Trading using average rotation of swings (ARS)? | Forex Factory

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Trading using average rotation of swings (ARS)?

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited May 31, 2022 3:16pm Jan 24, 2022 6:26pm | Edited May 31, 2022 3:16pm
Dear All,

I started with question regarding ARS, as defined below. Soon i decided to post here some info concerning "symmetry", if found.

So far symmetry was found in methods:

  1. Robert Miner (vibrations)
  2. Charles Goodman (somewhat underestimated and IMHO greater potential than Elliot)
  3. Ichimoku (N,V,E projections)
  4. Bryce Gilmore (1:1, over balance)
  5. Fibonacci Queen (PowerTool)


---

i would like to ask if anybody used "average rotation of swing" ("ARS") as a tool in his trqding routine ?

ARS is mentioned by FT71 as important step in his decision making process. As far as i understand he is measuring initial balance, and also measuring ASR to feel the type of participants in any given day.

ARS is also mentioned by Robert Miner ("vibration swings") and included in his commercial tools.

ARS is basically the effect of statistical analisys of swing segmented by regime (trend, reversion), direction (up, down), section of trend (impulse, pullback).

I am interested:
- if anybody knows a tool to do that work. Excell would do the work but i need complete affordable commercial tool.
- if anybody except intraday traders makes any use of such analise.

Any comments are welcome. I am just trying to figure out is it worth to dig deeper in this particular creek.

  • #2
  • Jan 26, 2022 9:41am Jan 26, 2022 9:41am
Sort of - measuring legs yes, but averaging no. Measuring movement is at the heart of buy and sell side institutional trading ergo it's deeply unpopular at retail level... so yes I'd wholeheartedly recommend it.

You flat out won't find anyone offering you the most useful stuff on a commercial website though or on a forum so you do need to do the heavy lifting yourself.

Averaging out these swings (or legs) completely destroys any usefulness though. Keep it simple, concrete and repeatable. The go-to quant approach using Excel, python, R etc will likely render the obvious invisible so rather than join the army of over-qualified analysts missing what's in front of their faces, look for the reaction on the charts and measure carefully. Automation can wait.
  • #3
  • Feb 1, 2022 3:28am Feb 1, 2022 3:28am
@triphop
Thank you for insight regarding averaging. I will never ever go that path.

As to measuring legs.
- there is a technique of measuring recent swings of identical direction (seperately for trend swings and correction swings) with 1:1 rule. Popularized by Bryce Gilmore (at least in my corner of the world). Attached is the the excerpt from his book ("1on1").
- there is also a technique of measuring recent swings of opposite direction - which is simply a fibo internal (ex 0,618) and external retracement (ex 1,618). For some mystery reason, measuring external retracements of swings inside trading range (cycle) seems to be applicable.

In all these cases we measure recent swings of the same degree, separately for various degrees, separately for trend/correction.

Is theere some other application of measuring (not averaging) you can direct me to ?
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 1on1.pdf   1.4 MB | 1,992 downloads
  • #4
  • Feb 2, 2022 10:24am Feb 2, 2022 10:24am
no worries, he's got the right ingredients but put together to make an altogether different kind of recipe. Trouble is with this kind of analysis, it's never backed up by stats, it's always discretionary, and it's often fudged; thereabouts x/y/z happen. That may be fine when you're starting out - for eg on average the best time to enter is likely to be around twice the time the first swing is made. But it's very rough and ready.

You can measure in a mind bogglingly big number of different ways. Honma (who invented candles) measured by a time period (and not the ones we have by default on our charts). Gann through channels - tunnel through the air is about a price channel without needlessly telling you how to suck eggs! And there are others - by price action, by fixed pip distances, against certain times of day, and any of all of these can be combined and any other them can be measured against horizontal or along the outside boundary of price or against a channel etc. And these are the obvious ones, there's more which are hidden (where trendlines intersect for example).

All roads lead back to the same place when you discover something, however you do it, but the hard bit is the discovery. Best poster on here who was also explicit was Crucialpoint - dig him up. Beyond that I draw a blank and I've read an outrageous number of trading books. Anything concrete simply just doesn't get published for obvious reasons but you'll find evidence if you dig deep enough.

good luck!
  • #5
  • Feb 7, 2022 6:31pm Feb 7, 2022 6:31pm
Obviously there are infinite ways of measuring - well pinpointed From what i saw and read (not much from yours perspective) the 1:1 and external on range (1,2 above) are somewhat logical and easily defined, and my eyeballs suggest there is some consistency. 1:1 works best when in-validated at least i would call this a sweet spot. It looks like:
1. 1:1 level price approaching - first touch.
2. 1:1 level penetrated in second attempt, deeper
3. 1:1 broken in 3 attempt violently.

Of course stage 3 is unusual, however it seems not risky ("relatively"), it is like reacion to Low Volume Node (market profile) - it is brutal, it is a change from correction to trend (or to a higher degree of correction).
  • #6
  • Feb 7, 2022 6:33pm Feb 7, 2022 6:33pm
Thanks for Crucialpoint direction, i will dig it up. By the way my real name is Marcin. Nice to meet you.
  • #7
  • Feb 9, 2022 4:58am Feb 9, 2022 4:58am
Hi Marcin, likewise. I did a poor job of explaining that - it wasn't to list out every method and say isn't it complicated, it's to say the metrics will be different but they all converge. It's important. When you come across anyone who understands this fully, they will swear x/y/z numbers are key, but the numbers relate directly to the method of measurement and one man's idea of measures can be very different from another.
Your approach is valid so long as it's fully measured and proportional; if you don't do this, you'll end up with the yeah kind ofs that'll have you running in circles for years. Get measuring
  • #8
  • Feb 9, 2022 5:17am Feb 9, 2022 5:17am
@triphop
Well said. Thank you for wise words.
  • #9
  • Mar 9, 2022 4:08am Mar 9, 2022 4:08am
I just have found out that Boroden (FibQueen) is also using 1:1 measurement as a "power tool". 1:1 was popularized by Bryce Gilmore as far as i know.

How: First measure the retracement (depth), secondly project that measured value on the developing retracement (projected depth).
  • #10
  • Mar 21, 2022 5:11am Mar 21, 2022 5:11am
Quoting ffpriceactio
I just have found out that Boroden (FibQueen) is also using 1:1 measurement as a "power tool". 1:1 was popularized by Bryce Gilmore as far as i know. How: First measure the retracement (depth), secondly project that measured value on the developing retracement (projected depth).
We share same thinking.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post13939621
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #11
  • Mar 23, 2022 12:00am Mar 23, 2022 12:00am
Quoting triphop
Hi Marcin, likewise. I did a poor job of explaining that - it wasn't to list out every method and say isn't it complicated, it's to say the metrics will be different but they all converge. It's important. When you come across anyone who understands this fully, they will swear x/y/z numbers are key, but the numbers relate directly to the method of measurement and one man's idea of measures can be very different from another. Your approach is valid so long as it's fully measured and proportional; if you don't do this, you'll end up with the yeah kind...
Trading is like a sport. Researching to understand the process is ok but discovery can come only from the action.
Simple grid trading like averaging up and down in drips keeps drawdown low to 5 pc and on a day of 90 pc sideways moves each of 1/16 size of ADR can generate 5 pc increase in margin equity deployed for a single grid if bot is deployed for execution. Ending in 20 pc increase in account equity at month end. The condition is you become a bot operator and keep looking for spots where the machine can enter trades and exit quickly. The machine can not give you any signals.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #12
  • Mar 23, 2022 10:18am Mar 23, 2022 10:18am
There is a trick i learned from a trader that is pretty neat. Measure the lengths of the last 2-3 pullbacks and take the average. The next pullback will most likely be about the same distance. This works surprisingly well. Works best when the market is not hectic.
  • #13
  • Mar 24, 2022 5:35am Mar 24, 2022 5:35am
Quoting trickshady
There is a trick i learned from a trader that is pretty neat. Measure the lengths of the last 2-3 pullbacks and take the average. The next pullback will most likely be about the same distance. This works surprisingly well. Works best when the market is not hectic.
Thank you for sharing it. It is worth exploring.
I am going to invite retirees who have participated in one-year mechanical demo trading of Sideways/Consolidation zone trading.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post13944218
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #14
  • Mar 25, 2022 7:42am Mar 25, 2022 7:42am
Quoting simnz
{quote} Trading is like a sport. Researching to understand the process is ok but discovery can come only from the action. Simple grid trading like averaging up and down in drips keeps drawdown low to 5 pc and on a day of 90 pc sideways moves each of 1/16 size of ADR can generate 5 pc increase in margin equity deployed for a single grid if bot is deployed for execution. Ending in 20 pc increase in account equity at month end. The condition is you become a bot operator and keep looking for spots where the machine can enter trades and exit quickly....
My experience was very different but all these things are individual. Brute force averaging is one way. Another way of looking at this is why did JPM buy a proprietary jump diffusion model for several million us$ the other month? Which they did. It tells you all you need to know about market structure and transparency of how the market works.
  • #15
  • Apr 4, 2022 4:57pm Apr 4, 2022 4:57pm
To illustrate symmetry method (equal corrections) pls find attached. EURUSD Daily.
If somebody could explain me why this works i will ... slap Will Smith on TV live
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.Daily.png Size: 53 KB
  • #16
  • Apr 7, 2022 5:20am Apr 7, 2022 5:20am
Quoting ffpriceactio
To illustrate symmetry method (equal corrections) pls find attached. EURUSD Daily. If somebody could explain me why this works i will ... slap Will Smith on TV live {image}
Natural law - Gann's law of vibration, Honma's 3 monkey method, Wyckoff's composite man etc. but it goes back to the dawn of time if you start digging.

but basically without a diversion into the arcane it's about price balancing over time. action / reaction.

You need to measure all aspects of that chart and you'll get on the right path.

now go and give smith a backhander from me
  • #17
  • May 31, 2022 5:10am May 31, 2022 5:10am
Another avatar of symmetry method: Ichimoku - Wave Principle.
https://2ndskiesforex.com/forex-stra...-introduction/
  • #18
  • May 31, 2022 5:26am May 31, 2022 5:26am
FYI
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf FOREX WAVE THEORY-1.pdf   5.9 MB | 581 downloads
  • #19
  • May 31, 2022 5:41am May 31, 2022 5:41am
Quoting parisboy
FYI {image}
Thank you, jest started to read
  • #20
  • May 31, 2022 6:02am May 31, 2022 6:02am
Quoting parisboy
FYI {image}
One could argue it is very basic, but i find it great to compare different methods especially what is similar in them. Great reading thank you.
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