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The Swamp

  • #96,421
  • Mar 4, 2022 11:22am Mar 4, 2022 11:22am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} Extreme fear {image}
Yes, for sure. Fear is certainly a large component of what's driving these moves. However, definitely do not discount greed. There is plenty of greed. Greed that is currently taking advantage of peoples fears, yet probably knows exactly what it's doing. Milking it for every penny. Next week should be interesting, for sure.
  • #96,422
  • Mar 4, 2022 12:19pm Mar 4, 2022 12:19pm
Quoting Boulder
Month range low is 1.0877 area.. todays low 1.0885.. very close to it.. hope bears had enough. Now its way up..
It should act like 1088. It normally would bounce, 1088 would have usually gone to 1300. That's just normal. It did bounce 85 off the low, and 50 above 1088.

This ain't normal times. None of us have ever experienced anything close to this. So none of us have any benchmark to go by. Nobody knows where its going or how this ends. The fight is in Europe atm. Higher energy prices to me should be in Europe compared to the u.s.
If this fight continues or not. NATO countries will spend more money/resources on war. More GDP will be spent by everyone on war. Europe will spend more on energy. But will that normal energy demand be needed? Less people may go to work. More people may conserve. That's exactly what Americans should do now. Conserve fuel to help Europe's fight. We were not asked to sacrifice during the desert wars. We had no skin in the game. Unless you were fighting, you dont know.

Where the eu goes up or down seems less important today. After numbers like 1088 it pauses and drifts some. Normally it would bounce after 1.0921 to 1208. Half way above 1088..Good luck this ain't normal times. I look to short the bounce. But this isn't so important to me. Some of you in the right age may be forced to get skin in the game. Good luck.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #96,423
  • Mar 4, 2022 12:32pm Mar 4, 2022 12:32pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It should act like 1088. It normally would bounce, 1088 would have usually gone to 1300. That's just normal. It did bounce 85 off the low, and 50 above 1088. This ain't normal times. None of us have ever experienced anything close to this. So none of us have any benchmark to go by. Nobody knows where its going or how this ends. The fight is in Europe atm. Higher energy prices to me should be in Europe compared to the u.s. If this fight continues or not. NATO countries will spend more money/resources on war. More GDP will be spent by everyone...
I have never been here before. 1.0748 is below lots of our S in the 1.08xx. we all see those. 1.0748 has some R at 1.0934.7. ,, a lighter R at 1.0956.7.. For whats its worth. Bounces look to be gone. The 2008 drop was similar. 0934.7 hasnt been touched yet. Its less than a 50 pip bounce. Way less than normal..Much less than the 85 pips the last bounce.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #96,424
  • Mar 4, 2022 1:06pm Mar 4, 2022 1:06pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I have never been here before. 1.0748 is below lots of our S in the 1.08xx. we all see those. 1.0748 has some R at 1.0934.7. ,, a lighter R at 1.0956.7.. For whats its worth. Bounces look to be gone. The 2008 drop was similar. 0934.7 hasnt been touched yet. Its less than a 50 pip bounce. Way less than normal..Much less than the 85 pips the last bounce. {image}
1.0934.7 to the pipet touch high atm.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #96,425
  • Mar 4, 2022 1:34pm Mar 4, 2022 1:34pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} they are probably exaggerated this nuclear buildings are old and build to resist a plane going trough them and big attacks. i think there are a lot of problems with margins because of Russian assets being frozen not enough collateral commodities to the roof Europe in a worse position than US NATO clearly doesn't want to get involved. not sure if it's a bottom i am not fishing for one but we are pricing in a lot of bad bad bad stuff
All those plants need water. Its probably piped from a nearby river. Some green kid in a tank could just blow up pumphouse's. That's all it would take. Those electric powered pumps have backup axillary redundant systems. The systems wont take a missle. They dont need to hit the plant. Just a F-up. Like a guy running in or behind a building for cover. Just a little F-up. Can take them out. In the U.S. they are hardened with the cement dome. They have their own security. I dont think they are made for tank fire. Especially the outer pump buildings. They are softer. They have a limited supply of auxiliary power. Those auxiliary generators require diesel. They need the storage tanks maintained with diesel. I dont claim to know their situation. I hope all is well. I hope the Russians respect the water need. The reality being the Russians want the diesel for their tanks. I'm not real impressed with them so far. Murphy's law comes to mind. We should be pricing in bad stuff. Bad stuff is happening. Women and children are suffering and dying. A democracy is attacked by a madman. It's just not Poland (Warsaw Ghetto) this time. It may be the future "Ukraine Ghetto".
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #96,426
  • Mar 4, 2022 2:37pm Mar 4, 2022 2:37pm
No matter how bad nowadays it seems.. war or not...hedge funds continued to load up Eur longs ,which they have been doing for last several weeks..
this week they added more Eur longs again per cot report.
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  • #96,427
  • Mar 4, 2022 2:40pm Mar 4, 2022 2:40pm
Quoting Boulder
No matter how bad nowadays it seems.. war or not...hedge funds continued to load up Eur longs. Which they have been doing for last several weeks.. this week they add more longs again per cot report. {image}
They added more pound longs as well this week..
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  • #96,428
  • Mar 4, 2022 2:44pm Mar 4, 2022 2:44pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} They added more pound longs as well this week.. {image}
They added more dollar shorts this week...
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  • #96,429
  • Mar 4, 2022 3:00pm Mar 4, 2022 3:00pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1.0934.7 to the pipet touch high atm. {image}
Cott shows they were buying eu (selling USD). I want to state that. I have seen them wrong before. But most often they are right. Price atm price is lower than they bought (Tues/Weds). Price open Last Sunday was lower than the bought. Since they bought before mid week, indiscriminate shelling has a occurred. Also the shelling of a Nuke plant. Mid week there was a meeting with both sides. That didnt turn out well. Mid week there was some hope. Now? I think closing below 0921 is bearish. I dont know if it gaps again. With some more bad news it may.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #96,430
  • Mar 4, 2022 3:10pm Mar 4, 2022 3:10pm
Quoting Boulder
No matter how bad nowadays it seems.. war or not...hedge funds continued to load up Eur longs ,which they have been doing for last several weeks.. this week they added more Eur longs again per cot report. {image}
Good point. They have been eating bulls for breakfast, lunch, and dinner all week. The pickings are getting slim, and they are still hungry. Who do you think will be served up next?
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #96,431
  • Mar 4, 2022 3:18pm Mar 4, 2022 3:18pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} Good point. They have been eating bulls for breakfast, lunch, and dinner all week. The pickings are getting slim, and they are still hungry. Who do you think will be served up next?
I'm not to old to remember 2008. When a few of those smart hedge funds needed bailouts via the banking side.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #96,432
  • Mar 4, 2022 3:20pm Mar 4, 2022 3:20pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Cott shows they were buying eu (selling USD). I want to state that. I have seen them wrong before....
Have they been wrong, or is there another way to look at it? They are positional traders. They are not desperate to get in and out of trades. They also have massive orders to fill. Thus they have to buy and sell to move the market in their favor to fill those orders. If they are building long positions, then this suggests they intend to take prices higher. If you see them short in the process, it is usually because they are taking profits, and simultaneously moving the market downward to fill orders that have been left behind.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #96,433
  • Mar 4, 2022 4:48pm Mar 4, 2022 4:48pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} Have they been wrong, or is there another way to look at it? They are positional traders. They are not desperate to get in and out of trades. They also have massive orders to fill. Thus they have to buy and sell to move the market in their favor to fill those orders. If they are building long positions, then this suggests they intend to take prices higher. If you see them short in the process, it is usually because they are taking profits, and simultaneously moving the market downward to fill orders that have been left behind.
maybe so. If this be the case. Many are still waiting to recoup their winnings above 1.52. "They" is a generic term. "They" are probably better than most traders. But "they" lose too. "They" is an average of "Them". Sometime "We" see hedge funds fold. Because "they" made a bad trades. My silly point being. "They" are most often right. But "they: are controlled by world events. "They" are many billions in a 4 or 5 trillion dollar a day market. "They" are a tiny micro % of market. "They" hire the best and brightest traders. So "they" should be better than a pool of retail traders. But "they" are not big enough to move markets. "They" plus us, are at the mercy of the market. "They" are not market movers. "They" are followers. "They" follow patterns. One pattern being, the market pulls back. But another pattern being more rare, is. The market sometimes in a systemic event. Such as a financial banking crisis or war. It may pullback less or not at all. This current event may be both of these. More to follow
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #96,434
  • Mar 4, 2022 5:09pm Mar 4, 2022 5:09pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} maybe so. If this be the case. Many are still waiting to recoup their winnings above 1.52. "They" is a generic term. "They" are probably better than most traders. But "they" lose too. "They" is an average of "Them". Sometime "We" see hedge funds fold. Because "they" made a bad trades. My silly point being. "They" are most often right. But "they: are controlled by world events. "They" are many billions in a 4 or 5 trillion dollar a day market. "They" are a tiny micro % of market. "They" hire the best and brightest traders. So "they" should...
ATm The largest, and second largest country in Europe is at war. Russia cut off from E banks. Many loans were taking from these ebanks from Russians. Now these loans are not being paid back. So those ebanks will hold bad debt. And their mortgages will not be foreclosed on by e banks. So that bad debt remains until its written off. Ditto with Ukraine, at war. Many Ukranines will not be working. Many of the houses are damaged. With no insurance to fix them. Those Ebanks are in trouble. A stipulation in most Insurance policies is the "War Clause". In the event of war. The insurance becomes void.

#5 GDP and #23 E gdp are at war. The gdp of Russia is mostly energy related. Its selling to the GDP of #1 Germany. I dont know how this chapter ends. I dont think it ends good. If it involves other NATO nations. Those Ebanks will be in more trouble. It looks to be heading that way. I dont know the future. I dont like the direction its headed.

To answer the question, some are wrong. The ones short may be right. So using the generic "They" is a unanswerable question. "They " has long and shorts

Cott was done before mid week. Things worse after.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #96,435
  • Mar 4, 2022 5:24pm Mar 4, 2022 5:24pm
"they" as a group. Using "they", the past most as a guide to buy. Has not ended well for many. That could turn next week. But just to get to b.e. for some, maybe 400 pips. Cott to me, has been wrong the past month. 5% wrong.

So i stand by. "I have seen them wrong in the past".
I understand they are not leveraged retailers. But for me, a retailers point of view. If I'm wrong. I dont wanna be right


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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #96,436
  • Edited 6:06pm Mar 4, 2022 5:53pm | Edited 6:06pm
Quoting gatorinla
"they" as a group. Using "they", the past most as a guide to buy. Has not ended well for many. That could turn next week. But just to get to b.e. for some, maybe 400 pips. Cott to me, has been wrong the past month. 5% wrong. So i stand by. "I have seen them wrong in the past". I understand they are not leveraged retailers. But for me, a retailers point of view. If I'm wrong. I dont wanna be right https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWAUCVbnDUg {image}
I hope your ready.. Its about to get bad..
Russia as the 2nd largest producers of grains for feed and consumer use. Idk this is going to hurt..
The only way to devalue the food is to break the bullish dollar.. since its priced in dollars.. This will make the COT have more meaning,,

To give some perspective this is the Weekly chart underneath the top one.

If the effect was for the US to shoot its foot off and make them eat it.. It was played beautifully by china and russia and the people that advised the US to put on extreme sanctions
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  • #96,437
  • Edited 11:29pm Mar 4, 2022 6:05pm | Edited 11:29pm
MY bad here.. 1.0836/36 has some possible Support. It is above the 1.07 support. Also the close for the week was above 1.0921/24. It may gap down.. With the current info the close was above. That may give a bounce chance. I wouldn't hold my breath too much. 1.0835 is bigger than 1208.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #96,438
  • Mar 4, 2022 6:12pm Mar 4, 2022 6:12pm
Quoting q_import
{quote} I hope your ready.. Its about to get bad.. Russia as the 2nd largest producers of grains for feed and consumer use. Idk this is going to hurt.. The only way to devalue the food is to break the bullish dollar.. since its priced in dollars.. This will make the COT have more meaning,, To give some perspective this is the Weekly chart underneath the top one. If the effect was for the US to shoot its foot off and make them eat it.. It was played beautifully by china and russia and the people that advised the US to put on extreme sanctions {image}...
Collateral damage is 3rd world countries. In a free market when people cant afford stuff. They dont buy as much. Lack of demand brings price down. Food is one thing people cant live without. Demand remains high for food. When price goes up. More in the U.S. will grow more. Under the last administration farmers were paid more, (subsidies) to grow less. (China Tariff induced). Those fields will be tilled now. The U.S. can grow enough to feed most of the world. The Russians get their seed from the U.S.

One thing about where i live. We get a lot of knowledge on Russian agriculture from past events. And a lot about energy from past events.
The Russian grain embargo was here, and any oil related economy stuff.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #96,439
  • Mar 4, 2022 6:37pm Mar 4, 2022 6:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Collateral damage is 3rd world countries. In a free market when people cant afford stuff. They dont buy as much. Lack of demand brings price down. Food is one thing people cant live without. Demand remains high for food. When price goes up. More in the U.S. will grow more. Under the last administration farmers were paid more, (subsidies) to grow less. (China Tariff induced). Those fields will be tilled now. The U.S. can grow enough to feed most of the world. The Russians get their seed from the U.S. One thing about where i live. We get a...
James Hayes (Ways and Means Committee)rebuilt Louisiana with the embargo going..
After the banks collapse across the midwest and more..
  • #96,440
  • Mar 4, 2022 6:40pm Mar 4, 2022 6:40pm
Quoting q_import
{quote} James Hayes (Ways and Means Committee)rebuilt Louisiana with the embargo going.. After the banks collapse across the midwest and more..
I dont know what he did. We were in a depression in the 1980/92 oil
Wheat 1979/81 Before this, people were stealing barge loads of grain.

Buy potash. Whoever grows the grain will need it. India or the U.s... Belarus is sanctioned. More wheat will be grown somewhere else. they will need to stock more nitrogen and potash. Price will rise.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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