The Swamp | Page 4868 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: The Swamp
Exit Attachments

The Swamp

  • #97,341
  • Mar 16, 2022 7:11pm Mar 16, 2022 7:11pm
Talking about the jpy a few days ago.. There's some decent R 119.88/.90-120.xx area. This may be the place to get some retrace. Possibly one of the larger ones in recent weeks/months. UJ and equities often move together. When the UJ is near 119.88. It may be a bad week or more for equities. Bookmark this one.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,342
  • Mar 16, 2022 7:24pm Mar 16, 2022 7:24pm
Quoting gatorinla
Talking about the jpy a few days ago.. There's some decent R 119.88/.90-120.xx area. This may be the place to get some retrace. Possibly one of the larger ones in recent weeks/months. UJ and equities often move together. When the UJ is near 119.88. It may be a bad week or more for equities. Bookmark this one.
87.45 AJ is another spot that may cause some pain on equities. Aj is unique, its the pulse of earth commodities and equities. When it drops, its the economy pulse. Its do for some retrace. Not so bad. Maybe back to mid February levels. Its on a terror cycle up. So it may not stop its climb. But if it does here. It will scare the shit out of a lot of people. Oil will probably dump at this time. Maybe hit 65$ again.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,343
  • Mar 16, 2022 7:30pm Mar 16, 2022 7:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 87.45 AJ is another spot that may cause some pain on equities. Aj is unique, its the pulse of earth commodities and equities. When it drops, its the economy pulse. Its do for some retrace. Not so bad. Maybe back to mid February levels. Its on a terror cycle up. So it may not stop its climb. But if it does here. It will scare the shit out of a lot of people. Oil will probably dump at this time. Maybe hit 65$ again.
There is a good chance AJ will reach 87.45 this week. I haven't done oil yet.. So 65$ is just a shot from the hip. You can have a front row seat.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 15 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,344
  • Mar 16, 2022 7:40pm Mar 16, 2022 7:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} There is a good chance AJ will reach 87.45 this week. I haven't done oil yet.. So 65$ is just a shot from the hip. You can have a front row seat. {image}
Oil 78/79.. 78.6x Week.. Its resting on day support now 94.46.. Anyway AJ is close to R. If it cant pass expect oil to dump. 65 is normal.. But oil went negative a few years back.. over 30 bucks negative. split the difference and 50$ oil may come.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,345
  • Mar 16, 2022 7:46pm Mar 16, 2022 7:46pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Oil 78/79.. 78.6x Week.. Its resting on day support now 94.46.. Anyway AJ is close to R. If it cant pass expect oil to dump. 65 is normal.. But oil went negative a few years back.. over 30 bucks negative. split the difference and 50$ oil may come.
44.36 oil, For this to happen. Something is gone on in the world. What is it? Its not just the war. War should raise the price. Something is brewing

Inserted Video
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 11 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,346
  • Mar 16, 2022 8:19pm Mar 16, 2022 8:19pm
seems hard to take 1.105 for now. so many attempts.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #97,347
  • Mar 16, 2022 10:50pm Mar 16, 2022 10:50pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 44.36 oil, For this to happen. Something is gone on in the world. What is it? Its not just the war. War should raise the price. Something is brewing https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjSpO2B6G4s {image}
China Lockdowns
New covid variant BA2 -
Economic slowdown.

also probably the idea that Russia is loosing the war so a big part of the big spike was related to Russia winning and not delivering Gas/Oil to West
maybe more.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #97,348
  • Mar 16, 2022 11:41pm Mar 16, 2022 11:41pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} China Lockdowns New covid variant BA2 - Economic slowdown. also probably the idea that Russia is loosing the war so a big part of the big spike was related to Russia winning and not delivering Gas/Oil to West maybe more.
They should stick their covid where the sun don't shine. These are blatant lies being told. What nonsense variant again, so they can do another booster jab, right? They must be out of their mind. They should just make sure they keep it within their country and handle it however they feel. After all China is a pseudo dictatorship and they are used to it. We are tired of those lockdowns.
  • #97,349
  • Mar 17, 2022 12:36am Mar 17, 2022 12:36am
BOE today
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: boe 17.png Size: 28 KB
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #97,350
  • Mar 17, 2022 12:46am Mar 17, 2022 12:46am
FT saying Russia about to default
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ft russia default.png Size: 99 KB
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #97,351
  • Mar 17, 2022 3:40am Mar 17, 2022 3:40am
FX option expiries for March 17 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.
- EUR/USD: EUR amounts

  1. 1.0885 261m
  2. 1.0910-15 325m
  3. 1.0970-80 603m
  4. 1.1000 1b
  5. 1.1075-85 690m
  6. 1.1100 398m

- GBP/USD: GBP amounts

  1. 1.3200 236m

- USD/JPY: USD amounts

  1. 117.00 471m
  2. 117.50 200m
  3. 117.75 230m
  4. 118.00 205m
  5. 118.50 229m

- AUD/USD: AUD amounts

  1. 0.7150-55 2.2b

- USD/CAD: USD amounts

  1. 1.2530 330m
  2. 1.2560 745m
  3. 1.2625-35 426m
  4. 1.2680-90 496m

- EUR/GBP: EUR amounts

  1. 0.8375 558m
  2. 0.8490 300m

  • #97,352
  • Mar 17, 2022 3:40am Mar 17, 2022 3:40am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} China Lockdowns New covid variant BA2 - Economic slowdown. also probably the idea that Russia is loosing the war so a big part of the big spike was related to Russia winning and not delivering Gas/Oil to West maybe more.
Its not so bad its in a uptrend. But its in the spot that could produce a decent drop . A drop when oil has already had a large drop. So as speculators see these 2 circumstances hitting oil at the same moment. It should amplify it organically. Now if China slows down, that could explain it some. It not a guaranteed drop. Its the AJ about to hit a tough dynamic R. At the same time other events may push a oil drop quicker/stronger. Plus the AJ could also show a speed bump in equities. Added together at the same time, can cause a panic. That's when the headlines will try to fit the fundies, with the techs after the fact.

Sometimes that balance shows oil drop, when the usd drops. That's the time something is messed up.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,353
  • Mar 17, 2022 3:53am Mar 17, 2022 3:53am
Quoting Boulder
FX option expiries for March 17 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0885 261m 1.0910-15 325m 1.0970-80 603m 1.1000 1b 1.1075-85 690m 1.1100 398m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.3200 236m - USD/JPY: USD amounts 117.00 471m 117.50 200m 117.75 230m 118.00 205m 118.50 229m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.7150-55 2.2b - USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.2530 330m 1.2560 745m 1.2625-35 426m 1.2680-90 496m - EUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8375 558m 0.8490 300m
I got a norm just under 1.1 at 1.0996. But if it hits the week range at 1073 first. maybe 1073+1. it could make 1.1 a decent long. Maybe a decent short tp from 1073+, to 1.1. (Current level/1073 to 1.1)
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,354
  • Mar 17, 2022 4:01am Mar 17, 2022 4:01am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Its not so bad its in a uptrend. But its in the spot that could produce a decent drop . A drop when oil has already had a large drop. So as speculators see these 2 circumstances hitting oil at the same moment. It should amplify it organically. Now if China slows down, that could explain it some. It not a guaranteed drop. Its the AJ about to hit a tough dynamic R. At the same time other events may push a oil drop quicker/stronger. Plus the AJ could also show a speed bump in equities. Added together at the same time, can cause a panic. That's...
All bullish, all is a beautiful uptrend. Your sailing along. On a beautiful sun shinning day, in calm water. Over the horizon is 87.45 area. Nothing special looking here. It may be nothing. Added with the oil drop before hitting this. It may cause a mini oil panic, (earth commodity/equity) mini panic.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 15 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,355
  • Mar 17, 2022 4:26am Mar 17, 2022 4:26am
Dropping to 85.50 wouldn't be so bad (if it held). dropping 83.50 at the same moment oil and equities are dropping. If the R at 87.45 causes this normal retrace. The market will be looking at oil and equities. They wont know its just normal here on the AJ. The majority of the market will just see oil dropping, with stocks. Then all the media/experts will invent reasons to try to make them fit. Retailers will read those reasons on twitter/facebook and spread it. Then it becomes reality. A mini panic is born
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 27 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,356
  • Mar 17, 2022 4:41am Mar 17, 2022 4:41am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} All bullish, all is a beautiful uptrend. Your sailing along. On a beautiful sun shinning day, in calm water. Over the horizon is 87.45 area. Nothing special looking here. It may be nothing. Added with the oil drop before hitting this. It may cause a mini oil panic, (earth commodity/equity) mini panic. {image}
a few hours ago they they said more stimulus because they still can't get inflation
probably in the price already on JPY crosses
i see more or less the same thing back to sleep
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #97,357
  • Mar 17, 2022 4:42am Mar 17, 2022 4:42am
Quoting Boulder
FX option expiries for March 17 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0885 261m 1.0910-15 325m 1.0970-80 603m 1.1000 1b 1.1075-85 690m 1.1100 398m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.3200 236m - USD/JPY: USD amounts 117.00 471m 117.50 200m 117.75 230m 118.00 205m 118.50 229m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.7150-55 2.2b - USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.2530 330m 1.2560 745m 1.2625-35 426m 1.2680-90 496m - EUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8375 558m 0.8490 300m
I closed.. I will try another if it bounces to 1073.. I left a pending there.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,358
  • Mar 17, 2022 4:45am Mar 17, 2022 4:45am
Waiting to short the spike on BoE if the stars align.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU chart.png Size: 60 KB
  • #97,359
  • Mar 17, 2022 5:11am Mar 17, 2022 5:11am
3 dead confirmed Russian Generals. A forth died yesterday. A 10% casualty rate. Takes away most morale. Asking China for MRE. Its not going good for Putin.

The purge begins. 2 of Putin's spy chiefs arrested.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,360
  • Mar 17, 2022 5:21am Mar 17, 2022 5:21am
Quoting gatorinla
3 dead confirmed Russian Generals. A forth died yesterday. A 10% casualty rate. Takes away most morale. Asking China for MRE. Its not going good for Putin. The purge begins. 2 of Putin's spy chiefs arrested.
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
66 traders viewing now