Free Market Updates by Solidecn.com

EURUSD, EU intends to reduce dependence on Russian gas

The key event of the past week was the statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin that payment for natural gas supplies to "unfriendly" countries should now be made in rubles. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, noted that official Moscow's violation of contractual obligations is an attempt to circumvent Western economic sanctions imposed on the country after the start of a special military operation in Ukraine. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell stressed that European states would be able to refuse Russian gas supplies within two years since work has already begun to diversify sources and reduce dependence on energy raw materials from Russia. Also, at a press conference at the Doha Forum, the official noted that an agreement on a "nuclear deal" with Iran could be signed in the coming days. It will bring additional volumes of energy resources to the market. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Germany could stop importing coal and oil from Russia as early this year, noting that EU countries are still too dependent on imports. As for macroeconomic data, the business climate index in Germany continued to decline and dropped to 90.8 points in March from 98.5 points shown a month earlier. The index of business expectations corrected to 85.1 points from 98.4 points.

Against the backdrop of an impending new wave of crisis in the EU, the US dollar looks pretty stable, despite not very positive statistics. Thus, in February, the index of pending sales in the real estate market amounted to –4.1%, which was worse than the 1.0% growth predicted by analysts. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index stood at 59.4 in March, down from 62.8 in February.

The asset moves within a wide downward channel, declining towards the support line. Technical indicators hold a strong global sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, while the AO oscillator histogram remains deep in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.1071, 1.1341.
Support levels: 1.0894, 1.0680.

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Nasdaq 100, the influx of investors into the shares continues

The Nasdaq 100 index shows an uptrend, being at 14665. The US stock market continues to be supported locally by an increase in the number of retail investors trying to diversify their portfolios by directing their capital to assets that have lost the most value in order to escape high inflation.

Netflix Inc. announced a deal to acquire mobile game maker Boss Fight Entertainment as part of the service's strategy to create game content. It is worth noting that there is no information yet on which platforms the development will be carried out for, but experts note that the studio will not be re-profiled and will focus on mobile platforms. The details of the transaction are not disclosed. Earlier in March, Netflix Inc. announced the acquisition of Finnish mobile game developer Next Games for 72 million dollars.

The index quotes have left the limits of the narrow downward channel and, having formed a full-fledged reversal, continue to grow. The technical indicators are in the buy signal they gave last week: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator is expanding in the direction of growth and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading in the buy zone and forming ascending bars.

Support levels: 14410, 13020.
Resistance levels: 15070, 16410.


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NZDUSD, New Zealand employment recovers

Supported by soaring commodity prices and positive employment statistics from the Stats N.Z. agency, the NZD/USD pair is holding at stable levels around 0.6945.

Over the past month, the number of employed jobs in the country increased by 5,989K, which is 0.3% higher than in January. The sector of scientific and technological services showed the greatest growth of the indicator, having added 8.2% or 14.185K jobs, and in the construction sector, the value increased by 7.0%. Security added 6.8%, while healthcare and retail added 4.1% and 3.9%, respectively.

The instrument moves within the local ascending channel, rising along the resistance line. Technical indicators maintain a stable buy signal: fast EMAs on the alligator indicator are significantly above the signal line, and the A.O. oscillator histogram forms rising bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6980, 0.7158.
Support levels: 0.6889, 0.6710.



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Crude Oil, oil holds near 109

During the Asian session, quotations of Brent Crude Oil show restrained growth, trying to consolidate above the psychological level of 109. Yesterday, the instrument was actively decreasing, which analysts attribute to fears of a sharp drop in demand for oil products from China. Since Monday, authorities in the city of Shanghai have announced the biggest lockdown since the start of the pandemic. In particular, almost half of the city will be closed for mass testing for COVID-19 for four days, after which the other half of the city will be closed for another four days. All city enterprises, except those that provide life support, will be sent to a remote mode of operation, and residents will not be able to leave their apartments even for grocery shopping.

Additional pressure on the quotes of Brent Crude Oil was provided by reports of new rocket attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. Today, in the context of a possible decrease or even a hypothetical cessation of Russian energy supplies, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates act as countries that can compensate for possible losses in the world market, but OPEC+ is not in a hurry to increase quotas for a monthly increase in production volumes. The cartel's next meeting should take place at the end of the month, and any hint of a change in current production plans could lead to noticeable fluctuations in quotes.

On Tuesday, markets are waiting for the publication of a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on the dynamics of "black gold" stocks for the week of March 25. The previous document reflected their decline by 4.28M barrels.

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are trying to turn into a horizontal plane: the price range remains practically unchanged but remains quite spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD falls, keeping a strong sell signal. Stochastic demonstrates similar dynamics, indicating that the instrument may become oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 109, 112, 115.5, 118.32.
Support levels: 106, 102.8, 100, 96.5.


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Gold, flat dynamics in the short term

Gold prices are consolidating during the Asian session, holding near 1920. The day before, the instrument showed a rather active decline, which was caused by another increase in the attractiveness of the US currency for investors. The US dollar is strengthening amid expectations of further tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve, which may raise the rate by 50 basis points at once during the May meeting. In addition, the demand for the US currency is growing due to an increase in the yield of treasury bonds: for 10-year securities it rose above 2.55% for the first time since May 2019. Return of asset quotes above 1950 will provide stronger support for gold, which may then rush to last week's highs around 1966.

In turn, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset remains quite high amid the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. Traders are disappointed in the negotiation process and no longer expect that the parties will be able to reach a peace agreement in the near future.

It is also worth noting that the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and the World Gold Council (WGC) intend to create a blockchain-based database that will allow tracking the origin and movement of gold bars around the world. The initiative is aimed at preventing trading in illegally mined metal. At the moment, the market is recording an increase in the number of bars with counterfeit stamps with logos of large manufacturing enterprises.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short/ultra-short term. MACD is going down, keeping a fairly stable sell signal. Stochastic, having retreated from its highs, shows an active downtrend, signaling in favor of the further development of "bearish" trend in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1930, 1952, 1974.2, 2000.
Support levels: 1900, 1877, 1860, 1840.


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S&P 500, growth at the back of correction in the bond market

The S&P 500 index is correcting up against the backdrop of growth in the bond market, trading at around 4587. In the corporate segment, it is worth noting the increased activity in the shares of electric car manufacturer Tesla Inc. The company said it plans to seek permission from its shareholders for an additional share split in the form of dividends ranging from 2:1 to 3:1. The last time such a split was held in August 2020, when each shareholder received additional four securities for one already in hand.

The bond market continues active growth, which was clearly confirmed by yesterday's trading. The yield on 2-year US Treasury notes was fixed at 2.365%, well up from 1.553% at the last placement, the rate on 6-month notes was 1.050% versus 0.870% a month earlier, and the yield on 5-year treasury bills was fixed at 2.543% from 1.880% on the previous placement.

The index quotes are traded in a local uptrend, having overcome the resistance line of the descending channel the day before. Technical indicators have already reversed and issued a new buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal line from below and the AO oscillator histogram moved into the buy zone, continuing to form ascending bars above the zero level.

Support levels: 4510, 4278.
Resistance levels: 4630, 4800.


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EURUSD: progress in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine pushes the price up

The European currency shows moderate growth against the US dollar during the Asian session, developing a strong "bullish" momentum formed the day before. EURUSD is testing 1.111 for a breakout and is located near the local highs of March 17.

The appearance of optimistic moods of investors was facilitated by the preliminary results of the meeting of the Russian and Ukrainian delegations, which ended in Turkey the day before. The parties announced significant breakthrough in the negotiations, which, in theory, could contribute to the de-escalation of the military conflict on the territory of Ukraine. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu also said that due to the transition of the current agreements into practice, the command decided to temporarily suspend the advance of troops in a number of areas. At the same time, it is noted that noticeable contradictions still remain between the parties, primarily on the territorial issue. Russia is expected to present its counter proposals today.

Another factor contributing to the growth of EUR/USD is the rally in eurozone bond yields. German 2-year Treasuries posted a substantial daily gain of 10 basis points for the first time since 2015. Continued positive dynamics will allow overcoming the key level of 0.0%.
In the meantime, market participants are waiting for the publication of a block of statistics on business sentiment in the euro area for March, as well as data on consumer inflation in Germany for the same period, which will be released today. Forecasts suggest a further increase in price pressure against the backdrop of a widespread decline in business confidence and activity. For example, the Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey for April in Germany released the day before fell from -8.5 to -15.5 points, which turned out to be significantly worse than market forecasts at the level of -12 points.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is slightly expanding, barely keeping up with the surge in "bullish" sentiment in recent days. MACD grows, preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics; however, the indicator line is already approaching its highs, indicating the risks of overbought EUR in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.115, 1.1185, 1.122, 1.1255
Support levels: 1.11, 1.1051, 1.1, 1.0957.


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USDJPY, data on the labor market of Japan was positive

After more than a month of unsuccessful attempts to stop the fall, the Japanese currency finally approached the resistance level and significantly strengthened against the US dollar, which became the catalyst for the movement of quotes to the 121.88 area. The reason for the positive dynamics was the data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan on the state of the national labor market.

As the report showed, unemployment in the country in February fell to 2.7% from 2.8% a month earlier, while the price-adjusted forecast assumed that the value would remain around 2.8%. The total number of unemployed decreased by 30K to 1.88M, while the number of vacancies relative to applicants increased markedly with 121 open vacancies per 100 people, which contrasts with the previous result of 100/120.

However, the pressure on the yen continues to come from the decision of the Bank of Japan to purchase an unlimited number of 10-year government bonds at a rate of 0.25% after their yield jumped to a six-year high of 0.245%. Quotations are also negatively affected by rising commodity prices, which increase the country's trade deficit.

The quotes of the American currency reached annual highs, turned around and corrected down after US President Joe Biden, during a discussion of the draft budget for next year, called for adjusting its figure to 5.79T dollars, of which 813B is planned to be directed to financing the defense industry. This proposal caused bewilderment in the public since, in the context of a sharp increase in energy and food prices, it would be reasonable to increase the item of support for the population and the economy but not the defense budget.

The currency pair is moving within the global uptrend, correcting downwards. Technical indicators keep a stable buy signal, which has not yet reacted to the pair's decline. The EMA fluctuation range on the Alligator indicator is still quite wide, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming new up bars.

Resistance levels: 123.7, 126.3 | Support levels: 120.8, 117.3


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Brent Crude Oil: oil market expects major changes

Benchmark Brent Crude Oil prices are currently trading below 108.00 as geopolitical tensions eased after talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Turkey yesterday.

Yesterday, the CNBC TV channel published a report on the reorientation of Russian oil supplies to Asian markets. According to experts, there is no talk of a complete change in the transportation route, but according to data for the first quarter of 2022, it is planned to increase exports to India significantly. Since the beginning of March, about 6M barrels have already been sent to the country, which is half of last year's total volume, and a 20% discount on supplies has also been provided. Also, it is reported that a preliminary agreement has also been reached with China, and if it is eventually signed, this could make serious changes to the global energy market and support Brent Crude Oil quotes. Also, the Ministry of Energy of Saudi Arabia announced the intention of the kingdom to increase production in 2022 and the possible appearance of an excess of oil of about 2M barrels per day on the market in this case.

Yesterday's report on stocks from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a decrease in stocks by 3.000M barrels, while last week, the reduction was 4.280M. If today's US Department of Energy (EIA) statistics also reflect a decrease in stocks, this will support the oil price.

On the global chart, the price continues to clamp within the formation of the global Triangle pattern. Technical indicators keep a buy signal that is not clear enough. Indicator Alligator's EMA fluctuations range narrows, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars in the buy zone.

Support levels: 106.3, 96 | Resistance levels: 118, 131.


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XRPUSD, correction within the uptrend

At the beginning of the week, the XRP/USD pair continued to grow and rose to the 0.9130 area, after which it corrected downwards. However, the general upward trend persists.

According to several experts, the token could be under pressure due to a new initiative of Chris Larsen, one of the leaders of Ripple. He supported Greenpeace and several other organizations' "Change the Code, Not the Climate" campaign to use greener algorithms instead of Proof-of-Work with 5M dollars. However, the idea was received strongly negatively in the cryptocurrency world, and Larsen was accused of hypocrisy and even promoting the interests of his currency, XRP. Market participants questioned the motives of the creator of Ripple, noting his indifference to environmental issues during his company's use of environmentally harmful technologies in the past. Also, the very attempt to put pressure on the 50 leading market participants seems dangerous to crypto enthusiasts since they advocate maximum decentralization.

As for the litigation between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), there has been some lull here as the court awaits responses from the digital company to new regulator charges that must be filed before April 8.

On the daily chart, there is a formation of successive Doji candlestick analysis patterns below 0.8479, which indicate uncertainty in the market and signal a likely downward reversal. A confirming signal to sell is the formed Shooting star model, which formed under the resistance level of 0.9131. The long shadow of this candle emphasizes the exhaustion of the "bulls" and the activation of sellers at the current level. At the moment, the asset may test the support level of 0.7831. If it is broken by the "bears," the price will continue its downward movement to 0.6961–0.4193. An alternative scenario can be implemented if the quotes consolidate above 0.9131.

Resistance levels: 0.9131, 1.0157, 1.1346, 1.2814 | Support levels: 0.7831, 0.6961, 0.5887, 0.4193


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NZDUSD, trend replaced by an upward one
The NZDUSD pair is strengthening to the level of 0.6980, as under the influence of rapidly rising commodity prices, the export-oriented economy of New Zealand is showing growth. Optimism about the negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations, which took place yesterday in Turkey, allows investors to pay attention to risky assets, as well as euros and shares of European companies.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand economy is showing strong growth, as evidenced by the publication of updated data on construction permits for February: the indicator increased by 10.5% for the month, although in January the value was negative and amounted to -8.7%.

Thus, the NZD/USD pair changes the long-term trend to an upward one, breaking through the key resistance level of 0.6910. For the "bulls", new targets are opening in the area of 0.7055 and 0.7200, and the 0.6910 mark passes into the category of support levels and shifts to the area of 0.6885.

The mid-term trend in the NZDUSD pair has long been replaced by an upward one. As part of the growth last week, the bidders reached the target zone 3 (0.6963-0.6949), which buyers are trying to break out at the moment. If successful, the next will be target zone 4 (0.71030-0.7089). Key trend support: 0.6848-0.6834.

Resistance levels: 0.7055, 0.72 | Support levels: 0.6885, 0.6739, 0.665.


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AUDUSD, the pair is in a correction, a fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of C developed, and a downward correction develops as the wave (2) of C. Now, the wave of the lower level A of (2) has formed, and the development of the wave B of (2) is ending, within which the development of the wave c of B is ending.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, AUDUSD will fall to the levels of 0.6742 - 0.6446. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.8.

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Gold, Fibonacci levels analysis

Daily overview
On the daily chart, the price continues to test 1921 (correction 50.0%), and the consolidation below it allows a decline to 1890 (correction 61.8%), 1850 (the area of January highs). However, an ascending fan may prevent negative dynamics. The key "bullish" level is 1951 (correction 38.2%), supported by the middle line of Bollinger bands. Its breakout will give the prospect of further growth to 1990 (correction 23.6%), 2050 (correction 0.0%).

Technical indicators do not give a single signal: Bollinger bands are horizontal, Stochastic reverses upwards, but the MACD histogram decreases in the negative zone.
Weekly overview


On the weekly chart, the price tested 2033 (correction 0.0%) but is now correcting downwards. A break of 1890 (38.2% ascending fan line) further declines to 1835 (23.6% correction, middle line of Bollinger Bands). Otherwise, the quotes will be able to return to 1990 (upper line of Bollinger bands), 2033.

Technical indicators do not give a single signal: Bollinger bands are directed upwards, Stochastic is directed downwards, and the MACD histogram increases in the positive zone.



Resistance levels: 1951, 1990, 2050 | Support levels: 1921, 1890, 1835

FTSE 100, UK stock market is strengthening

The UK stock market continues to try to return to the levels of annual highs that were recorded in early February 2022. In general, everything is quite stable in the corporate segment, except for the fact that yesterday S4 Capital Plc., which provides advertising services, once again postponed the publication date of the financial year 2022, this time due to problems with the audit service. This served as a catalyst for a mass sale of the issuer's shares, after which the quotes lost 36% in value.

In addition, it should be noted that the ongoing period of stabilization in the UK bond market, where 10-year bonds somewhat lost in yield, dropping to 1.668%. 20-year conservative bonds fell to 1.879%, which is slightly lower than 1.957% at the end of last week. In general, the consolidation of the debt market may be a leading signal for the start of a large-scale correction in the stock market.


Index quotes are trading within the global Expanding Formation pattern. Technical indicators are in a stable buy signal state: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator expands in the direction of growth, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming new ascending bars in the purchase zone.

Support levels: 7455, 7200 | Resistance levels: 7645, 7800.


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USDCHF, the US dollar is recovering its positions

The US dollar shows moderate growth against the Swiss franc during the Asian session, recovering from a sharp decline the day before, which led to updating local lows from March 7. Investors are turning their attention back to the defensive asset as expectations decline for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine that would bring about a final ceasefire. However, buyers are cautious ahead of the publication of a large block of US macroeconomic statistics at the end of the week. The focus is on the Friday's report on the labor market for March, which will re-evaluate the prospects for an earlier tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve during the May meeting. Earlier, the Chair of the regulator, Jerome Powell, did not rule out the possibility of raising the rate by 50 basis points at once in response to the continuing growth of inflationary pressure.

The macroeconomic statistics from the US and Switzerland published yesterday did not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the instrument. The index of economic expectations in Switzerland from the ZEW Institute in March showed a sharp decline from 9 to -27.8 points, which turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations of growth to 9.1 points. In turn, US data reflected a slight decline in GDP dynamics for Q4 2021 from 7% to 6.9%. In addition, the ADP Employment Change Report showed an increase of only 455K new jobs after an increase of 486K.

On the D1 chart Bollinger Bands are reversing into the descending plane. The price range is expanding from below; however, it fails to catch the surge of the "bearish" sentiment at the moment. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic keeps a downward direction but is located near its lows, which indicates the risks of oversold USD in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.9250, 0.9300, 0.9341, 0.9381 | Support levels: 0.9219, 0.9200, 0.9175, 0.9148


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Gold, the pair may grow

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 of (5) develops, within which the wave iii of 3 forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of iii is developing, within which the wave iii of (iii) has formed, the correctional wave iv of (iii) has ended, and the development of the wave v of (iii) is starting.

If the assumption is correct, Gold will grow to the levels of $2150 - $2200. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is $1890.

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EURUSD, euro is correcting at the end of the week

The European currency shows flat dynamics of trading against the US dollar during the Asian session, consolidating near 1.1060 and waiting for new drivers. The day before, the euro showed a sharp weakening against the US currency, which did not allow the instrument to consolidate on new local highs from March 1.

The return of "bearish" trend was due to the growth of negative sentiments regarding the impact of sanctions against Russia on the global and European economy in particular. Among other things, analysts are trying to assess the prospects for interruptions in gas supplies to the EU due to the introduction of a new mechanism for paying current and subsequent contracts in rubles. Many European countries have said they will not make concessions to Russia, which could lead to a potential cessation of exports by the Russian Federation.

The macroeconomic statistics from the EU published yesterday had only a minor impact on the dynamics of the instrument. Retail Sales in Germany rose by 0.3% in February, which was slightly worse than market expectations at the level of 0.5%. In annual terms, sales volumes slowed down from 10.4% to 7.0%, while experts expected a fall to 6.1%. At the same time, the German labor market in March showed very encouraging resilience on the eve of a new possible crisis. The Unemployment Change in the country fell by 18K, slowing down, however, after a decline of 33K.


In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is almost unchanged, reflecting the development of flat dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having reached the level of "80", reversed into a descending plane, reacting to the appearance of corrective dynamics on the results of Thursday.

Resistance levels: 1.11, 1.115, 1.1185, 1.122 | Support levels: 1.1051, 1.1, 1.0957, 1.09


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Brent Crude Oil, oil prices are falling

The instrument develops the downward momentum that formed yesterday when the market responded with sales to new statements by US President Joe Biden about his intention to additionally send 1M barrels per day to the market from the strategic reserve (SPR). It is expected that such a measure will be in effect for the next six months and will allow prices to stabilize at current levels or lower in the face of uncertainty regarding energy supplies from Russia. Also, Biden instructed to work out new measures to support American producers of "black gold," which will also potentially contribute to the development of corrective dynamics in the commodity areas.

Meanwhile, the OPEC+ meeting, which took place yesterday, again did not lead to any changes in the market. Despite pressure from the United States, the cartel refused to increase production: it will increase only by the planned 432K barrels per day for May. Analysts note that OPEC fears sharp fluctuations in supply and demand dynamics in the market and therefore avoids additional influence on the situation, given the sharply increased geopolitical risks.

On Friday, also to the March report on the US labor market, the focus of traders will be statistics from Baker Hughes on active oil platforms. The previous report for the week of March 25 showed an increase in active drilling units from 524 to 531 units.



On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are moving flat. The price range is actively narrowing, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading in the short term. The MACD indicator is going down, keeping a strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic demonstrates similar dynamics, but the indicator line is rapidly approaching its lows, indicating that the instrument may become oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 106, 109, 112, 115.5 | Support levels: 102.8, 100, 96.5, 93.34


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Dow Jones, the US stock market is preparing for a new decline

The US stock market is declining again, the reason for which was the technology sector, whose shares are seriously getting cheaper. Thus, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. stocks lost more than 5.6% due to the negative forecast of Barclays experts and the change of the recommendation to negative. In turn, the quotes of HP Inc. and Dell Technologies Inc. are losing 7.6% and 7.4%, respectively, after Morgan Stanley analysts lowered their forecast for the purchase of shares of these companies.

The US bond market is showing local growth. Thus, the yield rate on 10-year US Treasuries increased by 2.62% and by 1.90% on conservative 20-year securities. Short-term bonds are also rising. The rate on annual treasury securities increased by 1.77%, and on 6-month — by 3.50%. At the moment, there is not a single company showing growth in the index, and among the least losing in price are Caterpillar Inc. (-0.12%), Amgen Inc. (-0.31%), Coca-Cola Co. (-0.34%), Merck&Co. (-0.42%). The leaders of the decline are Walgreens Boots Inc. (-5.67%), Intel Corp. (-3.71%), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (-3.00%).



The index quotes continue to trade inside the descending channel, having reached the resistance line the day before. Technical indicators are ready to reverse and issue a sell signal: the fast EMA of the alligator indicator began to actively approach the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator formed the first descending bar.

Support levels: 34327, 32540 | Resistance levels: 35260, 36410

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USDCHF, rising inflation in Switzerland strengthens the franc

The strengthening of the Swiss franc was caused by outstripping inflation, which remained in the zero area for a long time. Today, renewed data on the consumer price index for March was released: the indicator rose by 0.6% MoM, higher than the forecast of 0.5%, and amounted to 2.4% YoY. It means that rising prices around the world are beginning to impact the Swiss economy, which in the future may lead to an increase in the interest rate. The procure.ch Manufacturing PMI was released today, showing the activity of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. The indicator reached 64.0 points, higher than the forecast of 60.5 points and the previous value of 62.6 points, which further supported the franc.

It is worth noting that Switzerland and the United States are at different stages of the economic cycle, and their central banks pursue different monetary policies. Switzerland maintains a negative interest rate of –0.75%, which has not changed for seven years, and the US Federal Reserve has begun to tighten monetary policy, which implies a cycle of interest rate hikes in 2022. The US dollar is expected to strengthen in the long term, while the Swiss franc can maintain its position and remain neutral.



The long-term trend is upwards, but now, a correction is developing, within which the asset tested the support area of 0.9205–0.9155. If buyers hold it, then the growth of the asset will continue to 0.9450.

As part of the medium-term downtrend, the instrument reached the target zone 2 (0.9216–0.9204), the breakdown of which will allow sellers to lower the price to the target zone 3 (0.9098–0.9087). Holding the target zone 2 may lead to a medium-term correction to the trend line 0.9326–0.9314.

Resistance levels: 0.9363, 0.9450, 0.9539 | Support levels: 0.9205, 0.9155, 0.9089, 0.9033


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