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Trend Cycle Entry

  • #121
  • Feb 12, 2022 12:34pm Feb 12, 2022 12:34pm
Thx for the charts man and explanations.
  • #122
  • Feb 12, 2022 12:38pm Feb 12, 2022 12:38pm
Quoting kofix11
{quote} Thanks parisboy! Do you have an indicator composite or wave a,b,c or all of them.
Sorry Kofix11 I have none

I use :

a) my brain
b) my eyes
c) Paint

  • #123
  • Feb 12, 2022 12:57pm Feb 12, 2022 12:57pm
Quoting kofix11
{quote} Thanks parisboy! Do you have an indicator composite or wave a,b,c or all of them.
Kofix11 do you know what is the instrument tradedien the chart showed and its timeframe
  • #124
  • Edited 1:22pm Feb 12, 2022 12:58pm | Edited 1:22pm
Quoting WickedDaddy
Here is a trade I took yesterday at 0900 Central Time (U.S.) on a 1 HR chart. It is "Textbook" perfect. Let's review: 1. 15 EMA crosses 50 SMA up (first arrow) 2. Price retraces and touches the BB (second arrow) 3. StochasticRSI cycles down below 20% 4. Candle following the red candle that touches the BB is green and is NOT touching the BB (set-up) 5. Enter on next candle (white crosshair) Added bonuses: good separation of the 15 over the 50 Price has broken above the 100 SMA and is bouncing on it for support StochasticRSI is rising I held this...
Hello Wickeddaddy, Could you tell us which timeframe(s) are you trading?,

EDIT..I read above
Quote
A glance at my journal reveals approximately 20% daily, 40% 4HR, and 40% 1HR. This is not planned this way. It just so happens to be a rhythm I seem to have adopted naturally. BTW, that was 467, but it's 471 now.
OK, Thanks, now we know..
Also..
"Finally, when my rules were "set" I decided to make a checklist. I would check the list for each trade and keep that checklist for the results. That was the beginning of a journal. I have since created a journal that incorporates the rules checklist that I have to fill out for each trade, all the details of the trade conditions, results and notes of the why, what and any factors that were influential (including dumb decisions)."

Could you share it?
Thank You
"Great Men are not born great, They Grow Great."
  • #125
  • Feb 12, 2022 2:13pm Feb 12, 2022 2:13pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Kofix11 do you know what is the instrument tradedien the chart showed and its timeframe
Sorry no, I don't know. He mostly doesn't show us timeframe and instrument as you can see in his profile.
  • #126
  • Feb 12, 2022 2:42pm Feb 12, 2022 2:42pm
Quoting kofix11
{quote} Sorry no, I don't know. He mostly doesn't show us timeframe and instrument as you can see in his profile.
thank youkofix11

I will check
  • #127
  • Edited Feb 15, 2022 5:13am Feb 14, 2022 9:56am | Edited Feb 15, 2022 5:13am
Quoting WickedDaddy
It is "Textbook" {image}
Sell setup entry candle is marked by the red arrow:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1.png Size: 70 KB
Please help me:
what was wrong in my rules reading
or
how could I set this trade without a SL?
Thank you!
Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #128
  • Feb 14, 2022 10:10am Feb 14, 2022 10:10am
Quoting since80808
{quote} It's marked by red arrow: {image}Please help me: what was wrong in my rules reading or how could I set this trade without a SL? Thank you!
I only casually lurk on this thread so I may be wrong, but, it would appear your arrow location is incorrect. If long, price has to engage with the lower Bollinger Band (blue), then disengage, wait for a candle colour change and then buy at the open of the next candle. You appear to be using the Bollinger's MA middle line (white).
  • #129
  • Feb 14, 2022 10:51am Feb 14, 2022 10:51am
Quoting Geester
{quote} I only casually lurk on this thread so I may be wrong, but, it would appear your arrow location is incorrect. If long, price has to engage with the lower Bollinger Band (blue), then disengage, wait for a candle colour change and then buy at the open of the next candle. You appear to be using the Bollinger's MA middle line (white).
I'm interested to know why it didn't work also. It seems like a valid setup
  • #130
  • Feb 14, 2022 11:17am Feb 14, 2022 11:17am
Quoting ewebb205
{quote} I'm interested to know why it didn't work also. It seems like a valid setup
For the reasons I stated to @since80808, it doesn't look like a valid setup. See image below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: room1.png Size: 72 KB
  • #131
  • Feb 14, 2022 1:48pm Feb 14, 2022 1:48pm
Quoting Geester
{quote} For the reasons I stated to @since80808, it doesn't look like a valid setup. See image below. {image}
Where the arrow is should be where the continuation of the downtrend comes in since the averages are crossed downward. Also price has spiked the outer upper band. He removed the middle line on the bb
  • #132
  • Feb 14, 2022 1:52pm Feb 14, 2022 1:52pm
Quoting since80808
{quote} It's marked by red arrow: {image}Please help me: what was wrong in my rules reading or how could I set this trade without a SL? Thank you!
The only thing I can think of is to watch the higher time frames. It seemed like you sold into a bullish market
  • #133
  • Feb 14, 2022 1:57pm Feb 14, 2022 1:57pm
Wickeddaddy I have a question for you when you read these messages
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20220214-135518_Splashtop.jpg Size: 373 KB
  • #134
  • Feb 14, 2022 2:00pm Feb 14, 2022 2:00pm
I've learned that scaling into a position could help with drawdown and possibly waiting for a pullback after the heiken ashi color change could help
  • #135
  • Feb 14, 2022 3:22pm Feb 14, 2022 3:22pm
Quoting sick35
MT4 Indicator built for this system. + Alerts (Not tested yet) It does not depend on external indicators. Use discretion regarding MAs separation Will update indy soon, bugs found Updated New fixes {file}
sick35, thanks for the indicator.
Could it be modified to allow change of arrows colour?

Thanks.
  • #136
  • Feb 14, 2022 4:40pm Feb 14, 2022 4:40pm
Quoting ewebb205
{quote} Where the arrow is should be where the continuation of the downtrend comes in since the averages are crossed downward. Also price has spiked the outer upper band. He removed the middle line on the bb
Ah OK. He didn't say what direction he was going in. It looks bullish to me, hence my comments.
  • #137
  • Feb 14, 2022 7:31pm Feb 14, 2022 7:31pm
Quoting Geester
{quote} Ah OK. He didn't say what direction he was going in. It looks bullish to me, hence my comments.
yes sir
  • #138
  • Feb 15, 2022 7:13am Feb 15, 2022 7:13am
Quoting ewebb205
{quote} I'm interested to know why it didn't work also. It seems like a valid setup
No prob - it's not a grail. My main question is howTo without a SL?
Will wait for WickedDaddy kindly answer.
Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #139
  • Feb 15, 2022 10:34am Feb 15, 2022 10:34am
Quoting drsun
Hi WickedDaddy. Does it bother you when I want to ask a question? Why don't you make a trade at arrow number 1 (yellow). I see that the 1st arrow is very similar to the 2nd arrow trade you made. Is the trade with arrow number 3 valid? {image}
Questions, as long as they are relevant to the strategy don't bother me at all. Your question is a good one:

Arrow 1 does show the proper entry criteria, although the cycle (StochasticRSI) is the 2nd and I prefer the 1st (see first post). When I marked this chart, I marked the trades I actually took. I looked back over my journal, as I also log trades that have proper entries but that I don't take. My notes say that I did not like the trade at arrow 1 because the short term trend was overdone and I thought the trade would not produce well... My assumption at the time was that it would most likely consolidate for a while and I try to stay out of those periods. In this case, I feel I was right. I'm not always right and miss some good opportunities but I'd rather miss opportunities than sit in a trade that is going nowhere or possibly loses.

Arrow 2, while almost identical to conditions of arrow 1 (also a StochasticRSI 2nd cycle) was more in line with the direction of the Euro at the time. The 2nd cycle also was much stronger than the 1st and could actually be counted as the 1st because the previous cycle only barely touched 80%. (see first post) Also, purely based on my opinion, I expected further downside and I was right. But as you can see, if I had stayed in that trade for too long, price returned to the original entry point and would have erased all profits.

My method is very mechanical. But it is not the only way I make trading decisions. A comprehensive trader pays attention to central bank strategies, geopolitics, economic conditions, etc. No chart is going to reveal those conditions. No mechanical method, no matter how amazing, is going to determine the future of price action while CBs are competing for currency weakness, politicians are attempting to manipulate market outcomes or staging fights over political territory, and economies hang in the balance while a virus threatens supply chain havoc.

When the mechanical conditions line up, you still need to ask yourself; "will all other conditions support my trade?"
  • #140
  • Feb 15, 2022 10:38am Feb 15, 2022 10:38am
Quoting alba9567
Good day WickedDaddy, Do you trade 4h exactly the same as Daily chart or do you add any confirmation (sort of MAs) as you do for 1h chart?
I use my 1 HR chart (with 100 and 200 SMA) for 4 HR as well. If price is above the SMAs, I am generally looking for long positions, and vice-versa for the opposite.
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