NZD retail sales

Hello,

my time zone is GMT+1

i see different times at different sites, at different charts, etc. ForexFactory says it is 10.45 this evening, but the news before always was 11.45.

I don't get it anymore.
Someone please tell me how late this news will be in GMT +1.

Thanks!!

9.45 pm GMT

if you are in GMT+1 then it will come out at 10:45pm. use the setting "GMT+1" from the dropdown menu and it will show you the right time.

btw the last two reports have been earthshakers.

check out bk's charts...
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=8956

The FF saying consensus is 0.0% while the others saying it is - 0.1% i hope it will come at least -0.2%, to trigger both...

Thanks merlin

I wasn't sure of it, cause if i look at other news in the past, with the same GMT +1 option, times are not correct. I mean nonfarm at 1.30 instead of 2.30. Perhaps something has gone wrong with the server change in combination with the new time?

http://www.forexfactory.com/index.ph...h=10&year=2006
wednesday 10/4 ISM at 3.00 should be 4.00

I took a look at the charts, but I am not sure if it is AUDNZD, or NZDUSD, or something else. Could you please let me know which chart this is?

Thanks
Rusty

Hi merlin did you notice that we have 3 reports for this NZD news? here i took it from easy-forex

<table class="mainTxt" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="6" width="98%"><tbody><tr valign="top"> <td>15/11/2006</td> <td>01:15</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">New Zealand</td> <td>Retail Sales</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">September</td> <td>%</td> <td>0</td> <td>0</td> <td>
</td></tr> <tr valign="top"> <td>15/11/2006</td> <td>01:15</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">New Zealand</td> <td>Retail Sales</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">Qtr3</td> <td>%</td> <td>0.8</td> <td>-0.5</td> <td>
</td></tr> <tr valign="top"> <td>15/11/2006</td> <td>01:15</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">New Zealand</td> <td>retail sales y/y</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">year</td> <td>%</td> <td>3.1</td> <td>2.9</td></tr></tbody></table>
do you have any comment about them? what is the meaning of them, thank you.

Good morning all,

Report i watched this morning on TV was of the opinion that retail sales will be around the 3-4 % mark. this may have been helped by lower fuel prices and some increase in house prices in the last few weeks. i dare say the reserve bank will be watching these figures with keen interest. I have found trading the NZ/USD tricky at the best of times due to its rapid spikes upon news events so i will think about trading the facts rather than the rumour. As always seek advice as this is just my opinions.
this is a great forum and i have learnt heaps. happy trading to you all.

Merlin, there appears to be a problem with FF Calendar's Time.

ISM is 10:AM EST event. But below, youd' see it appearing as 9:00AM on October?

This all happen when DST too effect last week.

Can I request that there be a "search" function with the Calendar? ie, I want to search all occurances of ISM and it will show the date, time and result. Not having to do it manually going through each month is a big bonus searching for particular data.

Recent comments from the NZ Minister of Finance indicate that NZ thinks it's currency is way overvalued. The overvaluation is very detremental to their exports-which is about 30% of their GDP.

I got burned on this report last time, when everyone was expecting a nice positive number-it went the other way. My opinion? The gov't is putting out some misleading numbers in an effort to drive the Kiwi down. I think they're gonna do it again.

I'm not telling you to trade it this way, but here's what I'm doing:

I'm going to take a short position, with a long entry (limit order) for 2x the lots. If the report does go the other way, my short position will get stopped out and I'll be in a long position.

Good Luck

yeah we know about this problem. the next version of the calendar should fix it. the issue is that when we shift the timezones for dst, the events in the past will shift to the wrong time. this is unavoidable with the current system (so im told!). we had to sacrafice the times in the past to make sure times in the future were correct.

Very Clever News! What is your exit strategy?

no it has nothing to do with the new server. dont rely on the times in the past, they are wrong as explained above. the current/future times are correct so you can rely on that. we didnt really build the calendar to be a historical reference, so we failed to build this feature to correct times in the past. sorry for the confusion!

I see from Burger's historic charts that last month at the time of the Retail report the NZD/USD was priced at the same level it is today.

just for your reference~

This is a strategy I received from my broker...




Look to sell NZD/USD on remaining strength

The NZD/USD (Kiwi) has benefited from the highest nominal interest rates among the major traded currency pairs for several years now, with benchmark interest rates at 7.25% vs. the 5.25% Fed Funds rate or the 3.25% (soon to be 3.50%) ECB base rate. However, the RBNZ and the Finance Ministry have been extremely critical of persistent Kiwi strength. On more than several occasions in the last few weeks, Fin. Min. Cullen and RBNZ Gov. Bollard have explicitly indicated their preference for the NZD to move lower. Indeed, their comments are responsible for the sharp declines in NZD from recent highs on several occasions, but the yield differential managed to restore demand in each case.

Fin. Min. Cullen first noted his preference for Kiwi to weaken on Sept. 26 (9/27 in Wellington), sending Kiwi plunging by over 150 points in a matter of hours. Subsequently, Kiwi drifted sideways for several weeks before it began to move higher. Again, comments from Fin. Min. Cullen on Oct. 23, suggesting that carry-trade speculation in NZD was extremely risky in light of past history, sent Kiwi down 150 points over the next few days. This move lower broke the long-term daily upchannel only to see prices regain the trend-channel in subsequent days. NZD/USD then went on to make a minor new high at 67.50/55 relative to the prior high at 67.20/25. Looking at the full-scale chart below, we can see that a bearish momentum divergence developed after the first comments at the end of Sept., where MACD readings continued to fall while prices made further gains. The tide looks to have shifted lower again in recent days, with the key daily upchannel support being broken yet again, MACD resumed its course lower, and a double top is now evident at 0.6720/30. The 55-day moving average appears to be providing support for the time being, while the 21-day moving average is acting as a short-term pivot.

This weeks strategy looks to get short NZD/USD (currently 0.6605) on remaining strength in anticipation of a larger move south. The strategy looks to sell 50% of a short NZD position at 0.6650, which is just below daily trendline resistance drawn off the highs since 11/3 and currently at 0.6660/70 and falling. Look to sell the remaining 50% on additional strength to 0.6710 if seen, which is just below the broken key daily upchannel, now resistance at 0.6720. If both positions are triggered, the result will be a short position at an average of 0.6680. A loss of daily support drawn off recent lows at 0.6570 is likely to see prices move directly lower. If shorts are triggered, look to take profit for 50% at 0.6450, just above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the upmove and 50% at 0.6350, just ahead of the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6343. Stop loss on the shorts should be located at 0.6760, above recent highs, risking 80 points total. Stops should be adjusted lower on a daily close below 0.6560, which will constitute a break of recent trendline support.

Limit Order? Or Stop Order?

Is this what you have in mind:
Place a short Position
Then place a Stop Buy at entry price + x pips of stoploss @ 2 lots?

I think NZD/USD responds better to bearish news (as of late) than positive news. So if we get a -0.3 or lower figure, I would expect the recent low of .6532 minimum to be tested in the next 24-48 hours. There could be a lot of selling if it breaks the .6584 low.

A positive wont get as much bang for your buck, but nonetheless still worth playing.

If I get profitable in the short position-I'll stay in 'till the profit retraces to an unacceptable level. Same thing if I get long. I don't expect more then 30-40 pips either way-but u never know...

Plus I'm over 400 pips/profit in the past several weeks...so I can do this with a smallish position and not get hurt either way.

As I said, this is not a strategy for everyone-it's a gamble. If you're not in a financial position to do something like this...then don't do it. And don't trade so that a loss will amount to more then 2-3% of your overall account.

Don't bet your rent/mortgage/tuition payments etc on a trade like this.

Much safer strategy is to use your news service to get the number and trade accordingly.

The weekly trend line has been broken!

I don't see a lot of risk in your strategy- News