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Brent Crude Oil
The price hits $130 for the first time since 2012

Silver may grow
On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of 3 formed, and a downward correction developed as the wave (2) of 3, within which the wave C of (2) formed. Now, the development of the third wave (3) of 3 has started, within which the first wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) formed, a local correction has started to develop as the wave ii of 1 of (3).

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the price will grow to the levels of 27.00–28.40. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 23.2.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

USDJPY is in a correction, a fall is possible.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 of (1) develops, within which the wave iii of 3 formed. Now, a downward correction is developing as the fourth wave iv of 3, within which the wave of the lower level (а) of iv has formed, the correctional wave (b) of iv has ended, and the wave (c) of iv is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the levels of 113 – 111.9. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 116.3.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

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GBPUSD, the pound is updating local highs

The British pound is trading with the uptrend against the US currency during the morning session, updating local highs from March 4.

Eurozone countries found themselves in a vulnerable position due to the developing crisis around Ukraine. The European authorities are preparing a new package of sanctions against the Russian economy, which may include significant restrictions or even a complete embargo on energy imports. This will lead to explosive inflation in commodity markets and call into question the ability to ensure energy security. Undoubtedly, high oil and gas prices will have an extremely negative impact on the UK economy, but London today is much less dependent on imports from the Russian Federation, and therefore joined the embargo initiated by the United States earlier.

Resistance levels: 1.33, 1.335, 1.3435, 1.35.
Support levels: 1.325, 1.32, 1.31, 1.305.


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Gold, a backlash against the "hawkish" rhetoric of the US Fed
The official said that the regulator is ready to raise the rate immediately by 50 basis points at one or more of the next meetings and will soon launch a program to reduce the balance sheet, according to the latest estimates, reaching 9T dollars. Also, The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts forecast two adjustments of 50 basis points at once from the next meeting and then four increases of 25 basis points before the end of the year. The "hawkish" tone of Powell's remarks spurred US bonds higher and affected the bond market, with the US dollar index turning sideways around 98.500 amid heightened investor attention to risky assets and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds reached 2.81%. Against this background, gold has expectedly declined, although the demand for shelter assets has generally remained very high in recent days.

The metal is supported by the expectations of new packages of EU sanctions against the Russian economy. This week, EU leaders will meet to discuss the fifth package of restrictive measures that could include a broader ban on Russian energy imports. It is worth noting that there is no single position on this issue: Germany opposes a complete ban while not excluding the possibility of finding alternatives.

Resistance levels: 1930, 1952.5, 1974.2, 2000.
Support levels: 1900, 1877.6, 1860, 1840.



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Brent Crude Oil, "black gold" returned to growth

Brent Crude Oil quotes continue to recover after a significant correction last week and are currently in the 116.70 area.

Fears that China will seriously reduce energy consumption due to a new outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic have not yet been justified, and peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have stalled, which again brought price support factors back to the fore. The possibility of new sanctions against Russian oil supplies and the lack of progress on the "nuclear deal" with Iran, which the market has been waiting for several weeks, is acting as a catalyst for the demand that is currently impossible to cover since the largest producers, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are not able to quickly increase production. Also, the oil infrastructure of Saudi Arabia is periodically attacked by the Yemeni Houthis, which creates problems for the export of "black gold" to the market.

Among the short-term factors for the growth of the trading instrument, the American Petroleum Institute (API) report published yesterday recorded a reduction in US inventories by 4.280M barrels at once instead of the expected growth by 0.025M barrels and a reduction in oil exports via the Caspian pipeline by 1.0M barrels per days due to damage requiring repair. The likely refusal of the EU countries to impose an embargo on supplies from Russia cannot seriously slow down the growth of quotations. It is already being taken into account by the market, as the leader of the European economy, Germany, opposes such measures.

Resistance levels: 117, 125, 132.
Support levels: 110.7, 100, 92.8.


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USDCHF, trading within the global ascending channel

The Swiss currency is slowly losing its strong position against the US dollar, trading around 0.9344.
Yesterday, the President of the country, Ignazio Cassis, addressed the nation with the rationale for the country's refusal of a neutral position and the imposition of sanctions against the Russian Federation against the backdrop of a special military operation in Ukraine. According to Cassis, this decision could have negative consequences for the economy, including higher utility prices due to high dependence on Russian gas and oil, accelerated inflation due to disruptions in supply chains, and retaliatory sanctions from the Russian Federation. Finally, the franc will remain a shelter asset, which will harm exports.

On the global chart of the asset, the price is moving within the global ascending channel, approaching the resistance line. Technical indicators keep a stable buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram trades in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 0.937, 0.95.
Support levels: 0.9302, 0.9151.



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EURUSD, ECB expects higher inflation

The EURUSD pair is moving within a corrective trend around 1.1033. Yesterday, the instrument traded with increased volatility amid the rhetoric of European Central Bank (ECB) officials.

Thus, the head of the regulator, Christine Lagarde, noted that in matters of financial stability, the financial authorities still have two main scenarios for the development of events: the key one, which assumes inflation during the year at 5.1%, and the alternative one, which does not exclude the possibility of increasing the figure to 7%. Tomorrow March index of consumer confidence will be published, and analysts expect a decline to the values of last fall around –12.9 points.

Meanwhile, the USD Index is trading around 98.500. Investors continue to react to the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, who said that he does not rule out raising interest rates by 50 basis points at the next meeting if the situation in the economy requires it. The official noted that the impact of monetary policy on inflation is still uncertain, as it is not fully known how energy and food prices will behave, which have already risen to historical values.

Resistance levels: 1.112, 1.149.
Support levels: 1.098, 1.08.


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NZDUSD, the instrument retreats from local highs

The New Zealand dollar shows the development of downward corrective trend in tandem with the US currency during the Asian session, again testing the level of 0.695 for a breakdown. The NZDUSD pair has been retreating from its local highs since November 2021 without testing the strong resistance at 0.7 for a breakout.

The development of the "bearish" dynamics on the instrument is supported by technical factors, while the position of the US currency on the market changes slightly and remains quite strong against the backdrop of worsening economic prospects as the conflict over Ukraine, where Russian troops continue to conduct a special military operation, develops. Western countries are increasing sanctions pressure on the Russian economy, despite the noticeable back-effect of restrictions. The most important issue at the moment remains a potential embargo on Russian energy imports, which is likely to provoke a sharp complication of the situation in the European energy sector and lead to even greater inflationary pressures.

The positions of the New Zealand dollar are quite strong against the backdrop of trends in commodity areas. At the same time, analysts are paying attention to new outbreaks of coronavirus in New Zealand. Over the past day, more than 18K new cases of infection were detected in the country. Despite the pandemic, New Zealand's GDP returned to growth in the last quarter of 2021, but the increase was only 3.0%, falling short of economists' expectations of growth of 3.2%.

Resistance levels: 0.7, 0.704, 0.71, 0.715.
Support levels: 0.6924, 0.69, 0.6866, 0.684.


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Silver, the price is consolidating near 25

Silver prices show a moderate decline during the Asian session, correcting after a fairly strong increase the day before on the back of lower yields and risk aversion in financial markets. However, the USD Index is rising for the second day in a row, renewing an intraday high around 98.800, adding 0.14%. XAG/USD is again testing 25 for a breakdown; however, there are not so many drivers for the development of the "bearish" trend.

The "hawkish" rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve had only a brief downward effect on safe-haven assets, after which the demand for silver, gold and a number of other trading instruments began to recover again. Traders are concerned about the uncertainty posed by the conflict in Eastern Europe ahead of US President Biden's meeting with his North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies in Brussels. The special military operation carried out by Russian troops in Ukraine has been going on for a month already, while it is still premature to talk about the prospects for its completion. The peace talks, which continue to this day, have not led to any clear results due to the cardinal contradictions in the positions of the parties.

At the end of the week, investors expect an emergency EU summit to consider new sanctions against the Russian economy. The focus will be on the issue of a possible embargo on energy supplies from the Russian Federation to the EU countries. In addition, according to US Senator John Cornyn, he met with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to discuss sanctions on Russian gold.

Resistance levels: 25.35, 25.58, 26, 26.27.
Support levels: 25, 24.67, 24.42, 24.


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Germany's energy sector faces new challenges

The key news for the market is the statement of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, who instructed to convert all payments for natural gas supplies into rubles as soon as possible, and for the first time, the new technology will be tested in Europe. It will create some difficulties for buyers.

According to German Economy Minister Robert Habeck, although the country considers such a decision to be a violation of contractual obligations, it is still impossible to refuse gas supplies from Russia. Later, the head of the Bundestag Committee on Economics and Energy, Klaus Ernst, noted that it is technically possible for Germany to pay for fuel in Russian rubles but this forces energy consumers to bypass their own sanctions restrictions, which is not entirely logical.

On the global chart, the price moves within the correction to the previous decline. Technical indicators keep a sell signal, which has almost been cancelled: indicator Alligator’s EMA fluctuations range narrowed almost completely, and the histogram of the AO oscillator reached the transition level.

Resistance levels: 14555, 15350.
Support levels: 14000, 12600.



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AUDUSD, the uptrend is possible
AUDUSD continues to grow for the second month in a row and has tested 0.75 this week. The positions of the trading instrument are supported by actively growing prices for raw materials exported from Australia, as well as the expectation of an early increase in rates from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

Australia's February Unemployment Rate was released last week. The indicator fell from 4.2% to 4.0% and reached the target level provided by the Australian regulator to start tightening monetary policy. The only limiting factor for the RBA now remains the uncertainty associated with the crisis in Eastern Europe. Today's preliminary March data on business activity in the country turned out to be positive. Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI increased from 57.0 to 57.3 points, and the Services PMI increased from 57.4 to 57.9 points. Experts, however, fear that business activity will begin to decline in the near future, as it will be negatively affected by rising energy prices and the results of the recent flooding in Australia.

The positions of the US dollar look less stable, as investors are concerned about the too weak rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, which is unlikely to contain inflation. Probably, the officials of the regulator understand this as well, since during the week many of them advocated a 0.50% rate correction in the future. This prospect is admitted by the President of San Francisco Fed, Mary Daly, the President of St. Louis Fed, James Bullard, and the Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester; however, the decision to accelerate the rate of increase may not be made by the regulator until May.

Resistance levels: 0.7507, 0.757, 0.789.
Support levels: 0.7415, 0.7325.

Brent Crude Oil, The price may fall.

On the daily chart, the upward wave C develops, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C formed, and a downward correction develops as the second wave 2 of (1) of C. Now, the wave a of 2 is forming, within which the local correction (ii) of a has ended.

If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 77 - 62.5. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 140.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

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Gold, the pair may grow.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 of (5) develops, within which the wave iii of 3 forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of iii is developing, within which the wave iii of (iii) has formed, the correctional wave iv of (iii) has ended, and the development of the wave v of (iii) has started.

If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of $2150 - $2200. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is $1894.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

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FTSE 100, UK stock market is strengthening

The British stock market was supported by yesterday's macroeconomic statistics, according to which the composite index of business activity for March was 59.7 points, which exceeds the analysts' forecast of 58.7 points. The index of business activity in the UK services sector rose to 61.0 points from 60.5 points earlier.
In addition, it is worth noting the period of stabilization in the UK bond market, where 10-year treasury securities were fixed in the region of the highs of the year at the level of 1.638%. In turn, the yield on 20-year conservative bonds reached 1.894%, which is somewhat inferior to 1.957% at the beginning of the week.

The growth leaders in the index are Polymetal International Plc. (+20.73%), Fresnillo Plc. (+5.73%), M&G Plc. (+2.45%). Among the leaders of the decline are Next Plc. (-3.26%), Ferguson Plc. (-3.25%), Schroders Plc. (-3.14%).

Support and resistance
Index quotes continue to trade within the global Expanding Formation pattern. Technical indicators are in a stable buy signal state: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator expands in the direction of growth, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming new ascending bars in the purchase zone.

Support levels: 7384, 7020.
Resistance levels: 7520, 7800.


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GBPJPY Defends 6-year Highs
Despite the sharp rally off its March lows, the GBPJPY cross remained bid and traded half a percent higher today, rising to 160.5.

The whole rally has been fueled by the strength in the USDJPY pair, which surged amid rising yields. However, although the GBPUSD pair has managed to defend the 1.30 support, its share on the GBPJPY vertical movement has been minimal so far.

Yesterday's inflation numbers for February brought another upside surprise as the headline CPI number rose more than expected, printing 6.2% yearly, up from 5.5% previously (and 5.9% forecast), marking the highest inflation reading since March 1992, when inflation was 7.1%. In addition, the core CPI also accelerated faster than thought, rising to 5.2% from 4.4% in January.

Today's data showed that the UK manufacturing PMI declined more than expected in March, dropping to 55.5 from 58 in February. On the other hand, the services sector improved slightly to 61 from 60.5 previously.

Technically speaking, as long as the GBPJPY cross trades above previous highs of 158, the medium and long-term outlooks seem bullish. However, the short-term time frame seems heavily overbought, likely leading to a correction in the following days.

The next resistance will be at yesterday's highs of 161.10; when cleared, we might see another leg higher toward 162.


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USDJPY, US dollar hits highs of the end of 2015

The US dollar continues its strong growth in the USDJPY pair during Asian trading, renewing all-time highs since December 2015 and testing 123 for a breakout. The "bulls" are further supported by a wave of risk aversion that is boosting demand for safe-haven currencies, as well as strong US Treasury yields, which hit a new two-year high of 2.5%, up more than 1 percentage point since early December.

In addition, the exchange rate of the trading instrument is strengthening against the backdrop of the aggressive rhetoric of the US Fed, aimed at combating a record inflation for 40 years, which reached 7.9% in annual terms in February. The regulator launched a cycle of the interest rate hike this month, and in May it may decide to adjust it immediately by 50 or even 75 basis points. It is also expected that in the near future the Fed will begin to reduce its own balance sheet, which, according to the latest estimates, reaches 9 trillion dollars.

The yen gained momentum after the Bank of Japan announced its readiness to purchase an unlimited number of 10-year bonds at 0.25%. The regulator continues to go against the main trend in terms of tightening monetary policy. Due to low inflation, the country's financial authorities have kept the short-term interest rate on commercial bank deposits at -0.1% per annum, and the target yield on ten-year government bonds is near zero. Macroeconomic statistics released last Friday in Japan pointed to the acceleration of inflation in the Tokyo region in March from 1.0% to 1.3%, while the forecast was 1.5%. According to the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, the growth rate of consumer prices may reach 2% in April or later, but this will not be the basis for an immediate reaction from officials.

Resistance levels: 123.5, 124, 124.5, 125.
Support levels: 122.42, 122, 121.4, 120.5.


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