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Have I found something useful, or is this time wasting?

  • #61
  • Mar 16, 2022 6:26pm Mar 16, 2022 6:26pm
Quoting gazgaz2000
Hi there, I’ve been analysing the Forex markets for years and finally worked hard to put together a strategy, so far in the last 6 weeks, I’ve identified 28 trades that meet my entry criteria and had 27 wins and 1 loss, all trades with a 2:1 RR. My main problem is that the entry is on a 5 minute chart but I want to make it easier to trade without sitting in front of my screen all day. Does anybody know of anybody who can analyse my trades and look at ways to improve the strategy, TIA Gaz
Is there a subjective element or is it completely rule based?
  • #62
  • Mar 16, 2022 6:59pm Mar 16, 2022 6:59pm
Read up on elliott wave theory and "reversion to mean". These two concepts will guide you down that path. But I warn you, do no try to pick tops and bottoms.
  • #63
  • Mar 17, 2022 8:55am Mar 17, 2022 8:55am
[quote=yoriz;13934986]{quote} With that winrate at that RR you don't need to improve anything and only need to worry about what island you are going to buy ;-)

I think his comment was a sarcastic response to my idea. Don't you think?
  • #64
  • Mar 17, 2022 9:05am Mar 17, 2022 9:05am
I have giving up in this market. My original idea failed miserably because of MR. Puting and Mr. NATO and MR. Biden.
Lol, honestly is it because the system is not a real trading system and just random ding-dong with the market.
And then I tried to make the trend my friend, but it was also angry and sad about the situations in the world, so it refused to become my friend as well. And also failed with me, and any trade I place have to be a losing one.

So now I gave up. I have many ideas in mind, but I do not have the time or patient to test them out one after one. This need of me 100 years to do so. And maybe in that time the Forex has become "Rorex" and no longer "FOREX".
The problem is all the ideas need EAS, and I am not serious about them to higher coders and pay for them.

Anyways, if anyone have a profitable idea that only need messing around with numbers and not need reading charts or using indicators, please send me a private message.
Thanks because you came across this topic and used your valuable time to read through these post.
  • #65
  • Mar 17, 2022 9:30am Mar 17, 2022 9:30am
[quote=davelansing;13935890][

I know. I was just asking Yoriz if he don't think that "gazgaz2000" was joking since he was saying that he have made a system that will win 27 times and loos one. So I was asking if he was just making fun out of the idea that I have posted. Since I want to build a profitable system without technical analysis or fundamental or all these advanced tools that is needed in trading.

And in the end all these ideas did not hold on with me. Now I am back to the old days for good hedging games.
  • #66
  • Mar 17, 2022 4:24pm Mar 17, 2022 4:24pm
Quoting aalaarajy
I know. I was just asking Yoriz if he don't think that "gazgaz2000" was joking
I don't know if @gazgaz2000 was joking, but I am certainly assuming he is exaggerating because like @dave illustrated, with these statistics you can retire in a year. I really wish @gazgaz2000 all the best and hope for him this is true. In that case I am just very envious and hope he asks me as the coder for his EA :-)
  • #67
  • Mar 18, 2022 5:03am Mar 18, 2022 5:03am
Hey @aalaarajy I have been reading your post. I do not have fx experience but as a hobbyist programmer I can tell you that everything can be coded as long as it has logical explanation.

If you haven't dropped this strategy, may be you can add RSI or Volume Information to judge the momentum of trend.

Like I said I don't have experience to judge your strategy but I get the feeling that your strategy is more like a core outline of a program, to work it you would be needed to refine it. You just know what you want, but you also need to know factors affecting your strategy.

Your idea of adding more bar like after 1 to 36 where bar no 1 is latest or just formed bar and 36th bar will be bar in way back, well we can just add new one bar and drop last bar means bar no 36 making sure we have total 36 bars.

If you have dropped Fx then good luck.
  • #68
  • Mar 18, 2022 9:02am Mar 18, 2022 9:02am
Quoting theyogender
Hey @aalaarajy I have been reading your post. I do not have fx experience but as a hobbyist programmer I can tell you that everything can be coded as long as it has logical explanation. If you haven't dropped this strategy, may be you can add RSI or Volume Information to judge the momentum of trend. Like I said I don't have experience to judge your strategy but I get the feeling that your strategy is more like a core outline of a program, to work it you would be needed to refine it. You just know what you want, but you also need to know factors...

Thanks for the info. Well, I have not dropped the whole idea. I am just, you know, tired of the market. It have punched me so many times that I am down right now.

Well, my idea have many condition in order for me to consider it as I want it to be. I am going to outline the conditions very detailed, and see if you think this still can be coded or not. But before you read further, you have to know all the calculations have to be user defined. I mean that the EA have to be coded in a manner where the user can put the different parameters, and the EA then have to calculate from what is inputted.

1- Look after the user defined bar numbers.
2- Now look after the high and low for every of these bars, and find out what is the highest and what is the lowest, and then find the overall range this pair have ranged in in these bars.
3- Now since you have the overall range, find out what is the price right now. And What it's position compared to this range. Is it n the bottom, or top or in a specific percentage near the top or bottom.
4- Now find out what is the minimum range that the user have put in for you to trade. If the overall range is lower than this minimum range, relax and don't trade.
5- If it is equal or higher then trade according to the rules you have got from the coder (these are rules the coder put in without the users intervention). And the rules is if the actual price right now is lower than 45% of the over all range then this is a buy trade wit an SL and TP that is percentage of what is left of the range. And if it is higher than 60% then this is a sell. And if it is between 46-59% then this is a "no trade zone".
6- If you hit an SL or TP wait without trading as follows: if you are on the daily chart wait three bars. If you are on the weekly chart then wait one bar. If you are on the 1h chart then wait 24 bars. For lower time frames wait what is equal to 24 hours.


Give the EA also an ability to find these calculation by itself. This can be done by letting the EA looking for many bars to find out what is most repeted of calculations, so it self can calculate the minimum range and the SL and TP.

So, what do you think? Can this be coded? And how complicated this is? What is it worth coding this?
The problem is I am no longer so serious about this idea, that I could hope that someone is interested to code this free just out of curiousity.

And no. No indicators or technical analysis. I will make a strategy out of numbers alone. So only price movements.
  • #69
  • Mar 18, 2022 9:16am Mar 18, 2022 9:16am
I have another idea that might be very easier to code than all these complicated numbers

Look after the previous bar and look after it's high and low, and find the range. Now look after the opening and closing price. If the closing price is lower than 45% then this is a sell trend, so open a sell trade. If it is higher then 60% then this is a buy trade. If it is between 46-59% then this is a buy and sell together, so a hedge. The TP have to be 20% of the overall range of it. No SL have to be put. Wait for the bar we are in right now. When it reach 95% and is about to close, close the trade even if it is 1000 pips loss.

Keep doing this until death.
So with this I will try to make the trend my friend but without any technical analysis.


Is this easier to code?
  • #70
  • Mar 18, 2022 9:39am Mar 18, 2022 9:39am
Yes both can be coded and I hope someone from community code them but if not I will be coding them and post results, but It will require time as I am currently searching for stable job, hopefully sooner.

Regards
theyogender
  • #71
  • Mar 18, 2022 9:44am Mar 18, 2022 9:44am
Quoting beastwork
Read up on elliott wave theory and "reversion to mean". These two concepts will guide you down that path. But I warn you, do no try to pick tops and bottoms.
By the way, have you tried @beastwork idea
I think Fibonacci Retracement also work quite similar to your idea
  • #72
  • Edited 1:11pm Mar 20, 2022 12:58pm | Edited 1:11pm
Quoting theyogender
{quote} By the way, have you tried @beastwork idea I think Fibonacci Retracement also work quite similar to your idea
Sorry, is your question to me? I thought it was to the post owner that you quoted.

Well, I do not understand about his idea since I can only work with numbers. What is fibonacci retracements? Does it depend on specific indicator that I have to drag into my chart and then read it's info? Then this is impossible for me due to the reasons I have described in my first post.
Or is it a number calculation method/trick I have not discovered? If it is, so please tell me about it?
I love numbers and hope to find a way to beat the market with severely, since it have punched me so many times.
  • #73
  • Mar 21, 2022 8:25am Mar 21, 2022 8:25am
@aalaarajy
I think it work both side as a drag and drop into chart and numbers.
What I was saying that you might be interested in Fibonacci Retracement theory not any indicators.
I have not understood Fibonacci Retracement completely but it is something like after a big move by price in a direction. Retracement happen to about 50-61% level of Fibonacci.

Elliot wave theory is also not just an indicator, it should have numerical argument to support it. You can check that out.

PS: I have not studied Fibonacci or any other as I am just starting my FX. So make sure to research yourself.
  • #74
  • Mar 26, 2022 6:35am Mar 26, 2022 6:35am
Quoting theyogender
@aalaarajy I think it work both side as a drag and drop into chart and numbers. What I was saying that you might be interested in Fibonacci Retracement theory not any indicators. I have not understood Fibonacci Retracement completely but it is something like after a big move by price in a direction. Retracement happen to about 50-61% level of Fibonacci. Elliot wave theory is also not just an indicator, it should have numerical argument to support it. You can check that out. PS: I have not studied Fibonacci or any other as I am just starting my FX....

Well, I have researched this before, and again today, and reached same conclusion and that is the fibinacci also need too much visual interactions by drawing lines and playing with different tools to deal with it.

In any case, in my search for a trading method that will allow me to just use numbers and what I can find in historical data, I have tried many different trading approaches, but so far with very limited success. What seems to work this week, will fail in the next week. But that is how this market is as the wise traders tells us over and over. So we have to just bow for their wisdom and let them trade in peace since we cannot acheeve their success.
.
  • #75
  • Mar 26, 2022 3:24pm Mar 26, 2022 3:24pm
I have wrote about a new and very safe trading hedge approach. But is it profitable in the long run? I hope you will check it out and tell me your thoughts.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post13946995
  • #76
  • Mar 26, 2022 4:09pm Mar 26, 2022 4:09pm
Quoting wowzers
{quote} Is there a subjective element or is it completely rule based?
As my last comment, there are Black and White rules, but as there are 5 highs and 5 lows that the price could bounce off, go above/below the EMA's and then trigger. I'm mainly after some advice on whether certain trades I've seen should be avoided or not. I think there are legs in the system and happy to run it by somebody with more experience than me to see if it could be profitable.
  • #77
  • Mar 26, 2022 4:43pm Mar 26, 2022 4:43pm
I would use the ATR to track the moves up and down. You could base your stops and targets off of this for sure. I love what you are doing and the idea is great! Excited to see how it turns out
  • #78
  • Mar 26, 2022 9:34pm Mar 26, 2022 9:34pm
Somewhat related question to this: if I am trading correlated pairs such as the EURGBP and the EURUSD and I want to exploit reversion to the mean (or statistical arbitrage). What ratio should I calculate for these pairs - example:

EURGBP is at price level 0.80000

EURUSD is at price level 1.20000

And I am working with Mini lots (10,000), and I see a diversion in their price levels (one goes up [I go short], other goes down[I go long]), and I enter this trade to exploit reversion to the mean, how much should my ratio of currency be to make the unrealized PnL of the trades as equal as possible: is it as simple as 12 mini lots of EURGBP and 8 mini lots of EURUSD (an inverse of their price levels), or does it need to be a ratio of their respective volatilities (say the volatility of EURGBP is 10 and EURUSD is 15, would my ratio of lot size then be 15 mini lots for the EURGBP and 10 mini lots for the EURUSD (an inverse of the ratio again)).

I have noticed in sim that when I enter with the same lot size (say 5 mini lots of each) they begin having vastly difference PnL diversions (which I understand is normal - but looking to minimize this as much as possible).

Looking for help/discussion on this, thank you.
  • #79
  • Apr 8, 2022 7:38pm Apr 8, 2022 7:38pm
Quoting theyogender
@aalaarajy I think it work both side as a drag and drop into chart and numbers. What I was saying that you might be interested in Fibonacci Retracement theory not any indicators. I have not understood Fibonacci Retracement completely but it is something like after a big move by price in a direction. Retracement happen to about 50-61% level of Fibonacci. Elliot wave theory is also not just an indicator, it should have numerical argument to support it. You can check that out. PS: I have not studied Fibonacci or any other as I am just starting my FX....

Thanks for your info. I have tried to research further about fibinacci, but sounds for me very random. You have to rely on specific percentage taken out of a theory that can be adopted to many mathimatical usages. I don't know, but this is too random for my taste.

I have though thought about some playing around with some indicators that have values you can read and not only lines and graphical interactions.
For example the average directional index (adx). This one when you drag it to any chart you will be able to read three numbers put between parentheses. Maybe this one can be useful for me if I could understand what these three values supposed to tell. Out of what I could read about it in the internet one of these numbers refer to the strength of the direction. And the other two is to tell if it is a down or up trend.
So can any one tell me more about this indicator without any explanation about the visual interaction with it?
  • #80
  • Apr 8, 2022 7:45pm Apr 8, 2022 7:45pm
Another thought I have made is about the support and resistance.
Can I consider any up trend price level that the trading instrument have pulled back from as a resistance and any down price level is a support and made my trades accordingly?

So for example when I look at the GBPUSD and find out that it have reached 1.3167 and could not continue further and began to fallen down as a resistance, and today's lowest price 1.2981 as a support? You know that today for example the GBPUSD reached the 1.2981 I thinkg, then it began to go up. So Can I consider this as a support, so after 30 pips I can enter a buy trade? But if it go back to the 1.2981 on monday and then continue to the 1.2956 so I can go short? Will this be a useful approach in your opinion, or just another too random idea ?
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