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The Swamp

  • #97,001
  • Mar 11, 2022 11:13am Mar 11, 2022 11:13am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} 0925 is week open...we will see... I wonder this week COT report later.. I will be shocked if hedge funds added more longs this week
More important its year s 1. This is all big number territory
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,002
  • Mar 11, 2022 11:14am Mar 11, 2022 11:14am
Quoting xav
{quote} I guess a Fed disappointment might do it. My sense is that the market has been pricing in a biggish raise since before the war. But I can't make a prediction whether the Fed is still going to raise (as much as is expected) in this environment. Also, 300 up, 200 down, then 300 up would fit this scenario to the T.
I guess all will be shocked with a 0.5 raise
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,003
  • Mar 11, 2022 11:22am Mar 11, 2022 11:22am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} 0925 is week open...we will see... I wonder this week COT report later.. I will be shocked if hedge funds added more longs this week
Tuesday, they closed shorts and added longs. Yesterday, they may have closed longs (add shorts) 1088 I hope.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,004
  • Mar 11, 2022 11:25am Mar 11, 2022 11:25am
A little over sold today.. I gave longs a try 0923 to 0926..
may not work..since they are against all trends
  • #97,005
  • Mar 11, 2022 11:29am Mar 11, 2022 11:29am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Tuesday, they closed shorts and added longs. Yesterday, they may have closed longs (add shorts) 1088 I hope. {image}
still 5 hours left to close the day... currently doji for the week...
  • #97,006
  • Mar 11, 2022 11:32am Mar 11, 2022 11:32am
0917 is system II H4 uptrend stop... lets see bulls will defend it,,,..testing atm,,30 mins to go. for H4 close...
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  • #97,007
  • Mar 11, 2022 11:32am Mar 11, 2022 11:32am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I guess all will be shocked with a 0.5 raise
Citi, Credit Suisse, HSBC, Deutsche all predict 50. Most others also say 125-175 this year, and in 2-3 steps. It's pretty evident Fed will have to do 50 steps at one point.
On CME 95% expect 25-50 and 4% expect 0-25.
I don't think 50 will shock anyone. But I've been wrong before...
  • #97,008
  • Mar 11, 2022 11:35am Mar 11, 2022 11:35am
Quoting Boulder
0917 is system II H4 uptrend stop... lets see bulls will defend it,,,..testing atm,,30 mins to go. for H4 close... {image}
0873 is is system I H4 uptrend stop.
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  • #97,009
  • Mar 11, 2022 11:40am Mar 11, 2022 11:40am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} probably 900 today some support 920 but trend is back in full force also if there is a big range now - RSI 1H could be looking ok near 900/920 problem is now until FED i would be afraid to short "the bottom" 970 980 shortable as a trend but small
well finally - for all the range players out there
here is you buying level and of course 800

also ESF - down very close to today overnight low

oil decent stable strange

so at this point seeing ESF below 4200 would be really something after a 4337 print - super bearish for visiting 4100 lows

one of the most amazing days in a while

stay nimble stay humble the only way to survive Market.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #97,010
  • Mar 11, 2022 11:44am Mar 11, 2022 11:44am
Just talking.. 0921 needs a week and greater close below. Year S1 at. 0925. R/R wise. A long dont look bad. I took one. I dont have a large stop. I set tp for 0963. Be careful. weeks ago it gapped a shitload down. I will not leave a long open.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,011
  • Mar 11, 2022 11:45am Mar 11, 2022 11:45am
so jpy no safe heaven now ? they manage to change this even a war and UJ going up
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
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  • #97,012
  • Mar 11, 2022 11:46am Mar 11, 2022 11:46am
JP Morgan is the biggest counterparty for Nikel Tycoon's short bets
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #97,013
  • Mar 11, 2022 11:53am Mar 11, 2022 11:53am
GU new low
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #97,014
  • Mar 11, 2022 12:02pm Mar 11, 2022 12:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
Just talking.. 0921 needs a week and greater close below. Year S1 at. 0925. R/R wise. A long dont look bad. I took one. I dont have a large stop. I set tp for 0963. Be careful. weeks ago it gapped a shitload down. I will not leave a long open.
I closed my long manually. before s/l. 4h closed below 0921.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,015
  • Mar 11, 2022 12:12pm Mar 11, 2022 12:12pm
Quoting Boulder
0917 is system II H4 uptrend stop... lets see bulls will defend it,,,..testing atm,,30 mins to go. for H4 close... {image}
bulls failed to defend per sysII
  • #97,016
  • Mar 11, 2022 12:14pm Mar 11, 2022 12:14pm
Quoting DMA Trader
so jpy no safe heaven now ? they manage to change this even a war and UJ going up
WW3 probably involves China. That puts a bulls eye on Japan. That's where some Pacific subs are based. Those subs patrol the China coast.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,017
  • Mar 11, 2022 12:14pm Mar 11, 2022 12:14pm
Quoting DMA Trader
so jpy no safe heaven now ? they manage to change this even a war and UJ going up
glad I flat that UJ short this morning
  • #97,018
  • Mar 11, 2022 12:33pm Mar 11, 2022 12:33pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} WW3 probably involves China. That puts a bulls eye on Japan. That's where some Pacific subs are based. Those subs patrol the China coast.
Target the western base... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...ities_Yokosuka
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,019
  • Mar 11, 2022 12:44pm Mar 11, 2022 12:44pm
At some point the door will slam on 0921/25. Things wont pass as freely, when it does. I think that happens when pa starts closing large tf below 0721 or 0637. It may be R sooner or later. Closing a week below 0921 should make it stronger R. That chance to return to 1208 gets dimmer on the week close. A q close below should eliminate that for a long time. Probably years or decade.
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #97,020
  • Mar 11, 2022 12:46pm Mar 11, 2022 12:46pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} WW3 probably involves China. That puts a bulls eye on Japan. That's where some Pacific subs are based. Those subs patrol the China coast.
well i mean even CHF doesn't' deserve any attention or safe heaven status but maybe they will somehow manage to do the japan way

Yuan is more stable and "safe" then this but hey market knows better.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
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