Disliked{quote} COT report this week for Mar 23 to Mar 29, hedge funds cashed out some Eur shorts on its way down to 1.0945 low on 28th , and booked more longs on its way up to 1.1137 high on 29th , net longs reduced by 2,469 contracts {image}Ignored
Th q closed below large levels 1208 1088 1080. But it closed above 0835. It may get into a summer range. Between 1208 and the 08xx low. PA was rejected from 1150. That to me should bring it back to 0995. If it starts closing below 0995. The range could be 0995/08xx low (or LL). If above 0995 the range could be the upper 1150/0995. All with closes of course using 0995 as a pp. If pa starts closing above 1150. Bulls are likely to gain some rise. Below 0995 with closes favors a low test and maybe a LL. It being summer war, energy, food shortage, inflation to me favors the usd. The U.S. unlike most countries has readily energy, can grow all its own food, has raw materials, military, increased demand from Europe for arms, and has a consumer base to support itself.
I favor the downside, A gap open below 1042 favors bears. More so gapping below 1034. The Friday close at 1045.3. Friday 1042 and 34 were rejected. So it could bounce to test 1064 (Q1066) 1080 1088 or even 1106. If pa does find 1106 and is quickly rejected back below 1064. That's probably a bearish sign. That's a 42 pip drop. A short pending at 1106 in case. May use 42+a little as a stop. Or 1/2 of that. just to catch a fly ball. A smaller lot at extremes can pay more/with less risk.
Over all things look bearish till 0995/08xx. Once pa starts closing below 0995. That helps a drop. Friday's drop was still 30 pips from 0995. Start closing the larger time frames below 09001. That may trigger a test of 0835 or more.
When a close is needed somewhere that goes w/o saying. Its a s/R. A bounce can happen at those points.
Good luck
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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