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  • #421
  • Feb 18, 2022 6:27am Feb 18, 2022 6:27am
Quoting oohoo
Hello Rajesh! How do you treat this kind of situations? When LT EMAs started to shrink, but then expand again. Do you wait for a new expansion of LT EMAs and new space to emerge between LT and ST EMAs? Or do you treat it as a continuation of the previous trend, which makes it possible to enter on usual rules (EMA channel, RSIs, Fibo). {image}
oohoo, the price action and the ema channel is too far from the LT group. the chances are the price will return back to LT group. so this is not a good setup to trade.
the best trades are when price wicks or small candles come into or near the LT group ( pullback ) and then the candle closes beyond the ema channel (continuation pattern).
  • #422
  • Feb 18, 2022 6:58am Feb 18, 2022 6:58am
Quoting walvekarraje
{quote} oohoo, the price action and the ema channel is too far from the LT group. the chances are the price will return back to LT group. so this is not a good setup to trade. the best trades are when price wicks or small candles come into or near the LT group ( pullback ) and then the candle closes beyond the ema channel (continuation pattern).
I probably failed to explain it.
In order to validate a proper trend, we need the separation that I have marked on the picture. Then comes contraction. Then EMAs start to re-expand, and price exits the 10-EMA channel. This is the rightmost end of my chart - my question is about this (I've marked on a new picture).
At this point where I marked,
Do you wait for a new expansion of LT EMAs and new space to emerge between LT and ST EMAs?
Or do you treat it as a continuation of the previous trend, which makes it possible to enter on usual rules (EMA channel, RSIs, Fibo).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #423
  • Feb 18, 2022 7:33am Feb 18, 2022 7:33am
Quoting oohoo
{quote} I probably failed to explain it. In order to validate a proper trend, we need the separation that I have marked on the picture. Then comes contraction. Then EMAs start to re-expand, and price exits the 10-EMA channel. This is the rightmost end of my chart - my question is about this (I've marked on a new picture). At this point where I marked, Do you wait for a new expansion of LT EMAs and new space to emerge between LT and ST EMAs? Or do you treat it as a continuation of the previous trend, which makes it possible to enter on usual rules...
Yes, treat it as a continuation of the previous trend, which makes it possible to enter on usual rules (EMA channel, RSIs, Fibo).
  • #424
  • Feb 21, 2022 12:23am Feb 21, 2022 12:23am
Quoting walvekarraje
{quote} Yes, treat it as a continuation of the previous trend, which makes it possible to enter on usual rules (EMA channel, RSIs, Fibo).
Thanks, oohoo and walvekarraje for a useful conversation.

I have scanned my forex charts and there's nothing that meets the criteria on H4. I guess it's the Ukraine story that is making it a "risk off" environment.
  • #425
  • Edited 6:34pm Feb 21, 2022 4:58am | Edited 6:34pm
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} I have scanned my forex charts and there's nothing that meets the criteria on H4. I guess it's the Ukraine story that is making it a "risk off" environment.
very true. look at nifty(index) h1 chart today. last 7 candles (market is open 6 hrs 15 min.. hence 7 candles)
massive gap down open > 1.5% decline, second candle bullish engulfing, 3rd and 4th candles taking index to >1.5 % in positive territory. 5th candle bearish engulfing previous 2 candles.. finaly index closing almost at opening price.
Vix more than 23....
all the equity charts were same as index.
extremly difficult to trade, with stoplosses hitting on both sides.
i took one trade and obviously my SL was hit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: niftty.png Size: 19 KB
  • #426
  • Feb 23, 2022 12:08am Feb 23, 2022 12:08am
What do you think about my analysis, and if price breaks the channel downwards, is this a tradable opportunity. I'm thinking that it is.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #427
  • Feb 23, 2022 12:14am Feb 23, 2022 12:14am
Quoting Spudfan
What do you think about my analysis, and if price breaks the channel downwards, is this a tradable opportunity. I'm thinking that it is. {image}
And what about this one?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp h4.png Size: 36 KB
  • #428
  • Feb 23, 2022 2:28am Feb 23, 2022 2:28am
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} And what about this one? {image}
agreed
  • #429
  • Feb 23, 2022 3:30am Feb 23, 2022 3:30am
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} And what about this one? {image}
EURGBP - I think the ST hasn't separated enough from LT.

EURJPY - agree that it is setting up.
  • #430
  • Feb 23, 2022 10:53am Feb 23, 2022 10:53am
I missed something:
Some systems I read the first pullback is more useful, some others say not the first pullback to be in use.
Guppy's idea is to use the 3rd pullback only?
Thank you guys
Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #431
  • Feb 23, 2022 11:11pm Feb 23, 2022 11:11pm
Quoting since80808
I missed something: Some systems I read the first pullback is more useful, some others say not the first pullback to be in use. Guppy's idea is to use the 3rd pullback only? Thank you guys
It's up to you which system you want to follow, and probably all are valid, although I don't recall Daryl Guppy saying to take the third pullback. The walvekar method advises using both the first and the second pullback/breakout patterns after a new trend has formed, with the first being the better one.

I quote from his document:
Once a new trend has been established, we wait for a pullback to the L/T EMAs and enter when price resumes in the trend direction and breaks out of the 10 EMA channel. We enter at the close of that candle. This would be the first pullback/breakout pattern in the new trend. We can also trade the second pullback/breakout pattern but from there the odds diminish so we do not trade until a new trend has formed.

Hope this helps.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Walvekar trading system 4 Feb 22.pdf   310 KB | 363 downloads
  • #432
  • Feb 24, 2022 2:42am Feb 24, 2022 2:42am
Quoting oohoo
{quote} EURGBP - I think the ST hasn't separated enough from LT. EURJPY - agree that it is setting up.
You got that dead right! EURGBP is only now looking like it is breaking the 10 EMA channel. But just look at EURJPY!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy h4.png Size: 35 KB
  • #433
  • Feb 24, 2022 5:50am Feb 24, 2022 5:50am
Quoting since80808
I missed something: Some systems I read the first pullback is more useful, some others say not the first pullback to be in use. Guppy's idea is to use the 3rd pullback only? Thank you guys
dont count pullbacks. look at the bigger picture in higher timeframes. look at the strength of trend in current time frame.
let me try to explain one of the instruments i have been successfully trading since many months.

look at its daily chart. it is falling from sept 2021 till date for reasons i dont know.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mgl daily 1.png Size: 39 KB

on hourly time frame it has given me excellent opportunities and given me many profitable trades.
look at the hourly chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mgl hourly.png Size: 39 KB

i have taken almost every trade at break of 10 ema low

now look at yesterdays entry.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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almost all criteria of technical analysis fullfilled..... support.. support tested once... support broken.... support becomes resistance..... and our entry candle closing below 10 ema low. all gyppies very well saperated. after entry all candles closing outside 10 ema channel suggesting very strong down trend. today the market was
so weak that i just closed my 2 positions at the end of the day.( no fibo targets)

guppy is a trend trading system. if you find a strong trend, dont let it go. our entry rules are well defined, sl and targets depend on your trading mentality.

Plan the trade and trade the plan
  • #434
  • Feb 25, 2022 5:27am Feb 25, 2022 5:27am
Quoting walvekarraje
{quote} dont count pullbacks. look at the bigger picture in higher timeframes. look at the strength of trend in current time frame. let me try to explain one of the instruments i have been successfully trading since many months. look at its daily chart. it is falling from sept 2021 till date for reasons i dont know. {image} on hourly time frame it has given me excellent opportunities and given me many profitable trades. look at the hourly chart. {image} i have taken almost every trade at break of 10 ema low now look at yesterdays entry..... {image}...
Some years ago when I was learning to speak Swahili, I proudly told a friend in the village that I had bought 7 chapatis. A short while later he arrived with 7 chapatis. Turns out I had used the future tense, not the past tense and he worked out that I must be asking him to buy some for me. I refunded him and gave him the extra chapatis to take back home.

When we are learning anything like a new language it's not possible to use complex sentence structure or idioms and so forth. We're just not advanced in our usage at that stage. It's the same here. As an advanced user, walvekarraje knows when and how to bend the rules, but for us scrubbers, we have to draw by numbers and follow the dots, which is why we produced the walvekarraje trading method document - those are our rules. So for now you will need to keep an eye on what the rules say about pullbacks, but one day we will be able to do the advanced things that he described above with ease. And with the example walvekarraje has kindly provided, maybe give it a go and see what happens?
  • #435
  • Feb 25, 2022 9:44pm Feb 25, 2022 9:44pm
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} but one day we will be able to do the advanced things that he described above with ease. And with the example walvekarraje has kindly provided, maybe give it a go and see what happens?
very well said Spudfan sir.
i will suggest using strategy tester tool in MT4 to simulate charts and practice virtual trades. it is much better than manual backtesting. easy to document the pros and cons of any trading system. for those who dont know how to use strategy tester i will post a short tutorial in my next post
  • #436
  • Feb 25, 2022 10:29pm Feb 25, 2022 10:29pm
steps for using strategy tester in MT4
1) click View Tab and open Strategy Tester/ Ctrl+R
2) select symbol and period
3) tick Use date and select any random dates you want.
4) tick Visual mode and select max speed on the slider.
5) Click Start
your screen should look like this....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: strategy tester.png Size: 51 KB
to get the templete you want right click on the chart and select the templete you want.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: strategy tester 1.png Size: 71 KB

once you get the templete click start again.
your candles and indicators will start printing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: strategy tester 2.png Size: 79 KB
use the pause /play button in front of Visual mode as you wish.
you can draw trendlines, fibos etc also in tester.
H1 candle takes approx 1 to 2 min according to the indicators in your templete.
only drawback is the multi time frame (MTF) indicators dont work in strategy tester.
  • #437
  • Mar 7, 2022 10:00am Mar 7, 2022 10:00am
Hi Guppy Traders,
due to very high volatility in the market i am not trading futures. the chances of hitting SL on both sides is very very high in equities as well as indices.
one more way of trading volatility using Guppy is as follows :-
look at our chart of india volatility index (India VIX)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: india vix.png Size: 45 KB

when the volatility index is more than 20 and Guppy LT group well spaced and daily candle close beyond 10 ema channel (candle marked with crosshair)..... this is the time to sell options because the time value is extremly high. the best is at the money strike price as it has the highest time value. in india we have weekly expiry for indiices (nifty and bank nifty). the best instrument to trade is the index as it is the most liquid of all instruments. if the trend is good or even side ways, the time value decayes rapidly. so 5 days a week trading if you sell at the money option according to our chart. it will become out of the money at the end of the week (Thursday). all out of the money options become worthless (zero) at the end of week. so such trades are extremly high probablity and passive trades. the profits though limited are certain.

i have no idea if this can be applied in currency markets, but if it can be..... very high probablity very low risk ( no brainer, no screen time ) trades can be done.
  • #438
  • Mar 7, 2022 10:06am Mar 7, 2022 10:06am
Please ignore my last 2 posts if they are not helpful in currency markets
  • #439
  • Mar 11, 2022 10:40am Mar 11, 2022 10:40am
Quoting walvekarraje
in india we have weekly expiry for indiices
Hello!
I tried to adapt it to some other indexes but I'm afraid it's core is weekly expiry so I haven't seen a lot of profitable sells after big candles beyond 10maChannel
Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #440
  • Edited 9:37am Mar 12, 2022 9:26am | Edited 9:37am
Quoting since80808
{quote} Hello! I tried to adapt it to some other indexes but I'm afraid it's core is weekly expiry so I haven't seen a lot of profitable sells after big candles beyond 10maChannel
i agree sir,
that is why i have posted specific details in my post .

last 2-3 weeks i am not trading futures but selling options( selling call options to be specific )...... because the markets are in downtrend and too volatile .

voltility index is the key to decide what method of trading should be used.

in one of my posts i have posted my strategy to buy equities in a very long term prespective.
post 163
i am waiting for my signals to buy equities in cash.( timeframe D1)

all future and otions trades are on guppy trend following system and 10 ema channel and H1 timeframe
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