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The Swamp

  • #97,961
  • Mar 25, 2022 3:52pm Mar 25, 2022 3:52pm
Quoting gatorinla
I closed the bulk of eu shorts. I may regret. I have a gold long still. I also just longed the cad. tp 1.2519. Do it all over next week. I left a pending eu short at 1034, just in case.
closed Cad -10 pips
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,962
  • Mar 25, 2022 3:55pm Mar 25, 2022 3:55pm
Quoting gatorinla
I give it 50/50 the eu drops to -0971/66 before close.
It didnt drop. See if it recovers above 0989. It will close below 1208 1150 1088 and 1034..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,963
  • Mar 25, 2022 4:09pm Mar 25, 2022 4:09pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It didnt drop. See if it recovers above 0989. It will close below 1208 1150 1088 and 1034..
I have close below 0985. Bearish to me. I do expect a retest of daily lows (083x/084x) next week. I may be wrong.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #97,964
  • Edited 4:43pm Mar 25, 2022 4:30pm | Edited 4:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It didnt drop. See if it recovers above 0989. It will close below 1208 1150 1088 and 1034..
Its going to need a month close below..

The day closed below 0989... That's bearish for 0966/71. Had it closed below 0966. I would be bearish for 0921. But the month still can take all these out next week. It did close below a bunch of key levels.

It just depends on the month close. It will show a strong bear, or a weaker bear. Is my guess. Its on the way to 0.8. I think 0934 may start being relevant. But maybe more as time goes on. I think the same about 1081.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,965
  • Mar 25, 2022 4:47pm Mar 25, 2022 4:47pm
Quoting Boulder
COT report on 3/22.. hedge funds added Eur longs this week {image}
It appears they are as co fused as the retail trader Joe out there, flip flopping every week. Lol...
  • #97,966
  • Mar 25, 2022 5:01pm Mar 25, 2022 5:01pm
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} It appears they are as co fused as the retail trader Joe out there, flip flopping every week. Lol...
They closed almost 41k long last week. This week added 5k.
That was big last week.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #97,967
  • Edited 9:28pm Mar 25, 2022 7:34pm | Edited 9:28pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Its going to need a month close below.. The day closed below 0989... That's bearish for 0966/71. Had it closed below 0966. I would be bearish for 0921. But the month still can take all these out next week. It did close below a bunch of key levels. It just depends on the month close. It will show a strong bear, or a weaker bear. Is my guess. Its on the way to 0.8. I think 0934 may start being relevant. But maybe more as time goes on. I think the same about 1081. {image}
OMG.. Looking back my old post. July 2022 will be 5 years for me following you, Gator... .. I have never imagined what I have today... what an incredible journey....I am living my dream....
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post10547749
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  • #97,968
  • Mar 25, 2022 8:22pm Mar 25, 2022 8:22pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} OMG.. Looking back my old post. July 2022 will be 5 years for me following you, Gator... .. I have never imagined what I have today... what an incredible journey....I am living my dream...{image}
Yeah, and i learned how to cook shrimp fried rice. I did it today.. It was good,,,,,,, Now we have to work on buying homes all over the world. Trade and travel. The usd going up. This may be the time to collect houses with cheap usd swap.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,969
  • Mar 25, 2022 11:11pm Mar 25, 2022 11:11pm
Quoting saninvestor
{quote} They closed almost 41k long last week. This week added 5k. That was big last week.
Yeah. Which shows they also lose and are sometimes scratching their heads like random trader Joe. That's comforting. Lol...
  • #97,970
  • Mar 26, 2022 12:41pm Mar 26, 2022 12:41pm
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Yeah. Which shows they also lose and are sometimes scratching their heads like random trader Joe. That's comforting. Lol...
Nobody has a winning record every day. Nobody has a winning record every week. Its a total sum game. Wash rinse. repeat and move on.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,971
  • Mar 26, 2022 1:18pm Mar 26, 2022 1:18pm
Quoting gatorinla
4h close R.. See it on 5 min and it will make more sense. If you scalp,, your should know this. {image} {image} {image}
Its getting close to Q ends. Early Friday 1033.6 (1036.x) was tested. Bears held it. Next week 1.0898 may be tested again. Maybe even 1.0833.5. These may become R. A q close below would make this a stronger R. These are Q closes.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,972
  • Mar 27, 2022 5:29am Mar 27, 2022 5:29am
Quoting Boulder
COT report on 3/22.. hedge funds added Eur longs this week {image}
morning
very strange.
thinking of so many killed in action on a simple range
i was also affected this week

as PA and dumb headlines with nuclear attacks' were bottoms - so this i would say is bullish
and we didn't make a new low.


on the other note Friday action was bearish - especially since we run to 1.105 area resistance and then we could not break it

i would say just a guess. we open and trade lower and we push into higher prices as we close the month trimester ...

not sure if it's possible on practice but theoretically i think the fight is to get out of USD so they don't have such a powerful weapon
we've read into dollar being replace in trades with yuan, euro ... so the fight is on.

the only candidate is yuan but dollar does have a big factor being the world reserve

also interesting to see this map, since we are most of us here with western influence either European or US a lot of the world is not against Russia in practice so this alliance of China and the rest of country's that did not sanction Russia is very big
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #97,973
  • Mar 27, 2022 5:59am Mar 27, 2022 5:59am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Its getting close to Q ends. Early Friday 1033.6 (1036.x) was tested. Bears held it. Next week 1.0898 may be tested again. Maybe even 1.0833.5. These may become R. A q close below would make this a stronger R. These are Q closes. {image} {image} {image}
The Q are in yellow. The 50% mark between at 0966. Support seems to hold at the 50% mark. Bears need to close below it. Months ago I showed the year close before this 450ish pip drop. Closing below 0898 is likely more drop. Below 0835 stronger. The next Q level below at 1.0520. other supports for other reasons before those. A q close below 1.0835 still points down. But it may still struggle somewhere down there. 1.0835 is probably the last big one above 1.0. But is failed to reach 1.0 in the past. This time it has better fundis for bears. It hasn't reached 1.0721. This is a spot I see can hold some support. We will see how it acts if it gets there. We can also see if 0921 acts as R later. Along with 0898. 0921/29 may hold the wicks above 0898 down. This Q close should show some future. Below 1208 and 1088 I dont think it will be bullish. Stuck between 1.0898/35 and 1088 Closed. That may be more sideways.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,974
  • Mar 27, 2022 6:33am Mar 27, 2022 6:33am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} morning very strange. thinking of so many killed in action on a simple range i was also affected this week as PA and dumb headlines with nuclear attacks' were bottoms - so this i would say is bullish and we didn't make a new low. on the other note Friday action was bearish - especially since we run to 1.105 area resistance and then we could not break it i would say just a guess. we open and trade lower and we push into higher prices as we close the month trimester ... not sure if it's possible on practice but theoretically i think the fight...
China cant grow enough food for itself. China has a lack of clean water. China has polluted its aquifers. Much of its once farmland is too polluted to plant crops in. China has a growing desert. China is about to pay much more for food. China's fast growth destroyed much of its best resources (fresh water and dirt). With 1.4 billion to feed. Going forward just gets worse.

China has a potential housing bubble many times worse than the U.S. bubble in 2008.

A lack of oil/food. Makes China have to import all the things it dont have. That all worked fine 25/40 years ago. But the piper has to be paid. Now you have a middle class, who wants to eat meat. With hundreds of ghost city's larger than most cities in the west. Many only 20% full. Most of China's middle class are invested in this bubble. This food inflation coming with possible shortages. Will weigh on those who import food. It will weigh on none food China imports. Russia has opened a big hole in Chinas lack of food. Let it all settle out. Farmers growing soybean for hog food. May switch to wheat. Because of the wheat prices rising. China gets screwed with the wheat first. And later with the spike when soybeans are not planted (replaced by wheat planting). Followed by hog prices (high soy prices for hog food). Food inflation to China is coming. And that takes away discretionary spending from one of the worlds largest middle classes. China is 1980s Japan. Except China has defense spending. Defense spending may take a back seat to food cost. I did omit coved. Its also weighing on China. A mule that shits fast, dont shit long.

This virus has made many U.S, manufactures realize they need domestic suppliers (supply chain). More U.S. factories are coming to the U.S.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,975
  • Mar 27, 2022 7:03am Mar 27, 2022 7:03am
Russia opened a big hole.. Fertilizer/wheat and all things connected etc..

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-e...bal-fertiliser

Here is a old article concerning a food shortage in China. Its unrelated to wheat/fertilizer/Russia/Ukraine back then. But its related now to what China officials fear then. About a food shortage.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsl...uch-about-food
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,976
  • Mar 27, 2022 8:42am Mar 27, 2022 8:42am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} morning very strange. thinking of so many killed in action on a simple range i was also affected this week as PA and dumb headlines with nuclear attacks' were bottoms - so this i would say is bullish and we didn't make a new low. on the other note Friday action was bearish - especially since we run to 1.105 area resistance and then we could not break it i would say just a guess. we open and trade lower and we push into higher prices as we close the month trimester ... not sure if it's possible on practice but theoretically i think the fight...
This week, its month end and quarter end rebalancing, expect volatility..
I am preparing for the choppy price action.......
  • #97,977
  • Mar 27, 2022 8:58am Mar 27, 2022 8:58am
lol.. I see a mermaid . then a donkey...I don't see fish..
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  • #97,978
  • Mar 27, 2022 9:20am Mar 27, 2022 9:20am
Quoting Boulder
lol.. I see a mermaid . then a donkey...I don't see fish.. {image}
I dont see a fish, or mermaid (At least if a mermaid, more like a walrus I see). I do see a head of Jack ass. Maybe that's the moral of the story.

BTW are mermaids all female?. Are Cockroaches all male? I wonder about these things. It keeps me up at night.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,979
  • Mar 27, 2022 10:11am Mar 27, 2022 10:11am
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  • #97,980
  • Mar 27, 2022 11:51am Mar 27, 2022 11:51am
Quoting Boulder
lol.. I see a mermaid . then a donkey...I don't see fish.. {image}
Seal and a Kangaroo strange..
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