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  • #10,141
  • Mar 10, 2022 7:57am Mar 10, 2022 7:57am
looks like yesterdays bearishness is over, that crash was extremely volatile. wonder what the next target is?
  • #10,142
  • Mar 10, 2022 8:50am Mar 10, 2022 8:50am
Quoting Kwame Freder
looks like yesterdays bearishness is over, that crash was extremely volatile. wonder what the next target is?
I am bearish this week, eying 92 (previous resistance, now support, unfilled gap), but also watching the upper zones.

Agree with this analysis
https://www.energyexch.com/news/1143...ntraday-low-as


Weekly
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  • #10,143
  • Mar 10, 2022 10:44am Mar 10, 2022 10:44am
I am bullish this week, 100 in WTI is a significant level which failed to hit on yesterday's (03/09/22) flash crash. Any long positions were flattened, and are now waiting for re-entry. Significant geo-political risk to this, however as the Eastern Europe conflict is winding down. Any signs of flareup will serve as a confirmation that we are oversold, stop loss on 99.8, first TP at 128
  • #10,144
  • Mar 11, 2022 4:35am Mar 11, 2022 4:35am
Quoting Kwame Freder
looks like yesterdays bearishness is over, that crash was extremely volatile. wonder what the next target is?
Agree, tho facing some pretty heavy resis on the topside meantime, in the midst of a welcome correction.

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"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
  • #10,145
  • Mar 11, 2022 6:09am Mar 11, 2022 6:09am
ok so bears aren't quite done, but are having a difficult time passing ~ $103 area. the swings are so wild especially with any news on the war, hard to read/analyze
  • #10,146
  • Mar 11, 2022 8:39am Mar 11, 2022 8:39am
Quoting Kwame Freder
ok so bears aren't quite done, but are having a difficult time passing ~ $103 area. the swings are so wild especially with any news on the war, hard to read/analyze
$103 held for now, interesting to see 4h candle close.

Versailles conference final day near the end, EU commissions plan is to completely cut oil and gas dependancy from Russia by 2027.
  • #10,147
  • Mar 11, 2022 9:07am Mar 11, 2022 9:07am
1 hr chart indicating a possible turn to the north. it being friday i will probably sit this one out and pass on it
  • #10,148
  • Edited 1:13pm Mar 14, 2022 11:24am | Edited 1:13pm
Nice bearish pennant patern was built on 1h.
Holding a few shorts from 106 and 108.
Price bounced off 9833, previous resistance level, now support.
Will we have another dip lower?
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  • #10,149
  • Edited 9:26pm Mar 14, 2022 9:08pm | Edited 9:26pm
Quoting Jolita
Nice bearish pennant patern was built on 1h. Holding a few shorts from 106 and 108. Price bounced off 9833, previous resistance level, now support. Will we have another dip lower? {image}
Question answered, nice work Jolita.


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  • #10,150
  • Mar 15, 2022 9:11am Mar 15, 2022 9:11am
Quoting Jolita
{quote} I am bearish this week, eying 92 (previous resistance, now support, unfilled gap), but also watching the upper zones. Agree with this analysis https://www.energyexch.com/news/1143...ntraday-low-as Weekly {image}
great call! wondering how low this can go
  • #10,151
  • Mar 16, 2022 3:22am Mar 16, 2022 3:22am
Quoting Kwame Freder
{quote} great call! wondering how low this can go
Often a good time to throw something at it when you think like that. Close to back to $100 again, markets (at least re AUD/USD, A200 (and US30 almost back to 34,000), and others on upward spiral, dangerous time to trade right now, always is I guess, but sentiment certainly has swung to the upside, apart from Precious, languishing around $1900, give or take).

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  • #10,152
  • Mar 16, 2022 9:56am Mar 16, 2022 9:56am
Quoting Kwame Freder
{quote} great call! wondering how low this can go

Thanks. I think we are done with the highs. Demand is lower due to Covid cases also temperatures getting mild.
We will soon replenish oil from other countries, new deals in progress.
I would like WTI price to reach $85-$90 by the end of this week.
  • #10,153
  • Mar 16, 2022 12:30pm Mar 16, 2022 12:30pm
Quoting Jolita
{quote} Thanks. I think we are done with the highs. Demand is lower due to Covid cases also temperatures getting mild. We will soon replenish oil from other countries, new deals in progress. I would like WTI price to reach $85-$90 by the end of this week.
currently in a sideways range that could last the rest of the week. I do get the feel that when it breaks out it will be further south. The impact of war on oil has worn off not sure what else could happen to move it back up
  • #10,154
  • Mar 16, 2022 12:56pm Mar 16, 2022 12:56pm
Quoting Kwame Freder
{quote} currently in a sideways range that could last the rest of the week. I do get the feel that when it breaks out it will be further south. The impact of war on oil has worn off not sure what else could happen to move it back up
Last week big money were increasing shorts.

This can move back up -
Putin holds all of the cards atm and any time can turn of the taps. WHY? To harm the economy, inflation. He would not care of Russia's consequences. Hopefully not going to happen but if does happen, WTI could reach 150 or 200.
I am keeping this in my mind.

One other thing we all moving from Russia dependency in the future years, so why we can't control the price which suits us?

I remember OPEC said they are confident with $70-80 price per barrel.

Lets monitor and trade accordingly.
Thanks Kwame!
  • #10,155
  • Mar 16, 2022 1:16pm Mar 16, 2022 1:16pm
Quoting Jolita
{quote} Last week big money were increasing shorts. This can move back up - Putin holds all of the cards atm and any time can turn of the taps. WHY? To harm the economy, inflation. He would not care of Russia's consequences. Hopefully not going to happen but if does happen, WTI could reach 150 or 200. I am keeping this in my mind. One other thing we all moving from Russia dependency in the future years, so why we can't control the price which suits us? I remember OPEC said they are confident with $70-80 price per barrel. Lets monitor and trade accordingly....
disagree with you there. who's economy would he hurt? Europe mostly and his own at a time when he needs to finance the war. That would also probably kick off a war with NATO so thats highly unlikely. The current covid outbreak in china is causing more lockdowns which i see as the greater short term threat to oil
  • #10,156
  • Mar 16, 2022 1:23pm Mar 16, 2022 1:23pm
Quoting Kwame Freder
{quote} disagree with you there. who's economy would he hurt? Europe mostly and his own at a time when he needs to finance the war. That would also probably kick off a war with NATO so thats highly unlikely. The current covid outbreak in china is causing more lockdowns which i see as the greater short term threat to oil
Yes, Germany's economy relies over 40%. He will not care of Russians economy or people, already in default.
  • #10,157
  • Mar 16, 2022 11:35pm Mar 16, 2022 11:35pm
AUD/USD loves crude going up (inflation and interest rate ramification thing), A200 was down to paper trades this morning, about 4.5 hrs ago, a tech glitch thing, pandemonium), charts a comparison as at now, 2.25PM AEST.

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  • #10,158
  • Mar 17, 2022 4:42am Mar 17, 2022 4:42am
Double bottom, tripple top on 1h and 4h.
If 98 holds, back to ranging mode.
If crossed might seak 100-105.
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  • #10,159
  • Edited 5:37am Mar 17, 2022 5:25am | Edited 5:37am
Yes WTI Cash certainly broke resis @ 97.61 about 3 hours ago, over $100 again re that one - never say die re Crude it seems. Even Spot taking a leap. Elsewhere US30 futs marking time, best to wait an hour or two for any real direction there, did look a bit dangerous buying @ around that 34,095 level. We wait. No news of any relevant significance on the wire.

EDIT: Spot = The Precious one, XAU. : )

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  • #10,160
  • Mar 17, 2022 12:20pm Mar 17, 2022 12:20pm
Quoting Jolita
Double bottom, tripple top on 1h and 4h. If 98 holds, back to ranging mode. If crossed might seak 100-105. {image}{image}

Not bad trade if you followed.
Shorting to 98.

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