The Equilibrium, a key to success!

Hi Peter,

First of all, thank you for your views and comments. In principle, I accept every other opinion, but that does not necessarily mean that I have to agree. First of all, most numbers quoted in the Forex market are based solely on personal opinions, no matter what number is quoted it will never be accurate. In Germany, brokers are legally obliged to publish the percentage of traders who have lost on their website. Since on average more than 85% of all participants lose there, it can be assumed that the brokers will optimize the legally required number of losing traders to their advantage. I totally agree with you that every trader is responsible for his own destiny. It's a human need for me to explain my personal opinion and experience to people who follow my blog because I feel like I'm helping them. I do this free of charge and voluntarily, with no ulterior motive to enrich myself. I find that traders who have been trading for more than ten years also have an obligation to protect other people from harm through their experience.

However, it doesn't matter if 90%, 80% or 70% of all traders lose, because basically this is just an average number. The average height of a German is 1.80 m, which is also a nonsensical number. The bottom line is that more traders lose than win, and as experienced traders we have an obligation to share our experiences to provide food for thought for the less experienced traders. As I have repeatedly emphasized, the words I have written represent my personal opinion only. I will not discuss it either, because an opinion is an opinion, nothing more and nothing less. By the way, I don't feel offended by your opinion either, since you have the right to have a different opinion than mine. You have also expressed yourself neutrally, which I find very positive. Nonetheless, I still stand by my opinion.

Unfortunately, in our world far too much is discussed instead of doing something. You can see that very nicely in Germany right now. While people are dying in Ukraine, Germany is discussing gender madness. You really have to ask yourself, what kind of world do we actually live in? One can only hope that our youth will learn from our mistakes and do better in the future.

All the best for the future
Greetings Michae

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{quote} Hi Peter, First of all, thank you for your views and comments. In principle, I accept every other opinion, but that does not necessarily mean that I have to agree. First of all, most numbers quoted in the Forex market are based solely on personal opinions, no matter what number is quoted it will never be accurate. In Germany, brokers are legally obliged to publish the percentage of traders who have lost on their website. Since on average more than 85% of all participants lose there, it can be assumed that the brokers will optimize the legally...

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Michael,

I do not know if I should write anything further here in response, as it may clutter your thread, but I sense something short and quick needs to be added here. Entrenched in both what you and I have said, needs attention. I have found that an opinion turns into something more, of its own doing, as an investigation progresses further and further along. People need to appreciate that this happens naturally without any involvement from 'the person'. Of course I do not believe that everything I say is "right" or " the truth", that would be folly. What needs to be understood by more people, is the nature of why they start to investigate something, their motive for doing this. An eg would be, in what you said about German brokers and 'being legally obligated'. Every colleague I have had who was or is involved in brokerage, has made it clear to me that it is a business and being so, always has 2 shades to its position. Unfortunately when someone puts people and "money" in the same room, the game changes. So legal is usually a shade rather than a definite. What I have noticed on this and other sites, is a repeating theme = opinion held up as fact/real. (Not specifically suggesting you here). I see a lot of myself in you ..... your desire to investigate beyond many of the levies that others are too lazy to look into just as one example. There is a point where a microphone must become a billboard. And an opinion must not be captured but instead be released so it can learn. Grown ups today seem to suffer from "not my problem let someone else deal with it" syndrome. I also see it in the trading culture. So I don't think using the label "trader" is appropriate anymore to describe most people. There is a rite of passage for people to learn and I sense if each person tracked their meandering path, they would find they have not traveled as far as they think or believe. Children always learn from grown ups and grown ups always seem to learn from adults. And adults have learned from Life but never from other's opinions. That's all. I'll stop there. Thank you for accepting my input here.


Peter

Fact = opinion?



Hello dear subscribers,


Today, for once, it's about the exciting topic of opinion. In epistemology, an opinion or conception is understood to mean a form of belief that is different from knowledge and belief. It is absolutely correct that nowadays opinions are declared to be facts and recognized findings are downgraded to opinions. But what is fact and what is just an opinion? Among other things, courts deal with this question, which have to decide whether a statement is only an assessment covered by freedom of expression or an assertion of facts.

First of all, a factual statement can be verified, while an opinion cannot be classified as unequivocally right or wrong. But especially in the stock market environment, we deal with different opinions every day, which ultimately ensure that a price runs up or down. The very essence of the exchange is that anyone who trades there is bound to have a different opinion, otherwise a market buy order could never run into a limit sell order.

Let's take climate protection, for example. In political debates, opinions or unsubstantiated claims are often declared facts and at the same time scientifically recognized findings are demoted to opinions. US President Donald Trump and Brazil's President Bolsonaro have repeatedly claimed that there is no scientific evidence of climate change. This takes climate change down from a fact to an opinion, with the public now believing that this is just a matter of differing opinions. And it is precisely from these different opinions that every person now chooses what suits them best.

First of all, from my point of view, science has a certain share of the blame in this. Have you ever dealt very intensively with scientific papers? Globally, the proportion of scientists is probably around 1%. This group of scientists uses their own language, which is often not clear or understandable for the remaining 99%. Of course, a scientist wants to shine with his research, but one often has the feeling that he writes these papers more for his colleagues than for the other 99% of the people. And now comes the crucial point. What a person does not understand, he would never bring into the world as his own opinion. Perhaps we should start making scientific work understandable for normal people.

Of course, there are also countless scientific works in the field of stock exchanges, but due to the scientific language, they hardly get any attention among traders. We find here an academic paper from 2020, where the predictive power of adaptive candlestick patterns in the forex market (EURUSD) was examined. The finding that there are no clear patterns leading to a positive financial benefit was not surprising.



A candle arises from price and time. The price is created by random market orders entering the market running into the limit orders. At the same time, the random pulling or stacking within the limit orders decides whether a market order will go through or the market order will be held up. A candle is now formed from this price within a fixed time frame. This makes it logical and clear that this candle can only arise by chance. Probably no scientific work would have been needed for this.

The following derivation can now be made from this. In the Forex market, most indicators are calculated from price. Since we know that the price is determined only by chance, we must also assume that the information from the indicators will ultimately bring only a random result. However, this is only my opinion, which has not yet been scientifically verified.

It is said that between two different opinions, the truth always lies in the middle. I don't share this opinion, because in programming there is only 0 or 1. Unfortunately, there are few things in our world that we can judge correctly because of personal reservations. In addition, we are often manipulated. When an employee goes to his manager with his opinion and comes back with his opinion, it is called an exchange of views. That means we value people who speak their minds freshly and openly, provided they mean the same thing as we do.

Of course, freedom means having the right to tell others what they don't want to hear. The pinnacle of stupidity is the art of judging books without ever having read them. Some people find it difficult to think, which is why you judge. For this reason, before one shake his head, he should make sure that he actually have a head.

The problem with opinion is that most people don't have an opinion of their own. Either they have no opinion at all, or they adopt an opinion that suits you best. The challenge is, most of the time when you adopt an opinion, you've missed the chance to check that opinion first. Another problem is that people tend to believe the bad rather than the good.

The greatest power is public opinion. Nobody knows exactly who set it up, nobody questions it and everyone lets itself be influenced by it. As we all know, the crowd is always right. Incidentally, we also see this in the loss ratios in the Forex market . And then there is the very special opinion leader. He doesn't know what he's talking about, but he knows he's always right. Interestingly enough, it is precisely the uneducated who defend their opinion without knowing the exact background. It's like our watches, they run differently and yet you believe that only your own watch shows the right time. This means that every person declares their personal reality to be the correct reality.

And finally, there are the people who think mostly about what other people think of them. They know very well that in order to get enemies, it is not necessary to declare war. It's enough to just say what's on your mind. And that's the big problem in our lives. Because first man learns to walk and speak, later he learns to sit still and keep his mouth shut.

Of course, you can also make yourself unpopular at first in order to be taken seriously afterwards. But those who want to hear the truth should first ask themselves whether they can endure the truth.

But what solution could there be to ensure that opinions are handled well in the future?

Well first of all I believe that you should question all your opinions on a regular basis if you want to develop as a person. If you say A, you don't automatically have to say B, because you can also tell that A was wrong. Another interesting aspect is that women's hunches are usually more reliable than men's knowledge.

The saying: "How should I know what I'm thinking before I hear what I'm saying" sums it up perfectly. I have to question my opinion without questioning myself. Because as Konrad Adenauer said so beautifully: "What do I care about my chatter from yesterday, nothing prevents me from getting a little smarter every day".

The German word for opinion is "Meinung". The first syllable means mine and that says it all. Unfortunately, our life is always about being right, about being the better and the stronger. But unfortunately we are not, because there are 8 billion people in the world and from a statistical point of view there will always be someone who is better or faster than ourselves. That means we should treat other people with a little more respect in the future. As you move up the corporate ladder, you should be friendly to everyone because you will meet them again on the way down.

The statements made in this article only reflect my personal opinion, which is neither scientifically tested nor certified. As a human being, I allow myself to change or adapt my opinion at any time.


With a wink I wish you a very successful trading week


Best regards, Michael

Calculate trend reversal in advance


Hello dear bionic traders,

In the last post we learned about the benefits of the Bionic Candle and how to identify invisible price zones. Today we talk about some backgrounds that are crucial to generate future market advantages from it. In a normal candle chart, we cannot see the current strength within the candle. We will take a closer look at why this works with the Bionic candle. In addition, we will identify other key zones on the chart and see how the price reacts to them.



I wish you a relaxing weekend

Greetings Michael

Part time strategy to become a successful trader

Hello dear bionic traders,

The dream of many people, they want to become a successful trader. But what's the smartest way to go about it? Do I jump in at the deep end and start full-time immediately, or is there a good alternative that offers me the necessary security and maybe even makes me profitable in 3 years. In addition, I will give you some important information that will significantly increase your probability of winning. For this I analyzed some 100,000 candles, the result is very interesting and will help you in trading.



I wish you a successful trading week

Greetings Michael

Trading is cheating?


Hello dear algorithm traders,


there are always voices claiming that trading is mostly cheating as most traders lose. When looking for a possible scammer, we need to analyze the foreign exchange market. First of all, a retail trader needs a broker, who in turn passes on the orders to a liquidity provider, which allows direct access to the foreign exchange market. In the foreign exchange market, the respective orders then meet the larger market participants. The processes are similar in the futures or stock market. This gives five candidates for possible fraud or excessive losses. In today's article, we will review these five target groups with the help of data, facts and figures. Very interesting things come to light, which even I would not have expected beforehand.



I wish you a great weekend and continued success in trading

Best regards Michael

Part time, 100 times less losses

Hello dear bionic traders,

Today I will show you how a part-time trader who tries to break even, loses only € 160 instead of € 16,000 and has the same learning effect as someone who has lost € 15,480 more. In addition, I will show you exactly how you can reach your breakeven point much more efficiently and at what point it makes sense to recoup your losses. We will also look at real examples from practice.





I wish you a successful trading week

Greetings Michael

Maximum loss of € 160 as a scalper


Hello dear algorithm traders,


Today's video is about the most important topic: your breakeven point, which 90% of all traders have not yet reached. I will show you exactly which points you have to pay attention to in order to reach this breakeven point as efficiently and quickly as possible. I will also present you with practice results from a trading beginner who only started trading as a part-time scalper a few weeks ago. Very interesting insights come to light that will certainly save you a lot of money in the future.




I wish you a great week and continued success in trading

Best regards Michael

Margin Call


Hello dear algorithm traders,

Today's post is about leverage and margin and what exactly you need to do to avoid a future margin call. We deal with the question to what extent high leverage is dangerous and what advantages and disadvantages result from margin trading. Is a lever a loan and why can you achieve such a supposedly high return with it? Overall, we will come to some results that many of you would not have expected.




I wish you a great week and continued success in trading

Best regards Michael

Trading with debt capital, demo or real money

Hello dear algorithm traders,

Today we're making a big movie, because we will compare the differences between debt capital, demo and real money trading. We look at the extent to which demo trading is helpful and also talk about the different emotions that we encounter every day in trading. We will also look at how we can optimally train these emotions in the future. In the overall result, you will at the end see a clear procedure with which you will have your emotions under control in the future. The choice is yours, you can choose to trade, where your chances of success are around 10%. Or you opt for self-employment where the chances of success are 5 times higher, at around 50%. Are you aware of these probabilities and still want to decide to trade?

Inserted Video

I wish you a great week and continued success in trading

Best regards Michael

Future versus Forex

Hello dear algorithm traders,


now that futures have also slipped into BaFin's focus, we will have to reckon with significant regulations in this area in the coming months. Of course, there are already various future brokers who, together with their trading coaches, want to calm the heated spirits and promise you a future solution. Don't worry you will be able to continue trading futures with us in the future. The question is always at what price? For this reason, today we will compare the already regulated forex market with the future regulated futures market.




I wish you a great week and continued success in trading

Best regards Michael

Read charts correctly

Hello dear algorithm traders,

Many traders spend their lives searching for the holy grail. You dream of recognizing every turning point in advance as possible in order to earn a lot of money with it. In today's post we talk about how a trader is able to read the charts correctly over the long term. An important topic here are the price gaps that we encounter again and again in the chart. With the stock market wisdom that 90% of all price gaps are closed again, traders often get involved in daring trade executions. In today's post we look at the largest gap in EURUSD that has emerged in the last ten years and how traders have reacted to it. At the end we look at an outbreak and how you can clearly identify it beforehand.



I wish you a great week and continued success in trading

Best regards Michael

Sensation in the forex market

Hello dear bionic traders,

Since 1984, the World Cup Trading Championships (WCTC) has held a World Trader Championship every year. There are different categories and I only compared 3 categories stocks, forex and future. Only real money is traded over a period of one year. The returns are not representative of all traders, but provide a rough overview as all participants had the same conditions. The average return across all categories is 190% per year. It should be clear to everyone that such a return can only be achieved with an increased willingness to take risks in trading.



Stocks
In the area of equities, an average performance of 81% per year was achieved within 11 years

Forex
In the Forex sector, an average performance of 133% per year was achieved within 12 years

Futures
In the futures area, an average performance of 339% per year was achieved within 34 years

In my opinion, the stocks market is one of the most difficult markets to trade on the stock exchange, because a lot of background information is necessary for good performance. A return of over 81% is an absolute top performance in this market segment. Now let's compare the forex market to the futures market. Basically, it is noticeable that the yield in the futures market is 2.5 times as high as in the forex market. However, it must be noted that many beginners trade in the forex market, while the futures market is used almost exclusively by professionals and experienced traders. Many traders who started out in the forex market are now trading in the futures market. Based on the figures, it can be assumed that trading in the stock market is almost 4 times harder and in the forex market 2.5 times more difficult than in the futures market. This is fundamentally an important finding when trading in one of these markets.



Last year there was a small sensation in the field of the World Cup. It was the first time in the history of this world championship that a forex trader had more returns in one year than a futures trader. But this return was not an isolated case, because even in the following places 2-5, the forex traders were able to achieve significantly higher returns than their future colleagues. The average return for the top five places was 169.3% in the futures market, while the forex market returned 232.1%. That's a whopping 37% more returns. It was noticeable that the top five places in the forex market came from European countries. So far, the futures market has been able to clearly defend its supremacy, but that could possibly change in the future. And nobody should claim that the Forex market is only a market for beginners. Of course, one swallow doesn't make a summer, but I think many will now realize that the forex traders will be a force to be reckoned with in the future.

I wish you a successful trading week.

Best regards, Michael

Big Player Ping Pong Strategy


Hello dear algorithm traders,


In today's video, we're going to look at a new strategy used by the big players that has been tested over and over for the past few months. In this way, the big players increase their efficiency in trading on the one hand and reduce their risk at the same time. In one of my last videos: "How do big players achieve returns" and "extreme currency exchange", we have already dealt with different strategies of the big players, which are increasingly violating the requirements of the stock exchange supervisory authorities. The supervisory authorities have no chance of identifying these violations, because how do they intend to check container loads full of paper with the orders submitted in the foreseeable future? In addition, it is very difficult to review the algorithms in place at this point in time to understand their impact on each order execution.



I wish you a lot of fun and good luck in trading

Best regards Michael

The SWOT analysis


Hello dear traders,


In today's post, we're starting a new series of interesting information that so far many traders have neglected. The background: We traders often focus on systems, setups, algorithms or strategies without thinking about ourselves first. Success is often so close to us, but we don't see the forest for the trees. That is why we doggedly concentrate on things that actually do not get us any further. Not the volume or a new indicator ensure our breakthrough, but only the knowledge about ourselves. So we are daily in search of the holy grail, without knowing that it is right in front of our noses. In the frenzy of defeating the market, we forget the crucial point, who we are ourselves.




I wish you a lot of fun and good luck in trading

Best regards Michael

Another very relevant post, Michael. Thanks, as always.

Hello Lem, thank you very much, I'm glad if this information helps you. I wish you a nice Easter and look forward to hearing from you again soon. Best regards, Michael

You too, Michael. Hope you have a lovely Easter weekend.

Protection from a Black Swan


Hello dear algorithm traders,


In today's post, we're going to talk about how we can protect ourselves from possible losses on a black swan. Unexpected and improbable events with a significant impact are referred to in economics as black swans. There have been massive price losses on the stock exchange in recent years, which have driven many traders to ruin. Of course, such black swan events cannot be predicted and that is exactly why it is important to achieve the highest possible level of security in order to be optimally protected in the “worst case”. There are a few ways to do that, which we'll cover in this video.



I wish you a lot of fun and good luck in trading

Best regards Michael

Great topic, Mate. Looking forward to following this series. Cheers!