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S&P 500 Market insights by Solid ECN Securities

Investors are waiting for signals from the US Fed
The S&P 500 is correcting lower, trading at 4425 amid a disappointing inflation report. Consumer prices in the US rose by 7.5% in annual terms, which is a significant obstacle to the development of national business. Such a high figure cancels out almost all the profits that companies show, and in this regard, today's emergency meeting of the US Federal Reserve is seen as the only support measure.

The growth leaders in the index are Newell Brands Inc. (+11.07%), Baker Hughes Co. (+6.20%), Occidental Petroleum Corp. (+5.65%). Among the leaders of the decline are Under Armour A (-12.49%), Under Armour C (-11.37%), AMD Inc. (-10.01%).

Support and resistance
The index quotes are trading in a local downtrend, forming another wave of decline. Technical indicators are still in the state of a weak sell signal: the fluctuation range of the Alligator indicator EMAs is actively narrowing and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading in the sales area, approaching the transition level.

Support levels: 4400, 4265.
Resistance levels: 4462, 4580.


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BTCUSD market insight by Solid ECN

The decline of "digital gold" may continue
Last week, the BTCUSD pair had ambiguous dynamics. At first, the price rose above the level of 45800 but then lost the gained positions, returning to the area of 42000.

Experts associate the movement of the cryptocurrency market with the release of fundamental American statistics. The rise in prices occurred against the backdrop of positive January data on the US labor market, illustrating the recovery of the national economy, and the decline was the result of poor January data on inflation.
This week, the market decline may continue if the January US PPI rises (data will be released on Tuesday), and there is "hawkish" rhetoric in the minutes of the last meeting of the regulator (to be published on Wednesday). So far, department officials have not decided on the tactics of further actions and speak out both for and against a sharp increase in the rate, leaving investors in uncertainty.

Support and resistance
Now the price is at 42000. The consolidation below it allows a decline to 40000, 37500, 35000. The key "bullish" level is 43750. Its breakout allows growth to 46875 and 50000.

The indicators do not give a single signal: Bollinger bands are directed upwards, the MACD histogram is stable in the positive zone, Stochastic is directed downwards but is entering the oversold zone.



Resistance levels: 43750, 46875, 50000.
Support levels: 42000, 40000, 37500, 35000.

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Microsoft Corp. market insights by Solid ECN Securities

The price has set new local lows
At the end of January, Microsoft Corp. reported for Q2 2022. Revenue grew by 20%, exceeding the expectations of The Wall Street analysts. The company sees steady demand for its cloud computing and productivity software. Thus, the Azure cloud infrastructure platform increased revenue by 46%, and commercial revenue from Office 365 increased by 19%. In general, the corporation is becoming more and more profitable, expanding its activities around the world. Operating and net profit increased by 24% and 21%. Earnings per share rose 22% to 2.48 dollars, also exceeding market expectations of 2.31 dollars.

Support and resistance
There is a corrective movement in the company's shares, the instrument has set new local lows, and at the moment the quotes are consolidating. The key range is 292-317. The instrument has the potential to further correction. Indicators point out the strength of sellers: the price has fixed below MA (50) and MA (200), the MACD histogram has started to decline again. Positions are to be opened from key levels.

Comparing company's multiplier with its competitors in the industry, we can say that #MSFT shares are neutral.

Resistance levels: 306, 317, 323.5.
Support levels: 292, 281, 272.



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Crude Oil market insight

Prices renew record highs
At the beginning of the week, the quotes of "black gold" approached the level of 96.00 for the first time since October 2014, reacting to a further escalation of tension in Eastern Europe. In particular, due to the situation around Ukraine, there were concerns among traders about the export of Russian oil and the introduction of new Western sanctions.

During the day, the US will release statistics on manufacturing inflation and publish the traditional report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on stocks for February 11. The previous report showed a decrease of 2.025M barrels.

Support and resistance
Bollinger bands show steady growth on the daily chart: the price range expands from above but not as fast as the "bullish" sentiment develops. MACD grows, keeping a poor buy signal and above the signal line. Stochastic demonstrates similar dynamics, but the indicator line is close to its highs, reflecting that the instrument may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 94.5, 95.5, 96.5, 97.5.
Support levels: 93.34, 92, 91, 90.


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USDJPY market insight by Solid ECN Securities

The US dollar holds its previous positions.
The yen continues to be a shelter asset as the situation in Eastern Europe remains tense and forces investors to look for alternatives to their traditional portfolios, which have recently been characterized by high-risk demand. In turn, the US dollar is also quite attractive for market participants, given the prospects for an increase in the US Federal Reserve interest rate this year.

The macroeconomic statistics provides moderate support for the yen on Tuesday. Thus, Japan's Q4 GDP grew after a decline of 0.9% last month, although analysts expected the national economy to grow by 1.4%.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands reverse in the horizontal plane: the price range remains practically unchanged, indicating an ambiguous nature of trading in the short term. MACD falls, showing a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic keeps a confident downward trend but is rapidly approaching its lows, indicating that the dollar may become oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 115.67, 116, 116.34, 117.
Support levels: 115, 114.5, 114, 113.5.



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Gold market insight by Solid ECN Securities
Investors build up positions in gold again

Gold is trading near the three-month high due to increased demand for shelter assets. At the moment, the metal quotes have broken the level of $1,850 per ounce and are trying to consolidate above it.

The upward dynamics in the asset is the reaction of investors to the likelihood of an imminent increase in the US Federal Reserve interest rate against the backdrop of rising annual inflation, which last month rose to a record high for 40 years and amounted to 7.5%.

Traders fear that instead of the expected 0.25%, the agency will immediately increase the figure by 0.50% or even more to prevent the continuation of negative dynamics with consumer prices in the country. Experts note that this could lead to a sharp drop in the bond and stock markets, which will turn into even more problems for the regulator. The bond market is at its peak in 2019, and the yield on 10-year US Treasuries is already close to 2%, amounting to 1.960%. Investors no longer believe in the further growth of securities and opt for gold, noting that the US Federal Reserve cannot stop the emerging negative trend, and as a result, the agency will again resort to measures to stimulate the economy.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the price has left the global sideways channel and is now trying to renew the high of the last year. Technical indicators keep a buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is confidently trading in the buy zone, forming new rising bars.

Support levels: 1861, 1830.
Resistance levels: 1890, 1940.


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How to Trade using RSI indicator

How to Trade using the Bollinger bands indicator

EURUSD market insights by Solid ECN Securities

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Correction after lowering geopolitical risks.
The EURUSD pair slightly declines during the Asian session, correcting after strengthening positions yesterday, which was due to positive signals about the return of some Russian military personnel to their places of deployment after conducting exercises on the borders with Ukraine, so the risks of further escalation of political tension in the region have noticeably decreased.

Investors follow the macroeconomic statistics, which set the dynamics of the movement of the trading instrument earlier. In particular, data on employment and economic sentiment were published yesterday. Thus, the EU Q4 employment rate corrected from 1.0% to 0.5%, only 0.1% better than market expectations!

At the same time, the ZEW study recorded a milder decline in economic sentiment in the EU for February, while market forecasts suggested a sharp decline. In turn, the sentiment index in the German business environment in February increased from 51.7 to 54.3 points.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands show a moderate increase on the daily chart: the price range narrows, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading in the nearest time intervals. MACD is falling, keeping a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic rebounded from the level of 20 and reverses into an upward plane, indicating the risks of corrective growth in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.1367, 1.14, 1.145, 1.15.
Support levels: 1.13, 1.1255, 1.122, 1.1185.



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GBPUSD Market insights by Solid ECN Securities

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Development of flat dynamics in the short term.
GBPUSD has shown a poor upward trend against the US currency during the morning session, holding near the level of 1.355. Since the beginning of the month, it has been developing a generally flat dynamic in the short term. The instrument reacted insignificantly due to the improvement in the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe after there were signs of a resolution of the tense situation solely from the standpoint of diplomacy.

Yesterday, the market focused on macroeconomic statistics from the UK. Thus, the indicator of average wages for December, excluding bonuses, slightly corrected which is better than market forecasts. In turn, wages, taking into account bonuses for the same period, increased, contrary to analysts' expectations of a slowdown to 3.9%. Jobless claims fell by 31.9K for January, while the unemployment rate for December was unchanged.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands show a moderate increase on the daily chart: the price range narrows, indicating an ambiguous nature of trading in the short term. MACD falls, keeping a poor sell signal and below the signal line. Stochastic shows similar dynamics and rapidly approaches its lows, indicating that GBP may become oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.3565, 1.36, 1.365, 1.37.
Support levels: 1.35, 1.346, 1.3435, 1.34.


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Gold market insight by Solid ECN Securities

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Price retreated from all-time highs
Gold quotes are consolidating near the level of 1850 after a noticeable decline yesterday, when the XAUUSD pair retreated from its all-time highs since June 2021. On Tuesday, demand for safe assets declined noticeably after forecasts of upcoming hostilities in Eastern Europe did not come true. The Russian authorities announced the withdrawal of part of the troops to their places of deployment after military exercises in Belarus and diplomatic negotiations with interested parties. Against this background, investors switched their attention to other drivers, particularly to macroeconomic statistics from the United States.

Thus, traders monitor the dynamics of retail sales and industrial production. It is assumed that the figure may increase by 2% from 1.9% last month. Forecasts for the dynamics of industrial production are also positive and suggest an increase of 0.4% from the December value of 0.1%.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands show a steady growth: the price range changes slightly but remains quite spacious for the current level of activity for the instrument. MACD grows, keeping a weakening buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic retreats from its highs, signaling in favor of the development of corrective dynamics in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1860, 1868, 1879, 1890.
Support levels: 1847, 1840, 1831, 1823.



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XRPUSD market insight by Solid ECN Securities

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This week, the XRPUSD pair resumed growth after a downward correction towards 0.75 with primary targets at 0.91, and 0.9766.

At the moment, the key “bearish” level is 0.75, supported by the middle line of Bollinger bands. Its breakdown will give the prospect of developing a downward movement to the levels of 0.586 and 0.4883. Still, this option seems less likely since technical indicators signal the continuation of the existing trend: Bollinger Bands and Stochastic reverse upwards, the MACD histogram increases in the positive zone.

Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 0.91, 0.9766, 1.0742.
Support levels: 0.75, 0.5859, 0.4883.



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Brent Crude Oil market insight by Solid ECN Securities

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Oil awaiting the US inventory statistics

Benchmark Brent Crude Oil prices are correcting downwards after closing at more than seven-year highs on Monday, retreating from a yearly high of $95 per barrel and currently trading just above $91. The correction in the asset is supported by reports about the withdrawal of part of the Russian troops from the border with Ukraine.

Also, investors are awaiting statistics on weekly inventories from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a reduction in the figure by 1.076M barrels, which was below the expected value. According to preliminary forecasts, the EIA will record a decrease in inventories, which may increase pressure on asset quotes.

Support and resistance
The instrument moves within the Expanding formation global pattern on the global chart, having reached the resistance line. Technical indicators hold a weakening buy signal: indicator Alligator's EMA fluctuations range narrows, and the AO oscillator histogram forms local bars with a downward trend in the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 93, 95.38.
Support levels: 89.72, 85.32.


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USDCAD market insight by Solid ECN Securities

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The instrument develops flat dynamics
The US dollar is again trading with upward dynamics against the Canadian currency during the Asian session, testing 1.27 for a breakout.
Considerable support for the US currency is provided by macroeconomic statistics from the US on consumer inflation published the day before.

Support and resistance
In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is changing slightly, but remains rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is trying to reverse upwards keeping a previous sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic keeps a fairly strong downward direction and does not yet react to the resumption of growth of the US currency.

Resistance levels: 1.27, 1.275, 1.2786, 1.2812.
Support levels: 1.265, 1.26, 1.2558, 1.25.


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Silver market update by Solid ECN Securities

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Silver prices are consolidating near 23.5
The instrument still cannot recover to the local highs renewed on February 15. Then the reason for the wave of sales was the weakening of geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe when it became clear that the forecasts and assumptions about possible military operations on the territory of Ukraine did not materialize.

Although investors have turned their attention to the usual macroeconomic background and started predicting the actions of world regulators, certain geopolitical risks remain, and therefore the demand for safe assets is not completely reduced. Also, despite the further growth of inflationary risks, the US Federal Reserve is in no hurry to adjust its monetary policy vector.

On Thursday, American investors focus on the Initial Jobless Claims release. It is expected that the value for the week of February 11 will decrease from 223K to 219K.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands grow moderately. The price range narrows slightly but remains quite spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD tries to reverse downwards and prepares to form a sell signal (the histogram should be below the signal line). Stochastic shows a more confident decline and signals further development of downward dynamics in the nearest time intervals.

Resistance levels: 23.6, 24, 24.37, 24.67.
Support levels: 23.32, 23, 22.7, 22.4.


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USDCHF market update by Solid ECN Securities

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The US dollar updates local lows
The US dollar showed a moderate decline against the Swiss franc during the morning trading session, again poised to test the strong support at 0.92. The day before, the instrument also made attempts to approach this level, but then the "bearish" momentum was not enough.

It is worth noting that investors practically ignored the strong macroeconomic statistics from the US that appeared yesterday. In particular, the volume of Retail Sales in the country showed a strong growth. The dynamics of Industrial Production were also positive. In January, production volumes increased.

Today, during the day, investors expect the publication of statistics on the dynamics of Imports and Exports for January from Switzerland. The US, in turn, will publish data on the Jobless Claims for the week ended February 11.

Support and resistance
On the D1 chart Bollinger Bands are sharply reversing downwards. The price range is narrowing actively, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is going down, keeping a fairly stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic keeps a confident downward direction but is already approaching its lows, which indicates the descending risks of oversold USD in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.922, 0.925, 0.9276, 0.93.
Support levels: 0.92, 0.9177, 0.9157, 0.9125.

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Crude Oil market update by Solid ECN Securities

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WTI Crude Oil Pending nuclear deal decision

The North American WTI Crude Oil price corrects within a sideways trend, trading around the level of 90.5.

While investors are monitoring the situation around political tensions on the borders of Eastern Europe, new drivers that can determine the movement of energy prices have appeared on the market. Yesterday, Iran's chief negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani said that dialogue with Western countries on the "nuclear deal" is close to completion. The process will probably end in a few days after some "political decisions" from Iran are presented.

Most experts believe that Iran is in dire need of oil revenues. If the deal is concluded, the inflow of Iranian crude to the market will be very fast and voluminous – from 0.5 to 1.0M barrels per day in the second half of the year, which can correct asset price by $10-$15.

Support and resistance
The price moves within the long-term Expanding formation pattern on the global chart. Technical indicators maintain a weakening global buy signal: indicator Alligator's EMA fluctuations range narrows, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 93, 96.
Support levels: 88, 82.5.



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AUDUSD Market Update
During the Asian session, the AUDUSD pair has been trading near local highs of February 10, testing the level of 0.72 for a breakout.

Significant support for the instrument is provided by rather poor macroeconomic signals that have been coming to the market from the US in recent days. In particular, yesterday, investors drew attention to the growth in Initial Jobless Claims.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands actively grow. The price range changes slightly, limiting the pace of development of "bullish" dynamics in the short term. MACD grows, keeping a relatively strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line), and tries to consolidate above the zero line. Stochastic shows similar dynamics but indicates that the instrument may become overbought in the nearest time intervals.

Resistance levels: 0.72, 0.7250, 0.73, 0.7328.
Support levels: 0.716, 0.71, 0.705, 0.7.


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DAX 30 is correcting upwards trading at 15327 on positive component reports.

One of the world leaders in the production of alcoholic beverages, Heineken, showed another strong quarter, which also contributed to a positive annual result.
The growth leaders in the index are:
RWE AG (+4.66%), Continental AG (+3.29%), Delivery Hero AG (+3.16%), Beiersdorf AG (+2.36%).

Among the leaders of the decline are:
Infineon Technologies AG (-2.61%), Fresenius SE (-2.13%), Siemens AG Class N (-2.13%).

Support and resistance
On the global chart, the asset is trading within a wide sideways channel, trying to rebound from the support line. Technical indicators maintain a sell signal: the EMA fluctuation range on the Alligator indicator is still directed downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram continues to form new rising bars, being in the sell zone.

Support levels: 15170, 14800.
Resistance levels: 15510, 16260.


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EURUSD, the market is in a state of uncertainty
The market is in a state of uncertainty amid geopolitical risks and the variability of further actions of the American and European regulators. Investors expect further aggravation of the conflict around Ukraine. It is not yet moving into a military phase, but in the event of a negative development of events, a sharp increase in energy prices and new problems with the supply of components and raw materials are likely.

Meanwhile, policy makers in the EU and the US are divided on moving forward with monetary policy, which is also making the market uncomfortable. Most members of the European Central Bank (ECB), led by President Christine Lagarde, are on a wait-and-see basis, believing that inflation will slow down by itself during the year due to the receding of the coronavirus pandemic.

The opposition also exists within the regulator, represented by European regulator board member Isabel Schnabel and French central bank governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau. They favor an early end to the emergency bond-buying program with the prospect of further rate hikes. But supporters of tougher policies are still in the minority.

US Federal Reserve officials agreed to a rate hike in March but disagreed on how steep it should be. Some members of the regulator (San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari) favor a cautious increase in rates by 0.25%. They are now mainly opposed by the head of the St. Louis Fed, James Ballard.

Yesterday, he reiterated the need for drastic measures; otherwise, inflation could get out of control. In general, investors are not yet sure what actions they can expect from regulators in the future.

Support and resistance
The key “bullish” level is 1.1410, which breakout allows growth to 1.1475 (Murrey [4/8]), 1.156. A downward of Bollinger bands middle line and 1.1290 allows a decline to 1.1145.

Resistance levels: 1.141, 1.1475, 1.156.
Support levels: 1.129, 1.123, 1.1145.


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