NZD retail sales

Quoting ikimashu

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just for your reference~

This is a strategy I received from my broker...




Look to sell NZD/USD on remaining strength

The NZD/USD (Kiwi) has benefited from the highest nominal interest rates among the major traded currency pairs for several years now, with benchmark interest rates at 7.25% vs. the 5.25% Fed Funds rate or the 3.25% (soon to be 3.50%) ECB base rate. However, the RBNZ and the Finance Ministry have been extremely critical of persistent Kiwi strength. On more than several occasions in the last few weeks, Fin. Min. Cullen and RBNZ Gov. Bollard have explicitly indicated their preference for the NZD to move lower. Indeed, their comments are responsible for the sharp declines in NZD from recent highs on several occasions, but the yield differential managed to restore demand in each case.

Fin. Min. Cullen first noted his preference for Kiwi to weaken on Sept. 26 (9/27 in Wellington), sending Kiwi plunging by over 150 points in a matter of hours. Subsequently, Kiwi drifted sideways for several weeks before it began to move higher. Again, comments from Fin. Min. Cullen on Oct. 23, suggesting that carry-trade speculation in NZD was extremely risky in light of past history, sent Kiwi down 150 points over the next few days. This move lower broke the long-term daily upchannel only to see prices regain the trend-channel in subsequent days. NZD/USD then went on to make a minor new high at 67.50/55 relative to the prior high at 67.20/25. Looking at the full-scale chart below, we can see that a bearish momentum divergence developed after the first comments at the end of Sept., where MACD readings continued to fall while prices made further gains. The tide looks to have shifted lower again in recent days, with the key daily upchannel support being broken yet again, MACD resumed its course lower, and a double top is now evident at 0.6720/30. The 55-day moving average appears to be providing support for the time being, while the 21-day moving average is acting as a short-term pivot.

This weeks strategy looks to get short NZD/USD (currently 0.6605) on remaining strength in anticipation of a larger move south. The strategy looks to sell 50% of a short NZD position at 0.6650, which is just below daily trendline resistance drawn off the highs since 11/3 and currently at 0.6660/70 and falling. Look to sell the remaining 50% on additional strength to 0.6710 if seen, which is just below the broken key daily upchannel, now resistance at 0.6720. If both positions are triggered, the result will be a short position at an average of 0.6680. A loss of daily support drawn off recent lows at 0.6570 is likely to see prices move directly lower. If shorts are triggered, look to take profit for 50% at 0.6450, just above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the upmove and 50% at 0.6350, just ahead of the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6343. Stop loss on the shorts should be located at 0.6760, above recent highs, risking 80 points total. Stops should be adjusted lower on a daily close below 0.6560, which will constitute a break of recent trendline support.

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Quoting mohsen57

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Hi merlin did you notice that we have 3 reports for this NZD news?

<TABLE class=mainTxt cellSpacing=6 cellPadding=0 width="98%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD>15/11/2006</TD><TD>01:15</TD><TD noWrap>New Zealand</TD><TD>Retail Sales</TD><TD noWrap>September</TD><TD>%</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>


</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>15/11/2006</TD><TD>01:15</TD><TD noWrap>New Zealand</TD><TD>Retail Sales</TD><TD noWrap>Qtr3</TD><TD>%</TD><TD>0.8</TD><TD>-0.5</TD><TD>


</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>15/11/2006</TD><TD>01:15</TD><TD noWrap>New Zealand</TD><TD>retail sales y/y</TD><TD noWrap>year</TD><TD>%</TD><TD>3.1</TD><TD>2.9</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
do you have any comment about them? what is the meaning of them, thank you.

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Quoting summitfx

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I took a short after reading News comments and now I'm up 12 pips-May exit and watch now. I'm thinking that NewsTrader is a Market Mover

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Quoting summitfx

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I took a short after reading News comments and now I'm up 12 pips-May exit and watch now. I'm thinking that NewsTrader is a Market Mover

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Quoting summitfx

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I'm taking a 20 pip pre-news profit

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Quoting summitfx

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I'm taking a 20 pip pre-news profit

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Quoting NewstraderFX

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Don't wimp out man-set the long entry 15 points above where you are now...

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Quoting merlin

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the news has not come out. that move was the finance minister making some comments.

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Quoting summitfx

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A thousand lots- that's a lot of Bananas man. Some people sit around and read Economic reports all day and post dissertations and others trade!
What I can say?

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