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The Swamp

  • #95,481
  • Feb 13, 2022 2:18pm Feb 13, 2022 2:18pm
Finally - Let's Go
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #95,482
  • Feb 13, 2022 2:22pm Feb 13, 2022 2:22pm
Quoting gatorinla
So your saying in the shadow of war, during covid, it's a good time to raise the cost to tourist? Maybe you are right. Maybe higher interest rates in the U.S. On everyone's credit card bill is enticing many to go to Europe. Maybe the masses are gone to order a Beamer. Stranger things have happened. German Gdp off tourism is about 8%. Cut that in 1/2 and that economic forecast goes to negative. Behind that shrinkage is lost jobs. Lost jobs has a self fulfilling direction. People without a job tend to buy less. So the little money they do have will...
When covid hit New Orleans. Hotel rooms that were normally 500 per night, were sold at 100/135 per night. That's kinda what happens when demand shrinks. People with restaurants and hotels. Have to compete for a smaller pool of tourist. So the prices fall. That may entice people to travel during covid.

Still in the U.S., going to Europe is a luxury item. Inflation is up here too. Interest rising affects discretionary spending. The entire world if affected by inflation. That sucks money out of most people's discretionary spending. The French farmers may do well. Sure the ECB has to talk hawkish. Sure at some point they will raise. With that raise comes a cost. The ECB knows that cost is jobs. They are stuck between a rock and a hard place.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,483
  • Feb 13, 2022 2:27pm Feb 13, 2022 2:27pm
Quoting Maks
{quote} From what I can see there are statements about imminent war on the one hand (western media/politicians) and assurances that no actions will be taken unless Ukraine starts military actions on the other (Russian politicians). Ukrainian president made a statement that there were no signs of war coming (because the national currency was hit and money started to flow out from the country). Ukraine concentrated 150 thousand troops on the borders with separatist republics, Russian troops are 400-500 kilometers away from Ukraininan border. Looks...
I have already said my peace. It was backed with pa since stating. The fundis concerning the EZ aline with the techs. But I can be wrong.


Quoting gatorinla
If one wants to take a chance on 1492 ish holding R. 1308 1284 ish may be a tp.. Don't risk much more than a little above 1492.. Look for reversal signs on the smaller candles. PA is bullish, This is strictly a R/R play off 1492. The odds look low now. But at 1492 the reward makes up for it. If your long beware of 1492. A retrace of today can bring 1434. That will likely take your late entries. It would also place pa below 1447 again. Bulls likely need to take 1521. Or this will retrace to 1447 again. Bulls you have to do 1520+ or you will fall on your face.
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Another way to look at this. 1492 is large. Bears just have to keep the closes above at bay, The year Q month week day bears have done that. So far with 1492 and 1447. Retaking and closing today below 1447 is not bullish looking. It may be a total reject back to 11xx. Lots of time to talk about this later.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,484
  • Feb 13, 2022 2:31pm Feb 13, 2022 2:31pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I have already said my peace. It was backed with pa since stating. The fundis concerning the EZ aline with the techs. But I can be wrong.
Well, we all trade the probability of this or that outcome.
  • #95,485
  • Feb 13, 2022 2:38pm Feb 13, 2022 2:38pm
Quoting Maks
{quote} Well, we all trade the probability of this or that outcome.
Well pa was unable to hold 1447/49 on the larger charts of 2008 (50 to 14 year chart)on the year close. Last week unable to take 1492. Today looks to lose the close below 1331 and 1308. After closing Friday below the year close at 1369. So you may want to reconsider on a close below 1331 today, or 1308. A 1308 close will be a clear shot to 1208. A close below 1208 and 1123 and .09xx is much closer.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,486
  • Feb 13, 2022 3:04pm Feb 13, 2022 3:04pm
Lets see if there is a gap concerning 1331.2
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,487
  • Feb 13, 2022 4:01pm Feb 13, 2022 4:01pm
a gap open at 1337
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,488
  • Feb 13, 2022 6:02pm Feb 13, 2022 6:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
Pa closed below the week 1369. It should have some R value for closes. But a spike to 1412 should not be discounted. 1447/49 is still a R. So is 1492. 3171 may be a small R to protect 1369 some. 1331 a S that would be a R after, with closes below it. Bears want to close below 1331 and1308. The larger the close the better below. Last month did close below 1308 (1302 at the time.) 1302 or 1308 is a s/r. Pa made a fresh week close below the rejection of 1492, 1447 and 1369. That's bearish as it can be. The cherry on top is a nutkick a week close below...
Quoting gatorinla
Today the pa above 1369 may mimic the pa above 1331 and 1308. We got a taste of the volatility pa after the break of 1369. Above 1308 and 1331 it may range to 1369. Or just grind on 1331 and 1308 till it runs lower. It may be a large red candle when it breaks. {image}
\Getting near testing 1369/72 R from below. It may find R here. But normal is 1314. 1369 was not tested from below yet.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,489
  • Feb 13, 2022 6:18pm Feb 13, 2022 6:18pm
The last 6 years,, Once that year line in yellow is hit (closed side) and holds. PA can run. I'm just showing 6 years worth. Its that same when I look further. The smallest run is over 530 pips (6 years). The larger one is 2100 pips.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,490
  • Feb 13, 2022 6:27pm Feb 13, 2022 6:27pm
Quoting gatorinla
The last 6 years,, Once that year line in yellow is hit (closed side) and holds. PA can run. I'm just showing 6 years worth. Its that same when I look further. The smallest run is over 530 pips (6 years). The larger one is 2100 pips. {image}
We would then be, again, in the eye of the storm. That is 1370, right ? And do you get as interesting results from the daily levels? Thanks a lot for sharing, simply great insights throughout the thread !
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #95,491
  • Feb 13, 2022 6:30pm Feb 13, 2022 6:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
The last 6 years,, Once that year line in yellow is hit (closed side) and holds. PA can run. I'm just showing 6 years worth. Its that same when I look further. The smallest run is over 530 pips (6 years). The larger one is 2100 pips. {image}
The smaller one here was 480 pips in 2013. A lot of 700 pips moves. I clocked those moves year to year. The actual runs can be much larger. You can figure them out yourselves. Use the earlier to the later year. You can use those numbers. Using the high or low to figure those long runs on your own charts.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,492
  • Feb 13, 2022 6:37pm Feb 13, 2022 6:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The smaller one here was 480 pips in 2013. A lot of 700 pips moves. I clocked those moves year to year. The actual runs can be much larger. You can figure them out yourselves. Use the earlier to the later year. You can use those numbers. Using the high or low to figure those long runs on your own charts. {image}
this one using multi years is 3500 pips. To get an average skip the smallest one and largest one (year). Add the entire amount of pips, then divide the amount of years. That should give a reasonable average
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,493
  • Feb 13, 2022 6:43pm Feb 13, 2022 6:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} this one using multi years is 3500 pips. To get an average skip the smallest one and largest one (year). Add the entire amount of pips, then divide the amount of years. That should give a reasonable average {image}
That 2014 drop sure is a world of its own!
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #95,494
  • Feb 13, 2022 6:47pm Feb 13, 2022 6:47pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} this one using multi years is 3500 pips. To get an average skip the smallest one and largest one (year). Add the entire amount of pips, then divide the amount of years. That should give a reasonable average {image}
We may see this just because of the U.S. is now a net exporter of oil.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,495
  • Feb 13, 2022 6:52pm Feb 13, 2022 6:52pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} We may see this just because of the U.S. is now a net exporter of oil. Since 1970. The U/S. became a net producer of oil in 2009. The 50% balance changed then, The Usd has risen since. The Euro has fallen since. The euro dollar benefited as the U.S. imported more oil. The euro will decline for the same reason. {image}
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,496
  • Feb 13, 2022 7:04pm Feb 13, 2022 7:04pm
Gator is in the zone!
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  • #95,497
  • Feb 13, 2022 7:11pm Feb 13, 2022 7:11pm
Quoting mtako
{quote} That 2014 drop sure is a world of its own!
I may take a few years. But it didnt take long after July 2008. A war may accelerate things. There is always the unknown
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,498
  • Feb 13, 2022 7:24pm Feb 13, 2022 7:24pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I may take a few years. But it didnt take long after July 2008. A war may accelerate things. There is always the unknown
Indeed, and the unknowns are just as worthy to be sought after opportunities. And for 80some months now, we are at the same major support levels created from the bottom of that previously mentioned 2014 drop. Might not be moving for quite a while...
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #95,499
  • Feb 13, 2022 7:48pm Feb 13, 2022 7:48pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} traded today as planed...
if it hits 1313 tonight, I meet a goal. Than you owe owe me a dance.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,500
  • Feb 13, 2022 7:53pm Feb 13, 2022 7:53pm
Quoting mtako
{quote} Indeed, and the unknowns are just as worthy to be sought after opportunities. And for 80some months now, we are at the same major support levels created from the bottom of that previously mentioned 2014 drop. Might not be moving for quite a while...
I think that new strand covid messed this up. Just before Nov. ended. We got that warning around Thanksgiving. The Eu bounced to close above 1323. If not I think it would had closed the year below 1331 and probably below 1208.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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