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Follow a real trading strategy or is it just time wasting?

  • #21
  • Dec 30, 2021 6:12am Dec 30, 2021 6:12am
I have tried:

1. Averaging against the trend with 1x, 1.5x, 2x, 10x and any you can imagine
2. Both side grid
3. Reverse with double or any multiplier
4. Add X on every level

Averaging works only on ranging market. If the market is trending it will smash you. Reverse the trades workd great on trending but will wipe you out on ranging. The problem is that it is impossible to predict 28 pairs movements.

And you always forget about fees, slippage and spread. But the results can vary more than 30%! It is not 0.1% or even 1%.
For example 1 point = 1$ and the commission for 1 lot is 5.5$
Then if you have -100 points loss it is not -100$, it is -105.5$ at least.
Then if you add 10 lots more, then your loss will be >1600$ and 5 such a trades will just wipe you out not because some of them will be in loss, but because you will run out of your margin!

You better open excel and try everything first. It is not so complicated.
Observer effect
  • #22
  • Dec 30, 2021 7:08am Dec 30, 2021 7:08am
Quoting ryuryu
I have tried: 1. Averaging against the trend with 1x, 1.5x, 2x, 10x and any you can imagine 2. Both side grid 3. Reverse with double or any multiplier 4. Add X on every level Averaging works only on ranging market. If the market is trending it will smash you. Reverse the trades workd great on trending but will wipe you out on ranging. The problem is that it is impossible to predict 28 pairs movements. And you always forget about fees, slippage and spread. But the results can vary more than 30%! It is not 0.1% or even 1%. For example 1 point = 1$...
thanks again for your input and great information you are sharing with me. But let me correct that the last idea was not for 28 pairs but for one pair only. So I asked do you think this is possible since it is just one pair. Let us say gbpUSD. One pair and you open limit and stop orders as this I have described in the last post. It is also a disaster? We are again thinking without any indicators or technical analysis
  • #23
  • Jan 3, 2022 9:36am Jan 3, 2022 9:36am
Ok guys. So far I am not succeeding with this idea. Any other ideas that do not involve any technical analysis or indicators and that just rely on the market movements? Ok risky but somehow have logic in it?
  • #24
  • Jan 3, 2022 1:42pm Jan 3, 2022 1:42pm
Quoting aalaarajy
Ok guys. So far I am not succeeding with this idea. Any other ideas that do not involve any technical analysis or indicators and that just rely on the market movements? Ok risky but somehow have logic in it?
When GBPUSD price runs 90 pips from 13:00 till 20:00 open opposite deal with TP 10 pips and SL 40 pips.

here 3 years backtest:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd_simple.png Size: 104 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd_simple1.png Size: 261 KB

TP/SL are checked every round 5 minutes. And deals are opened also only in round 5 minutes. For example open deal at 14:45 and close deal at 15:55.
  • #25
  • Jan 3, 2022 1:55pm Jan 3, 2022 1:55pm
grids do have very strong protection of the center levels (for the current whatever range) and therefore, grid trading has nearly 100% chance of a failure. however, there is a little to no protection at all, on the outer grid levels (away from the current range's center)... sounds crazy, but only there (buy high/sell low) grid trading does not fail...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #26
  • Jan 3, 2022 2:26pm Jan 3, 2022 2:26pm
Quoting MoneyZilla
grids do have very strong protection of the center levels (for the current whatever range) and therefore, grid trading has nearly 100% chance of a failure. however, there is a little to no protection at all, on the outer grid levels (away from the current range's center)... sounds crazy, but only there (buy high/sell low) grid trading does not fail...
MZ hello!!! Where have you been my friend??
Observer effect
  • #27
  • Jan 3, 2022 7:25pm Jan 3, 2022 7:25pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} MZ hello!!! Where have you been my friend??
Hi ryuryu, being busy to finish the development of my indicators/eas. More free time now.
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #28
  • Jan 3, 2022 11:00pm Jan 3, 2022 11:00pm
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} Hi ryuryu, being busy to finish the development of my indicators/eas. More free time now.
I am very glad that you are back
Observer effect
  • #29
  • Feb 8, 2022 12:24pm Feb 8, 2022 12:24pm
[quote=ryuryu;13844285]{quote

Just to update this topic, and quoting your post to say I have failed in all versions of this idea so badly that I do not think this have any chance to succeed. All the accounts I have traded both those with high risk and those that was meant to stay in the markets for months did not show any positive results that we can rely on. So your observations was more accurate than mine.

In any case, since I cannot learn the real technical analysis, I will continue searching for a method to enter the market and grab some profits and go out. But so far the Market is punching me out over and over, and it laughing of my weak attempts to punch back. lol
  • #30
  • Feb 8, 2022 12:32pm Feb 8, 2022 12:32pm
Risk management is key to somebody's success. Any successful trader's strategy would have that in.
Risk Management is of utmost importance!
  • #31
  • Feb 8, 2022 12:45pm Feb 8, 2022 12:45pm
Quoting RCtrader
Risk management is key to somebody's success. Any successful trader's strategy would have that in.

Exactly. But the problem with this strategy that I have described in the first post is that even the smallest lot size is not enough, and the drodown grew and grew until it blow the account.
I posted here just because to make this point clear to avoid that newbeginners take it and try it and loos money.

So far I did not find a final solution for this market. Maybe the other strategy in my other post. I don't know. So far the market is the winner 100 goal when I am 0. Lol
  • #32
  • Feb 8, 2022 12:50pm Feb 8, 2022 12:50pm
Quoting aalaarajy
{quote} Exactly. But the problem with this strategy that I have described in the first post is that even the smallest lot size is not enough, and the drodown grew and grew until it blow the account. I posted here just because to make this point clear to avoid that newbeginners take it and try it and loos money. So far I did not find a final solution for this market. Maybe the other strategy in my other post. I don't know. So far the market is the winner 100 goal when I am 0. Lol
But that's the whole point, that implementing risk management should keep one's drawdown under 1%.
Risk Management is of utmost importance!
  • #33
  • Last Post: Feb 8, 2022 1:31pm Feb 8, 2022 1:31pm
Quoting RCtrader
{quote} But that's the whole point, that implementing risk management should keep one's drawdown under 1%.

Wow! 1%?? Let me reach the 10% drodown I will consider myself genious.

Remember that my trading is like random trading. So how will I both make profit and my drodown will not go above the 1%?
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