063.

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Gold, prices are approaching $2,000 again

XAUUSD shows moderate growth during the morning session, updating local highs from March 14. The "thin" market encourages the purchase of safe assets, so the US dollar and gold strengthen their positions. The precious metal is moving higher for the second week in a row, as statistics on consumer prices in the US, where inflation in March reached 8.5% on an annualized basis, which is the highest since 1981, increases the attractiveness of XAUUSD for hedging risks in anticipation of the next financial crisis. The situation on the market changes little, as the news background after the Easter week remains quite calm.

Demand for the metal is supported by general tension, which is expressed primarily by investors' concern about global inflation rates. Due to the military conflict in Ukraine and subsequent sanctions against the Russian economy, energy quotes rushed up sharply, which provoked an increase in consumer and production prices in the global economy, which had just begun to recover from the period of the coronavirus pandemic. Under these conditions, gold actively added in price. In turn, an increase in the yield of treasury bonds, as well as expectations of further tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve, is holding back "bullish" sentiment on the instrument. Monthly bonds showed the maximum increase, having added 8.68% and amounted to 0.4108%, while the yield on 10-year bonds increased by 2.01% to 2.864%.

Today's macroeconomic statistics from China did not support the instrument significantly. GDP in Q1 2022 showed a slowdown from 1.5% to 1.3%, which, however, turned out to be noticeably better than the expected 0.6%, while in annual terms, the Chinese economy accelerated from 4.0% to 4.8%, ahead of analysts' forecasts at 4.4%.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is expanding but it fails to conform to the surge of "bullish" sentiments at the moment. MACD indicator is growing keeping a buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic retains an upward direction but is located in close proximity to its highs, which indicates the overbought instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 2000, 2015.3, 2030, 2050 | Support levels: 1974.22, 1952.53, 1930, 1900

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BTCUSD, the downward trend continues

This week, the BTCUSD pair is declining within the framework of a four-week downtrend. The quotes of "digital gold" have dropped to the area of 39000 and are likely to continue negative dynamics in the near future. Pressure on the asset is exerted by two main factors: the expectation of further tightening of monetary policy by the US Fed and the traditional profit-taking by investors during the holidays.

Experts believe that the officials of the American regulator will continue to sharply increase the interest rate (by 0.50% or more) in order to prevent the growth of inflation. These measures will undoubtedly contribute to strengthening the position of the USD, but will put pressure on alternative assets, including cryptocurrencies, which may persist until the situation in the US economy stabilizes.

It should also be noted that over the weekend, short-term support for prices was provided by the nomination by US President Joe Biden of Michael Barr for the post of chief responsible for large banks at the US Fed. Since 2015, Barr has worked as a consultant for Ripple Labs, so he is well acquainted with the crypto industry. The appearance of another supporter of cryptocurrencies among the officials of the American regulator may contribute to the adoption of digital assets by American government structures. However, long-term pressure factors are currently seen as strong enough to ensure further price declines.

Technically, the price continues to be within a wide ascending channel and is now tending to its lower limit. The nearest reduction targets may be 37500 (Murray [4/8]) and 35300 (Fibo retracement of 0.0%). The key for the "bulls" is 42200 (Fibo retracement of 23.6%), the breakout of which will allow the instrument to strengthen up to the levels of 43750 (Murray [6/8]), 46300 (Fibo retracement of 38.2%). Technical indicators signal the continuation of the downward trend: the Bollinger Bands and the Stochastic are reversing downwards, the MACD histogram is increasing in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 42200, 43750, 46300 | Support levels: 37500, 35300

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Silver price may grow.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 of (1) develops, within which the fifth wave v of 3 develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of v has formed.

If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 128.5 - 130. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 122.63.
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NZDUSD, the instrument retreats from February lows

The New Zealand dollar shows a slight increase against the US dollar during the Asian session, retreating from the local lows of February 28, updated the day before. The positive dynamics of the instrument today is largely of a technical nature, while the news background remains quite modest and does not encourage investors to buy risky assets. However, the New Zealand dollar is under pressure from rising US bond yields, with 10-year yields climbing to 2.85% and 30-year yields to 2.93%, the highest level since April 2019. The USD Index gained over 0.20% to hit 100.975, testing the 2022 top. The US currency is also supported by the expectations of a more rapid tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve in comparison with other leading world central banks. Traders drew attention to today's publication of Business NZ PSI. In March, the indicator unexpectedly strengthened from 48.9 to 51.6 points, which turned out to be better than the average analysts' forecasts.

In addition, investors continue to evaluate macroeconomic statistics released yesterday from China. In Q1 2022, the country's GDP grew by 1.3% in quarterly terms and 4.8% in annual terms, which turned out to be noticeably better than market expectations at the level of 0.6% QoQ and 4.4% YoY. In turn, the pace of Industrial Production in China in March slowed down from 7.5% to 5%, while Retail Sales showed a sharp decline by 3.5% after an increase of 6.7% in February. Analysts attribute the decline in Retail Sales dynamics to quarantine, which China was forced to introduce in some provinces in response to an outbreak of coronavirus.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range is expanding, having difficulty keeping up with the surge of the "bearish" moods in the short term. MACD is going down, keeping a fairly stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, having reached its lows is reversing into the horizontal plane, indicating risks of oversold NZD in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.6770, 0.6812, 0.6874, 0.6924 | Support levels: 0.67, 0.665, 0.66, 0.655

AUDUSD, the pair may fall.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of C developed, and a downward correction forms as the wave (2) of C. Now, the wave of the lower level A of (2) has formed, the wave B of (2) has developed, and the formation of the wave C of (2) has started.

If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the levels of 0.6742 - 0.6446. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.7663.

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USDJPY, US dollar retreated from record highs

The US dollar is recovering its position against the Japanese yen in Asian trading, correcting after a downtrend the day before, when the US currency showed a decrease in almost the entire spectrum of the market against the background of the rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve, which significantly corrected investors' expectations regarding a possible rate hike at the May meeting more than 0.50%.

San Francisco Fed President and FOMC member Mary Daly noted a correction in the federal funds rate to 2.5% by the end of the year, since a smooth transition to a neutral policy is the main priority of the regulator at the moment. The official stressed that the risks of uncertainty remain on the market caused by the development of the military conflict in Ukraine and the recorded outbreaks of COVID-19. In addition, traders drew attention to not the strongest statistics from the US on the dynamics of Existing Home Sales.

In turn, pressure on the yen was exerted by data from Japan. In March, Exports from the country slowed down from 19.1% to 14.7%, which turned out to be worse than analysts' forecasts at the level of 17.5%, while Imports for the same period decreased from 34.1% to 31.2%, while investors expected 28.9%. All this led to a trade deficit in March at -412.4 billion yen, which was significantly worse than the -100.8 billion yen forecast by analysts. Additional pressure on the position of the instrument was exerted by the Tertiary Industry Index of Japan, which fell by 1.3% in February after a decrease of 0.7% a month earlier.

A more "dovish" outcome of the Bank of Japan's meeting on April 28 and a further rise in US bond yields could see USD/JPY break out of its uptrend range and head back into correction.

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a steady increase. The price range expands, freeing a path to new record highs for the "bulls". MACD histogram preserves the uptrend and a buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having reacted to the emergence of corrective dynamics the day before, maintains a confident downward direction, signaling a strongly overbought US dollar in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 128.62, 129.39, 130 | Support levels: 127.5, 127, 126.3, 125.6

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Crude Oil, multidirectional trading dynamics

During the Asian session, WTI Crude Oil prices show multidirectional dynamics, holding close to $103 per barrel.

Yesterday, EU representatives reaffirmed their intention to phase out the import of Russian energy resources, which increased the likelihood of new prohibitive measures being included in the sixth sanctions package. According to the Secretary of State of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of France, Clément Beaune, there are currently active discussions on the embargo with partners from the EU, the US, the UK, and Japan. Meanwhile, shipments of Russian oil by sea have already fallen by 25% (3.12M barrels per day). Also, traders evaluate the dynamics of industrial growth rates globally and, in particular, in China, one of the largest importers of petroleum products.

The instrument was supported yesterday by an unexpectedly sharp reduction in US oil reserves. Thus, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), for the week of April 15, the indicator fell by 8.02M barrels after an increase of 9.382M barrels over the previous period. However, analysts expected the positive dynamics to continue at 2.417M barrels. At the same time, US strategic reserves decreased by 4.7M barrels, while production slightly accelerated to 11.9M barrels. Inventories of gasoline fell by 800K barrels, significantly lower than the expected value of 1.2M barrels.

Bollinger bands are moving flat on the daily chart: the price range remains practically unchanged, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading in the short term. The MACD indicator reversed upwards but keeps its previous sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic practically did not react to the appearance of ambiguous trading dynamics on Wednesday and still signals in favor of developing a downtrend in the nearest time intervals.

Resistance levels: 103, 105, 107.67, 110 | Support levels: 101.37, 100, 98, 96


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Silver, demand for silver is actively rising

After reaching local highs of around 26 dollars per ounce, the quotes of the trading instrument show a local sideways trend and are now around 25.05.
The XAGUSD pair is preparing to continue growing against the backdrop of a positive report from the Silver Institute on the state of the precious metal market and experts' forecasts for the current year. Thus, in 2021, global industrial demand amounted to 508.2M ounces, adding 9% to the value of the previous year, while silver bullion sales increased immediately by 36% to 278.7M ounces, the highest figure in the last seven years, and total demand for the year increased 19% to 1.05B ounces.

As for the forecast for 2022, analysts expect continued positive dynamics and investor interest in the assets of the metal group. Industrial demand for silver is estimated to increase by 6% to 539.6 M ounces, while overall supply could rise by 3% to 1.03B ounces. In general, the overall forecast for the year is positive, and according to the specialists of the Silver Institute, the deficit in the world market will be about 70M ounces.

The price moves within the global ascending corridor, declining after reaching the resistance line. Technical indicators keep a buy signal, but their readings work out a local correction: indicator Alligator's EMA fluctuations range began to narrow, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 26, 27.4 | Support levels: 24.55, 23.1

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GBPUSD, the pound is preparing to continue its decline to the area of 1.3

The British pound has been actively declining this week, reaching the support level of 1.3000 under the pressure of pessimistic investor sentiment regarding the growth of the national economy amid unprecedented high inflation.

According to a Deloitte survey, a record number of UK managers expect operating costs to rise sharply this year as inflation has proved more resilient than expected, with a majority (98%) of respondents believing that the Bank of England will not be able to bounce back prices in the nearest future. The survey included 89 CFOs, 22 of whom were from FTSE-100 companies and 34 from FTSE-250 companies. The results of the study show negative sentiment in business circles, primarily due to disruptions in supply chains and energy supply, as well as high prices as a result of the closure of warehouses with products during the coronavirus pandemic. Against this background, the projected decline in GDP in Q2 2022 is likely to force the Bank of England to decide to raise interest rates as early as this summer.

This news has a negative impact on GBPUSD, which is trading in a long-term downtrend. The key support at the moment is at 1.3000, in case of a breakdown of which the quotes will continue to fall with the targets of 1.2870-1.2700. The nearest resistance level is at 1.3150, near which one can consider new sales.
The mid-term trend is downward. This week, market participants are trying to break through the target zone 2 (1.3060–1.3026). If they succeed, the decline will continue with the target in the area of the target zone 3 (1.2716–1.2682). The key resistance of the trend is shifting to the levels of 1.3351–1.3317.

Resistance levels: 1.3150, 1.3288, 1.34 | Support levels: 1.3, 1.287, 1.27

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Brent Crude Oil, the price is in a correction and may grow.

On the daily chart, the upward wave C develops, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 1 has developed, and a local correction is ending to form as the fourth wave iv of 1, within which the wave (e) of iv is developing.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction the price will grow to the levels of 139.64 - 155. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 97.73.

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Gold, the pair may grow

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 of (5) develops, within which the wave iii of 3 forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of iii is developing, within which the wave iii of (iii) has formed, the correctional wave iv of (iii) has ended, and the wave v of (iii) is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 2100 - 2200. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1890.45.

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