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The Swamp

  • #95,761
  • Feb 21, 2022 3:08pm Feb 21, 2022 3:08pm
Quoting xav
{quote} One and half weeks later I wonder how much of the Russian news is not already priced in. The only thing I see is that non-commercials are significantly reducing short positions.
How can one price in a war? One that we dont know who it will involve yet? If Ukraine is taken. Why not take another? World War One started with a handgun.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,762
  • Feb 21, 2022 3:15pm Feb 21, 2022 3:15pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I closed a scalp on the drop to 1308 myself. I re-entered 1318. I think the Fed is in this some.
The biggest risk in shorting to me seems an agreement with the Russians. So until 1286 & 1387 holds I'm in range trading. Also, non-commercials have reduced their shorts significantly (about 10k vs reducing longs by 1k). I just don't see how much eu can (is allowed) to fall.
  • #95,763
  • Feb 21, 2022 3:22pm Feb 21, 2022 3:22pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} How can one price in a war? One that we dont know who it will involve yet? If Ukraine is taken. Why not take another? World War One started with a handgun.
WWI started with everybody wanting a war. WWII was simply an inevitable continuation of WWI. WWIII will be over something much more important than East Ukraine. I can see Ukraine becoming another Afghanistan where all the big armies can fail miserably and nobody will be able to hang on to it for much. At great cost.
  • #95,764
  • Feb 21, 2022 3:49pm Feb 21, 2022 3:49pm
Quoting xav
{quote} WWI started with everybody wanting a war. WWII was simply an inevitable continuation of WWI. WWIII will be over something much more important than East Ukraine. I can see Ukraine becoming another Afghanistan where all the big armies can fail miserably and nobody will be able to hang on to it for much. At great cost.
I wasn't around for either WW1 or WW2. I never did the survey on who wanted war. I never heard everybody agree on anything before. My Dad was a what was called a sharpshooter in WW2. I can assure you he didnt want a war at 17. I can assure walking across France to Germany. In the coldest winter ever recorded. With frostbite, wasn't what he wanted. I can assure you, he and the one other survivor. In his unit, didnt want war.

Come man, you can't seriously break world war 1 or 2 that way. Do you really think outside forces wont send food, arms and fuel to Ukraine? Then they do. Do you think Putin will be pissed? In World War 2 the german U-boats were sinking U.S. ships for just that reason. Don't you think Russia would attack a shipment of Javelins if they could? Well guess what, the U.S. and NATO will do just that. I think people are being naive about those possibilities'. Hell Ukraine would pull NATO in if possible. I know everybody thinks this cant happen. Hopefully you are right. But what if your wrong? Have you ever been wrong? Hell I'm wrong all the time.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,765
  • Feb 21, 2022 4:10pm Feb 21, 2022 4:10pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I wasn't around for either WW1 or WW2. I never did the survey on who wanted war. I never heard everybody agree on anything before. My Dad was a what was called a sharpshooter in WW2. I can assure you he didnt want a war at 17. I can assure walking across France to Germany. In the coldest winter ever recorded. With frostbite, wasn't what he wanted. I can assure you, he and the one other survivor. In his unit, didnt want war. Come man, you can't seriously break world war 1 or 2 that way. Do you really think outside forces wont send food, arms...
OK, by 'everyone' I meant countries' leadership plus a huge portion of the citizenry. I don't have numbers. But there were celebrations on the streets all across Europe. Obviously people sent to die weren't that keen. And this was WWI when everybody thought it'll be a quick and easy war like any of the previous ones. WWII was different. Nobody wanted that war because everyone alive remembered how horrible the first one was. That's why it was dragged out. But this is history.
Right now I believe both sides are bluffing and I give a higher chance to getting some agreement. Yes, I've been wrong before and I keep reminding myself about it: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...79#post2363179
I also think that in case of WWIII the last thing on my mind will be EUR/USD. Neither currency would worth enough to get food in exchange. It's hard to convince anyone during a nuclear holocaust to exchange anything tangible for a piece of paper. Much less an electronic signal. So the best I can do is to plan for WWIII not starting. If I'm wrong, then there's very little I can do in preparation.
Of course, it can only be a local conflict and this war can go on. As it started in 2014. Not a week ago...
  • #95,766
  • Edited 5:32pm Feb 21, 2022 5:21pm | Edited 5:32pm
Quoting xav
{quote} OK, by 'everyone' I meant countries' leadership plus a huge portion of the citizenry. I don't have numbers. But there were celebrations on the streets all across Europe. Obviously people sent to die weren't that keen. And this was WWI when everybody thought it'll be a quick and easy war like any of the previous ones. WWII was different. Nobody wanted that war because everyone alive remembered how horrible the first one was. That's why it was dragged out. But this is history. Right now I believe both sides are bluffing and I give a higher...
Well if up to me. I'd punch a bully square in the mouth. Chamberlin let this go before WW2. This is about the same situation today. The only thing a bully understands is force. Putin will be on another border if allowed the do this. Not all leadership was pro war before WW1 or 2. I'm not pro war today. But you cant sit back and allow Putin or anyone else do this.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,767
  • Feb 21, 2022 10:02pm Feb 21, 2022 10:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Well if up to me. I'd punch a bully square in the mouth. Chamberlin let this go before WW2. This is about the same situation today. The only thing a bully understands is force. Putin will be on another border if allowed the do this. Not all leadership was pro war before WW1 or 2. I'm not pro war today. But you cant sit back and allow Putin or anyone else do this.
One of the sad ironies of history is that Chamberlain's actions stopped a plot by senior German command to remove Hitler if he went ahead with his war plans. There was sense in enough military people that he was slightly mad. The Munich Agreement, which gave Hitler Sudetenland, did not prevent war, it only broadened it. Putin's speech today gave me the impression that he is not living entirely within the bounds of reality. If the world concedes and just gives him the territory he's claimed by a simple declaration, then it simply invites more war to come. Futures are tanking, but the civilized world can't just kick the can down the road and think the problem has gone away.
Follow the money --Mark Felt (Deepthroat)
  • #95,768
  • Feb 22, 2022 3:03am Feb 22, 2022 3:03am
Quoting longfellow
{quote} One of the sad ironies of history is that Chamberlain's actions stopped a plot by senior German command to remove Hitler if he went ahead with his war plans. There was sense in enough military people that he was slightly mad. The Munich Agreement, which gave Hitler Sudetenland, did not prevent war, it only broadened it. Putin's speech today gave me the impression that he is not living entirely within the bounds of reality. If the world concedes and just gives him the territory he's claimed by a simple declaration, then it simply invites...
I would imagine Navalny is in bad conditions now.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,769
  • Feb 22, 2022 3:12am Feb 22, 2022 3:12am
1339 may attract.
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,770
  • Feb 22, 2022 3:32am Feb 22, 2022 3:32am
Quoting gatorinla
1339 may attract. {image}
Some R 1351/53. 1369.9 did hold the last day close below. Pa is coming on a 12h close in 30 min. 1331/39/551 may hold the close below. I'm thinking 1339ish could drop it after. If so, 1269 is adr. Week range 1246
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,771
  • Feb 22, 2022 3:58am Feb 22, 2022 3:58am
Quoting longfellow
{quote} One of the sad ironies of history is that Chamberlain's actions stopped a plot by senior German command to remove Hitler if he went ahead with his war plans. There was sense in enough military people that he was slightly mad. The Munich Agreement, which gave Hitler Sudetenland, did not prevent war, it only broadened it. Putin's speech today gave me the impression that he is not living entirely within the bounds of reality. If the world concedes and just gives him the territory he's claimed by a simple declaration, then it simply invites...
When and after the Grandparents are older or dead. About the time the grandparents are 90 years old or more. Different cultures with different generations, but the 75 year time remains constant. The Grandchildren/Great grandchildren get stupid. The older generation is no longer there, to remind of the first-hand pain. It happens about every 70/80 years. The grandchildren repeat the past. You can see a historical tyrant come up about that often. He blames some culture for his own culture's struggles. The solution is always to attack and take their stuff. Its been happening since we lived in caves. It just evolved into governments or religions. Often to take focus off one's leadership of a failing system. The wolf is at the door, he will eat your children. Nato may have extended the 75 years some. There is a few that if allowed, Would be the next tyrant. They are lining up. Pick a country. There are several to choose from.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,772
  • Feb 22, 2022 4:25am Feb 22, 2022 4:25am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Some R 1351/53. 1369.9 did hold the last day close below. Pa is coming on a 12h close in 30 min. 1331/39/51 may hold the close below. I'm thinking 1339ish could drop it after. If so, 1269 is adr. Week range 1246
into that 1339 area now.
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,773
  • Feb 22, 2022 8:24am Feb 22, 2022 8:24am
1327/28 area may bounce some. with some 1315/24 possible support.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,774
  • Feb 22, 2022 8:57am Feb 22, 2022 8:57am
Quoting longfellow
{quote} One of the sad ironies of history is that Chamberlain's actions stopped a plot by senior German command to remove Hitler if he went ahead with his war plans. There was sense in enough military people that he was slightly mad. The Munich Agreement, which gave Hitler Sudetenland, did not prevent war, it only broadened it. Putin's speech today gave me the impression that he is not living entirely within the bounds of reality. If the world concedes and just gives him the territory he's claimed by a simple declaration, then it simply invites...
Since Pearl Harbor was bombed. To the Germans losing WW2. Its all been dependent on oil. Putin sees the future. Oil is losing its grip slowly. When oil is less needed. There is less power for Putin. This is his last shot. War makes oil cost more. The Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor when we wouldn't sell them oil. The Germans ran out of fuel. This gamble Putin is making. Will just make The EZ tired of paying more for petro. The EZ needs another source of dependable power (like sunshine) . So will others around the world. It will force the future a little faster. EV will come faster to the world. At the cost of Ukrainian blood. Putin and other Kingdoms will have less money to create havoc in the world. This may end up good in the long run. Now all we need is someone from MIT. To invent a battery made of silica, or some other bountiful element. If not, the ones with rare elements for batteries may take their place. Putin sees the hand writing on the wall. He is losing the energy foothold. This is his last shot. Because when his energy dynasty ends. His people will come for him. The people will instal new management.

We can chalk most major (not all) wars in the past 75 years. Was based on energy in one way or another. Every country has some sunshine. Oil will always be needed, even to make the solar panels, or windmills. But it can be re-used. Once people realize the true cost of oil may be 10k a barrel (include war). They may be more willing to take another route. Once you take away Putin's energy chargecard. Its harder for him to make war. It will be a good day when Putin is playing golf with Gaddafi.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,775
  • Feb 22, 2022 9:12am Feb 22, 2022 9:12am
Havoc in Ukraine...
Inserted Video
I am who I am
  • #95,776
  • Feb 22, 2022 11:46am Feb 22, 2022 11:46am
Quoting gatorinla
1327/28 area may bounce some. with some 1315/24 possible support.
it should reach 1339/45. But it may go to 1387/91. If it can manage to get above 1369.9. possible chance to jump on again 1328/30.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,777
  • Feb 22, 2022 12:10pm Feb 22, 2022 12:10pm
Quoting gatorinla
1327/28 area may bounce some. with some 1315/24 possible support.
my stops to 1330.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,778
  • Feb 22, 2022 12:24pm Feb 22, 2022 12:24pm
Russian lawmakers authorize Putin to use military force outside the country,

Quoting gatorinla
{quote} my stops to 1330.
hit stops. Drop odds increased some with Russian lawmaker news.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,779
  • Feb 22, 2022 12:54pm Feb 22, 2022 12:54pm
Germany halts pipeline approval.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,780
  • Feb 22, 2022 12:58pm Feb 22, 2022 12:58pm
Quoting gatorinla
Germany halts pipeline approval.
https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...on-2022-02-22/
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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