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  • #10,221
  • Mar 25, 2022 5:23am Mar 25, 2022 5:23am
Shorts are doing well, would like price to touch 106.20
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  • #10,222
  • Mar 25, 2022 5:31am Mar 25, 2022 5:31am
Quoting RedTeam98
More upside WTI thru Apr ! Especially Mid Apr. USO currently up After hours ! Very Bad Nuclear Deal with Russians negotiating on US behalf. Proposed to move Nuc waste from Iran to Russia to US. You cannot trust the Russians or Iran what are they thinking ? 3 US Biden team negotiators quit because the deal was not in the best interest of US. Iran refuse to negotiate with US directly. A number of big oil traders now predict crude to trade at more than $200 per barrel by the end of 2022. Doug King, the chairman of RCMA Group even sees crude at $250...

Hi RedTeam,
Lots of decision making is happening these days, no one can predict the price.
We can't be threatened and move on to make new contract's, changes are always for the better.
G7 made very good progress today.
I monitor Rates price prediction too, there is misleading information, best not to rely on it.
  • #10,223
  • Edited 1:36pm Mar 25, 2022 1:05pm | Edited 1:36pm
I was too ambitious, price haven't reached 106.20. Possible due to Soudi Arabia attack.

For next week direction is likely more to the upside.
Best to follow money managers.
Tensions building, uncertainty, demand still high, low supply, etc

Sharing:
Money managers increased their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 5,118 contracts to 263,857 in the week ending March 22
Long-only positions rose by 3,276
Short-only positions fell by 1,842
other reportables net-length fell by 1,151


Money managers increased their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 7,832 contracts to 160,437 in the week ending March 22
Long-only positions rose by 8,536
Short-only positions rose by 704
other reportables net-length rose by 10,569
  • #10,224
  • Mar 25, 2022 1:37pm Mar 25, 2022 1:37pm
Quoting Jolita
{quote} Hi RedTeam, Lots of decision making is happening these days, no one can predict the price. We can't be threatened and move on to make new contract's, changes are always for the better. G7 made very good progress today. I monitor Rates price prediction too, there is misleading information, best not to rely on it.
G7 Biden made statement about supplying gas for Germany
I think this was off the cuff statement
its going to have come from other countries
with the EPA regulations and his current energy policy here at home I don’t see it happening.
We have very little LNG ports and pipelines to ports.
It will have to come from other countries!
i think it was other statement or deal that no one was prepared or planned for before the meeting. Another Blunder!
  • #10,225
  • Mar 25, 2022 1:42pm Mar 25, 2022 1:42pm
Quoting RedTeam98
{quote} G7 Biden made statement about supplying gas for Germany I think this was off the cuff statement its going to have come from other countries with the EPA regulations and his current energy policy here at home I don’t see it happening. We have very little LNG ports and pipelines to ports. It will have to come from other countries!
they r just winging it at this point. doesn't appear as though anyone had a plan. Wherever Germany finds gas from will almost certainly be more expensive than Russian gas piped in. dark days ahead
  • #10,226
  • Mar 25, 2022 1:45pm Mar 25, 2022 1:45pm
Quoting Kwame Freder
{quote} they r just winging it at this point. doesn't appear as though anyone had a plan. Wherever Germany finds gas from will almost certainly be more expensive than Russian gas piped in. dark days ahead
Good for investors !
I am having a great 2022 in Energy ETF
interesting to see Biden Energy policy after he returns from Europe
  • #10,227
  • Mar 25, 2022 1:53pm Mar 25, 2022 1:53pm
[quote=RedTeam98;13946563]

Germany will find a way.
We do worry about autumn, still time to arrange new deals.

Canada anounced will increase exports. Also a deal is in progress with Venezuela, even is not as good quality.

Germany imports of Russian oil now accounted for 25% of German imports, down from 35% before the invasion, and gas imports have been cut to 40% from 55%. Russian hard coal imports were down to 25% from 50% before the invasion.

Good luck
  • #10,228
  • Mar 25, 2022 2:14pm Mar 25, 2022 2:14pm
[quote=Jolita;13946576]
Quoting RedTeam98
Germany will find a way. We do worry about autumn, still time to arrange new deals. Canada anounced will increase exports. Also a deal is in progress with Venezuela, even is not as good quality. Germany imports of Russian oil now accounted for 25% of German imports, down from 35% before the invasion, and gas imports have been cut to 40% from 55%. Russian hard coal imports were down to 25% from 50% before the invasion. Good luck
2023 with new Congress and Senate I see enough of votes to override a veto on new Energy policy .
  • #10,229
  • Mar 25, 2022 4:40pm Mar 25, 2022 4:40pm
$200 oil would be a political disaster so the current administration is going to do everything in it's power to prevent that. There is also the Federal reserve to factor in. The last 10 out of 13 periods in which the Fed tightened money policy, recessions were a result. This coming recession is almost 100% guaranteed as there is sky high inflation to be subdued purposefully by more aggressive tightening to come. Oh yes, it will have a sudden and profound effect on oil as well when the stock market finally cracks and liquidity is sucked out in an instant.
Banks are not lending, rising rates, stagnant home purchases, sub-prime auto loan defaults, wheat bushels are to the moon now, on and on so many warning signs a soft landing is not in the cards.
I'll be a dip buyer on oil also but smaller size because during earnings season for Q1 whether these companies do well or not the market is going to sniff out weak forward guidance due to inflated costs for fuel, transport and materials. A crash is coming, be nimble.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,230
  • Mar 26, 2022 1:47pm Mar 26, 2022 1:47pm
$105 next week. Price predicted.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,231
  • Mar 26, 2022 8:16pm Mar 26, 2022 8:16pm
Quoting Temujin
$200 oil would be a political disaster... A crash is coming, be nimble.
Quoting Temujin
$105 next week. Price predicted.
Interesting posts. WTI or Brent, and which month? Do you have a chart re current price, which is your reference., or even a number?
"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
  • #10,232
  • Mar 26, 2022 8:27pm Mar 26, 2022 8:27pm
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"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
  • #10,233
  • Mar 27, 2022 4:27am Mar 27, 2022 4:27am
Quoting yani38
{quote} {quote} Interesting posts. WTI or Brent, and which month? Do you have a chart re current price, which is your reference., or even a number?

So just now 10 hours before the futures open it was reported that a deal with Iran is NOT arriving very fast which is the opposite of what was reported last week. This should give some support for oil but it is temporary. Highs are getting lower 116 114, 112 last week. The 100 MA line on the H4 comes in at 105 Which is really a weekly support level.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,234
  • Mar 27, 2022 5:45am Mar 27, 2022 5:45am
[quote=Temujin;13947192]{quote}
it was reported that a deal with Iran is NOT arriving very fast which is the opposite of what was reported last week.

Iran nuclear deal is imminent.
On Saturday EU Iran deal was close to an agreement, with only a few issues left, which should take couple of days to resolve.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eus-...al-very-close/
  • #10,235
  • Mar 27, 2022 8:48am Mar 27, 2022 8:48am
[quote=Jolita;13947212]
Quoting Temujin
{quote} it was reported that a deal with Iran is NOT arriving very fast which is the opposite of what was reported last week. Iran nuclear deal is imminent. On Saturday EU Iran deal was close to an agreement, with only a few issues left, which should take couple of days to resolve. https://www.politico.eu/article/eus-...al-very-close/
OPEC also has a meeting THU so production could be increased. I don't like shorting oil but $112 is looking expensive with the Iran deal and this meeting coming up.
Just speculation on my part but it could go higher past $112 by Wednesday's inventory numbers and then THU or FRI just TANK if OPEC increases production. Banks will try to leave traders holding the bag above $113 and suddenly it could plummet to below $105. A very tricky week.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,236
  • Mar 27, 2022 1:07pm Mar 27, 2022 1:07pm
Shanghai just went on full COVID lockdown. Futures open in a couple hours.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,237
  • Edited 3:46pm Mar 27, 2022 1:42pm | Edited 3:46pm
Quoting Temujin
Shanghai just went on full COVID lockdown. Futures open in a couple hours.
Second city under lockdown.
Changhai has population of 25mln, will be partial lockdown, one side of the river.

UK cases are high, currently 4mln infections, greater then previously, only symptoms are mild.

Not again!
  • #10,238
  • Mar 27, 2022 4:10pm Mar 27, 2022 4:10pm
Quoting princegolds
hello team! Im an active WTI Crude oil traders from past 5 years now. I only trade oil, I spent 1.5 years trading demo on oil understanding its behavior. Let me know if I can help here.
I'm short at $111.75 for a weekly expiration. Will buy the dip in the NY session for a day trade. Welcome aboard! For me the theme is bearish this week. OPEC, IRAN deal, Shanghai COVID lockdown.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,239
  • Mar 27, 2022 4:17pm Mar 27, 2022 4:17pm
USD/CAD showing signs of life finally after being down 9 straight sessions, an inverse correlation and indicator oil is about to sell off some.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,240
  • Mar 27, 2022 5:01pm Mar 27, 2022 5:01pm
Quoting Jolita
{quote} Second city under lockdown. Changhai has population of 25mln, will be partial lockdown, one side of the river. UK cases are high, currently 4mln infections, greater then previously, only symptoms are mild. Not again!
Yes, simply terrible : (
"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
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