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  • #10,261
  • Mar 29, 2022 2:31pm Mar 29, 2022 2:31pm
I'm not sure where we go now. Closed Oil at a profit, USD/CAD at a small loss. API data in a couple hours which was very different last week from the IEA crude inventories WED and showed a 2.5 million barrel draw down where API showed a small build up. The NFP is also looming in the background Friday. Getting volatile and i'm not sure what the play is now. The Russia-Ukraine deal can also develop further. Lots of moving parts.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,262
  • Mar 29, 2022 4:13pm Mar 29, 2022 4:13pm
API 3 million barrel draw down.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,263
  • Mar 29, 2022 5:14pm Mar 29, 2022 5:14pm
Buying here at 105 until I get the willies and dump it.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,264
  • Mar 29, 2022 5:32pm Mar 29, 2022 5:32pm
By looking at daily chart -
for bullish trend HH 11630;
for bearish LL 9246.
My sentiment remains bearish atm, can change any day as we know price can easily move 1000 pips/day. We will find out soon.
Trade safe

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  • #10,265
  • Mar 29, 2022 5:46pm Mar 29, 2022 5:46pm
Quoting Jolita
By looking at daily chart - for bullish trend HH 11630; for bearish LL 9246. My sentiment remains bearish atm, can change any day as we know price can easily move 1000 pips/day. We will find out soon. Trade safe {image}
A sudden announcement of a peace deal for Ukraine will surely bring it down to 92.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,266
  • Mar 30, 2022 1:53am Mar 30, 2022 1:53am
OPEC meeting THU. Read that they cannot even fulfill the current quota from the last increase so they will stand pat and keep production where it is. So far API Inventory is bullish, IEA data in a few hours most likely a draw, bullish again. OPEC not increasing production, bullish. A Trifecta to keep prices supported.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,267
  • Edited 4:31pm Mar 30, 2022 3:00am | Edited 4:31pm
Quoting Temujin
{quote} A sudden announcement of a peace deal for Ukraine will surely bring it down to 92.
Doubt it. Putin has only started. Unless his mates will run out of money and pressurise him to back off.
At the moment he is moving troops from Georgia to the front line. Wasted talks and false hopes.

Supply worry continues.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ns-2022-03-30/
  • #10,268
  • Mar 30, 2022 6:14am Mar 30, 2022 6:14am
Quoting Temujin
{quote} A sudden announcement of a peace deal for Ukraine will surely bring it down to 92.
the problem with these negotiations is that even if Putin and Zelenskyy agreed to certain terms. Can Zelenskyy truly negotiate on behalf of the hardline right wing element? it is my understanding that they fight together against a common enemy but are not on the same page about many things. In 2019 when he was elected president a big part of his mandate was to bring peace and end the civil war, upon touring the frontlines he was threatened to be killed by the militia if he dared to agree to certain terms. The situation seems way more complicated than the media will dare to discuss. unfortunately this war may need to go on further before any type of agreement can be reached.
  • #10,269
  • Mar 30, 2022 8:55am Mar 30, 2022 8:55am
Closed my $105 daily contracts purchased last night just now at $108.25. Booked that profit and pulled risk and gains off the table.
I also have some weekly expires for Friday at 105.75 and I'm letting these run.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,270
  • Mar 30, 2022 9:05am Mar 30, 2022 9:05am
I agree with the war assessment and it will be a long drawn out process with oil sanctions still in place and minus too many barrels from the U.S. market every week. Only a complete peace deal with troop withdrawals and guarantees would cause a knee jerk reaction to $92
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,271
  • Mar 30, 2022 9:41am Mar 30, 2022 9:41am
3.4 Million Barrel draw down. OIL UP. OPEC either will not increase production at all or very little tomorrow.
My guess we close up a $108.90 Friday.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,272
  • Mar 30, 2022 11:12am Mar 30, 2022 11:12am
looking like resistance may be holding around this area $107.50. Possible drop coming again sub 100. we'll see
  • #10,273
  • Mar 30, 2022 3:35pm Mar 30, 2022 3:35pm
Quoting Kwame Freder
looking like resistance may be holding around this area $107.50. Possible drop coming again sub 100. we'll see
Low or mid $90's would be a good place to build long positions.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,274
  • Mar 31, 2022 12:24am Mar 31, 2022 12:24am
So Biden has opened the spigot, 1 million barrels a day from the SPR. He caused me to cut a loss.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,275
  • Edited 1:38am Mar 31, 2022 1:11am | Edited 1:38am
Quoting Temujin
So Biden has opened the spigot, 1 million barrels a day from the SPR. He caused me to cut a loss.
Too much, too late. Continuing uncertainty re the Russia/Ukraine situation taking a big toll on the markets, past 5 hrs a dumping ground.

EDIT: 'Beware the Ides of March', one day to go : )

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"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
  • #10,276
  • Mar 31, 2022 3:42am Mar 31, 2022 3:42am
Previous monthly candle closed at 9575, can we beat this today?
Lots of contracts will expire today.

OPEC plus output would rise to around 432,000 barrels per day in May-September, from 400,000 b/d since August of last year. Was this info released today?

Iran deal still has issues unsolved.

Monthly chart showing data.
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I have a few short trades, but will see where we land today. Thinking in swiching sides from tomorrow as it is beginning of the month, also money managers increased long positions last week, we have unfilled gap.
  • #10,277
  • Mar 31, 2022 3:52am Mar 31, 2022 3:52am
OPEC today and NFP Friday. Going to be volatile.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,278
  • Mar 31, 2022 4:08am Mar 31, 2022 4:08am
Quoting Temujin
OPEC today and NFP Friday. Going to be volatile.
Opec - https://www.energyintel.com/0000017f...f-dbefff240000

According to Biden people returning to work. I expect very strong growth and low unemployment rate.
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https://www.theguardian.com/business...vel-since-1969
  • #10,279
  • Mar 31, 2022 9:03am Mar 31, 2022 9:03am
Quoting yani38
{quote} Too much, too late. Continuing uncertainty re the Russia/Ukraine situation taking a big toll on the markets, past 5 hrs a dumping ground. EDIT: 'Beware the Ides of March', one day to go : ) {image}
95 is coming. These are just temporary moves up and down. The real uptrend will not resume until 89 or so.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,280
  • Mar 31, 2022 9:07am Mar 31, 2022 9:07am
Quoting Jolita
{quote} Opec - https://www.energyintel.com/0000017f...f-dbefff240000 According to Biden people returning to work. I expect very strong growth and low unemployment rate. {image} https://www.theguardian.com/business...vel-since-1969
All the more reason to step up the Fed tightening and withdraw monetary support at a faster pace.
Be humble or be humbled.
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