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Trend Cycle Entry

  • #181
  • Feb 19, 2022 4:10pm Feb 19, 2022 4:10pm
Am I looking at an early set up? AU is setting sail for a trip to the south on the Daily.
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  • #182
  • Feb 19, 2022 4:54pm Feb 19, 2022 4:54pm
Quoting BlackNapkins
{quote} Sorry, shown example is not a WD setup
Can you explain why it's not?
  • #183
  • Feb 19, 2022 9:38pm Feb 19, 2022 9:38pm
Quoting BataviaTrade
Am I looking at an early set up? AU is setting sail for a trip to the south on the Daily. {image}
If you're looking for 30 to 40 pips.....Yes
I think I will let it play out for the moment.
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  • #184
  • Edited Feb 20, 2022 8:11am Feb 19, 2022 11:50pm | Edited Feb 20, 2022 8:11am
I just subscribed to your page. I find your system very interesting and simple. I'm looking at this setup for NEOUSD. Daily emas crossed bullishly and now I'm waiting for price to touch lower bands on H4 for entry if all confirmations are met. Does anyone else see this setup playing out nicely??
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  • #185
  • Feb 20, 2022 12:09am Feb 20, 2022 12:09am
Quoting clayton89
{quote} Can you explain why it's not?
It was a valid signal!
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  • #186
  • Feb 20, 2022 2:58am Feb 20, 2022 2:58am
Quoting BlackNapkins
{quote} Clayton, WD setup is a classical reversal described years ago in TA, It is structure we are looking for which looks like this. {image} BB, STOCHRSI and HA are tools to spot it… BB and StochRSI help get point B … HA confirms configuration and start to price to move in direction C. This is a continuation after first pullback(cycle how call it WD) Your arrow do not confirm even one condition… We have before “your entry point_ downtrend so WE ARE LOOKING for SELL Signal… WD do not play reversals, he play conformation of change trend direction…...
I'm just trying to stick to the rules that WD uses and making entries as mechanical as possible. At the point of the entry the MA's were giving a buy signal. So how it be a sell trade?

Well if you read his rules for a trade then you would see that my arrow does confirm all the conditions. Hence why I'm asking whether he would of took the trade or if there was something that would of prevented him from doing so?
  • #187
  • Feb 20, 2022 7:54am Feb 20, 2022 7:54am
Quoting BlackNapkins
Clayton. Basic rule which was not fulfilled was this marked on screen... {image} One of the rules say certain distance between MA's has to be present... pullback or cycle, how WD name it, is far to low... We have almost crossing of MA's Look we have 14 days permanent downtrend, In this moment both MA's are showing trend direction and your entry suggest trading against it ... BTW when you switch to H4 you will see nice entry for Sell. This kind of structure must happen to trying go long {image} This how I see it... Best Regards
The MA's haven't crossed at the time of the entry. The cross happens after (hindsight)

The trend is actually up. (To the left has made higher highs & higher lows)

So sticking to the rules this would of been a buy signal. I'm just curious to see what WD thinks, that's all. I'm not here looking for a debate.
  • #188
  • Feb 20, 2022 8:52am Feb 20, 2022 8:52am
Quoting THA58
{quote} If you're looking for 30 to 40 pips.....Yes I think I will let it play out for the moment. {image}
Thanks Tha, I will wait for the Monday close to see how it develops.

Best regards
BT
  • #189
  • Feb 20, 2022 9:41am Feb 20, 2022 9:41am
Quoting clayton89
{quote} That's because I'm asking if it would of been a buy, not a sell. MA's at the time of candles were still a buy, had touched and disengaged bottom of BB, stochrsi moving up from below 20 zone and the HA candles had changed to a buy also. Ticked all the boxes for a buy which is why I'm curious whether he would of took the trade or not.
For a Buy set up, I would say that the MA's are getting ready to cross down, so even though it might be a valid set up, its not the greatest. Everyone has certain rules of there own, like for example WD does not carry any trades over the weekend.

I have 2 rules of my own as per say, number one is that I ignore any Doji or really small candles, in this case (on your chart) the HA change of color candle was almost a Doji. Rule number two is that I dont always open trades on the first candle of the week, unless its a really strong continuation candle in a down or up trend like the Sept 1 candle. I find that most of the time the Monday candles are very weak with no direction.
  • #190
  • Feb 20, 2022 1:40pm Feb 20, 2022 1:40pm
Quoting BataviaTrade
I'm looking at an early set up? AU is setting sail for a trip to the south on the Daily. {image}
I think this is a good setup. I'm analyzing AU and the overall trend is down on D1 and weekly bearish ema crossing.
  • #191
  • Feb 20, 2022 3:53pm Feb 20, 2022 3:53pm
Quoting WickedDaddy
{quote} True, My daily TF trades are few, but I hold them for their extended trends and often add to them as they retrace during the trend. I only trade 3 pairs: EU, AU, and UJ. I choose these based on their direction. When USD is strong, I short EU and long UJ. When dollar is weak, I long AU. This is to take advantage of the carry. Why not get paid to hold a trade open? Ha ha. These are the trades that pay big and I have large sums invested. They are the core of my income. I think it better to focus expertise on as few things as possible. That...

So nice and encouraging to know you have been living off trading (FX) since 2014.
Do you trade other methods or just the one outlined here?
Appreciate.
  • #192
  • Edited 9:11am Feb 21, 2022 8:59am | Edited 9:11am
Entered a long position on AJ.
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  • #193
  • Feb 21, 2022 4:01pm Feb 21, 2022 4:01pm
Quoting clayton89
Do you reckon this could of been a potential losing trade WD? I know you said AUDUSD was one of your main trading pairs so thought you might have an opinion on this setup. Just wondering if there was anything that would of made you avoid taking this? {image}
I remember watching that trade. I didn't take it. The 15 EMA is almost intersecting the 50 SMA - too close for my taste and a cross negates the trade. In this example, the 15 EMA is sharply headed for that cross as well. Remember, while not an absolute rule, good separation is a strong bonus. Sometimes the 15 EMA gets close to the 50 SMA but begins to curve to flat or away due to some consolidation. Those conditions strengthen the probability of a profitable trade, even though the 15 EMA may be closer to the 50 SMA than would be otherwise comfortable.

That Gold trade you pointed out in your previous post resembles those properties.
  • #194
  • Feb 21, 2022 4:11pm Feb 21, 2022 4:11pm
Quoting drsun
{quote} I know that you use Heiken Ashi candle (HA). But Bar Replay is not available for this chart type.
Yes, that is true. Manual scrolling is the alternative. I've also used replay with standard candles while making judgment calls against a matching chart with HA that I am manually scrolling in unison. It's tedious but worth the effort.
  • #195
  • Feb 21, 2022 4:14pm Feb 21, 2022 4:14pm
Quoting BataviaTrade
Am I looking at an early set up? AU is setting sail for a trip to the south on the Daily. {image}
It is setting up but remember to wait for a red HA candle to close and then review the conditional rules at that time. Will the 15 EMA cross the 50 SMA upward at that point? Will the 15 EMA begin to round down and what will the StochasticRSI be doing at that point?

Patience...
  • #196
  • Feb 21, 2022 4:16pm Feb 21, 2022 4:16pm
Quoting LeroyPastran
I just subscribed to your page. I find your system very interesting and simple. I'm looking at this setup for NEOUSD. Daily emas crossed bullishly and now I'm waiting for price to touch lower bands on H4 for entry if all confirmations are met. Does anyone else see this setup playing out nicely?? {image} {image} {image}
I don't trade crypto so I can't comment on the validity of this system in regards to crypto.
  • #197
  • Feb 21, 2022 4:22pm Feb 21, 2022 4:22pm
Quoting LeroyPastran
Entered a long position on AJ. {image} {image}
Your chart looks very different than mine - This is AJ daily and according to my chart, is not a trade.
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  • #198
  • Feb 21, 2022 5:01pm Feb 21, 2022 5:01pm
Quoting Hazeem
{quote} Hello WD, my observation is regarding your entry from the stochasticRSI emanating from the oversold region with all conditions satisfied for a buy trade. The "entry point" seems to be the Second cycle of the stochRsi which negates your rule. I see the entry as BB entry( bounced as explained) in unison with the second cycle cos the 1st cycle was half completed before going to the oversold region for the next one you chose as your point of entry. Pls clarify, thanks.
Someone is paying attention! Ha! Well done. I will explain:

A "cycle" is a retrace in which the StochasticRSI travels fully to the opposite extreme. So yes, it appears the first cycle had already occurred. Here's the catch: The Stochastic cycle had not ended AND the candles had not intersected with the BB. At the point the candles did intersect the BB, the StochasticRSI had returned to below 20% without cycling upward to 80% or even midway to 50%. Anything below (for longs) or above (for shorts) is not a completed cycle. So in this case, the first cycle was still in play.

Here is another trade from my "library" of perfect trades. I compare pending set-ups to these to confirm my decision to enter. This one (below) is EURUSD on January 12, 2022 at 0700 Central US Time on a 1 HR chart. It's a beautiful trade.
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  • #199
  • Edited 6:05pm Feb 21, 2022 5:50pm | Edited 6:05pm
Hi WickedDaddy,

I was backtesting the previous signals. Is there anything we could do to prevent those losses?


Trade #01
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Trade #02
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Trade #03
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Trade #04
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Trade #05
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Trade #06
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Trade #07
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Trade #08
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Trade #09
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Trade #10
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Thank you.
  • #200
  • Feb 21, 2022 7:23pm Feb 21, 2022 7:23pm
Quoting TheZenienss
Hi WickedDaddy, I was backtesting the previous signals. Is there anything we could do to prevent those losses?
First, I notice you are trading a 1 HR chart. My 1 HR chart includes a 100 and 200 SMA for trend reference. Your chart is missing that and I notice that a few of your proposed trades are against the trend (comparing them to my chart). I only trade in the direction of overall trend. I explain that somewhere in this thread specifically regarding trading short timeframes, like 1 HR and 4 HR charts.

Most of your proposed trades are on the 2nd or 3rd StochasticRSI cycle. Yes, they touch the BB, but on the 2nd or 3rd cycle. Rule is BB engagement/disengagement on the 1st cycle. Otherwise, no trade.

Trade 4 looks tempting for bending the rule (it's on the 2nd cycle). All things considered I may have entered that trade. But I am asleep at 0500 (my time) and so I missed it.
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