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  • #97,481
  • Mar 18, 2022 4:20pm Mar 18, 2022 4:20pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If I knew what day, they did X. I could take a more educated guess. Now I know what they did before Wednesday (late last week/early this week). I dont know what they did Thursday and Friday (late this week). I assume they were buying. And possibly selling yesterday evening. Sure /i can see when a balance is weighted long or short. If the buys are accumulating more then the shorts over time. They are probably buying. But with each buy someone sold it. So there is a balance. So than it comes down to Cot. The accepted logic being these guys...
Well we can assume that these sells were in the red. They don't sell unless they are staring into the abyss. We also know that today's & yesterday's volume was a fraction of the usual on debt as well as currency markets. They didn't sell any shorts. This makes them much less sure about an upside and looks like they see more downside.
Also open interest was reduced by 73k. That means the euro market got much smaller, about -12% in a week. That is significant. Everyone was reducing positions. There's a lot of uncertainty here, a lot of blood on the street. This is a perfect setup to whipsaw everyone the 'f out. Like a hard spike below 0800 and then bounce hard back to 1490.
  • #97,482
  • Mar 18, 2022 4:49pm Mar 18, 2022 4:49pm
Quoting xav
{quote} Well we can assume that these sells were in the red. They don't sell unless they are staring into the abyss. We also know that today's & yesterday's volume was a fraction of the usual on debt as well as currency markets. They didn't sell any shorts. This makes them much less sure about an upside and looks like they see more downside. Also open interest was reduced by 73k. That means the euro market got much smaller, about -12% in a week. That is significant. Everyone was reducing positions. There's a lot of uncertainty here, a lot of blood...
I dont know about a bounce to 1490. Europe will be buying more oil ng from North America As well as more farm products. Germany will be buying defense weapons (2%GDP). Hell all Europe will be. At the same moment with a larger interest. The U.S, consumer will buy less BMW etc (less discretionary products). The entire world will be spending more for food. That's not demand for the Euro. I cant see 1490. but if it comes, I will be prepared.

A lot of that 2% will be spent in the U.S. Most of NATO will beef up spending. all that spending places demand on the usd
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,483
  • Mar 18, 2022 5:16pm Mar 18, 2022 5:16pm
IMM: Dollar Long Grows Amid Large EUR, GBP Sales; AUD Spec Short Unwinding
By Paul Spirgel — Mar 18 - 04:27 PM
Share:

  1. IMM net spec USD long increased in Mar 19-16 period; $IDX -0.17%
  2. EUR +0.5% in period, specs -40,050 contracts now long 18,794
  3. JPY specs -6,484 contracts into USD strength, now -62,340
  4. GBP$ -0.44% in period; specs sell 16,535 contracts now -29,061
  5. AUD specs +33,339 contracts. AUD$ -0.96% in period; short reduced to 44,856
  6. CAD long grows by 10,094 to +17,740, specs buy into CAD strength $CAD -0.97%
  7. MXN specs flip to short sell 63,593 contracts now short 10,576
  8. Dollar buoyed by rising rates and Ukraine-related haven flows
  9. In USD terms - EUR specs +$5.44bn; AUD specs -$2.454bn; GBP specs +$1.342bn

  • #97,484
  • Edited 5:39pm Mar 18, 2022 5:22pm | Edited 5:39pm
COT report on 3/15. hedge funds cut massive Eur longs, net longs were reduced by 41,236 contracts
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  • #97,485
  • Edited 5:40pm Mar 18, 2022 5:26pm | Edited 5:40pm
Quoting Boulder
COT report on 3/15. hedge funds cut massive Eur longs, net long reduced 41,236 contracts {image}
COT report on 3/15. hedge funds cut massive Pound longs as well, net longs were reduced by 16,535 contracts
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  • #97,486
  • Edited 6:38pm Mar 18, 2022 6:26pm | Edited 6:38pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I dont know about a bounce to 1490. Europe will be buying more oil ng from North America As well as more farm products. Germany will be buying defense weapons (2%GDP). Hell all Europe will be. At the same moment with a larger interest. The U.S, consumer will buy less BMW etc (less discretionary products). The entire world will be spending more for food. That's not demand for the Euro. I cant see 1490. but if it comes, I will be prepared. A lot of that 2% will be spent in the U.S. Most of NATO will beef up spending. all that spending places...
Many Billions to be spent. Germany's spending will double Russia's. Putin already broke the bank. He is asking China for food for his soldier's. The most tanks lost since WW2. More dead (in less than 1 month) than the 10 years spent in Afghanistan. Putin better pray Mosco dont get annexed.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...efense-climate

https://www.euractiv.com/section/def...ve-on-defence/

https://theprint.in/world/now-europe...taries/856613/

https://www.defensenews.com/global/e...tors-are-wary/
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,487
  • Mar 18, 2022 6:57pm Mar 18, 2022 6:57pm
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  • #97,488
  • Mar 18, 2022 8:02pm Mar 18, 2022 8:02pm
Quoting Boulder
COT report on 3/15. hedge funds cut massive Eur longs, net longs were reduced by 41,236 contracts {image}
So they finally accepted the loss. Numbers are big. I'm thinking a free fall of eu sooner or later.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #97,489
  • Mar 19, 2022 4:59am Mar 19, 2022 4:59am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I dont know about a bounce to 1490. Europe will be buying more oil ng from North America As well as more farm products. Germany will be buying defense weapons (2%GDP). Hell all Europe will be. At the same moment with a larger interest. The U.S, consumer will buy less BMW etc (less discretionary products). The entire world will be spending more for food. That's not demand for the Euro. I cant see 1490. but if it comes, I will be prepared. A lot of that 2% will be spent in the U.S. Most of NATO will beef up spending. all that spending places...
A cliff diver doesn't jump down, he jumps up to take a dive. I am trying to find the most logical place for the aerial dive. I don't think it's straight down.
  • #97,490
  • Mar 19, 2022 6:43am Mar 19, 2022 6:43am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I closed for 3 pips. I think I should wait for 3219 or 3229
I'm with you at 3223
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #97,491
  • Mar 19, 2022 7:08am Mar 19, 2022 7:08am
Quoting xav
{quote} A cliff diver doesn't jump down, he jumps up to take a dive. I am trying to find the most logical place for the aerial dive. I don't think it's straight down.
Yeah, look at the rise. It's almost straight up till 2008. Most falls are faster. This one is slow and steady, a trend. That climb actually started around 1970. Some blame it on the gold standard removal. Sure that is part of it. Something else happened back then also. The U.S. became a net importer of oil. That put the U.S. at the forefront of protecting the oil supply line. In 2009 that balance started to change. The U.S. started to produce more than it was using. The U.S. has to pay less of those trillions spent on M.E. oil (War). That burden financial will fall more to those without oil. Anyway the U.S. has pulled out the M.E. now. Year to year the financial deficit has dropped (January 1221/22). The EZ is now going to spend more on its own defense. Germany has raised its defense spending from 1% to 2%. Germany will borrow this money. So will most of the rest of the EZ. The chart already has the cliff climb. The fall began in 2008. Its just so slow. You dont see it.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,492
  • Mar 19, 2022 7:09am Mar 19, 2022 7:09am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} In that area now. The sun is still shinning. My lights did not dim. Dow -34, oil 101.42 {image}
bid to the boots it is, I have 8842 as a spot, maybe to try...8689 the other way
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #97,493
  • Mar 19, 2022 7:26am Mar 19, 2022 7:26am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah, look at the rise. It's almost straight up till 2008. Most falls are faster. This one is slow and steady, a trend. That climb actually started around 1970. Some blame it on the gold standard removal. Sure that is part of it. Something else happened back then also. The U.S. became a net importer of oil. That put the U.S. at the forefront of protecting the oil supply line. In 2009 that balance started to change. The U.S. started to produce more than it was using. The U.S. has to pay less of those trillions spent on M.E. oil (War). That...
You can see the tl before the war. LT hit.. pa back above the upper, now retesting the low tl again. What's not shown is 1970s levels. Back then the basket would be .5xx eu. A lot has changed. The wall and reunification. So 0.5xx is probably not in the cards. But its a unknown. Because now the EZ has a greater burden to pay for defense. Lets not forget the large unknown of war. That 2% could easily grow. But lets say it dont. The war stops today. Germany/EZ will still pay 2% for defense out of its GDP. That's less money for bridges roads etc. They borrow it (print) or tax. Or always the other option, let everything break. Let the bridges fall and roads crumble. I will show the chart with the 1970s levels in a sec. Before the U.S. was not putting a lot of GDP toward oil protection.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,494
  • Mar 19, 2022 7:28am Mar 19, 2022 7:28am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} bid to the boots it is, I have 8842 as a spot, maybe to try...8689 the other way
The bull left the corral with a stretched rope.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,495
  • Mar 19, 2022 7:44am Mar 19, 2022 7:44am
Here we are 1985. The U.S. was ramping up the spending deficit. Out spending the Russians on defense. The basket is about 0.5633. Notice 1.0861 is the 50% mark.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,496
  • Mar 19, 2022 7:49am Mar 19, 2022 7:49am
Kakaya Russia...Once again the Ukrainian Stugna-P ATGM destroyed an armoured vehicle, possibly a BMP...
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I am who I am
  • #97,497
  • Mar 19, 2022 7:52am Mar 19, 2022 7:52am
Quoting gatorinla
Here we are 1985. The U.S. was ramping up the spending deficit. Out spending the Russians on defense. The basket is about 0.5633. Notice 1.0861 is the 50% mark. {image}
January 1971..50% at 1.0727. That's why 1.0 is/was so hard. Close a Q below .0727. Then 1.0 very close. So is 0.8xx
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,498
  • Mar 19, 2022 7:57am Mar 19, 2022 7:57am
Quoting imwim
Kakaya Russia...Once again the Ukrainian Stugna-P ATGM destroyed an armoured vehicle, possibly a BMP... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ynqd...SNAKE%E2%80%A6
who wants to sit in that tank
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,499
  • Mar 19, 2022 8:15am Mar 19, 2022 8:15am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} who wants to sit in that tank
This one for sure don't wants...
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I am who I am
  • #97,500
  • Mar 19, 2022 8:42am Mar 19, 2022 8:42am
Moldova next?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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