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The Swamp

  • #99,241
  • Apr 12, 2022 11:30am Apr 12, 2022 11:30am
I gotta run.0821 met 5 min requirements.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,242
  • Apr 12, 2022 11:32am Apr 12, 2022 11:32am
Quoting gatorinla
5 min at 0821 low, looks promising so far. {image}
the trend should be quite strong despite loosing momentum..
  • #99,243
  • Apr 12, 2022 11:46am Apr 12, 2022 11:46am
Quoting emmaelandi
{quote} i am really tired of this pair not being sure...i a still having my long and things dont look stable...we just need a sign of at least a pullback..
did you hold it below 0874? Go read the post. It said there's no support before 0835.5 area. The trend is down. If you plan to counter trend without closing when the little support breaks. than your giving away your money. Trading is a boring game of waiting.

I have a pattern that points to 0812. The trend is down. The only support that counts is 0833.5. And even now pa is below it. Its very easy to get burnt. Trading against the trend. You would do better waiting to short a bounce.

Why even consider trading 0833.5? Because the trend has to get past it. It will at some point. That point may be today. If i trade its smaller lots.

If you held longs under 0874 from above 0874. You gambled. Trading is unforgiving
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,244
  • Apr 12, 2022 12:05pm Apr 12, 2022 12:05pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} did you hold it below 0874? Go read the post. It said there's no support before 0835.5 area. The trend is down. If you plan to counter trend without closing when the little support breaks. than your giving away your money. Trading is a boring game of waiting. I have a pattern that points to 0812. The trend is down. The only support that counts is 0833.5. And even now pa is below it. Its very easy to get burnt. Trading against the trend. You would do better waiting to short a bounce. Why even consider trading 0833.5? Because the trend has...
Today is dollar 9th days green candles....unreal...
  • #99,245
  • Apr 12, 2022 12:26pm Apr 12, 2022 12:26pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} did you hold it below 0874? Go read the post. It said there's no support before 0835.5 area. The trend is down. If you plan to counter trend without closing when the little support breaks. than your giving away your money. Trading is a boring game of waiting. I have a pattern that points to 0812. The trend is down. The only support that counts is 0833.5. And even now pa is below it. Its very easy to get burnt. Trading against the trend. You would do better waiting to short a bounce. Why even consider trading 0833.5? Because the trend has...
thanks...a lot i held it at 0888..yes my main support that i considered was the 0872..just after my MAs showed some reveral at the around that area .my last support was 0835..
  • #99,246
  • Apr 12, 2022 12:48pm Apr 12, 2022 12:48pm
I'm still ok with my longs at 0852 and 0835. I have a little more confirmation for a reversal. I will give it more space before I convince to cut them. I may add 0815/7 if my reversal signs remain intact. I will try to keep at least 1/2 risk to reward. So If bulls not appear, my loss is under control.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #99,247
  • Apr 12, 2022 3:22pm Apr 12, 2022 3:22pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} did you hold it below 0874? Go read the post. It said there's no support before 0835.5 area. The trend is down. If you plan to counter trend without closing when the little support breaks. than your giving away your money. Trading is a boring game of waiting. I have a pattern that points to 0812. The trend is down. The only support that counts is 0833.5. And even now pa is below it. Its very easy to get burnt. Trading against the trend. You would do better waiting to short a bounce. Why even consider trading 0833.5? Because the trend has...
The day closed below 0835.5. I think it will take a larger time frame than a day. But the evidence is there for bears. The trend is down. The last day close is below 0835.
That dont change a wave up. It does decrease the chances some. For me Its hard to short here. Its hard to hold a long.

I have a long. I'm not comfortable with it. I should close it. Then wait to see if pa can close above .0835
I'm only long because of 0835.


It looks like I will be burned.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,248
  • Apr 12, 2022 3:27pm Apr 12, 2022 3:27pm
Quoting saninvestor
I'm still ok with my longs at 0852 and 0835. I have a little more confirmation for a reversal. I will give it more space before I convince to cut them. I may add 0815/7 if my reversal signs remain intact. I will try to keep at least 1/2 risk to reward. So If bulls not appear, my loss is under control.
If the atm low did hold. I set tp for 1002/03. Swing a little higher 105x ish. mid range 0995
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,249
  • Apr 12, 2022 3:53pm Apr 12, 2022 3:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If the atm low did hold. I set tp for 1002/03. Swing a little higher 105x ish. mid range 0995
See usdchf. Daily chart is interesting. It seems it set to drop some. It has -58% correlation with eu atm. I use it sometimes when I see some confusion on eu. Helps some.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #99,250
  • Apr 12, 2022 5:32pm Apr 12, 2022 5:32pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I have a pattern that points to 0812. The trend is down. The only support that counts is 0833.5. And even now pa is below it. Its very easy to get burnt. Trading against the trend. You would do better waiting to short a bounce. Why even consider trading 0833.5? Because the trend has...
I pulled 0812 out my head.. Looking at it again. the actual number being 1.0814. It has broke 0820 low now. The low atm at 1.0816. It bearish, sometimes after a target is reached it relaxes. Maybe after 0814 bears may take a break
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,251
  • Apr 12, 2022 5:57pm Apr 12, 2022 5:57pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I pulled 0812 out my head.. Looking at it again. the actual number being 1.0814. It has broke 0820 low now. The low atm at 1.0816. It bearish, sometimes after a target is reached it relaxes. Maybe after 0814 bears may take a break {image}
its hit 0814.. If it starts closing above 0835.5. It may be worth looking at. Still a falling knife. Its probably safer placing a pending short at 0995, Than to try to time a bounce.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,252
  • Apr 12, 2022 6:00pm Apr 12, 2022 6:00pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I pulled 0812 out my head.. Looking at it again. the actual number being 1.0814. It has broke 0820 low now. The low atm at 1.0816. It bearish, sometimes after a target is reached it relaxes. Maybe after 0814 bears may take a break {image}
Thank you for your thread see you next week. The EU, GU, EM,GM and UM trades went really well. The team of people that make this thread possible is amazing.
  • #99,253
  • Edited 6:45pm Apr 12, 2022 6:22pm | Edited 6:45pm
Subject to change. This post may relevant the next few weeks if the eu is to fall/range, it may pass above 0995+. If setting up a drop, or a range. Going back to 0995 covers both in my mind. A deeper drop now, and this may void both of these.

Personally i have been burned many times here. Trying to continue with profitable shorts, or adding new ones. In places like this. I rationalized it with "the trend is down" yadda yadda. I was right maybe 10/20% of the time. Not enough to cover the lost times.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,254
  • Apr 12, 2022 6:35pm Apr 12, 2022 6:35pm
Quoting q_import
{quote} Thank you for your thread see you next week. The EU, GU, EM,GM and UM trades went really well. The team of people that make this thread possible is amazing.
In 2008 it didnt bounce much. Most of the other times it did. If it dont make it back to 0995/99. This may be 2008/early 2009 like. If it does make it to 0995+. It may be a good place to look for a short.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,255
  • Apr 12, 2022 7:10pm Apr 12, 2022 7:10pm
1h engulfed. But pa is still below 0835.5. 0835.5 will be R till its not. ATm high 0835x. To get to norm, it has to pass 0835.5.. 0995/98 may attract pa now.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,256
  • Apr 12, 2022 8:01pm Apr 12, 2022 8:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
1h engulfed. But pa is still below 0835.5. 0835.5 will be R till its not. ATm high 0835x. To get to norm, it has to pass 0835.5.. 0995/98 may attract pa now. {image}
bears held the 1h close below 0835.5 after being above. She is trying to b/o.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,257
  • Apr 12, 2022 8:17pm Apr 12, 2022 8:17pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} bears held the 1h close below 0835.5 after being above. She is trying to b/o. {image}
st R at 0857. Bulls want a 0858 close st to go higher. But +0859.5 is a little better. With the trend being down 0860 close is a better sign. 0900.1+ better. Adr near the same spot 09001
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,258
  • Apr 12, 2022 9:09pm Apr 12, 2022 9:09pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} st R at 0857. Bulls want a 0858 close st to go higher. But +0859.5 is a little better. With the trend being down 0860 close is a better sign. 0900.1+ better. Adr near the same spot 09001
got a 1h close above 0835.5. Next h is a 4h. closing +0860 would be a good sign to follow up this close.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,259
  • Apr 12, 2022 9:26pm Apr 12, 2022 9:26pm
Quoting saninvestor
I'm still ok with my longs at 0852 and 0835. I have a little more confirmation for a reversal. I will give it more space before I convince to cut them. I may add 0815/7 if my reversal signs remain intact. I will try to keep at least 1/2 risk to reward. So If bulls not appear, my loss is under control.
Now I have average 0832 entry. I will not add more.
On m15 it may back to 0825/2 and then bounce to 0850. M15 is my first good reversal appointment. H4 is starting to make it. But it need much more time to do. I may cut the loss if price start closing below 0.790
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #99,260
  • Apr 12, 2022 10:27pm Apr 12, 2022 10:27pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} got a 1h close above 0835.5. Next h is a 4h. closing +0860 would be a good sign to follow up this close. {image}
the next h closed below 0835.5, it is a 4h close below. Next 4h close is a 12h close.
This 4h did engulf the previous.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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