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Trading with Volume and maybe a horizontal line

  • #121
  • Mar 12, 2022 8:52am Mar 12, 2022 8:52am
Quoting PranithR
EA short: Taken after clean price rejection at yesterdays HV close and weakness on 15min chart failed test {image}
And it amazes me how these fib numbers work in defining targets. Clean rejection of previous days HV close and simultaneously -23% fib, and reached -38.2 level. where I closed.
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  • #122
  • Mar 17, 2022 5:11am Mar 17, 2022 5:11am
Dont kill my Uj shorts Anotan. Im against your EU short
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  • #123
  • Mar 17, 2022 8:16am Mar 17, 2022 8:16am
Quoting PranithR
Dont kill my Uj shorts Anotan. Im against your EU short {image}
Taken out with -12pips, Hope ll get better entry next time
Learning is a never ending Journey
  • #124
  • Mar 17, 2022 9:26am Mar 17, 2022 9:26am
Quoting PranithR
Dont kill my Uj shorts Anotan. Im against your EU short {image}
I've been staying away from the xxx/jpy pairs for a few days since they took off in an aggressive rally. HVC doesn't do as well in trending markets as it does in ranging markets. Look at your D1/H4 charts and see whats to the left. If you can look back 2-3 months and see nothing, maybe look for something else? EA was the same situation when it was in a free fall a few weeks back.

EU/UC/AU plenty of PA to the left.


On UJ there was some nice expansion volume on that up thrust from today's Asia session. I would've tried to wait for price to come up there for shorts, by waiting for the higher price I might miss the move. On the other hand not waiting runs the risk of getting stopped out and having to re enter at the upper level which re entering skews your RR.
  • #125
  • Mar 17, 2022 10:32am Mar 17, 2022 10:32am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} I've been staying away from the xxx/jpy pairs for a few days since they took off in an aggressive rally. HVC doesn't do as well in trending markets as it does in ranging markets. Look at your D1/H4 charts and see whats to the left. If you can look back 2-3 months and see nothing, maybe look for something else? EA was the same situation when it was in a free fall a few weeks back. EU/UC/AU plenty of PA to the left. On UJ there was some nice expansion volume on that up thrust from today's Asia session. I would've tried to wait for price to...
Noted with thanks Anotan. thanks for pointing out.
Learning is a never ending Journey
  • #126
  • Apr 6, 2022 10:35am Apr 6, 2022 10:35am
Ended up taking short on AJ. It's a counter trade so I'm not sure how far I can take this in a retracement. 28 march HVC up bar acted as resistance, yesterday's HVC and today's home session expansion volume all lined up and price showed weakness through upthrusts, I could have entered early.
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  • #127
  • Apr 6, 2022 11:01am Apr 6, 2022 11:01am
Quoting PranithR
Ended up taking short on AJ. It's a counter trade so I'm not sure how far I can take this in a retracement. 28 march HVC up bar acted as resistance, yesterday's HVC and today's home session expansion volume all lined up and price showed weakness through upthrusts, I could have entered early. {image}
Happy it worked out for you, I saw that setup but passed on it.

Looking at the other JPY pairs, the volume was mixed today in Asia. On M15 at 3:00 the volume looks bullish but going up to H1 the PA looks bearish which means a messy day.
  • #128
  • Apr 7, 2022 8:11am Apr 7, 2022 8:11am
In USDCAD long. M30 expansion volume seems more supporting price.
actually, I fear taking long after a move happens. On a weekly chart price takes out the $ of relative lows of Jan 16 and 23 and heading up, weekly charts show me ranging so I'm assuming price could move to range high.
what's ur opinion on this anotan. I'm not that good at reading higher timeframe charts though.
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  • #129
  • Apr 7, 2022 5:41pm Apr 7, 2022 5:41pm
Quoting PranithR
In USDCAD long. M30 expansion volume seems more supporting price. actually, I fear taking long after a move happens. On a weekly chart price takes out the $ of relative lows of Jan 16 and 23 and heading up, weekly charts show me ranging so I'm assuming price could move to range high. what's ur opinion on this anotan. I'm not that good at reading higher timeframe charts though. {image}
It was a great trade, you had a few things going for you.

The day after FOMC, it really pays to find a trend trade, basically buy above the daily open. Second is that there is a ton of strength on UCAD, the dips in price on Mar 30th and April 5th were very bullish. The volume on those spikes down is a little lacking, but when those spikes actually occurred price was moving very quickly. Its one of those things you had to have been actually watching the pair to see. If you're watching a pair and start to notice that price is moving quickly or you see price jumping I.E. price starts jumping in 3-5 pip blocks, then you know professional money was active on that bar and that they will defend that bar.

As far as higher time frames, I don't really look at weekly, I do look at daily. For example if you see obvious strength like a test or shakeout then look for buys above the daily open.

Quoting PranithR
I fear taking long after a move happens.
This was something that is hard to break, I still catch myself falling into this trap. There really is no such thing as over bought/over sold, you have to follow what PA is showing you no matter what the conditions are. I remember a day in 2020, UJ had been trending up all day and was at 400% of the ADR, I saw an obvious opportunity to go long so I did. IIRC that day UJ closed at 500% of the ADR.
  • #130
  • Apr 8, 2022 3:11am Apr 8, 2022 3:11am
Quick hit and run on EA.

Nice setup though, during Asia found some stopping volume into the HVC, supply kept hitting the market every time price tried to rally but at the same time kept finding support off the HVC.

I tried something new with using the H1 home session as the fib bar.
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  • #131
  • Apr 8, 2022 3:29am Apr 8, 2022 3:29am
cheers, I took same trade but entered late. still holding it. HV supply hitting the market I'll put stops at BE
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  • #132
  • Apr 8, 2022 3:35am Apr 8, 2022 3:35am
Quoting PranithR
cheers, I took same trade but entered late. still holding it. HV supply hitting the market I'll put stops at BE {image}
You're going to be a professional trader in no time..

The only thing is also right now price is at the low of yesterday's highest volume bar, at least take a partial.
  • #133
  • Apr 8, 2022 3:41am Apr 8, 2022 3:41am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} You're going to be a professional trader in no time.. The only thing is also right now price is at the low of yesterday's highest volume bar, at least take a partial.
I want to thank you for clearing all my doubts. Still, a long way to go. thanks, Anotan.
Learning is a never ending Journey
  • #134
  • Apr 8, 2022 3:47am Apr 8, 2022 3:47am
Quoting PranithR
{quote} I want to thank you for clearing all my doubts. Still, a long way to go. thanks, Anotan.
Happy to help, I had to struggle through all this on my own.

Don't forget you can look back 2-3 days, I wouldn't go back more than 3 days though. A lot of it if just watching PA and if you see something interesting, look to see if it lines up with a HVC.
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  • #135
  • Edited 5:31am Apr 8, 2022 3:53am | Edited 5:31am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} You're going to be a professional trader in no time.. The only thing is also right now price is at the low of yesterday's highest volume bar, at least take a partial.
I remember you saying One Hv bar cannot change the perspective it's a process. If I'm in a long trade and I see the HV supply bar hitting, I look for the next bar If it's a down bar then I take some partials and stops at BE. If next bar is the Up bar I look for more PA.
Learning is a never ending Journey
  • #136
  • Edited 8:25am Apr 8, 2022 6:32am | Edited 8:25am
We have CAD news coming out in an hour, going to play the news which means I may get whipsawed out.

Weakness turned support and a low volume test. See if I can TP a position at 2630 and hold the other two, lots of strength on UC.

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Took a bit to move up, not much reaction out of the CAD news, I think the USD news drove it up. Closed a partial at 2615 and moved stops up to 2595, just under the H1 up thrust, trade is close to virtual break even. If you struggle with stop loss placement, look for trapped buyers/sellers. People will always blindly trade pin bars, so price will trigger them in and trap them in a bad position for as long as possible, which makes those pin bars great places for stops.

Holding over the weekend, think has a chance of running.

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  • #137
  • Edited 9:16am Apr 8, 2022 9:04am | Edited 9:16am
Quoting Anotan
We have CAD news coming out in an hour, going to play the news which means I may get whipsawed out. Weakness turned support and a low volume test. See if I can TP a position at 2630 and hold the other two, lots of strength on UC. {image} Took a bit to move up, not much reaction out of the CAD news, I think the USD news drove it up. Closed a partial at 2615 and moved stops up to 2595, just under the H1 up thrust, trade is close to virtual break even. If you struggle with stop loss placement, look for trapped buyers/sellers. People will always blindly...
Thanks for sharing. I didn't see the news but Im still riding my yesterday's long
Learning is a never ending Journey
  • #138
  • Edited 8:57am Apr 9, 2022 12:08am | Edited 8:57am
AJ: not sure in which way it wants to go. HVC from Wednesday looks more resistant to price going up. Looking for shorts next week. Looks like professionals absorbing all the buys coming from that ultra-wide range bar from 05(Tuesday).
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  • #139
  • Apr 10, 2022 5:35am Apr 10, 2022 5:35am
Quoting PranithR
AJ: not sure in which way it wants to go. HVC from Wednesday looks more resistant to price going up. Looking for shorts next week. Looks like professionals absorbing all the buys coming from that ultra-wide range bar from 05(Tuesday). {image}
I wouldn't get caught up in trying to anticipate what price will do in the future.

Watch current PA and see if it lines up with any HVCs, VSA is really about following what the market is doing right now. HVC helps eliminate a lot of the noise, but it does have its weaknesses. You've already seen that you miss out on aggressive trends like we've been seeing, it provides a lot more setups during ranging times.
  • #140
  • Apr 11, 2022 3:05am Apr 11, 2022 3:05am
Long on EU daily, probably hold for a few days.
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