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  • #10,321
  • Apr 6, 2022 5:32pm Apr 6, 2022 5:32pm
wouldn't be surprised if it bounces from this area. doesn't seem to have a clear direction. will see if it retests the lows
  • #10,322
  • Apr 7, 2022 2:55am Apr 7, 2022 2:55am
Quoting Temujin
{quote} Wow, another segment downward for sure to that $95 zone. SPR release and Shanghai lockdown is taking effect already.
$97 holding up pretty well so far, certainly not out of the woods yet, before next leg up.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
  • #10,323
  • Apr 7, 2022 3:12am Apr 7, 2022 3:12am
Keeping it real.

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"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
  • #10,324
  • Apr 7, 2022 7:14am Apr 7, 2022 7:14am
Price broke trendline
down to ~95 and re-tested ~98.
Going towards 104 or 87?

TRENDS
Daily SMA20 104.14
Daily SMA50 98.31
Daily SMA100 86.95
Daily SMA200 80.36
  • #10,325
  • Apr 7, 2022 2:59pm Apr 7, 2022 2:59pm
WTI broke lower and appears to have bounced in $93 area, question is are the bears done or do the bulls have a new target to end the week.
  • #10,326
  • Apr 7, 2022 5:08pm Apr 7, 2022 5:08pm
Quoting Kwame Freder
WTI broke lower and appears to have bounced in $93 area, question is are the bears done or do the bulls have a new target to end the week.
$90?

https://www.investing.com/analysis/w...-oil-200621782

She says $95 but fundamentals are bearish. This is the 1st week we have seen an inventory build-up and not a draw down.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,327
  • Apr 7, 2022 8:39pm Apr 7, 2022 8:39pm
Up tp $100, then back to $95 past 24 hrs, no damage, currently $97, up slightly from this time yesterday (or thereabouts). Tenuous.

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"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
  • #10,328
  • Apr 8, 2022 1:34am Apr 8, 2022 1:34am
Fun Friday.

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"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
  • #10,329
  • Apr 8, 2022 4:05am Apr 8, 2022 4:05am
Quoting Kwame Freder
WTI broke lower and appears to have bounced in $93 area, question is are the bears done or do the bulls have a new target to end the week.
More weakness in near term imo.
My shorts are active.
TP set was 93 but missed by 44pips. Added a few more trades, would be great to dive and finish off the week bearish.
  • #10,330
  • Edited 7:59am Apr 8, 2022 4:20am | Edited 7:59am
Quoting Temujin
{quote} $90? https://www.investing.com/analysis/w...-oil-200621782 She says $95 but fundamentals are bearish. This is the 1st week we have seen an inventory build-up and not a draw down.
Agree, even lower 87, Fib 61.80%.
Nothing is for sure but possible.
  • #10,331
  • Apr 8, 2022 8:22am Apr 8, 2022 8:22am
Quoting Jolita
{quote} More weakness in near term imo. My shorts are active. TP set was 93 but missed by 44pips. Added a few more trades, would be great to dive and finish off the week bearish.
yes it would certainly seem so. every up move has zero follow through suggesting another push down may be in the cards. will we get it today probably or early next week. we shall see
  • #10,332
  • Apr 8, 2022 8:41am Apr 8, 2022 8:41am
Quoting Kwame Freder
{quote} yes it would certainly seem so. every up move has zero follow through suggesting another push down may be in the cards. will we get it today probably or early next week. we shall see

The sentiment for energy turned upside down atm.
More and more countries are getting independent from Russian gas.
UK propose plans to build 8 nuclear power reactors.
Germany will be ending contracts with Russia in August.
  • #10,333
  • Apr 8, 2022 6:43pm Apr 8, 2022 6:43pm
Quoting Jolita
{quote} The sentiment for energy turned upside down atm. More and more countries are getting independent from Russian gas. UK propose plans to build 8 nuclear power reactors. Germany will be ending contracts with Russia in August.
This is the great thing about trading oil guys; even on the way down there are so many bounces. Like a beach ball under water it pops back up faster than FOREX, Indexes or Metals. I've learned the instrument you trade is a MAJOR factor in your success as a trader. Have a good weekend all.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,334
  • Apr 9, 2022 6:53am Apr 9, 2022 6:53am
Quoting Temujin
{quote} This is the great thing about trading oil guys; even on the way down there are so many bounces. Like a beach ball under water it pops back up faster than FOREX, Indexes or Metals. I've learned the instrument you trade is a MAJOR factor in your success as a trader. Have a good weekend all.
Oil is driven by geopolitical news, seasaw effect. High volatility, high risk. If you have a good understanding how it works, along with good strategy, you can make excellent returns.

Not large reduction, but some longs are taken off the table by money managers. Long to short trade ratio change 4:1.

Sharing:
Money managers reduced their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 4,787 contracts to 253,121 in the week ending April 5
Long-only positions fell by 6,539
Short-only positions fell by 1,752
other reportables net-length fell by 1,568
  • #10,335
  • Apr 9, 2022 6:15pm Apr 9, 2022 6:15pm
Quoting Jolita
{quote} Oil is driven by geopolitical news, seasaw effect. High volatility, high risk. If you have a good understanding how it works, along with good strategy, you can make excellent returns. Not large reduction, but some longs are taken off the table by money managers. Long to short trade ratio change 4:1. Sharing: Money managers reduced their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 4,787 contracts to 253,121 in the week ending April 5 Long-only positions fell by 6,539 Short-only positions fell by 1,752 other reportables net-length fell...
The SPR release is cutting into the draw downs now but support is always nearby. Thanks for the data, every bit helps.
I think oil floats up in price and then down TUE night before IAE inventories WED. Then a buying opportunity again Friday.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,336
  • Apr 9, 2022 9:23pm Apr 9, 2022 9:23pm
Quoting Temujin
{quote} The SPR release is cutting into the draw downs now but support is always nearby. Thanks for the data, every bit helps. I think oil floats up in price and then down TUE night before IAE inventories WED. Then a buying opportunity again Friday.
Interesting comment, $96/7 has been a strong support, albeit turbulent, expectations were to slump latter part of last week. If you think rise in interim prior late Tues and later in week, often go in now, might just keep going, can always take a some off the table later. : )

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"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
  • #10,337
  • Apr 10, 2022 4:32pm Apr 10, 2022 4:32pm
$92 to $94 then $97 resistance level.
IEA just added 60 million barrels on top of the 180 Million from the U.S. SPR. Yes we are going lower this week.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,338
  • Apr 10, 2022 7:57pm Apr 10, 2022 7:57pm
Bit of a dip this morning post open, trusting support holds around $96/.60.

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"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
  • #10,339
  • Apr 10, 2022 8:17pm Apr 10, 2022 8:17pm
A200 going a bit ballistic atm, divergence re US30 futs, don't know why, find out a bit later I guess..with eyes on US30 futs.

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"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
  • #10,340
  • Apr 10, 2022 8:31pm Apr 10, 2022 8:31pm
Quoting yani38
A200 going a bit ballistic atm, divergence re US30 futs, don't know why, find out a bit later I guess..with eyes on US30 futs. {image}
The FTSE and DAX futures started in the green. If they remain positive at the NY close there is a great chance the U.S. indexes close green also. CPI for March on TUE. I think up from now and then the market is about to get WREKT upon that release. It will only cement a 50 basis point raise in May.
Be humble or be humbled.
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