How Long Will Your $1 Million Last in Retirement? | Page 4 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Why your broker is your friend and your enemy 8 replies

long USDCAD, to see how long it will last, for fun 10 replies

A Daily Walk Towards Retirement 2 replies

Using a 401K/retirement to fund a forex account 18 replies

$500 Account - Salary + Retirement Plan 16 replies

Attachments: How Long Will Your $1 Million Last in Retirement?
Exit Attachments

How Long Will Your $1 Million Last in Retirement?

  • #61
  • Apr 13, 2022 1:43am Apr 13, 2022 1:43am
Quoting tetis
What is related to the thread title and these trading charts????
Sorry , didn't understand your question.

KIndly clarify

Thanks
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #62
  • Apr 13, 2022 1:53am Apr 13, 2022 1:53am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} EUR AUD S2D Flip set up. Not looking good. In negative position. {image}

WTF is S2D Flip set up ?
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #63
  • Apr 13, 2022 2:01am Apr 13, 2022 2:01am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} WTF is S2D Flip set up ?
Supply to Demand flip?
When resistance become support on trend change....
Lost....
  • #64
  • Apr 13, 2022 2:03am Apr 13, 2022 2:03am
Quoting DmShka
{quote} Out, I will be looking for future long, after correction
Second attempt, we will see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 64 KB
  • #65
  • Apr 13, 2022 2:06am Apr 13, 2022 2:06am
Quoting gespiri
{quote} Supply to Demand flip? When resistance Supply become support Demand on trend change....

Fix it for you Bro.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: S2D Flip.jpg Size: 23 KB
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #66
  • Apr 13, 2022 2:28am Apr 13, 2022 2:28am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} EUR AUD Recovery trade, as poor trade entry was made. {image}

EUR AUD

Recovering bad entry.

You cannot only look at your drawdown in itself.

Win Rate and Risk Factor are very closely related to it as long as you want to make some profit on your account.

The Win Rate tells you more or less what could be your longest losing streak, so by multiplying that number by the maximum % you decided to take on each trade, you have your drawdown.

Then according to your risk/reward, you know if with the remaining trades you can recover your losses and eventually make some profit.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ea 003.jpg Size: 188 KB
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #67
  • Apr 13, 2022 2:41am Apr 13, 2022 2:41am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} EUR AUD Recovering bad entry. You cannot only look at your drawdown in itself. Win Rate and Risk Factor are very closely related to it as long as you want to make some profit on your account. The Win Rate tells you more or less what could be your longest losing streak, so by multiplying that number by the maximum % you decided to take on each trade, you have your drawdown. Then according to your risk/reward, you know if with the remaining trades you can recover your losses and eventually make some profit. {image}
Hey PAT What you wrote is crucial in a good MM. Another way would be to enter with a single heavier entry, in your case with 6 lots, but with little SL (either on an S / R the price feels it and starts or the S / R doesn't work). I love entry snipers so I prefer second choice. I'd like your comment.
  • #68
  • Apr 13, 2022 2:42am Apr 13, 2022 2:42am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} EUR AUD Recovering bad entry. You cannot only look at your drawdown in itself. Win Rate and Risk Factor are very closely related to it as long as you want to make some profit on your account. The Win Rate tells you more or less what could be your longest losing streak, so by multiplying that number by the maximum % you decided to take on each trade, you have your drawdown. Then according to your risk/reward, you know if with the remaining trades you can recover your losses and eventually make some profit. {image}
On subject of recovering bad trades


Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.
Never invest in a business you cannot understand.

Most people get interested in day-trading currencies/ equities/ futures when everyone else is.
The time to get interested is when no one else is.

You can’t buy what is popular and do well. ( EG , trading only popular pair GU /EU only)

For some reason, people take their cues from price action rather than from values.
What doesn't work is when you start doing things that you don’t understand or because they worked last week for somebody else.

The dumbest reason in the world to buy a currency pair/ equity/futures contract just because it’s going up.

Diversification may preserve wealth, but concentration builds wealth.


Trade Safe.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #69
  • Apr 13, 2022 2:46am Apr 13, 2022 2:46am
this is how banks (the black cat) manage their risk…

https://twitter.com/thefigen/status/...53H4T17NBR-tKg
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #70
  • Apr 13, 2022 2:50am Apr 13, 2022 2:50am
Quoting 19monza64
{quote} Hey PAT What you wrote is crucial in a good MM. Another way would be to enter with a single heavier entry, in your case with 6 lots, but with little SL (either on an S / R the price feels it and starts or the S / R doesn't work). I love entry snipers so I prefer second choice. I'd like your comment.

I have a different kind of risk calculation in taking the trades.
May not be suitable for everyone, as this was develop based on high winning rates trading.

The risk taken on each trade should take into account all the variables at play in your trading system.
That is to say; your capital, the win rate of your system and the average risk reward ratio that your trading system gives to you.

It's amazing how many times you read here and there that you shouldn't risk more than 2% of your account on any single trade and that is just plain wrong as this of course would be too low for a trading system with a good win rate and providing trades with a good risk/reward, but also too much high on the contrary case !

Here is a formula for you to play with it that calculates the optimum risk size for any trade according to your win rate and risk reward ratio.

B1 : Percentage of wins [%].
B2 : Percentage of losses [%].
B4 : Amount of wins [%].
B5 : Amount of losses [%].
B6 : Risk Factor (0,3).
R1 : Possition Size in percentage of your capital [%]
B1 and B2 are from your win ratio, in your case B1=90, B2=10 as you said you had a 90% win ratio trading system.
B4 and B5 are the average the risk reward of your last trades. This means the average you won and lost as a percentage of your capital.
B6 is an arbitrary value : 0.1=very conservative, 0.2 = conservative, 0.3 = optimal, 0,4=aggressive, etc, a word on this later...
Finally, R1 is the calculated position size as a percentage of your account capital.
For this to be accurate, you MUST have a valid trading history giving an accurate win ratio and average RR of at least 100+ trades, is that's not the case, then adjust the Risk factor to 0.2 or even 0.1 until you have accurate data from real trades.

Here is the formula:
R1 = ( (B1*B4)-(B2*B5) ) / B4 * B6
Example for a system which has a win ratio of 60% and an average Risk/Reward of 1:2
B1 = 60
B2 = 40
B4 = 2
B5 = 1
B6 = 0,3
R1 = ( (60*2)-(40*1) ) / 2 * 0.3
R1 = ( 120-40 ) / 2 * 0.3
R1 = 80 / 2 * 0.3
R1 = 40 * 0.3
R1 = 12

So if you have 1000$ in your account, you can risk 12% of it on next trade, this is way too much isn't it ?
Then adjust risk factor...
Play with it on an excel sheet and see the results...

Now you can see how I manage my risk trade.

I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #71
  • Apr 13, 2022 2:54am Apr 13, 2022 2:54am
Quoting MoneyZilla
this is how banks (the black cat) manage their risk… https://twitter.com/thefigen/status/...53H4T17NBR-tKg

That Black cat is world Parkour Champion is it ?.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #72
  • Apr 13, 2022 3:05am Apr 13, 2022 3:05am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} I have a different kind of risk calculation in taking the trades. May not be suitable for everyone, as this was develop based on high winning rates trading. The risk taken on each trade should take into account all the variables at play in your trading system. That is to say; your capital, the win rate of your system and the average risk reward ratio that your trading system gives to you. It's amazing how many times you read here and there that you shouldn't risk more than 2% of your account on any single trade and that is just plain wrong...
Great advice for every one. thank you
  • #73
  • Apr 13, 2022 3:14am Apr 13, 2022 3:14am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} That Black cat is world Parkour Champion is it ?.
the black cat is just a pro trader in Goldman Sax

this is your formula for the risk. in motion:
https://twitter.com/thefigen/status/...fAAX-0gW_onG-Q
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #74
  • Apr 13, 2022 3:55am Apr 13, 2022 3:55am
Back to the basic Question

How Long Will Your $1 Million Last in Retirement?


With UK inflation rose from 6.2% in March to 7% this April.
Energy cost is expect to rise 54%.
CPI printing hard. £ in your wallet will keep worthiness a lot less.

What r you going to do about it?

As UK CPI hits 7% could the Bank of England hike 50bps in May?
Look up the basket, it's pretty common knowledge, they change the items to manipulate the CPI, surely you see it in your own shopping, they do it in UK too.

The interest rates should be sky high but that would cause recession, screwed all ways


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: damd.jpg Size: 24 KB
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #75
  • Apr 13, 2022 4:01am Apr 13, 2022 4:01am
Later


Today there are special indicators that affect $Gold.

US PPI and CORE PPI DATA data to be released.

It will definitely be VOLATILE there.
Pay attention to the US10Y chart this week .


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ppi.jpg Size: 52 KB
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #76
  • Apr 13, 2022 4:05am Apr 13, 2022 4:05am
Quoting Pat Chiko
Back to the basic Question How Long Will Your $1 Million Last in Retirement? With UK inflation rose from 6.2% in March to 7% this April. Energy cost is expect to rise 54%. CPI printing hard. £ in your wallet will keep worthiness a lot less. What r you going to do about it? As UK CPI hits 7% could the Bank of England hike 50bps in May? Look up the basket, it's pretty common knowledge, they change the items to manipulate the CPI, surely you see it in your own shopping, they do it in UK too. The interest rates should be sky high but that would cause...
We can never answer as we don't know what the future holds, I could retire now and just go on benefits and let the state look after me but that's no life (not for me anyway), sorry buddy just playing "devils advocate"
  • #77
  • Apr 13, 2022 6:03am Apr 13, 2022 6:03am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} USD CAD With some high impact news on CAD later, price may continue to rise. {image}

USD CAD

Carried forward from yesterday.

Bank of Canada expected to raise by 50bps today.
It'll be the first of the G7 to do so.

With News for CAD later may effect price

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ucad 003.jpg Size: 181 KB
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #78
  • Apr 13, 2022 6:19am Apr 13, 2022 6:19am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} We can never answer as we don't know what the future holds, I could retire now and just go on benefits and let the state look after me but that's no life (not for me anyway), sorry buddy just playing "devils advocate"


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Waveskie 3.jpg Size: 72 KB
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #79
  • Apr 13, 2022 6:31am Apr 13, 2022 6:31am
GOLD M15
long entry 1975.12 support.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cattura.PNG Size: 31 KB
  • #80
  • Edited 7:16am Apr 13, 2022 7:04am | Edited 7:16am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} USD CAD Carried forward from yesterday. Bank of Canada expected to raise by 50bps today. It'll be the first of the G7 to do so. With News for CAD later may effect price {image}
USD CAD

One spike to target for the News
Fundamental News on CAD/Loonie:
The BOC interest rate announcement and monetary policy report coming out today.
The bank previously raised its interest rate to 0.5%. Economists expect another rate hike today by half a percent.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ucad 005.jpg Size: 198 KB
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
0 traders viewing now