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Trading PlanetX & Oscillators

  • #321
  • Mar 21, 2022 2:06am Mar 21, 2022 2:06am
Quoting bishopdotun
{quote} I wouldn't argue that with you. Take it with a grain of salt but I can tell you that a strategy with 30% win rate can be profitable with the right MM approach.
Please show me this MM, which gives profits at 30% win rate.
Just saying will not do.
.ex4/.ex5 files can't be fixed or modified / I'm not a coder!
  • #322
  • Mar 21, 2022 2:20am Mar 21, 2022 2:20am
Quoting bishopdotun
What if the RR is too small?
If RR is too small, that means there is no good opportunity, which means that taking a trade is a bad deal.
Which means that the trader, who is making bad deals, is on the side of wishing.
.ex4/.ex5 files can't be fixed or modified / I'm not a coder!
  • #323
  • Mar 21, 2022 2:34am Mar 21, 2022 2:34am
@bishopdotun,
I absolutely agree that MM is the Holy Grail!
MM is RR plus things like Kelly Criterion, which can monitor the trader's performance in the account history, and adjust the risk percent according to this performance. A hedge portfolio strategy can further help minimise this risk.
.ex4/.ex5 files can't be fixed or modified / I'm not a coder!
  • #324
  • Edited 3:14am Mar 21, 2022 2:57am | Edited 3:14am
Quoting BestTraderEv
@bishopdotun, I absolutely agree that MM is the Holy Grail! MM is RR plus things like Kelly Criterion, which can monitor the trader's performance in the account history, and adjust the risk percent according to this performance. A hedge portfolio strategy can further help minimise this risk.
If you have read the article about 30% win ratio on tradingview, that article is bullshit.
I can create a spread sheet to show you what will happen in reality if you win 3 out of 10.
It looks nice presented in percents. Translate that to money, and you will understand why that can't work.
Every time you lose 3% (for example), you capital is 3% smaller.
This works as compound loss.
.ex4/.ex5 files can't be fixed or modified / I'm not a coder!
  • #325
  • Mar 21, 2022 3:09am Mar 21, 2022 3:09am
Notes on PlanetX and Focal Points (SMA Interactions with TF candles)

So far, we have distilled focal points thanks to contributions of R4m, Parisboy, BestTraderEv e.t.c Lot's of theoretical perspectives and jargons. I am more particular about how it helps me to take good trades and bank some profit everyday. While the "experts" are focused on precision of focal points, I am more interested in the interactions of the SMA and how they indicate swings. That's all that matters. Notice I said SMA interactions. The SMA interactions generate focal points. Sometimes, the interactions occur on exactly the same bar while sometimes they occur within neighbouring bars. We want to trade in the direction of those interactions. That's our clue to trade.

How can I make profit from SMA Interactions?
In the previous notes, I shared how to combine them PlanetX and Focal Points. In this post, I am sharing how to use Focal Points independently. It's the same approach.

  1. Apply Focal Points (Swing Option) to any chart (I prefer EURAUD M30. H1 is also OK)
  2. Place a trade every time you see a new focal point printed.
  3. TP is the Candle ATR. SL is at least 2*Candle ATR (I prefer 3. Yes that sounds crazy but I found that to work very well)
  4. Close on opposite signal (If TP or SL has not kicked in)
  5. Don't ignore your instincts and use your eyes (not your heart)


EURAUD M30

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You will immediately notice that the focal points keep you on the right side of the trend for much longer than PlanetX. Neither of the 2 is perfect but I like to explore a trend much longer before i switch direction of trade. I don't like jumping up and down every few bars. When a pair is ranging, you will see that clearly and you can adjust your trading and lot size appropriately or just walk away.
  • #326
  • Mar 21, 2022 3:21am Mar 21, 2022 3:21am
Quoting bishopdotun
TP is the Candle ATR. SL is at least 2*Candle ATR (I prefer 3. Yes that sounds crazy but I found that to work very well).
Not only sounds, but also is.
If you lose 3 profits on one trade, and profit 1/3 of that loss on one trade (if you trade fixed lots), you need 3 profits in the row just to recover the loss.
That's a bad deal!
.ex4/.ex5 files can't be fixed or modified / I'm not a coder!
  • #327
  • Edited 3:36am Mar 21, 2022 3:24am | Edited 3:36am
Quoting BestTraderEv
{quote} If you have read the article about 30% win ratio on tradingview, that article is bullshit. I can create a spread sheet to show you what will happen in reality if you win 3 out of 10. It looks nice presented in percents. Translate that to money, and you will understand why that can't work. Every time you lose 3% (for example), you capital is 3% smaller. This works as compound loss.
Again that's wrong assumption.

You are assuming
- I risk the same account percentage per trade
- That my RR is the same for every trade

You are wrong. Fact is you can't model it that way. I deploy a method that allows me to win variable RR at different times.
  • #328
  • Mar 21, 2022 3:35am Mar 21, 2022 3:35am
Quoting BestTraderEv
{quote} Not only sounds, but also is. If you lose 3 profits on one trade, and profit 1/3 of that loss on one trade (if you trade fixed lots), you need 3 profits in the row just to recover the loss. That's a bad deal!
Winrate matters and also he may cuts losses short when he sees earlier that the Trade likely wont turn out well.

Depending what instruments I trade, my intial SL might be much bigger than Target, but generally I never let the Market get near my intial SL.

Attached Image

This is a FTMO trial... I run a Trial which copies my Trades, because I like to see how I am doing in intervals and that is an easy way to do it for me.

Anyway doesnt matter if you believe me I take those live too or not, it shows even with a negative RR (just slightly of course) you can make a decent amount of money. (The Trial is a starting balance of 200k)
  • #329
  • Mar 21, 2022 3:36am Mar 21, 2022 3:36am
Quoting BestTraderEv
{quote} ......If you lose 3 profits on one trade, and profit 1/3 of that loss on one trade (if you trade fixed lots), you need 3 profits in the row just to recover the loss. That's a bad deal!
Assumptions:

  1. If you lose 3: Pick the chart I showed you. count the number of potential trades. Count the number of SL and TP you would have hit. Check the percentage.
  2. you need 3 profits in the row just to recover the loss: you assumed the 3 will hit stop loss: how convenient. Not exactly. That's why you wont trade blind. You will ensure to be there to exit on a new swing. You will also not trade the same account percentage on every trade. I am not about to school anyone on how that works. That's not the goal of this thread.

I will end this conversation right here. You do you. You think you know everything. You don't my friend. You will have to figure it out yourself. If you are a researcher, I doubt you will do well because before you even started you have reached a dead end conclusion.

Everyone has to choose what works for them. I am sharing what works for me but I wont be teaching it like I am paid to do it. Everyone would have to do the hard work. The tools are here on this thread.

  • #330
  • Mar 21, 2022 3:41am Mar 21, 2022 3:41am
Quoting FundedCoffee
{quote} Winrate matters and also he may cuts losses short when he sees earlier that the Trade likely wont turn out well. Depending what instruments I trade, my intial SL might be much bigger than Target, but generally I never let the Market get near my intial SL. {image} This is a FTMO trial... I run a Trial which copies my Trades, because I like to see how I am doing in intervals and that is an easy way to do it for me. Anyway doesnt matter if you believe me I take those live too or not, it shows even with a negative RR (just slightly of course)...
I may have such Trades:

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But then I get a Trade such as that:

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  • #331
  • Mar 21, 2022 3:44am Mar 21, 2022 3:44am
Anyway, I dont understand why you, BestTraderEv dont just continue Trading whatever way you want and you just ignore this Thread?

Just move on, you have your own Thread that you started, your playground. You can do whatever you want in this one and trade your markers believes.

If this MA stuff is all nonsense or useless for you then no one forces you to stay
  • #332
  • Mar 21, 2022 3:52am Mar 21, 2022 3:52am
Additional charts for consideration

I prefer EURAUD but you can check how well this works across pairs. You don't have to trade all the time. Take a bite and rest if you want.

AUDCAD - M30
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AUDJPY - M30
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AUDUSD - M30
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  • #333
  • Mar 21, 2022 4:21am Mar 21, 2022 4:21am
The problem I am having with the FPs is that they seem to be shown very late, so at least when you are a fast Trader the FP points (if you dont show the MAs) have very little use?

Let me show a trade from Today.

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  • #334
  • Mar 21, 2022 4:33am Mar 21, 2022 4:33am
Quoting FundedCoffee
The problem I am having with the FPs is that they seem to be shown very late, so at least when you are a fast Trader the FP points (if you dont show the MAs) have very little use? Let me show a trade from Today. {image}{image}{image}4168488
Are you using the strict mode or the relaxed mode. Apply the relaxed mode.
  • #335
  • Mar 21, 2022 4:40am Mar 21, 2022 4:40am
Quoting bishopdotun
{quote} Are you using the strict mode or the relaxed mode. Apply the relaxed mode.
I have used the strict mode, I will try the relaxed mode now!
  • #336
  • Mar 21, 2022 5:21am Mar 21, 2022 5:21am
Quoting FundedCoffee
{quote} I have used the strict mode, I will try the relaxed mode now!
Focal Points are not signals or alerts -- that is not how they are used. They are **historical** meeting points of 3 or more SMAs. When the proper setup occurs (see @parisboy's charts) then the **historical** FPs can be used to guesstimate a target price. Again -- the algorithm does not intend for FPs to be used as Entries / Exits. This isn't my idea or even @parisboy's idea -- this is the algorithm that was designed by the rocket engineers that was later adapted for financial instruments.
  • #337
  • Mar 21, 2022 6:05am Mar 21, 2022 6:05am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} Focal Points are not signals or alerts -- that is not how they are used. They are **historical** meeting points of 3 or more SMAs. When the proper setup occurs (see @parisboy's charts) then the **historical** FPs can be used to guesstimate a target price. Again -- the algorithm does not intend for FPs to be used as Entries / Exits. This isn't my idea or even @parisboy's idea -- this is the algorithm that was designed by the rocket engineers that was later adapted for financial instruments.
Yes! I get that, the problem is with the amount of Delay, if my trading day is over and then I see the historical meeting points then its nice to look at, but doesnt help me at all with my Trading and thats what I want from an indicator.

BUT bishopdotun suggested to change from strict to relaxed mode and now the Delay is drastically decreased and its useful for me to look at. The guesstmated Target price was hit before the guesstimated target price got even shown.. which reduces obviously the usage for it for me, the idea of a guestimatted Target is awesome, but at least on LTF during high volatile Market the "strict" mode is too lacking.

It may look differently trading it on HTFs than the 1minute chart.

But again... the relaxed mode does well.
  • #338
  • Edited 6:30am Mar 21, 2022 6:08am | Edited 6:30am
Quoting FundedCoffee
The problem I am having with the FPs is that they seem to be shown very late, so at least when you are a fast Trader the FP points (if you dont show the MAs) have very little use? Let me show a trade from Today. {image}{image}{image}4168488
I quote Bishopdotun "Lot's of theoretical perspectives and jargons. I am more particular about how it helps me to take good trades and bank some profit everyday. While the "experts" are focused on precision of focal points, I am more interested in the interactions of the SMA and how they indicate swings. That's all that matters."


Bishopdotun here and Robots4me some time ago on another thread about TMAEnvelopes play the role of the peasant trader, the feet in the market mud "I am more interested in the interactions of the SMA and how they indicate swings. That's all that matters.""

No it is not. It is not all that matters. We are dealing with rational, mathematical qualities and consequences of (centered) Moving Averages and the automatic, systematic consequences they have on our trading. Focal Points are not magical, mysterious, coming from nowhere. Focal Points are the end result of a mathematical process.

Already in his book profit Magic Hurst (1970) explains that when the Full Period Centered Moving Average , let's say CMA 32 intersects the Half Period Centered Moving Average, hence CMA 16 at the same price bar then we are in the middle of Price Action Swing.

Great ! Then we can calculate with a high degree of probability that Price Action has made a Top or a Low.

Unfortunately for the simple minded guy who has his feet in market mud :

when Price makes its Top CMA 16 is 8 bars behind because of its structural Lag (8 bars) and CMA 32 is 16 bars behind in the middle of the swing (Focal Point 16/32) because of its structural Lag (16 bars)

this means that when CMA 16 makes its Top , Price is already 8 bars sideways or down and when CMA 32 makes also its top Price is already 16 bars sideways or/ down

Basic Focal Points (2 CMA's intersecting at the same price) will ALWAYS be "late", that is the nature of the beast.

But Basic Focal Points confirm you that Price is changing direction (sideways or opposite trend)

Are you interested ? Find you these qualities of Focal Point useful in your trading ?

But Bishopdotun has underlined it will be better if we can use Focal Points to make some money.

This will be the subject of next messages. We are all interested to know "how to bank some profit every day" to quote bishopdotun.
  • #339
  • Mar 21, 2022 6:19am Mar 21, 2022 6:19am
Quoting FundedCoffee
{quote} Yes! I get that, the problem is with the amount of Delay, if my trading day is over and then I see the historical meeting points then its nice to look at, but doesnt help me at all with my Trading and thats what I want from an indicator. BUT bishopdotun suggested to change from strict to relaxed mode and now the Delay is drastically decreased and its useful for me to look at. The guesstmated Target price was hit before the guesstimated target price got even shown.. which reduces obviously the usage for it for me, the idea of a guestimatted...
You're right. But the "relaxed" mode is my invention and is not part of the original theory or algorithm. It's never been tested or traded. At this point it just looks pretty. The original algorithm as presented by @parisboy was developed by rocket scientists and adapted for financial markets decades ago. There is no way my invention over this past weekend can compare. I mean, maybe I'm a genius and when the folks at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory see the PlanetX indicator they will hire me to design their next guided missile system -- though, I wouldn't bet any money. I have yet to explore the original Focal Point algorithm, and that's why I'm not much interested in already fiddling with variations of it.
  • #340
  • Mar 21, 2022 6:29am Mar 21, 2022 6:29am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} You're right. But the "relaxed" mode is my invention and is not part of the original theory or algorithm. It's never been tested or traded. At this point it just looks pretty. The original algorithm as presented by @parisboy was developed by rocket scientists and adapted for financial markets decades ago. There is no way my invention over this past weekend can compare. I mean, maybe I'm a genius and when the folks at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory see the PlanetX indicator they will hire me to design their next guided missile system -- though,...
Yes I understand your point and I am sure there is MUCH more to what Parisboy is doing and what those missle folks were using.

Just as it currently stands, for my trading the relaxed mode has more use to me than the strict mode. It gives a great confirmation/suggestion where the price is more likely headed. Up or Down.

So maybe you are a genius
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