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Have I found something useful, or is this time wasting?

  • #21
  • Feb 8, 2022 8:40am Feb 8, 2022 8:40am
This will make the Ea very dynamic because you can then adjust different settings for every pair or set of pairs. And also if you like to risk and tell it to look just for the last 8 days for example, with a lesse excursion pips.

Also the Ea have to apply the same rules as long as it is in a conditions that our calculations is allowing it to enter the market. I mean after it have executed the first trade and it hit a tp. The question is what next? The answer if the market go back and the ea find the same rules for entering a buy, it have to enter again.

Ok for a loss it have to be the same. Only if we like to double our position to cover our last losses, so we code a multiplyer for lost trades.
Also a money management for those that will stay in the market for a long time so positions get doubled or lesser while we loos and or win.
  • #22
  • Feb 8, 2022 10:17am Feb 8, 2022 10:17am
Hi, skipped time when market was crazy is very bad decision. You don't know how your strategy will be behaving in bad time, what happened with your account if this situation will be repeated? Double position sniffing me like....martingale, consider this points
  • #23
  • Feb 8, 2022 11:53am Feb 8, 2022 11:53am
Quoting ProfesorPips
Hi, skipped time when market was crazy is very bad decision. You don't know how your strategy will be behaving in bad time, what happened with your account if this situation will be repeated? Double position sniffing me like....martingale, consider this points

Well, I think that in bad times like 202.03-04 and 2018.04-05 and 2016.12 is not so often. And in these times you could suffer the losses and consider it a necessary loss you can't avoid. I hope though that I make good income in the other periods that can cover up for these bad situations when they happen.

And yes, martingale is a problem that have ruind all my last strategies, so to avoid it is better. You are right.
  • #24
  • Feb 8, 2022 1:11pm Feb 8, 2022 1:11pm
not often but you never know when they were coming
  • #25
  • Feb 8, 2022 1:41pm Feb 8, 2022 1:41pm
Quoting ProfesorPips
not often but you never know when they were coming


True. Now we might in a situation like those. Russia and Europe and USA and the Nato blablabla. This will really make bad situation economicly if something seriously between them happen. We hope of course nothing will happen. But maybe. I feel sorry for XM. Many demo account I will destroy for them. LOL

But this idea that I am playint with I have constructed it so it will not be so dangerous in such situation. Because since I have a 10000 account, and I am just trading 0.05 and let say just 12 pair is meeting my conditions, so in worse case let us say they all will loos at the same time. Well. I will loos maybe 2400 pips. These are just 10% of the account.
So, all in all, I will still have amunitions to continue my fight against the market, and Putin and Biden. lol
  • #26
  • Edited 3:44am Feb 9, 2022 3:32am | Edited 3:44am
Quoting aalaarajy
It is about to code an option in the ea where the user is able to put any numbers of candle of the current time frame that the Ea have to look after. [...] So what have to happen is:
I understand your example, but that case is only relevant when you first start up the EA. Then it can indeed happen the range is larger than the threshold set. However, once it is running, the price action will not suddenly jump. It will slowly build up range and your EA will enter as soon as the threshold is reached. Effectively, this means the EA will enter at the threshold value, not later.
  • #27
  • Feb 9, 2022 3:43am Feb 9, 2022 3:43am
Quoting ProfesorPips
skipped time when market was crazy is very bad decision.
Indeed! Your EA should survive many years of price action without filtering out any date range. You can not predict when the market goes crazy (if you could, you would use that knowledge to become very rich). Therefore, always use many years of data to backtest. Use actual ticks with spread, because there were times in the past when the spread was crazy and impossible to trade.

The problem with Martingale, grid, price averaging, etc. strategies is their equity curve. For quite some time, they will show a nice rising line. However, eventually it will make a big drop and give back all the profits you made. Mathematically, if your strategy does not have an edge, there is no money management scheme that will make money. So in the long run, the equity curve will be a sawtooth-like shape around the starting balance that is slowly dropping due to spread, commission and other cost.
  • #28
  • Feb 9, 2022 5:55am Feb 9, 2022 5:55am
Is it time to throw in some indicators that work or not yet ?
  • #29
  • Feb 9, 2022 7:26am Feb 9, 2022 7:26am
Quoting yoriz
{quote} I understand your example, but that case is only relevant when you first start up the EA. Then it can indeed happen the range is larger than the threshold set. However, once it is running, the price action will not suddenly jump. It will slowly build up range and your EA will enter as soon as the threshold is reached. Effectively, this means the EA will enter at the threshold value, not later.
Ok, so this will make the idea not so efective as it should ?
Well, I also want to tell the ea that it have to add more candle and more as time pass by. Because you can imagine if it have to just calculate 36 candles (and that is what the user defined candle numbers) then it might never enter the market. Because think about the following: You start the trading, it looks after 36 candles, it find out that the range is not above the minimum excursion pips. Well the time pass by. Let say after 7 days the conditions will be met if we add these 7 days to those already 36 candles since we dragged our ea into the chart, but since it have to calculate only 36 candles then the conditions get not acheaved, and maybe never. So the Ea have not to just look after the user-defined number of candles, but also add the following candles that will follow from the moment it get started.

So is these rules not possibel to code do you think?
  • #30
  • Feb 9, 2022 7:36am Feb 9, 2022 7:36am
Quoting yoriz
{quote} Indeed! Your EA should survive many years of price action without filtering out any date range. You can not predict when the market goes crazy (if you could, you would use that knowledge to become very rich). Therefore, always use many years of data to backtest. Use actual ticks with spread, because there were times in the past when the spread was crazy and impossible to trade. .

Ok, I get the point, but what I do not understand here is, since my idea have a stoploss, and since it's conditions is not so often acheaved, and since I not always have open trades for the specific pair that might fail, and since I have many pairs and the diversification is one of my keypoints, so why shall I be worried about times like korona 03-04 of the 2020, or the brexit 2016 11-12. Why can I not consider those are just the losses that I have to consider since we are in this Forex Market were losses is always and winning is so dificult?

I thought the only case where I have to consider this useless is if I manage to create an Ea for it and backtest all the possibilities and find that the winning is so low and random that you cannot count with it.
I mean if the winning is so high that losses every time and then is ok. I can deposit again and continue my trading after few weeks from the moment the market will crash me.
  • #31
  • Feb 9, 2022 7:47am Feb 9, 2022 7:47am
Quoting aalaarajy
Why can I not consider those are just the losses that I have to consider
Yes, indeed. You must also consider the losses while backtesting. Use all historical data to backtest your strategy without filtering unpleasant date ranges. That way you will see if your profits exceed the losses. Your backtest will include those moments the market went crazy so you can see if your stops work correctly and if the drawdown will not be too large.

If your stategy is to stop trading for 2 weeks after a big loss, then simply build that into your EA and backtest as normal. If your strategy is to wait until the ATR drops back to normal ranges, then program that. If you split your money over 2 accounts each time it has doubled and intend to sacrify an occasional account, then simulate that by having a hard stoploss in your EA corresponding to the amount of drawdown one of your sacrified accounts would suffer. Etc. etc.

You should always be able to backtest your strategy on many years of historical data, otherwise you are just gambling. If you want to gamble, then go to the casino. Much more fun than sitting in front of a screen all day ;-)
  • #32
  • Feb 9, 2022 7:50am Feb 9, 2022 7:50am
Quoting lemur6666
Is it time to throw in some indicators that work or not yet ?

Sorry to say my friend I am so far from creating working or not working indicaters. I do not have any knowledge about coding. I am here posting in this community because I hope I will get nice and useful inputs and suggestions like those I already have got from experienced traders like Yoriz and others. Also I hope that someone have some time to waste with my idea and create and Ea for it. Or if I have to pay a programmer soon I will find out all the aspects that I have to take in considerations, and also if this is possible to be coded or not. Because who knows, maybe this is not possible and need manual administration.
  • #33
  • Feb 9, 2022 10:36am Feb 9, 2022 10:36am
hi, did you figure out, how to use your screen reader with MT5? It is now possible?
  • #34
  • Feb 9, 2022 11:21am Feb 9, 2022 11:21am
[quote=aalaarajy;13887227]
Quoting mtako
Thanks again. I need the 28 pairs all together because if I just take one pair I might not be able to enter the market with this idea only one ot two trades every 3 months or so. So I need many pairs to cover up for the losses that might happen. So because of this an ea is really important for this idea. But can you tell me if it is possible to code these rules to an ea, or an ea also limited to what it can do?
My pleasure mate. And sorry I did not respond sooner. I think you did not understand some of previous posts. I suggest you reread them and at least try my input out , practically. It could save you a lot of time and effort. Having many pairs will not make any difference if your strategy is not consistently and safely successful enough with one pair. I gave you some good tips in my last post. I hope you consider actually doing hard historical and open-minded work without an ea. I am certain that, if you do, you will realize many useful things that will make things much, much easier in future. Hope it helps. Cheers and good luck!
Quoting mtako
Hi mate, I think you have a great attitude and you are starting from scratch, which is smart ! Consider asking yourself the question, why 33% 66%, why 6 weeks? Or any other given amount of time and percentage to calculate from? Really dig deep and through many years and occurrences(+10years+1000 occurrences minimum). Also, consider asking yourself : "Can the % (33/66 or other)and time(6 weeks or other) be considered to trade with safe and consistent success when the price itself is constantly changing it's average ideal %/time?" There is a lot of...
Quoting mtako
Quoting aalaarajy
{quote} I work with eas every day. I have gone through literally thousands of variations of eas and almost all take into account pullbacks and time like yours, but of course much more also. Your idea is so basic that you should do the work going through charts to see for yourself trade after trade how price moves; you have a lot to learn. I am almost certain that your idea will change completely if you do that, and for the better. Don't you pay anyone for this, waste of money. There will be no end to the development or
...
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #35
  • Feb 9, 2022 11:59am Feb 9, 2022 11:59am
Quoting ProfesorPips
hi, did you figure out, how to use your screen reader with MT5? It is now possible?
No. This was impossible. I have two different screenreaders. One of them do not read anything when I launch the strategy tester in mt5. Just say dialog. The other let me read some of the options there like the date and the input and overview and such, but also not enough so I can use the backtester. I think it is because the mt5 is newer and the screenreaders are slower when it come to updating and upgrading. Or maybe it is the enterface programmed completely different from mt4.


What I am doing right now to be able to test this idea manually is to go to the investing.com and find the historical data for the pair I want to trade and read the data there. Some times weekly data, and some times monthly. And then daily. And I type in the wordpad until I have a clear view about the pair and where it is now, and then trade it from my iphone since the mt4 there is completely accessible with the Voice Over (the screen reader provided from Apple). The funny now is that since monday I have deposited real money for the first time since 2020. And I found that the euraud, gbpaud, gbpnzd, eurnzd, nzdjpy is meeting my conditions. So I traded those all together sell. I have 268$ in my account. Now I am in profit 92$ so more than 30%.
Lol, I know that this is luck and not repeat itself every time, so because of that I am asking you experienced traders if this is something to rely on or not. Especially when right now all the trades I have traded came with me and not against me. So could this approach be profitable in the long run?
  • #36
  • Feb 9, 2022 12:44pm Feb 9, 2022 12:44pm
Quoting mtako
Hi mate, I think you have a great attitude and you are starting from scratch, which is smart ! Consider asking yourself the question, why 33% 66%, why 6 weeks? Or any other given amount of time and percentage to calculate from? Really dig deep and through many years and occurrences(+10years+1000 occurrences minimum). Also, consider asking yourself : "Can the % (33/66 or other)and time(6 weeks or other) be considered to trade with safe and consistent success when the price itself is constantly changing it's average ideal %/time?" There is a lot of...

Ok, I have not paid enough attention to your grate and valuable input. To be honest I have tried to ask myself all these questions you mentioned. To be honest my answer is all the time: "This is a possibility, no more, or less."
The problem is even people that call them self experienced do not have a clear answer about how this market have to be dealt with. I thought in the beginning when I found this Forex market that this is a work where you have specific rules and methods to get to work there. After all these years since 2018 until now I discovered that this is absolutely not like that. Even those with grate knowledge about the market cannot give you how they make profit in it since I found out that if all traders traded in one method then no one will be able to profit. So it is like guess play. And this bothered me so much.
And the funny in all of these (or maybe the sad) that these tons of youtube channels to so called experienced traders, will not give you a final way to how you can operate in the market. So the channels owner open it because he hope that we (new-beginners) will watch his videoes so he can profit from ads in Youtube. LOL, where the forex profits then? To begin with I thought that really faluable knowledge is to find in these courses in Youtube, so I erged some of my sighted friends to try learn technical analysis, and kept erging them until I discovered even technical analysis is not enough. I played for years with martingale and grid and the eas that offer that. I purchased Forex Fury (a paid robot) and many others. Also I tried to find respected and big companies that offer to work for you in this market with very little profit but where your capital is safe, and failed. No one will give you any word when it come to this market. So I realised that all in this market is depending on possibilities, but some possibilities is stronger than others. When I failed to be consistent in this market, I turn to the historical data in Investing.com. Lol they are now my only and last attempt. I just hope to find a way to get even the slightest profit out of the market.

Why 66% or 33% or the six weeks? Well they are just a possibility. Since six weeks is not so long time that the politics and economic situations could have changed the pair's trend completely. Why not one or two week? Well his is very little time you give to the pair. Maybe it is still trending and you think it will pool back. Why just 33%? Well because I have seen in many pairs that before it change it's trend completely it make tons of pool back and forward. So this is just a possibility.

But why I have turn to Forex Factory's forum? Well because I like to know your thoughts and grate ideas. Maybe you will tell me that this possibility is absolutely not worth the time so I can leave this market completely. Or maybe you will say "WOW!!!!!! You have really crashed the market. From tomorrow all the Brokers will come to you and ask your advice Aalaarajy." Lol

Why an ea? Well I hope to adjust it in so many ways that I can choose the best settings and conditions..
So far I am trying manually. But my problem manually is not letting me feel confident. It is like a blind searching for something. Looool, And I am blind really, but you know what I mean.
  • #37
  • Feb 9, 2022 1:37pm Feb 9, 2022 1:37pm
Your 66 % is not as random as you may think,

Price returning to point a ,within 20 pips ,occurs 66 % of the time.when price trends that % changes and the markets efficiency is effected.concidering this is happening continuously range will occur and correct the inefficiency. Those return points that don't get revisited become a % value for example a return within 50 pips,and so on,the higher the return pip value the higher that % drops.but each pip return value is efficient. Even though price might trend for years and some return values never get revisited or I should say the money runs out.to exploit this one needs to trade the inefficiency back to efficiency, ie the 66 %. So focus on that and not a fixed price point
  • #38
  • Feb 10, 2022 3:50am Feb 10, 2022 3:50am
Quoting diceman555
Your 66 % is not as random as you may think, Price returning to point a ,within 20 pips ,occurs 66 % of the time.when price trends that % changes and the markets efficiency is effected.concidering this is happening continuously range will occur and correct the inefficiency. Those return points that don't get revisited become a % value for example a return within 50 pips,and so on,the higher the return pip value the higher that % drops.but each pip return value is efficient. Even though price might trend for years and some return values never get...
could you please explain this further? I could not understand what you meant about the price and value points
  • #39
  • Feb 10, 2022 10:20am Feb 10, 2022 10:20am
I am curious about the effect of using the real account。
  • #40
  • Feb 10, 2022 1:40pm Feb 10, 2022 1:40pm
Quoting katienotcat
I am curious about the effect of using the real account。

I cannot say for now since I started Monday and I have cheated a bit since I have used not a stop loss, but added a position to two of my trade that should have hit a stoploss. In any case today I took 105$ as profit of 268$. This is very high because all the trade came with me. But two of them should have lost if I have not cheated. So this will not be accurate if not an ea is involved since I sometimes change the rules.
But after months from now on if my 268 have not be blown by the market, and if I have made profit, we can talk more about it's success or faleore
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