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The Really Useful Grains/Soft Thread

  • #201
  • Feb 10, 2022 7:03am Feb 10, 2022 7:03am
wheat monthly, i think 946 is do-able.
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  • #202
  • Feb 11, 2022 6:55am Feb 11, 2022 6:55am
when the 4hr cross comes in (4h 20ema through daily 20ema) there is always some sort of retrace. I sold and reversed short but kept getting knocked out, then gave up. of course then it dropped like a stone, went below what i would have expected. would have been a great trade.

but i did buy the bottom and still think this will rock. fingers crossed.
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  • #203
  • Feb 11, 2022 2:15pm Feb 11, 2022 2:15pm
Quoting Mcbeaners
when the 4hr cross comes in (4h 20ema through daily 20ema) there is always some sort of retrace. I sold and reversed short but kept getting knocked out, then gave up. of course then it dropped like a stone, went below what i would have expected. would have been a great trade. but i did buy the bottom and still think this will rock. fingers crossed. {image}
this turned out to be a good purchase. not often you see the 1h 20ema bounce off the 4h 20ema and have that also bounce of the daily 20ema all at the same time. the results are almost always explosive. so this ain't over bro.

see circled in chart....

i have remained long in my position. end of session cummulative delta suggested they bought all sellers.
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  • #204
  • Feb 13, 2022 7:21pm Feb 13, 2022 7:21pm
nice start to the week, though TV has already rolled over the contract, Feb is around 810.

these setup don't come around often, so i'm in large. fingers crossed.
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  • #205
  • Feb 21, 2022 5:29pm Feb 21, 2022 5:29pm
Quoting Mcbeaners
nice start to the week, though TV has already rolled over the contract, Feb is around 810. these setup don't come around often, so i'm in large. fingers crossed. {image}
sorry been too busying trading this to comment, mostly stuff off the 15 min chart.

on this move I got canned as started to think long term and that was against the setup i entered the trade.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #206
  • Feb 21, 2022 5:31pm Feb 21, 2022 5:31pm
Quoting Mcbeaners
key moment to drive wheat south came and went. for the moment it looks like 1.272 fib is going to hold. main session will tell more. soya appears to be driving this higher... possible long setup off the daily chart. we'll see. {image}
this chart is now active (from the daily). there is still a chance is will fail (friday's movement does put it in doubt).

however, potential war with russia is now putting ukraine wheat off the table (russian too probably). this could get very hairy indeed.

look out above.

ps. already premarket (market was on hols today), the market is showing 10 cent rise from friday's close.

long baby long.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #207
  • Feb 21, 2022 6:25pm Feb 21, 2022 6:25pm
wheat stocks... 9 year low... hmmm
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  • #208
  • Feb 21, 2022 6:27pm Feb 21, 2022 6:27pm
2022/23 world #wheat use is projected to rise to a fresh peak, mainly on food consumption gains in Asia, while potentially large availabilities of alternatives, incl. #maize (#corn), are expected to cap wheat feeding in some consumers, notably in Europe and China.
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  • #209
  • Feb 21, 2022 7:04pm Feb 21, 2022 7:04pm
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  • #210
  • Feb 21, 2022 8:20pm Feb 21, 2022 8:20pm
unlike last time I sold this time. watching to get back in.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #211
  • Feb 22, 2022 4:21pm Feb 22, 2022 4:21pm
Quoting Mcbeaners
unlike last time I sold this time. watching to get back in.
i tried to short this near the today'sbottom for a quick scalp but failed.

but i did most of that rally. $$$$ cha ching!
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  • #212
  • Feb 22, 2022 4:22pm Feb 22, 2022 4:22pm
still think 870 is do-able for this run.
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  • #213
  • Feb 22, 2022 6:54pm Feb 22, 2022 6:54pm
btw i shorted the end of the session. small order. will add if i can .
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #214
  • Feb 23, 2022 6:44am Feb 23, 2022 6:44am
took a hit on that last trade.

btw don't use IB, their stops are rubbish.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #215
  • Feb 23, 2022 8:35am Feb 23, 2022 8:35am
looks like wheat is going without me.

meanwhile, i thinking of short corn.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #216
  • Feb 23, 2022 8:53am Feb 23, 2022 8:53am
mixed signals on corn. so no action from me....
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #217
  • Feb 23, 2022 10:59am Feb 23, 2022 10:59am
no trades today for me. but wheat did hit the target 874 as i thought it might on the setup from around the 16th.
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  • #218
  • Feb 23, 2022 3:54pm Feb 23, 2022 3:54pm
monster day for wheat. sadly i couldn't find any entry point. now in the blow off stage so your guess is good as mine.
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  • #219
  • Feb 23, 2022 7:08pm Feb 23, 2022 7:08pm
soya - double top anyone?
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  • #220
  • Feb 23, 2022 11:31pm Feb 23, 2022 11:31pm
Quoting Mcbeaners
monster day for wheat. sadly i couldn't find any entry point. now in the blow off stage so your guess is good as mine. {image}
wheat continues to smash it. up 60 during asian session. damn. i'm out.

i knew it was going to be good but this good?

630 buy order 933.75 held it up. gone now... hmm.
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