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The Swamp

  • #99,181
  • Apr 12, 2022 4:22am Apr 12, 2022 4:22am
My morning music...beautiful places....
Inserted Video
  • #99,182
  • Apr 12, 2022 4:42am Apr 12, 2022 4:42am
FYI
FX option expiries for April 12 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.
- EUR/USD: EUR amounts

  1. 1.0800 313M
  2. 1.0830 226M
  3. 1.0925-30 437M
  4. 1.1000 325M

- GBP/USD: GBP amounts

  1. 1.3100-05 810M

- USD/CHF: USD amounts

  1. 0.9355 310M

- AUD/USD: AUD amounts

  1. 0.7400 726M
  2. 0.7600 366M

- NZD/USD: NZD amounts

  1. 0.6850 304M

- USD/CAD: USD amounts

  1. 1.2500-10 570M
  2. 1.2585 310M
  3. 1.2650 1.51B

  • #99,183
  • Apr 12, 2022 5:08am Apr 12, 2022 5:08am
think about this froim a trading view for the ammount of traders and traders that are in line with this.

imagine the move against

Gloom. Global growth optimism is at an all-time low, with recession fears surging, the latest BofA fund manager survey shows. The share of investors expecting the economy to deteriorate is the most ever, while stagflation expectations jumped to the highest since August 2008. The Peterson Institute for International Economics also sounded the alarm, saying the risk of a global recession by year-end is climbing.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #99,184
  • Apr 12, 2022 5:11am Apr 12, 2022 5:11am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/p...rain-rcna17853 Cry baby threatens the world with nukes. Another unstable nut. One of his generals should end this with fast moving lead. No doubt a purge of his generals may come. Schizophrenia ? The guy is delusional, a rant calling the Jewish president a Nazi. Someone is off his meds. Even the RT (Communist lovers) network in the U.S. is reporting it. https://www.foxnews.com/world/putin-...-on-high-alert...
Wow,, I'm so surprised. It happens for all autocrats, The walls are closing. Sadly Ukraine will be put through hell on earth. Until this piece of shit is gone.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and...g-inner-circle
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,185
  • Apr 12, 2022 5:27am Apr 12, 2022 5:27am
Doing a little math. I know all the grim news about Ukraine is going on. i dont want to underplay the suffering. From a objective point of view. Does anyone remember the 40 mile long convoy, and the pictures of it? Remember how close the vehicles were to each other. I commented on that stupidity (ducks in a row). Now they have a 8 mile convoy. If you saw the pictures. You will see some good spacing between them this time. At first look you will think the Russians learned.

I notice something different. In 40 miles there was a concentration of tanks (they were close, much more tanks). At 8 miles there's a very noticeable dilution. {less tanks) just using the 40 miles and dividing it by 8 miles. That puts it at 20% of the force from earlier. That's w/o deducting the concentration. The spacing is probably another 20% of what it was before. Did the Russians lose far above 80% of those tanks and personal? It seems they did.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,186
  • Apr 12, 2022 5:43am Apr 12, 2022 5:43am
Quoting Boulder
My morning music...beautiful places.... https://youtu.be/mB1-XWQ9Bzs
not aggressive trading...little scalp shorts this morning while waiting for US inflation news..
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  • #99,187
  • Apr 12, 2022 5:47am Apr 12, 2022 5:47am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} not aggressive trading...little scalp shorts this morning while waiting US inflation news.. {image}
I knocked 5 times. Check the email I sent a new one.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,188
  • Apr 12, 2022 6:20am Apr 12, 2022 6:20am
Quoting saninvestor
Added long 868. I need 899 to close some. 921 is enough. But I may hold for higher.
Closed with some loss. PA favors bears atm. I will try lower if drop.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #99,189
  • Apr 12, 2022 6:38am Apr 12, 2022 6:38am
feel bad for the unfortunate...EMs.. food crisis is going to get worse...
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  • #99,190
  • Apr 12, 2022 6:47am Apr 12, 2022 6:47am
Quoting gatorinla
I left a few pending L 0795/0817... Playing the rest by ear. Leaving some shorts in case of rise on the edges also 1064 1010 0995. Starting at 0, whatever level its at, at news release. Bears would need to take -0835.5, hold it, and close below it. on the larger tf. Today being Tuesday, not much in the large category for a while. Until, I will play it like a range. That dont mean it cant get into 07xx, even 0660/61. Then come right back to 0835.5. eventually that's to be expected. Before that, I think 0995/1010 may attract. Into the range above...
I lowered my longs further, just in case. I dont know where the money sits. But I think below 0800.. It should be below the 0805 low. I have a minor decade fib at 0788. After the dust settles. If pa gets back above 0835.5. it may go up to clean house before a drop. Just speculation of course. I want to sell bounces over buying. Any long i have will be tiny. At most maybe 1/4 % risk.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,191
  • Apr 12, 2022 6:57am Apr 12, 2022 6:57am
Quoting Boulder
feel bad for the unfortunate...EMs.. food crisis is going to get worse... {image}
Exactly what i keep saying. A food deficit, is terrible for the food inflation. We already have. Ir will be compounded by a strong usd. Third world nations will have little money for discretionary spending. Rich countries will have less money to spend on discretionary purchases. China will have less export income. Europe luxury items will sell less around the world.
Less export income for China means less jobs needed. It means less oil needed. The circle of life. Prices for most things will fall except food. Farmers will rush to grow wheat. They will plant less soybean for animal feed. Animal feed will rise. To curve the higher feed cost breeders will be killed. Laying hens, large pigs. cows. This will produce shortages in eggs and meat. Driving the prices higher. Bank on it. More food inflation. Until this all settles out. Less discretionary spending even longer.

The collateral damage of Ukraine. Is starvation for other countries. Even China in that article I posted a while back was having problems before the war. Chinese leaders with 1.4 billion people are worried. Russia could possibly cause a uprise in China where leadership can change.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,192
  • Apr 12, 2022 6:58am Apr 12, 2022 6:58am
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  • #99,193
  • Apr 12, 2022 7:03am Apr 12, 2022 7:03am
Quoting saninvestor
{quote} Closed with some loss. PA favors bears atm. I will try lower if drop.
My stops were hit a little below 0874.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,194
  • Apr 12, 2022 7:11am Apr 12, 2022 7:11am
US inflation news coming up in 20 mins.. for me if M15 can close above 0875. be careful of shorting. if H1 can close above 0890..I may pause shorts.. I may long at 0830s area or lower for quick scalps, RU S2 0849 and S3 0822.. let see Eur may reach these levels
datapoints atm...
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  • #99,195
  • Apr 12, 2022 7:18am Apr 12, 2022 7:18am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} My stops were hit a little below 0874.
Here is too low for me to short. I know every short has better chance to make money at this super bearish market. btw, I'm not scalper. I usually trade over 100 pips on eu. So personally I have to look for a long on this support based on my system. If I get a buy signal, I will try. If I get a sell signal, I will Ignore. I need at lease 100 pips distance from a good support to get into a short.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #99,196
  • Apr 12, 2022 7:25am Apr 12, 2022 7:25am
Quoting Boulder
US inflation news coming up in 20 mins.. for me if M15 can close above 0875. be careful of shorting. if H1 can close above 0890..I may pause shorts.. I may long at 0830s area or lower for quick scalps, RU S2 0849 and S3 0822.. let see Eur may reach these levels datapoints atm... {image}
i think if the number is really bad. it may continue.

anything in line "should" help eur
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #99,197
  • Apr 12, 2022 7:37am Apr 12, 2022 7:37am
Snooze fest
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,198
  • Apr 12, 2022 7:37am Apr 12, 2022 7:37am
took profits in gold
this time
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #99,199
  • Apr 12, 2022 7:40am Apr 12, 2022 7:40am
Quoting saninvestor
{quote} pending 852, 835
lets see if you get that wave to 1.10x
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,200
  • Apr 12, 2022 7:42am Apr 12, 2022 7:42am
Quoting DMA Trader
took profits in gold this time {image}
some longs on the news small but 890 strong resistance

there is no way i am shorting above 890 -
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
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