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Trend Cycle Entry

  • #81
  • Feb 1, 2022 4:49pm Feb 1, 2022 4:49pm
hello wickeddaddy, here's a question, how could i handle drawdown in the event that the heiken ashi colors change back against me in a trade? i know that you have a mental stop loss but from visual backtesting the heiken ashi candles will change colors back and forth sometimes before the trade goes into profit. how do you deal with that?
  • #82
  • Feb 2, 2022 12:36am Feb 2, 2022 12:36am
Quoting WickedDaddy
{quote} The daily and 4HR charts provide a greater level of probability and pip count per trade. But the opportunities are fewer. It depends on your trading style and the pairs you choose. I only trade 3 pairs and mostly only 2 - EU and AU and sometimes UJ (rarely). I have run this method on minor pairs/cross pairs and it does not work as well due to the volatility within typically choppy trends. See my post (#78) above: That was a 1HR chart trade and it was perfect.
On average how many trades will you have in a week following only EU-AU-UJ in your opinion?
  • #83
  • Edited 9:31am Feb 2, 2022 8:50am | Edited 9:31am
Here is a useful indy, to help go through all the pairs, and TF's.

I've been uploading screenshots here for 12 yrs. Now, for some reason, I cannot upload screenshots. ?
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Symbol changer profit display v3.ex4   33 KB | 672 downloads
  • #84
  • Feb 2, 2022 11:02am Feb 2, 2022 11:02am
Quoting gf233
{quote} On average how many trades will you have in a week following only EU-AU-UJ in your opinion?
In a week? I think it's more in terms of months, or better, years, to be honest, when trading the daily timeframe.
  • #85
  • Feb 2, 2022 7:30pm Feb 2, 2022 7:30pm
Quoting diamonddbw
Here is a useful indy, to help go through all the pairs, and TF's. I've been uploading screenshots here for 12 yrs. Now, for some reason, I cannot upload screenshots. ?{file}
Coded by our very own and talented cja

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...rofit-display?

Later versions are available there
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #86
  • Feb 2, 2022 7:35pm Feb 2, 2022 7:35pm
Quoting diamonddbw
Here is a useful indy, to help go through all the pairs, and TF's. I've been uploading screenshots here for 12 yrs. Now, for some reason, I cannot upload screenshots. ?{file}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2022-02-03_11-32-52.jpg Size: 145 KB

seems to be fine today, site was down yesterday for a while
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #87
  • Feb 2, 2022 8:13pm Feb 2, 2022 8:13pm
Thank you for sharing your strategy.
  • #88
  • Feb 2, 2022 8:31pm Feb 2, 2022 8:31pm
Quoting BataviaTrade
{quote} In a week? I think it's more in terms of months, or better, years, to be honest, when trading the daily timeframe.
Lol, it's not that bad.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #89
  • Feb 3, 2022 9:34am Feb 3, 2022 9:34am
Quoting gf233
{quote} On average how many trades will you have in a week following only EU-AU-UJ in your opinion?
All time frames included, I probably knock out 3-4 trades a week on average. I have an account in which I trade 1 HR and 4HR charts. I have another account for 1D trades. I'm in the U.S. and the asinine rules prohibit hedging and require FIFO of orders/trades. So I could not have a long term 1D trade open while also trading the same pair on a 1 HR TF. Therefore, 2 accounts.

I am EXTREMELY selective.

You may have read this in another of my previous posts: Be the spider. Let the food come to you.
  • #90
  • Feb 3, 2022 11:04am Feb 3, 2022 11:04am
Quoting WickedDaddy
{quote} Be the spider. Let the food come to you.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Agreed. I've tried about 8 trades so far. I did have some losers, BUT, as usual due to stupid pulling the trigger.

However, still in profit overall. Only one trade still running, EA in at 5862.

Thanks WD!

No Tesla's yet?
  • #91
  • Feb 3, 2022 1:40pm Feb 3, 2022 1:40pm
Quoting WickedDaddy
So many years away and now returning as a mature trader. I read a couple of my old posts/replies and realize the journey. In my time away, I developed various systems, turned charts into bowls of spaghetti and traded naked charts as well. I developed intricate indicators that use the same data every indicator uses - price and time. I failed, I learned, I failed, I learned. I stopped failing. After a period of success and at the request of friends, I jumped through all the government and financial regulatory hoops and founded an alternative investment...
Thank you WickedDaddy for this simply but very effective strategy. I have a couple of questions, lets say that price is moving upwards on the D1, we have a candle that intersects with the BB, then disengages and changes color on the same candle, can we buy on the open of next down candle according to your rules ?? Many times I see that the MA's cross way before the trade happens, is there a max number of candles that you wait for after a MA crossover ??
  • #92
  • Edited 7:23am Feb 4, 2022 2:36am | Edited 7:23am
Quoting sick35
MT4 Indicator built for this system. + Alerts (Not tested yet) It does not depend on external indicators. Use discretion regarding MAs separation Will update indy soon, bugs found Updated New fixes {file}
Seems there is no any problem with this indicator so far. Thank you Sick35
If you don't build your DREAM, Someone will hire to help build theirs ...
  • #93
  • Feb 4, 2022 11:04am Feb 4, 2022 11:04am
Quoting clayton89
Valid trade setup? {image}
No. I know it looks like one but let's review:

You are looking for the first cycle up after the cross of the 15 EMA under the 50 SMA. That first cycle needs to contact the BB, release and switch to a negative HA candle.

The entry you point at is the 4th cycle of retraces and that is an extremely weak entry.

There has been some confusion about the the price touching the BB as being the only qualifying parameter. But as I state in my original post, you want the FIRST cycle after the cross. If it doesn't happen - no trade. Those are the rules.

I bend my rules and I take trades that did not touch the BB. I take trades that perhaps only made it as far as touching the 15 EMA, with all other rules being met. I take 2nd cycle trades - but never the 4th. But I can do that because I have mastered the method I created. Another trader on this forum (Robinhood) said it best - It's like learning to ride a bike. Start with the training wheels on (the rules). As you get a feel for it and become proficient, you can take off the training wheels (bend the rules).
  • #94
  • Feb 4, 2022 11:39am Feb 4, 2022 11:39am
Quoting pipsquick16
{quote} Thank you WickedDaddy for this simply but very effective strategy. I have a couple of questions, lets say that price is moving upwards on the D1, we have a candle that intersects with the BB, then disengages and changes color on the same candle, can we buy on the open of next down candle according to your rules ?? Many times I see that the MA's cross way before the trade happens, is there a max number of candles that you wait for after a MA crossover ??
Hi Pips...

I'm not sure I understand your question. If you have a chart that shows this, that would be great. However, based on what I think you are saying:

If a candle intersects the BB, it can not then disengage. Once a wick touches the BB, it remains. The shape of the candle my change, as the body may shrink and pull away, but the wick can only get longer, not shorter. So even after that candle closes, it remains connected to the BB by its wick. It is true that sometimes the candle can change color to the direction you are looking to enter while remaining connected to the BB. Entry IS possible on the open of the next candle but that would be bending the rules and therefore lowering the probability of a successful trade. That is up to you.

On the MA cross: Check the rules again. You want the first completed cycle (retrace) after the cross. Yes, this is X number of candles after the cross - it doesn't matter how many. The essence of this method is to establish a change in direction (MA cross), and then enter after the first retrace to take advantage of a continuance of the new trend at it's beginning.

The principle is derived from the most basic of trading fundamentals that are standard operating procedure at many of the biggest asset management firms. It is to
1. Establish trend
2. Enter on a pull back

The method I have developed is to identify when that pull back has ended and the trend will resume. I like the first pull back because even in choppy markets, I have found that you'll get at least one continuation out of even a short term trend change.
  • #95
  • Feb 4, 2022 11:43am Feb 4, 2022 11:43am
Quoting diamonddbw
{quote} ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Agreed. I've tried about 8 trades so far. I did have some losers, BUT, as usual due to stupid pulling the trigger. However, still in profit overall. Only one trade still running, EA in at 5862. Thanks WD! No Tesla's yet?
Still in EA?

Looks like an amazing trade for you.

Teslas?
  • #96
  • Feb 4, 2022 3:19pm Feb 4, 2022 3:19pm
Quoting WickedDaddy
{quote} No. I know it looks like one but let's review: You are looking for the first cycle up after the cross of the 15 EMA under the 50 SMA. That first cycle needs to contact the BB, release and switch to a negative HA candle. The entry you point at is the 4th cycle of retraces and that is an extremely weak entry. There has been some confusion about the the price touching the BB as being the only qualifying parameter. But as I state in my original post, you want the FIRST cycle after the cross. If it doesn't happen - no trade. Those are the rules....
Thank you for clearing that up. By cycles I thought you meant each time it touched the BB and disengaged, so I'm glad I asked now. Will make a note of that and will be sticking to the rules as strictly as possible. Cheers!
  • #97
  • Feb 7, 2022 8:53am Feb 7, 2022 8:53am
Quoting WickedDaddy
{quote}exit based on the conditions at the time
Could you please share your rules\ideas of the exit plan and also your trailing stop?
Thank you!
Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #98
  • Feb 7, 2022 8:55am Feb 7, 2022 8:55am
Quoting WickedDaddy
{quote} Still in EA? Looks like an amazing trade for you. Teslas?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Closed EA with a few.

Tesla: https://www.tesla.com/modely
  • #99
  • Feb 8, 2022 10:34am Feb 8, 2022 10:34am
Quoting since80808
{quote} Could you please share your rules\ideas of the exit plan and also your trailing stop? Thank you!
That's tough to answer. I treat each trade as an individual situation with its own parameters for exit. But here are few basics:

  1. If there are no other mitigating conditions, I'll exit on the first color change of a candle. So, if I'm long, the candles are green, I'll exit on a red at it's close. Opposite for shorts. That's probably the easiest rule to follow.

  1. Mitigating conditions are things like: strong S/R zones, influential news is scheduled (NFP, Rate announcements), extended periods of the StochasticRSI at extremes (signaling an imminent change) or extended periods of price riding the BB (I'll exit when the price finally pulls away)

    1. Multiple of these conditions can set-up that will motivate a decision to exit.

  1. If I take a trade in the evening (during the Asian session for me) I will set a TP order for whatever I am comfortable with. It usually does not exceed 30 pips and is usually more like 20. But this means I can go to bed with a high level of confidence that even light volatility during the morning London session will trigger my TP and I'll make a healthy profit. This method is only when I'm trading short timeframes, like 1 HR.

  1. Trailing stops: I typically put these behind my longer trades, such as on a 1D chart. Once the trade has around 50+ pips of profit, I'll put a trailing stop behind it, starting at slightly above breakeven, for an average of 50 pips to start. As the trade progresses, I will adjust the trail tighter. It's very seldom that my trail gets hit. I usually exit manually before that happens. If the trade has made more profit than I anticipated, has a big day, sudden pump in my direction, or the mitigating conditions I mentioned are or will occur, I'll take the money. I hate seeing my trail get hit because, psychologically, it feels like I lost some money that I had at one point.

Once in a while I nail a trade and exit right at the turn for maximum amazingness. That feels good. But more often than not, I leave money on the table. And that is OK. I don't lose money and that is far more important.

Caveat:
So many traders count pips as a way to determine success. I don't. I use pips in my above explanations because that is universally understood. But I count dollars. My lifestyle and household budget does not run on pips. I know what I would like to generate in income on a monthly basis and that is what drives how I trade. Often, when I've exceeded my expectations for a given month, I'll take the rest of the month off, close all trades no matter where they are and just enjoy not thinking about trading. Trading done well is an intensely focused endeavor and takes a lot of energy and grit. It's nice to walk away from it as often as possible.

  • #100
  • Feb 8, 2022 1:59pm Feb 8, 2022 1:59pm
Hello WickedDaddy!
Do I get it right that this kind of multiple touches of BB are disqualified?
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