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95% of the time Price will close above or below the open price

  • #161
  • Aug 7, 2020 9:14am Aug 7, 2020 9:14am
Thanks for your contribution but what is the connection with the thread subject?
He is talking about probability between open/close in a single bar.
Your analysis can be very good (I don't know) and maybe needs a dedicated thread.
Cheers
  • #162
  • Aug 7, 2020 7:56pm Aug 7, 2020 7:56pm
Quoting Merka
Thanks for your contribution but what is the connection with the thread subject? He is talking about probability between open/close in a single bar. Your analysis can be very good (I don't know) and maybe needs a dedicated thread. Cheers

post 1, first 2 sentences....it applies to bars of any timeframe, not just daily bars

I believe it was Jesse Livermore who said something to the effect, "I could place every detail of my strategy on the front page of the NYTimes, and very few people would be able to make money out of it".
  • #163
  • Aug 7, 2020 8:05pm Aug 7, 2020 8:05pm
Quoting Le.Metier
{quote} post 1, first 2 sentences....it applies to bars of any timeframe, not just daily bars I believe it was Jesse Livermore who said something to the effect, "I could place every detail of my strategy on the front page of the NYTimes, and very few people would be able to make money out of it".
What i see on your chart is a consolidation then a breakout and advancing prices many times when prices breakout what happens in your chart is not the case
  • #164
  • Aug 7, 2020 8:07pm Aug 7, 2020 8:07pm
Quoting Frag8383
{quote} What i see on your chart is a consolidation then a breakout and advancing prices many times when prices breakout what happens in your chart is not the case
the chart does not show the entry trigger, it is for demonstrating the sequence of HH.HL, and where to place orders and how to move them

as stated on the chart, the entry trigger you will have to figure out for yourself
  • #165
  • Aug 24, 2021 7:06pm Aug 24, 2021 7:06pm
Does anyone know of an indicator that alerts when a price candle has been on one side of the open only?
  • #166
  • Apr 5, 2022 9:24pm Apr 5, 2022 9:24pm
Quoting Hurst
This method is not magic, it is only a way to look at the oldest edge in the book and that is the trend. The opening price principle was coined by a bankrupt Larry Pesavento a so called trading tutor. The same guy that took an idea from Gartley and corrupted it so badly it fails to work more often than not. Forget it being anything but a way to look at a trend. Simply ask the question is the market going up or down, then mark the open for the day on the chart. In an uptrend, look to buy the open. In a down trend look to sell the open You...
Amazing that search for Opening Price Principle and this is the only mention on FF.

Larry is still solvent, as far as I know, he just held a joint seminar in London with Al Brooks and Tom Hougaard.

In fact, he gave that 20-year book away for free, no, I wasn't there, that's the power of the internet folks.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #167
  • Apr 7, 2022 3:03am Apr 7, 2022 3:03am
Quoting strbac
"95% of the time Price will close either above or below the opening price. Less than 5% of the time, Price will close at its opening price. Within this truth lies the pot of gold." This statement has changed the way I look at the markets and charts forever. When I first read this it was the greatest enlightenment I ever had about trading. Most people do not see the enormous edge in this statement. How can we apply this to actual trading? The above statement is equivalent to: Price will always move away from any given reference point. Price will...


I also try to trade based on trend. I believe in price action trading and always focus on support and resistance level. I went through your comment and saw you preferred open price as an entry point. But the open price doesn’t seem to be a valid data to me. I understood your entry point and I am really confused about your exit point. Would you please let me know about your exit point target?
  • #168
  • Apr 9, 2022 5:29am Apr 9, 2022 5:29am
Quoting Siongfx
{quote} I also try to trade based on trend. I believe in price action trading and always focus on support and resistance level. I went through your comment and saw you preferred open price as an entry point. But the open price doesn’t seem to be a valid data to me. I understood your entry point and I am really confused about your exit point. Would you please let me know about your exit point target?
Where did I say that?

The comment is directly from the book by Larry Pesavento as credited in the screenshot.

Oh, maybe where I said "I'm interested in the weekly Open"

That doesn't mean for entry, it relates to his comment which applies to the daily open, and stocks I believe.

I want to use it as a guide to trading Forex on a 4-Hour chart, week by week.

And that was only my initial observation, here is a chart with further analysis.

Pay attention to the Weekly Open...

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #169
  • Last Post: Edited 6:34am Sep 30, 2025 6:19am | Edited 6:34am
"95% of the time Price will close either above or below the opening price. Less than 5% of the time, Price will close at its opening price. Within this truth lies the pot of gold."

When they popped that 2nd zero on the roulette wheel it's virtually the same odds -

Green = doji = 2/38 = 5.26%
Black = Up = 18/38 = 47.37%
Red = Down = 18/38 = 47.37%

sooooooo.. unless we spot a "biased wheel" it's all just random

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