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Best Bollinger bands trading strategies

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USDJPY Consolidating around 115
The US dollar shows mixed dynamics against the Japanese yen in Asian trading, consolidating near the psychological level of 115.00.

Last week, the US currency showed a moderate decline, but the situation remained ambiguous, and traders unsuccessfully tried to assess the risks of deterioration in the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe. After some improvement, the situation on the borders of Ukraine becomes tense again, which led to a surge in demand for safe assets. So far, the parties adhere exclusively to diplomatic lines of solving the problem; however, the media are full of various negative scenarios.

On Monday, pressure on the yen is also exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in February showed a steady decline, which turned out to be worse than the average forecasts. Today is a public holiday in the US, so business activity statistics will only start appearing on Tuesday.

Support and resistance
On the D1 chart Bollinger Bands are trying to reverse horisontally. The price range is narrowing, pointing at the ambiguous nature of trading in the short term. MACD is going down preserving a moderate sell signal. Stochastic keeps a confident downward direction but is already approaching its lows, which indicates the risks of oversold USD in the ultra-short term.

Existing short positions should be kept until technical indicators are clarified.

Resistance levels: 115.28, 115.67, 116, 116.34.
Support levels: 115, 114.5, 114, 113.5.



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Gold renews all-time highs

During the Asian session, gold prices are falling, retreating from record highs to consolidate below the psychological level of 1900 under the influence of technical reasons. The news background provides significant support to the instrument, as the crisis around Ukraine occupies a significant place on the current agenda again.

An additional factor in strengthening the asset is inflationary pressure in the world's largest economies. First of all, investors are concerned about the sharp rise in prices in the US, where consumer inflation rates are kept near 40-year highs. Analysts and economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. released a renewed forecast, according to which the US Federal Reserve may raise the rate nine times in a row, thus bringing it to 2.50% by mid-2023.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands steadily grow. The price range expands but not as fast as the "bullish" sentiment develops. MACD grows, maintaining a fairly strong buy signal. Stochastic approached its highs and reversed into a horizontal plane, indicating that the instrument may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

It is better to wait for the clarification of signals from the technical indicators to open new trading positions.

Resistance levels: 1900, 1908, 1916.
Support levels: 1886, 1879, 1868, 1860.



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USDCHF, the US dollar remains under pressure
The US dollar shows a moderate decline against the Swiss franc during the Asian session, again testing 0.92 for a breakdown. USDCHF is close to its local lows of February 3, updated last Thursday.

American markets are closed today on the occasion of the President's Day, but investors are still taking a lead from moderately optimistic signals from last Friday. Statistics from the US pointed to an increase in Existing Home Sales. Meanwhile, statistics from Switzerland are somewhat more restrained. At the end of last week, data appeared indicating a slowdown in industrial production in Q4 2021.

The instrument's quotes are under pressure from the threat of a military conflict on the borders of Ukraine. It is worth noting that the authorities are trying to resolve the situation through diplomacy. Representatives of the US State Department announced on Thursday that they had sent a letter to the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergei Lavrov, with a proposal to hold a face-to-face meeting in Europe "to resolve the crisis without conflict".

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is narrowing from below, pointing at the multidirectional nature of trading in the short/middle term. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal. The indicator is trying to consolidate below the zero level. Stochastic keeps a confident downward direction but is approaching its lows, which indicates the risks of oversold USD in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.922, 0.925, 0.9276, 0.93.
Support levels: 0.9175, 0.9157, 0.9125, 0.91.



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NZDUSD, an upward correction in the asset is intensifying

The NZD/USD pair corrects within an uptrend, trading near the level of 0.6717.
Today it became known that the renewed version of the free trade agreement with China will finally enter into force on April 7, 2022. Also to the main points, the new document pays great attention to the regulation in e-commerce and environmental protection. This Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold its regular meeting on monetary policy, and until this date, serious fluctuations in the national currency are not expected.

The USD Index is moving without pronounced dynamics around the level of 96. The situation in the US economy remains extremely uncertain, and the fact that the budget for 2022 has not yet been adopted speaks volumes. Yesterday, US President Joe Biden signed another project on temporary funding of the federal government until March 11, but the likelihood that the budget will be adopted before that time is small. As for macroeconomic statistics, the January report on sales in the secondary housing market surprised investors. Net sales rose for December, and the sales index was 6.7%, with an expected decline of 1.0%.

Support and resistance
The asset moves within the global downtrend, correcting upwards within the local wave. Technical indicators maintain a weakening global sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms upward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6742, 0.686.
Support levels: 0.6679, 0.659.


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Nasdaq 100, correction in the bond market puts pressure on the index.
At the moment, the Nasdaq 100 quotes are showing a downtrend against the background of the ongoing correction in the bond market, trading at around 14000.

The day before, analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in their 2022 forecasts, announced a projected possible 10% drop in revenue for the financial markets division in Q1. According to the company, the geopolitical pressure on financial markets is now so great that the risks far exceed the possible income.

The downward correction in the US bond market also continues. The yield on 10-year Treasuries has declined since Thursday, and the downtrend continues. Conservative 20-year bonds are also declining rapidly.

Support and resistance
Index quotes are traded as part of a correction to the global uptrend, declining as part of a local wave. Technical indicators are in a quite strong sell signal state: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator is wide enough and the AO oscillator histogram, trading in the sales area, is actively forming descending bars.

Support levels: 13800, 13000.
Resistance levels: 14430, 15150.

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GBPUSD market insight by Solid ECN Securities

The pound is consolidating near 1.36.
The British pound is trading ambiguously against the US dollar during today's morning session, consolidating near 1.36. Despite the fact that the British currency has been trying to renew local highs since the end of January, the further growth of the instrument was limited by the aggravation of the geopolitical situation around Ukraine.

The day before, the President of Russia signed a decree recognizing the independence of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and the Lugansk People's Republic (LPR), and also instructed the Ministry of Defense to ensure the safety of citizens in these territories. The vast majority of Western countries have already spoken out condemning these actions, and the head of the White House, Joe Biden, signed a decree imposing new sanctions against Russia.

At the same time, the UK macroeconomic report released the day before provided significant support to the pound. Markit Manufacturing PMI in February remained at the same level, while analysts expected it to decline. Markit Services PMI in February strengthened ahead of its forecasts.

Support and resistance
In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is changing slightly, but remains rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD indicator is trying to reverse into the descending plane, keeping the previous buy signal. Stochastic, having approached the level of "80" is also inclined to reverse downwards, indicating the possibility of a corrective downtrend in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.36, 1.365, 1.37, 1.375.
Support levels: 1.355, 1.3500, 1.3460, 1.3435.



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USDCAD is holding at local highs
During the Asian session, the USDCAD pair shows flat trading dynamics, consolidating near local highs of February 15. Investor activity remains subdued as US markets were closed on Monday for President's Day. At the same time, the news background was quite rich in various publications, and the focus of the market was the aggravation of the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe. The optimistic sentiments of the traders were leveled after the official Kremlin stated that a meeting of the Russian and US presidents on the Ukrainian crisis was not yet planned. Earlier, the Russian leader announced the recognition of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics.

In turn, the pressure on the Canadian dollar remains after the publication of rather poor statistics last Friday. Thus, the volume of retail sales for December fell sharply by 1.8%. The focus of investors on Tuesday is a block of data from the US on business activity in February, while Canada will publish a report on ADP jobs for January.

Support and resistance
Bollinger bands on the daily chart are growing slightly: the price range expands from above, letting the "bulls" renew local highs. MACD shows an uncertain growth and keeps a very poor buy signal. Stochastic moves more confidently but reflects that USD may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.2786, 1.2812, 1.285, 1.29.
Support levels: 1.275, 1.27, 1.265, 1.26.


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ETHUSD
Geopolitical tensions are a catalyst for price decline

This week, the ETHUSD pair continued to decline and is currently close to the 2500 mark. The cryptocurrency market as a whole is suffering losses amid the aggravation of the geopolitical situation around Ukraine.

Digital asset prices have gone down following the stock market, with which they have been actively correlating recently. This fact casts doubt on the claims of a number of experts about the possibility of using cryptocurrencies as "safe haven assets". Currently, investors prefer to go into more traditional gold, the quotes of which add value. The current situation signals that the current level of adoption of digital tools by business is not yet sufficient.

In general, the cryptocurrency sector has been declining since November last year, as bidders assume the beginning of a new period of "crypto-winter". In this regard, the comments of the co-founder of Ethereum Vitalik Buterin are interesting, he believes that in the end, a prolonged drop in prices can have a positive impact on digital assets. In a recent interview with Bloomberg, he said that the "bearish" trend in the market allows you to get rid of weak projects, and also reduces the volume of short-term speculative trading.

Support and resistance
The price has reached the lower limit of the Murray trading range at around 2500, the breakdown of which will give the prospect of further decline to the levels of 2187.5 and 1875.

Technical indicators generally demonstrate the continuation of the downward trend: the Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are reversing down, and the MACD histogram is increasing in the negative zone. Stochastic's entry into the oversold zone does not exclude an upward correction up to the level of 2930, but it is unlikely that it will lead to a trend change.

Resistance levels: 2930, 3125, 3300.
Support levels: 2500, 2187, 1875.



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S&P 500, component reporting forecasts pull the index down
The S&P 500 index is correcting down amid a significant decline in the bond market, trading at around 4288. 10-year US Treasuries shed 3.48%, falling from 1.927% to 1.863%, while 20-year conservative bonds fell 2.76%, from 2.268% to 2.246%.

Support and resistance
Index quotes are traded in a local downtrend, which might become a global one. Technical indicators are still in the state of an active sell signal: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator is expanding towards the decline, and the AO oscillator histogram is trading in the negative area forming new descending bars.

Support levels: 4215, 4000
Resistance levels: 4375, 4590


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Crude Oil shows strong growth

During the Asian session, WTI Crude Oil prices show a downward trend, consolidating near $93 per barrel. The current decline of the instrument is due to technical factors, while the fundamental picture is generally quite optimistic and provides additional support to quotes.

Quotes are supported by the fact that the dynamics of oil supply growth continue to lag behind aggregate demand against the backdrop of a rather conservative position of OPEC+. The cartel refuses to accelerate production growth, preferring to act according to a previously defined plan. In particular, in February, the alliance increased production quotas by 400K barrels per day. Meanwhile, several participating countries (for example, Venezuela and Iraq) cannot increase production to the permitted level due to insufficient funding for the industry and technical problems with increasing oil production.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands steadily grow. The price range expands but not as fast as the "bullish" sentiment develops. MACD reverses upwards, forming a new buy signal. Stochastic is more straightforward but is rapidly approaching its highs, indicating that the instrument may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 93.97, 95, 96.
Support levels: 91.73, 90, 89, 88.


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EURUSD, trades without pronounced dynamics
Due to the multidirectional macroeconomic statistics, the EURUSD pair is correcting within a sideways trend around 1.1299.

According to preliminary data, EU Manufacturing PMI fell to 58.4 points for January. Services PMI, on the contrary, increased to 55.8 points. German Manufacturing PMI fell to 58.5 points, and German Service PMI rose from 52.2 to 59.6 points.

On Wednesday, investors are waiting for the publication of inflation in the EU, after which traders will get a complete picture of the state of the economy at the beginning of the year to determine the possible direction of investment.

The USD Index reached the local resistance around 96. Although the geopolitical component currently determines the dynamics of the asset's movement, the macroeconomic background also affects the instrument. Tomorrow, the PMI data for February will be released, and, according to analysts' forecasts, the Manufacturing PMI may rise to 56 points from 55.5 points earlier, and the Service PMI – up to 53.0 from 51. 2.

Support and resistance
The asset moves within a wide sideways range, transforming into an Expanding formation pattern. Technical indicators are in a state of uncertainty: indicator Alligator's EMA fluctuations range narrowed almost completely, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars, moving into the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.1374, 1.148.
Support levels: 1.123, 1.112.


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AUDUSD, Australian economy received a new impetus to growth
Amid the stabilization of the US currency, the AUDUSD pair is correcting within an uptrend, trading around 0.72.

Yesterday, the Australian authorities announced opening borders for citizens and tourists staying in the country. Now people with a vaccination certificate have the opportunity to visit the country. It was a major step in the revival of the tourism sector, which is losing almost 3B US dollars annually and has declined for more than two years since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.

Also, the "bulls" received an impulse to increase after the publication on Monday of optimistic macroeconomic statistics from Australia:
The index of activity in the manufacturing sector for February increased to 57.6 points. In general, the country's economy continues to recover, and with the opening of borders, the demand for the national currency of Australia will only increase. Additional support for quotes is provided by the growth of commodity markets and a decrease in demand for risky assets against the backdrop of a worsening geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe.

The index of the American currency reacts weakly to any incoming information, trading near the level of 96, which it reached amid geopolitical tensions. As for macroeconomic data, tomorrow's data on business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors could provide local support for the US dollar, but the expected publication of the February consumer confidence index from the Conference Board, which, according to analysts, may fall to 110 points from 113.8 points for January, most likely, will not allow the dollar to strengthen significantly.

Support and resistance
On the global chart, the price moves within a wide channel. Technical indicators are in the state of a poor signal to buy: indicator Alligator's EMA fluctuations range expands upwards, and the AO histogram moved into the zone of purchases.

Resistance levels: 0.7283, 0.7457.
Support levels: 0.7100, 0.6990.


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Crude Oil, the uptrend is possible
Prices for "black gold" continue to grow rapidly against the backdrop of the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe. The day before, Brent Crude Oil quotes rose above 96.50, but by the end of the session corrected to 93.75.

In general, the situation on the market remains tense.
Investors fear interruptions in the supply of Russian oil and gas to the market in the event of active hostilities on the borders with Ukraine, which is intensified due to the actions of the German authorities, who suspended the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline the day before.

Experts believe that Russia will continue to fulfill its obligations under gas contracts, but will not increase the volume of supplies if necessary, not wanting to increase transportation through Ukrainian territory.

The prerequisites for further growth in energy prices on the market remain, although the increase in quotations is somewhat restrained by the possibility of concluding an American-Iranian "nuclear deal". In this case, Iran will be able to bring additional volumes of cheaper oil to the market, but in the current situation, even they are unlikely to be able to fully meet the growing demand.

Support and resistance
The price continues to be in an uptrend, the target of which may be at 100. The key level for the "bears" seems to be at 91 (the center line of Bollinger Bands), the breakdown of which will give the prospect of a corrective decline to 87.5.

However, this variant of the movement seems less likely, since the technical indicators indicate continued uptrend:
Bollinger Bands and Stochastic reverse upwards, and MACD is stable in the positive zone.

Resistance levels: 95, 100, 106.25.
Support levels: 91, 87.5, 81.25.


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GBPUSD is in a state of uncertainty
Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair corrected downwards and tested the level of 1.3550.

GBP is under pressure as investors fear the imposition of mutual economic sanctions and interruptions in the supply of energy to European countries after the leadership of the Russian Federation recognized the independence of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics.

At the moment, the market has stabilized, as the sanctions against the Russian economy were moderate. The US implied a ban on trade and investment in business on the territory of the new republics introduced measures against the State Development Corporation VEB.RF and Promsvyazbank, as well as several Russian officials.

Five more Russian banks and some officials fell under the UK restrictions. For now, restrictive measures look symbolic, which does not allow the price to drop significantly. However, after a deterioration in the geopolitical situation, their list can be significantly expanded. In this case, Russia may limit the supply of oil, gas, wheat, palladium, nickel, and other metals to the market, adversely affecting European and American production.

Experts fear that global regulators may postpone the tightening of monetary policy in the face of uncertainty. The situation will continue to be quite tense, and cautious investors will diversify their portfolios.

Support and resistance
The key "bearish" level is 1.355. Its and the middle line of Bollinger bands breakdown allows a decline to 1.3427 and 1.3366. The breakout of 1.361 will provide growth towards 1.374.

The indicators do not give a single signal:
Bollinger bands reverse upwards, Stochastic reverses downwards, and MACD is stable in the positive zone.

Resistance levels: 1.361, 1.3772, 1.374.
Support levels: 1.355, 1.3427, 1.3366.


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Investors increase positions in gold

Gold quotes continue to be traded at increased volumes and are kept in the area of annual highs, at the second most important psychological level of $1900.

The positive dynamics is facilitated by the acceleration of inflation rates in the world and increased geopolitical risks, since the news background regarding the crisis on the borders of Ukraine again occupies a significant place on the current agenda. In the context of global price pressure and the imminent increase in rates by central banks, investors are buying the precious metal as a defensive asset, withdrawing their capital from risky instruments such as stocks and currencies.

The current dynamics also have a local reason.
The Federal Office for Customs and Border Security of Switzerland published a report on the import and export of gold in January 2022, according to which the total export volume of the precious metal from the country amounted to 115.74 tons, which is 20% higher than in December last year, and 43% higher than in January 2021.

Asian buyers account for more than 100 tons:
China ranked first in terms of exports, importing 70 tons of gold; another 11.6 tons were bought by India, and 8 tons were bought by Singapore. The total amount of exports of the precious metal for the month exceeded 6.22B Swiss francs. In turn, the volume of imports to Switzerland also increased to 6.51B Swiss francs, which is significantly higher than in December.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the price reached the level of the global high of June 2021 and is now trying to consolidate at this level.

Technical indicators maintain a steady buy signal:
the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading in the buy zone, forming new ascending bars.

Support levels: 1878, 1810.
Resistance levels: 1914, 1950.

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USDCAD
American currency took the lead in the pair

Due to ongoing mass protests by Canadian truckers opposing anti-coronavirus measures, the USDCAD pair shows local sideways dynamics and is around 1.2747.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that a state of emergency had been introduced in the Canadian capital of Ottawa to contain protests against sanitary measures that have been going on for almost three weeks and stabilize the situation in the country as a whole until at least mid-March. It means that supply disruptions could seriously slow down a strong economic recovery in Canada. As for macroeconomic statistics, no important publications are expected this week, and the national currency is likely to continue to weaken slightly.

Since the beginning of the week, the USD Index has not left the narrow sideways range around 96. Yesterday the US dollar was slightly supported by data on business activity indices. Services PMI for February rose, and Manufacturing PMI amounted to 57.5 points, significantly higher than the January. The data from the Conference Board also was positive. The consumer confidence index fixed at 110.5 points, slightly better than the forecasted.

Support and resistance
On the global chart, the price tries to break the resistance line of the local Triangle pattern.

Technical indicators are in a buy signal:
Indicator Alligator’s EMA fluctuations range expands towards growth, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms rising bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 1.2788, 1.2938.
Support levels: 1.2697, 1.252.



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