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Trading with Volume and maybe a horizontal line

  • #101
  • Mar 2, 2022 12:43am Mar 2, 2022 12:43am
I've been watching UJ for a long, but it might end up just pushing up and I'll have to wait and see what happens at 115.58
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  • #102
  • Mar 2, 2022 2:25am Mar 2, 2022 2:25am
This screenshot is out of date, I'm up like +15 right now.

I had to reverse engineer the HVC, USDCAD is kinda my default pair that I watch. High volume was coming in on the M30 so I started looking left to see what lined up and found the highest volume bar on feb 25th. That 25th bar is weak, its a down bar but it pushed through the previous low.

You'll notice that late yesterday price tried to find support off the HVC, but fell through so its support turned resistance.

Watching the M15/H1 charts and will see how price reacts to the fib levels for exit, ideally though I'm looking for 1.2678 or 1.2653.
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  • #103
  • Edited 5:06am Mar 2, 2022 4:46am | Edited 5:06am
Quoting Anotan
This screenshot is out of date, I'm up like +15 right now. I had to reverse engineer the HVC, USDCAD is kinda my default pair that I watch. High volume was coming in on the M30 so I started looking left to see what lined up and found the highest volume bar on feb 25th. That 25th bar is weak, its a down bar but it pushed through the previous low. You'll notice that late yesterday price tried to find support off the HVC, but fell through so its support turned resistance. Watching the M15/H1 charts and will see how price reacts to the fib levels for...
This fib theory works some or the other way on charts. I am also experimenting with it. GBPUSD.. Price reached low of 24th Feb. That marked bar (vertical line ) looks to me like shakeout at the low. and if I draw fib from yesterday's high vol bar 1.3286 (-38.2% level acted as a good support price doesn't seem to go below that. it keeps rejecting it. I took long (I took it lately though). let's see how it plays out, targeting 1.3338
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Learning is a never ending Journey
  • #104
  • Mar 2, 2022 7:09am Mar 2, 2022 7:09am
Quoting Anotan
This screenshot is out of date, I'm up like +15 right now. I had to reverse engineer the HVC, USDCAD is kinda my default pair that I watch. High volume was coming in on the M30 so I started looking left to see what lined up and found the highest volume bar on feb 25th. That 25th bar is weak, its a down bar but it pushed through the previous low. You'll notice that late yesterday price tried to find support off the HVC, but fell through so its support turned resistance. Watching the M15/H1 charts and will see how price reacts to the fib levels for...
Closed this down, rate announcement is coming up in a couple of hours and I was a couple of pips away from 3:1 RR. I'm sure it will hit at least the 1.2678 though.
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  • #105
  • Mar 2, 2022 8:02am Mar 2, 2022 8:02am
Quoting PranithR
{quote} This fib theory works some or the other way on charts. I am also experimenting with it. GBPUSD.. Price reached low of 24th Feb. That marked bar (vertical line ) looks to me like shakeout at the low. and if I draw fib from yesterday's high vol bar 1.3286 (-38.2% level acted as a good support price doesn't seem to go below that. it keeps rejecting it. I took long (I took it lately though). let's see how it plays out, targeting 1.3338{image}
GU : Half position closed at 1.3320, remaining half running, sl at BE. Hoping price could reach 50%.
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Learning is a never ending Journey
  • #106
  • Mar 2, 2022 8:07am Mar 2, 2022 8:07am
Quoting PranithR
{quote} GU : Half position closed at 1.3320, remaining half running, sl at BE. Hoping price could reach 50%. {image}
I'm happy you moved your TP up, your first pic when it was at 23% looked like it was just a little more than 1:1.
  • #107
  • Mar 2, 2022 9:20pm Mar 2, 2022 9:20pm
Quoting PranithR
{quote} GU : Half position closed at 1.3320, remaining half running, sl at BE. Hoping price could reach 50%. {image}
GU: Price has gone way more than 50%, and found some resistance (supply) at 23%

There is no clear setup till now in Asia.
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  • #108
  • Edited 11:12pm Mar 2, 2022 10:58pm | Edited 11:12pm
Quoting PranithR
{quote} GU: Price has gone way more than 50%, and found some resistance (supply) at 23% There is no clear setup till now in Asia. {image}
I would expect a move further up, yesterday's highest volume up bar looks like absorption pushing through the 23%. The bar after the absorption is a test bar with price pushing higher, at the moment there doesn't appear to be any weakness.

It was a good trade though, if you watch H1 on a normal dayaround the session opens you will usually see volume increase for 3-4 bars, then volume declines again. Looking at your GU chart yesterday around the London session volume was increasing on 5 bars, thats usually a sign that a big move is coming up.
  • #109
  • Edited 11:25pm Mar 2, 2022 11:12pm | Edited 11:25pm
So I'll be the first person to admit that I forced this trade. The reason why this is a forced trade is because the trigger line isn't how I normally draw HVC.

What I see is Yesterday's highest volume bar is a wide spread down bar on climatic volume with the next bar wildely up so I'm very bullish, I saw the squat bar today in Asia followed by a shakeout, I noticed the shakeout tagged the close from the up bar after the climatic volume and I just bought as price started moving above the test.

This trade really is I'm bullish because of PA and looked for an excuse to trade.
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  • #110
  • Edited 11:52pm Mar 2, 2022 11:40pm | Edited 11:52pm
Quoting Anotan
So I'll be the first person to admit that I forced this trade. The reason why this is a forced trade is because the trigger line isn't how I normally draw HVC. What I see is Yesterday's highest volume bar is a wide spread down bar on climatic volume with the next bar wildely up so I'm very bullish, I saw the squat bar today in Asia followed by a shakeout, I noticed the shakeout tagged the close from the up bar after the climatic volume and I just bought as price started moving above the test. This trade really is I'm bullish because of PA and looked...
this is really nice learning. Like you said, Only one bar or one HV doesn't decide that next move, It's a series of PA after that. I think you are up +15
Learning is a never ending Journey
  • #111
  • Mar 3, 2022 12:35am Mar 3, 2022 12:35am
Quoting PranithR
{quote} this is really nice learning. Like you said, Only one bar or one HV doesn't decide that next move, It's a series of PA after that. I think you are up +15
Its great youre getting something out of this, when I was learning it was just me going over old posts in the VSA thread which was tough.

I took off 2/3 of the trade at basically 2:1RR. You always expect to see supply at resistance, but AU started seeing supply before it touch the resistance. Wait and see if it pushes through, but seeing repeated supply as we approach resistance has me spooked at the moment.
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  • #112
  • Mar 3, 2022 2:16am Mar 3, 2022 2:16am
This can certainly be in my learning notes.
USDCAD: not in-home session but in Asia if found good resistance at -23%, showing series of weakness upthrusts and failed test would have been a good entry point, then price rallied down to -38.2 level. if we don't see any signs of strength, the price can go to -61.8 level
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  • #113
  • Mar 3, 2022 2:16am Mar 3, 2022 2:16am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} Its great youre getting something out of this, when I was learning it was just me going over old posts in the VSA thread which was tough. I took off 2/3 of the trade at basically 2:1RR. You always expect to see supply at resistance, but AU started seeing supply before it touch the resistance. Wait and see if it pushes through, but seeing repeated supply as we approach resistance has me spooked at the moment. {image}
I closed this trade out, I'm flat.

On m30 there is sort of a failed test. Its misleading because the next bar didn't close below the test, but the next bar closed down and this current bar is coming off. This trade is basically a 2:1RR so I can't complain too much.

Going to take tomorrow off from trading, its NFP Friday and I have some things that I need to get done during the day.
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  • #114
  • Mar 8, 2022 6:45am Mar 8, 2022 6:45am
Missed this entry because of fear, easy 30+pips, clean rejection to the upside of today's home session close, and marked bullish volume.
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  • #115
  • Mar 9, 2022 2:20am Mar 9, 2022 2:20am
Quoting PranithR
Missed this entry because of fear, easy 30+pips, clean rejection to the upside of today's home session close, and marked bullish volume. {image}
Here's the thing, if you come at trading fearful you're just setting yourself up for failure. You'll end up trying to pick and choose your trades which leads to missed wins which leads to forcing trades.. You have to come at trading with a positive attitude.

Just an idea, that you might want to hold off on trading for a little bit until you have firm trading plan. Might be better if you went with something that is a little more mechanical. Maybe go back and back test 2-3 months worth of data, take screen shots of the setups and track the stats.. I.E. Wins / Losses / Breakevens. You could even break that down into dollar amounts on how much you've would've made in that time period.

VZA wouldn't be too hard to make it mechanical with a little bit of basic market structure.

Just stick with fibbing the previous day's highest volume bar and look for either ABC patterns or double tops/bottoms. The short yesterday on AU had an ABC pattern on it.

Maybe place your stop loss at the last swing high/low, take off 1/2 the positions at 1:1 and aim for 3:1 TP. Anything over a 33% win rate will be profit. If you have a mechanical trading plan, screen shots and stats that should help with your fear. Trading isn't about being right, its about exploiting your edge.

ABC Pattern: This is a ABC with point A at the 50%, you could also do point A at the 100%. Just reverse for longs.

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Here is an example of a double top into the 0%.
  • #116
  • Mar 9, 2022 3:23am Mar 9, 2022 3:23am
UC short : failed test at yesterdays HV close
It may be 2bar reversal also at HV close
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  • #117
  • Mar 9, 2022 3:27am Mar 9, 2022 3:27am
Quoting PranithR
Missed this entry because of fear, easy 30+pips, clean rejection to the upside of today's home session close, and marked bullish volume. {image}
Quoting Anotan
{quote} Maybe place your stop loss at the last swing high/low, take off 1/2 the positions at 1:1 and aim for 3:1 TP.
Also I don't know if you have a trade manager, they're helpful for partial targets. I use MPTM (multi purpose trade manager) for when I take partial profits. The EA is free, but I think the creator wants people to sign up at forum to download it. I don't want to step on any toes by uploading it here. https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com
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  • #118
  • Mar 9, 2022 3:30am Mar 9, 2022 3:30am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} {quote} Also I don't know if you have a trade manager, they're helpful for partial targets. I use MPTM (multi purpose trade manager) for when I take partial profits. The EA is free, but I think the creator wants people to sign up at forum to download it. I don't want to step on any toes by uploading it here. https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com {image}
thanks, anotan. 'll try it.
Learning is a never ending Journey
  • #119
  • Mar 11, 2022 4:16am Mar 11, 2022 4:16am
AU short: Price found supply at yesterdays HV close , If we see at its level there was supply on 8th march. Price clearly rejected the Home session close, making upthrust
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  • #120
  • Mar 11, 2022 9:45am Mar 11, 2022 9:45am
EA short: Taken after clean price rejection at yesterdays HV close and weakness on 15min chart failed test
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