Carbon System - Signal available 102% average yearly return

Finally after many many months of design, build and testing, I am releasing my signal on MQL5 signals site;
https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/1465483

I obviously won't be spilling my secret sauce here, but I will describe the basics of the system:

1) Uses larger timeframe (H4) for more reliable trading signals - This system will not work on irrational smaller timeframes, so don't ask
2) It has been optimized for EUR/USD only - I am working on modified signals for other pairs
3) Averages around 35 trades per year - yes that is all... We don't need a million trades to earn big. Sniper focused
4) Small leverage at 100:1

The long term returns are consistent and very reasonable. With 35 trades per year, do NOT expect 20% gain per month!! On that point, when you find that system please let me know. Check out the yearly returns for the best performing hedge funds, then compare to this:

Yearly return:
2017 +131% (max DD was 23.93%)
2018 +46% (max DD was 56.14%)
2019 +50% (max DD was 25.60%)
2020 +200% (max DD was 27.33%)
2021 +82% (max DD was 15.11%)

You can see the full backtest results using tick data here;
https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/1465483

If I had invested £1,000 in Jan 2017, by Dec 2021 that £1,000 would have turned into £27,621...

I do not have huge funds to invest into my trading account right now, so that is the reason I am publishing the signal. Plus I feel it is returning something to the community. We are all looking for a consistent system over the long term. This is just that.

The signal has only just gone live, with no trading history in MQL5, so the monthly price is set to $30. After 6 months the price will be increasing for new subscribers to reflect the system performance. For anyone who subscribes before 6 months, I will keep the price the same

Wow, scary drawdown, there: over 50%?!

But only if you'd decided not to let a drawdown of over 50% in 2018 stop you from trading it?

Would you really continue trading it, after that?

Or would you draw on your great experience of these things and appreciate that a system that has a drawdown of over 50% one year will eventually have a drawdown of over 90% at some point?

I don't blame you.

With those ultra-high-risk results, I'd also rather sell it than trade it myself.

Good luck.

I'd actually say this signal has a 15-25% ish max DD, with an odd outlier that went over 50%. It was still a 46% return year... The other 4 years show a reasonable drawdown.

If you prefer lower risk, then I have a more conservative version currently being back tested. Initial estimates show around 15% profit on a 10-20% max DD per annum. Clearly potential gains much less, but also lower risk.

I'm open about the risk element, not hiding anything here. Overall I think the "medium-high" risk version available provides a decent opportunity.

[quote=KarlKraus;13956754]{quote} Wow, scary drawdown, there: over 50%?! {quote} But only if you'd decided not to let a drawdown of over 50% in 2018 stop you from trading it? Would you really continue trading it, after that? Or would you draw on your great experience of these things and appreciate that a system that has a drawdown of over 50% one year will eventually have a drawdown of over 90% at some point? {quote}

Your aversion to risk is a fair point. As promised here are the performance stats from the "low-risk" version of the method. You will see the number of trades is the same. The method is reliable and is the same for both medium and low risk versions. The difference is the lot sizing by percentage of account equity.

Results:

Yearly return:
2017 +26% (max DD was 6.16%)
2018 +13% (max DD was 17.42%)
2019 +13% (max DD was 9.47%)
2020 +35% (max DD was 12.41%)
2021 +19% (max DD was 7.5%)

For those looking for a lower risk /lower return system, this is proven over 5 years.
Again, compare these results to well known hedge funds and index trackers etc.

Will be adding a signal to MQL5.com soon.

Happy to discuss further here.