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The Swamp

  • #96,221
  • Mar 2, 2022 10:35am Mar 2, 2022 10:35am
Quoting Boulder
bull need close 1106+ to go high..
Thank you Chairman Powell.. all my longs Tp.. sideline for now...
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  • #96,222
  • Mar 2, 2022 10:36am Mar 2, 2022 10:36am
Quoting DMA Trader
interesting here 1.106 took some off in this area. 1.11 probably back in short but interesting to see dollar loosing steam while FED says 0.25% is ok for march risk on on some assets maybe eur can find some bottom no longs for me
back in shorts.
level important 1..15
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #96,223
  • Mar 2, 2022 10:51am Mar 2, 2022 10:51am
LC refused to close below 1088
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #96,224
  • Mar 2, 2022 10:54am Mar 2, 2022 10:54am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} back in shorts. level important 1..15
week range low has reached today.. I carefully look for longs for now...
long here 1108
added 1100
  • #96,225
  • Mar 2, 2022 11:26am Mar 2, 2022 11:26am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} back in shorts. level important 1..15
out again. probably we hit the lows again or even lower
but looking to see if we get some sort of bottom or not
not looking at all to go long
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #96,226
  • Edited 11:38am Mar 2, 2022 11:26am | Edited 11:38am
Quoting gatorinla
LC refused to close below 1088 {image}
The WTF bounce made it better than 1/2 way back to 1208.. Still a long way from 1276.
It didnt even make 1168.

I bet its going next to 1.0921, or 1276 next. 1168 is my first choice , but being a large number place, 1168 probably would not enough. If i choose 1151 it would be easier, Makbe for a short scalp. From there 1177 and/or 1208 has R value. I have to go with 1276. With a possible sweet spot 1276/1310. If it does get a bounce like this set sights on 1.0921(on the fall back after bounce). The same R on the way up as S on the way down. 1088 is still in the way. It did get a 12h close below. Bears need a day close below 1088 now. Bulls would need a new day close above 1208 to do anything. I suspect the most will be a wick to 1276/130x. Close a day below 1088 and that will cut some bull nuts. The fat lady aint song yet. You just witnessed 86 pips of her farting.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #96,227
  • Mar 2, 2022 11:44am Mar 2, 2022 11:44am
Bot protected. Bears need a day close below. If not, it will rise.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #96,228
  • Mar 2, 2022 11:59am Mar 2, 2022 11:59am
Once pa goes to 0921.. We can do this all again.. Once pa makes it back to 0921.. it will be like 1088 today. Once pa goes to 0921,m it may be back at 1088 again later. 1088 or 1208 may be R then. maybe somewhere between.. If forced to guess.. 1166.. may later be a high off a 0921 bounce.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #96,229
  • Mar 2, 2022 12:07pm Mar 2, 2022 12:07pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} week range low has reached today.. I carefully look for longs for now... long here 1108 added 1100
tp
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  • #96,230
  • Mar 2, 2022 12:22pm Mar 2, 2022 12:22pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} week range low has reached today.. I carefully look for longs for now... long here 1108 added 1100
flat the trade early at 1116.. done for the day,,
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  • #96,231
  • Mar 2, 2022 12:50pm Mar 2, 2022 12:50pm
gonna begin to short again at 1.115 if we get there

all other pairs go big against USD so war priced in ?
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #96,232
  • Mar 2, 2022 1:24pm Mar 2, 2022 1:24pm
Two Russian aircraft violated Swedish airspace a short while ago. Probably routine, but boy could things go south in a hurry.
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #96,233
  • Mar 2, 2022 1:28pm Mar 2, 2022 1:28pm
Word in Kiev is that the a full Russian push could be as early as tonight. Good luck to those people taking up arms. Godspeed.
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #96,234
  • Mar 2, 2022 3:10pm Mar 2, 2022 3:10pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
Word in Kiev is that the a full Russian push could be as early as tonight. Good luck to those people taking up arms. Godspeed.
It looks like they need a traffic cop. Some of the vehicles are broken, some out of diesel. Maybe they will need a push.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #96,235
  • Mar 2, 2022 5:07pm Mar 2, 2022 5:07pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
Word in Kiev is that the a full Russian push could be as early as tonight. Good luck to those people taking up arms. Godspeed.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #96,236
  • Edited 7:02pm Mar 2, 2022 6:50pm | Edited 7:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
Bot protected. Bears need a day close below. If not, it will rise. {image} {image}
Bulls have a day close above 1088. Possible bounce *1100.4/ 1096.7

The odds for revisiting 1208 are better with the close above 1088

Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The WTF bounce made it better than 1/2 way back to 1208.. Still a long way from 1276. It didnt even make 1168. I bet its going next to 1.0921, or 1276 next. 1168 is my first choice , but being a large number place, 1168 probably would not enough. If i choose 1151 it would be easier, Makbe for a short scalp. From there 1177 and/or 1208 has R value. I have to go with 1276. With a possible sweet spot 1276/1310. If it does get a bounce like this set sights on 1.0921(on the fall back after bounce). The same R on the way up as S on the way down. 1088 is still in the way. It did get a 12h close below. Bears need a day close below 1088 now. Bulls would need a new day close above 1208 to do anything. I suspect the most will be a wick to 1276/130x. Close a day below 1088 and that will cut some bull nuts. The fat lady aint song yet. You just witnessed 86 pips of her farting. {image} {image}
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #96,237
  • Mar 2, 2022 7:45pm Mar 2, 2022 7:45pm
Quoting 7thTorch
{quote} The convoy is shorter than 60 km. Occasional gaps along the convoy can be seen, probably caused by breakdowns or other technical problems. The structure of the convoy is such that it contains infantry transporters, tanks, armored vehicles, fuel and food supply vehicles, etc. On both sides of the road "previously burned earth" can be seen, apparently the convoy is trying to secure its way to Kiev. The convoy was probably "covered" by air defenses. From the military point of view, the movement of such a convoy is not a super tactical move....
I heard the ground is marshy and not frozen. Some vehicles off the edge are stuck. 3 wide on a road. Little room to turn a wheeled vehicle. Looks like they left the invasion mats home. Broke down lead tanks/vehicles out of fuel. Blocking the ones behind them. This is keystone cops looking. One burning stuck vehicle sets the other on fire. That should limit a supply line for fuel later. Meanwhile the Ukraine's have time to develop some surprises in the city. The Russians should win. But they look to be doing everything they can to loose. Is there sabotage in the leadership? Something dont seem right. Fuel shortage, food shortage etc. Trucks/tanks sitting like ducks on the road 3 wide. Little spacing, come on. Is this on purpose? Is leadership killing its own soldiers? Or is it lack of leadership?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #96,238
  • Mar 2, 2022 8:25pm Mar 2, 2022 8:25pm
Old or new, a tracked tank with its belly in mud is stuck. That wont changes unless it gets the belly off the ground.

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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #96,239
  • Mar 2, 2022 8:30pm Mar 2, 2022 8:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I heard the ground is marshy and not frozen. Some vehicles off the edge are stuck. 3 wide on a road. Little room to turn a wheeled vehicle. Looks like they left the invasion mats home. Broke down lead tanks/vehicles out of fuel. Blocking the ones behind them. This is keystone cops looking. One burning stuck vehicle sets the other on fire. That should limit a supply line for fuel later. Meanwhile the Ukraine's have time to develop some surprises in the city. The Russians should win. But they look to be doing everything they can to loose....
Probably both of what you say.
There are a lot of questions. Why a huge convoy for so many days, on display, visible, etc.?
Closing the west wing towards the Polish border? Disabling and neutralizing western supply lines?
Odessa is dormant for now, they are not touching it.
Russian hordes must not be underestimated...
  • #96,240
  • Mar 2, 2022 9:06pm Mar 2, 2022 9:06pm
Quoting 7thTorch
{quote} Probably both of what you say. There are a lot of questions. Why a huge convoy for so many days, on display, visible, etc.? Closing the west wing towards the Polish border? Disabling and neutralizing western supply lines? Odessa is dormant for now, they are not touching it. Russian hordes must not be underestimated...
I thought the Russians knew what they were doing. At what i see, they better hope the Swiss dont attack them. I dont see the genius in this. Now i know why those generals looked like they were crying.

Russia is reporting 500 KIA. I hear 5-6k from other sources. I assume Moscow is lying. Maybe both are. With that other tanks convoy losing 56 tanks. 5-6k seems to be a closer number. 56 tanks plus support vehicles. I'm sure some troop transport was mixed in there. This was a slaughter.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukrain...r-kyiv-report/

https://www.npr.org/2022/03/02/10839...ine-deaths-war
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