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The Swamp

  • #98,241
  • Mar 30, 2022 2:39am Mar 30, 2022 2:39am
yen still has room to the downside I suspect...
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #98,242
  • Mar 30, 2022 2:56am Mar 30, 2022 2:56am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} If this Eur can come back again at 1135, , and at 1150.. I will go all in to short Eur...... I didn't pay attention to day downtrend stop 1138 before, which bears held..
Shorted once close to it.. booked.. still waiting on others
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  • #98,243
  • Mar 30, 2022 3:05am Mar 30, 2022 3:05am
not gonna do much today

ESF going down
oil gold up not sure why

so we are not into a perfect risk on scenario

EUR/USD rejected the highs again . no longs until we close above

no shorts unless we take out 1.105

so a day of politics or swimming
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #98,244
  • Mar 30, 2022 3:07am Mar 30, 2022 3:07am
Quoting DMA Trader
not gonna do much today ESF going down oil gold up not sure why so we are not into a perfect risk on scenario EUR/USD rejected the highs again . no longs until we close above no shorts unless we take out 1.105 so a day of politics or swimming
month end rebalancing
  • #98,245
  • Mar 30, 2022 3:09am Mar 30, 2022 3:09am
FX option expiries for March 30 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.
- EUR/USD: EUR amounts

  1. 1.1000 2.44b
  2. 1.1050-60 1.8b
  3. 1.1100 2.17b
  4. 1.1150-55 1.36b
  5. 1.1195-00 1.64b

- USD/JPY: USD amounts

  1. 122.00 690m
  2. 122.50 250m
  3. 122.90 1b

- GBP/USD: GBP amounts

  1. 1.3100 630m

- AUD/USD: AUD amounts

  1. 0.7600 360m

- USD/CAD: USD amounts

  1. 1.2450 550m
  2. 1.2475 350m
  3. 1.2500 718m
  4. 1.2525 730m
  5. 1.2550 317m

- USD/CHF: USD amounts

  1. 0.9240 360m
  2. 0.9250 280m
  3. 0.9350 200m

- EUR/CHF: EUR amounts

  1. 1.0340 952m


Information on these pages contains forward-l

  • #98,246
  • Mar 30, 2022 3:15am Mar 30, 2022 3:15am
Quoting Boulder
FX option expiries for March 30 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1000 2.44b 1.1050-60 1.8b 1.1100 2.17b 1.1150-55 1.36b 1.1195-00 1.64b - USD/JPY: USD amounts 122.00 690m 122.50 250m 122.90 1b - GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.3100 630m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.7600 360m - USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.2450 550m 1.2475 350m 1.2500 718m 1.2525 730m 1.2550 317m - USD/CHF: USD amounts 0.9240 360m 0.9250 280m 0.9350 200m - EUR/CHF: EUR amounts 1.0340 952m Information on these pages contains forward-l
I think today being Wednesday (triple swap in place now), plus the juicy options being at 1050 and 1000 area, I favour short today. I am short already. I am happy London spiked out the Asian high first and that simply means the day will end with the Asian low broken. 1050 is my TP.
  • #98,247
  • Mar 30, 2022 3:42am Mar 30, 2022 3:42am
That moment when EU tries hard to convince you to buy at the top. Lol. When the interest rate was much higher than this, I used to love Wednesdays when London opens and starts rushing up like a headless chicken. The fall used to be great. I hope it happens today again.
  • #98,248
  • Mar 30, 2022 3:55am Mar 30, 2022 3:55am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} If this Eur can come back again at 1135, , and at 1150.. I will go all in to short Eur...... I didn't pay attention to day downtrend stop 1138 before, which bears held..
all my pending triggered...
  • #98,249
  • Mar 30, 2022 3:57am Mar 30, 2022 3:57am
Eur testing day downtrend stop at 1137atm.. lets see bears can defend at NY close...
  • #98,250
  • Mar 30, 2022 3:59am Mar 30, 2022 3:59am
Quoting Boulder
FX option expiries for March 30 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1000 2.44b 1.1050-60 1.8b 1.1100 2.17b 1.1150-55 1.36b 1.1195-00 1.64b - USD/JPY: USD amounts 122.00 690m 122.50 250m 122.90 1b - GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.3100 630m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.7600 360m - USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.2450 550m 1.2475 350m 1.2500 718m 1.2525 730m 1.2550 317m - USD/CHF: USD amounts 0.9240 360m 0.9250 280m 0.9350 200m - EUR/CHF: EUR amounts 1.0340 952m Information on these pages contains...

  1. 1.1150-55 1.36b

  • #98,251
  • Mar 30, 2022 4:04am Mar 30, 2022 4:04am
caught some at 1150.. Some month R close wise at 1165. Bulls need to close above 1150 to me. And probably 1165 and 1208. To end the month. If the bulls slip now, the rubberband is twisted to drop. If it happens and when I cant say. It could be at any moment, or not at all. Fundi wise, I would not be surprised to see the month candle fill out to the downside.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #98,252
  • Mar 30, 2022 4:30am Mar 30, 2022 4:30am
All I can read everywhere (by bank analysts) is how bearish EUR is, this is a "temporary" "consolidation", "most likely down from here", etc. Yet eu was 1305 when Ukraine started and I'd bet a fair chunk of money that by the time there's a ceasefire price will pay* a visit.
*pay, get it, hehe, aight im out
  • #98,253
  • Mar 30, 2022 4:42am Mar 30, 2022 4:42am
This would be nice for a twip swap.. end today. If it held many indis would turn.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #98,254
  • Mar 30, 2022 4:49am Mar 30, 2022 4:49am
Quoting saninvestor
GU went long 3101 for 3188, 3223
out 3146
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #98,255
  • Mar 30, 2022 4:59am Mar 30, 2022 4:59am
Quoting xav
All I can read everywhere (by bank analysts) is how bearish EUR is, this is a "temporary" "consolidation", "most likely down from here", etc. Yet eu was 1305 when Ukraine started and I'd bet a fair chunk of money that by the time there's a ceasefire price will pay* a visit. *pay, get it, hehe, aight im out
Just think, a large banks has many analyst. All with different opinions. A large bank has many traders with their own books. They all have different opinions. I get curios about what one of these traders, or analyst speak for the bank? And if the one being quoted was out sick that day. Would the next one, have a different view? So I dont get caught to much into what's credited to a bank. Something quoted from a bank employee. An employee probably talking up his book.
Its almost like getting a quote from different politicians. Some left, some right, telling me what direction the country is going.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #98,256
  • Mar 30, 2022 5:07am Mar 30, 2022 5:07am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Just think, a large banks has many analyst. All with different opinions. A large bank has many traders with their own books. They all have different opinions. I get curios about what one of these traders, or analyst speak for the bank? And if the one being quoted was out sick that day. Would the next one, have a different view? So I dont get caught to much into what's credited to a bank. Something quoted from a bank employee. An employee probably talking up his book. Its almost like getting a quote from different politicians. Some left,...
I'm not too old to remember a "bank" calling for 200 oil. While it was trying to unload oil.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #98,257
  • Mar 30, 2022 5:14am Mar 30, 2022 5:14am
lets see we can start to reverse this Eur bullish trend one by one... since first time test day downtrend stop 1137, let see bears can hold at NY close......
I still hold all my Eur shorts, even though some have good profits... I am waiting to cash out later.......
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  • #98,258
  • Mar 30, 2022 5:16am Mar 30, 2022 5:16am
What happens if these banks unload a bunch of stuck longs? On trip swap at the month high?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #98,259
  • Mar 30, 2022 5:36am Mar 30, 2022 5:36am
Quoting Boulder
lets see we can start to reverse this Eur bullish trend one by one... since first time test day downtrend stop 1137, let see bears can hold at NY close...... I still hold all my Eur shorts, even though some have good profits... I am waiting to cash out later....... {image}
Bears took back M5.. let see M15 next...
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  • #98,260
  • Mar 30, 2022 5:49am Mar 30, 2022 5:49am
Quoting gatorinla
What happens if these banks unload a bunch of stuck longs? On trip swap at the month high?
Lol... it'll be a race to the bottom veiled in some Russia-Ukraine news. Heck, they could even say Powell slapped Lagarde and boom price drops into the ocean. Anything to justify the move.
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