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Guppy's Multi-Moving Average (GMMA)

  • #381
  • Feb 11, 2022 1:10pm Feb 11, 2022 1:10pm
Quoting kd1
Morning Guppy Traders, Entered Short on EURJPY as the Candle Closed below Channel & LT & ST are changing direction too... let's See {image}
Patience Paid off, Hit TP and dropping like falling Knife
Regret is Brutal
  • #382
  • Feb 11, 2022 9:08pm Feb 11, 2022 9:08pm
hi guys,
for me it is simple.
1) enter trade by identifying a single breakout candle as per rules with 2 lots.
2) always keep stoploss at opp 10 ema channel for both the lots. so my risk is defined.
3) book one lot at TP 1 or R:R= 1
4) shift SL of remaining lot to BE. and target to TP 2.

try to catch the momentum of the trade to book profits.
anytime durig the trade if the momentum is not strong exit trade with minimum profit/loss.
  • #383
  • Feb 12, 2022 7:28am Feb 12, 2022 7:28am
Quoting walvekarraje
hi guys, for me it is simple. 1) enter trade by identifying a single breakout candle as per rules with 2 lots. 2) always keep stoploss at opp 10 ema channel for both the lots. so my risk is defined. 3) book one lot at TP 1 or R:R= 1 4) shift SL of remaining lot to BE. and target to TP 2. try to catch the momentum of the trade to book profits. anytime during the trade if the momentum is not strong exit trade with minimum profit/loss.
It is simple but, for me at least, it isn't. The devil is in the detail. The problem sits between my ears

I have reviewed my trades of last week and identified some of my mistakes. To help that process I replicated the daily EMA 30 and 60 lines onto the H4 chart. It's easy to do - there are 6 H4 periods in a day, so multiply EMA 30 by 6 (= EMA 180 on H4), likewise EMA 60 by 6 (= EMA 360 on H4) and you get replicas of the daily lines. Now I can view the daily trend without leaving the H4 chart. It's especially useful when the daily lines are mixed in with the H4 lines. Then things really are going sideways. Or if, for example, the daily lines are trending downwards, it's probably not helpful to buy an otherwise good bullish setup on H4.

I made mostly basic mistakes like trading while the MAs were flat and too close to each other. I also realised that the changing colours, amazing as they are, misled me into ignoring basic price action.

In one case I had a perfect new trend/pullback/breakout scenario. BUT, that entire "new trend" on H4 was just a pullback on the daily and it reversed at the daily LT EMAs not long after I entered.

Onward and upward!
  • #384
  • Feb 13, 2022 12:57pm Feb 13, 2022 12:57pm
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} It is simple but, for me at least, it isn't. The devil is in the detail. The problem sits between my ears I have reviewed my trades of last week and identified some of my mistakes. To help that process I replicated the daily EMA 30 and 60 lines onto the H4 chart. It's easy to do - there are 6 H4 periods in a day, so multiply EMA 30 by 6 (= EMA 180 on H4), likewise EMA 60 by 6 (= EMA 360 on H4) and you get replicas of the daily lines. Now I can view the daily trend without leaving the H4 chart. It's especially...

use this. more accurate
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Ma in color (mtf).mq4   11 KB | 362 downloads
  • #385
  • Feb 13, 2022 1:04pm Feb 13, 2022 1:04pm
you are not trading a instrument.
you are trading a instrument in a pirticular time frame.
any instrument will show diffrent trends in diffrent timeframes.

all mtf indicators will repaint/recalculate till that timeframe is over. more possibality of false signals. so i dont use any repainting/recalculating indicators
  • #386
  • Feb 14, 2022 1:08am Feb 14, 2022 1:08am
Quoting walvekarraje
you are not trading a instrument. you are trading a instrument in a pirticular time frame. any instrument will show diffrent trends in diffrent timeframes. all mtf indicators will repaint/recalculate till that timeframe is over. more possibality of false signals. so i dont use any repainting/recalculating indicators
Absolutoly agreed, we are not trading a Pair we are trading timeframe...
Regret is Brutal
  • #387
  • Feb 14, 2022 3:47am Feb 14, 2022 3:47am
NZDJPY doing good so far..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 37 KB
Regret is Brutal
  • #388
  • Feb 14, 2022 3:52am Feb 14, 2022 3:52am
Quoting walvekarraje
{quote} use this. more accurate {file}
I installed this on one of my charts and when set to 10 EMA it perfectly matches the 10 EMA channel, whether the "interpolate in HTF mode" option is set to true or false - that bit seemed to make no difference. What did you have in mind with this?
  • #389
  • Feb 14, 2022 3:59am Feb 14, 2022 3:59am
Quoting kd1
NZDJPY doing good so far.. {image}
Good luck, hope it runs far.

I see you got in early at the beginning of a possible new trend. There's possibly a pullback and a breakout still to come.
  • #390
  • Feb 14, 2022 4:09am Feb 14, 2022 4:09am
eurgbp short
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 164 KB
  • #391
  • Feb 14, 2022 4:28am Feb 14, 2022 4:28am
Quoting oohoo
eurgbp short {image}
Nice one. I looked at this earlier today and was tempted, but gave it a miss because it is only about 90 pips away from a long-term support level. This might make no difference on H1, but all traders around the world can see the same thing, so it's possible that price might slow down.

This is the monthly chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp mn1.png Size: 37 KB
  • #392
  • Feb 14, 2022 8:18am Feb 14, 2022 8:18am
There are several currency pairs that show tight and flat lines (more obvious with the daily lines added in). A good example is CADCHF (H4) I have zoomed out to show the chart pattern. Anyone have an idea which way this will break according to chart pattern theory?

Anyway, I'm watching them because eventually a breakout should happen.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadchf h4.png Size: 50 KB
  • #393
  • Feb 14, 2022 8:30am Feb 14, 2022 8:30am
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} I installed this on one of my charts and when set to 10 EMA it perfectly matches the 10 EMA channel, whether the "interpolate in HTF mode" option is set to true or false - that bit seemed to make no difference. What did you have in mind with this?
" option is set to true " ..... smooth lines
" option is set to false "...... stepladder kind of display.
set this option to true (default)
  • #394
  • Feb 15, 2022 1:23am Feb 15, 2022 1:23am
First, thank you, Spudfan, for heads up on CADJPY on Friday. I entered on the 2h, EMA colour change, right before the spike (there was dump later, but it didn't matter). Had I waited for 4h, I would have failed.
Second, can you guys reiterate whether colour change entry is a method in itself? By the looks of it, it gives earlier entries, but not as reliable as EMA-channel exit method.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 164 KB
  • #395
  • Feb 15, 2022 3:08am Feb 15, 2022 3:08am
Is anyone monitoring any pairs, stocks, other assets?
I'm keeping an eye on these
eurchf - 2h
eurgbp - 1h 2h
eurusd - 3h
gbpnzd (??) - 90m

Is this one worthy of being watched or too messy?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 258 KB
  • #396
  • Edited 5:58am Feb 15, 2022 5:28am | Edited 5:58am
Quoting oohoo
First, thank you, Spudfan, for heads up on CADJPY on Friday. I entered on the 2h, EMA colour change, right before the spike (there was dump later, but it didn't matter). Had I waited for 4h, I would have failed. Second, can you guys reiterate whether colour change entry is a method in itself? By the looks of it, it gives earlier entries, but not as reliable as EMA-channel exit method. {image}
As long as you made some pips on it!

In my opinion the colour change approach is an entry method in its own right, but, as you point out, it looks like it will give plenty of false signals. You want to get in early, you pay for it! But if you can support it with other price action filters, for example ensuring that you are trading with the higher time-frame trend then it might be a great strategy. The problem when so many pairs are going sideways is that we will get many more false colour-change signals.

EDIT: I've been thinking about this - perhaps to overcome the persuasiveness of the colour-chaging MAs, we should set up a template with fixed-colour lines while we do our initial scanning and checking for potential trades. Once we have done that we could flip over to the colour-changing template as a further check that the colours are all lined up, in other words, a secondary, not a primary tool. Just a thought, but I know how visually I work and how those lovely colours are so seductive!
  • #397
  • Feb 15, 2022 2:16pm Feb 15, 2022 2:16pm
Quoting oohoo
Is anyone monitoring any pairs, stocks, other assets? I'm keeping an eye on these eurchf - 2h eurgbp - 1h 2h eurusd - 3h gbpnzd (??) - 90m Is this one worthy of being watched or too messy? {image}
GBPNZD only presented conditions for entry, although the setup didn't look perfect. I've been trying to get my head around what I didn't like about it, and I still can't say. Formally, conditions are OK (except the 'form' of the Guppy maybe). What would you say?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 199 KB
  • #398
  • Feb 15, 2022 11:28pm Feb 15, 2022 11:28pm
Quoting oohoo
{quote} GBPNZD only presented conditions for entry, although the setup didn't look perfect. I've been trying to get my head around what I didn't like about it, and I still can't say. Formally, conditions are OK (except the 'form' of the Guppy maybe). What would you say? {image}
Yes it is perplexing! All the "technicals" are in place (new trend, pullback to the LT group, the pullback is held by the 50% fibo level, RSIs are correct, candle breaks out of channel.

There are two price action features I can see. First is that zoomed out on H4 this pair has been trending up unbroken since 16 November last year. That is a very long trend and for that reason alone I have ignored this pair on the basis that all trends come to an end and this one's sell-by date has surely passed. Secondly, on H4 we have a lower high and lower low (now that I look for it in hindsight ).

But otherwise, I think it would be helpful to us all if walvekarraje could comment.
  • #399
  • Feb 16, 2022 1:50am Feb 16, 2022 1:50am
Not seeing good setups on FX. Maybe will try to catch GBPUSD on small TFs.
  • #400
  • Edited 3:26am Feb 16, 2022 3:10am | Edited 3:26am
Quoting oohoo
Not seeing good setups on FX. Maybe will try to catch GBPUSD on small TFs.
GBPUSD has been (very) sideways for a while, with a slight bullish bias. The price action has been above the daily 30 and 60 EMAs. So I'm beginning to wonder when this pair will break out to the upside. Are we looking at it happening now? I don't think so, everything is still too sideways. Maybe when price breaks out of the daily channel.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd h4.png Size: 37 KB
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