EUR/CAD

sell limit from 1.442, stop loss above 1.463

Still stuck at the same levels. Need to get way above 1.442 quickly to avoid falling back down.

EUR bulls may be disappointed.

is there going to be a trend change soon or not with this pair?

The pair has been very bullish in the H4 chart. The buyers may wait for the price to go towards the North by offering them long entries. However, the daily chart shows that the price is right at the last significant swing high. Thus, the buyers are to be very careful here. On the other hand, the sellers may wait for the price to produce a Double Top to find short opportunities.

looks like it has failed to exceed 1.463 decisively today

bulls could give up

back to 1.442 very soon?

EURCAD Sell Clear Sell All the Way Sell

No Stopping

I Have Sells from 1.46120 1.45200 My Target is 1.44000

Will Post the Trade Graph Soon

I expect another month of range trading for this pair, likely between 1.453 and 1.43. Bulls failed to break out past 1.463 after the ECB meeting.

Sold @00 half size

Update: complete avge 96

Closed short 90, +5

Took a short on 85, 1/2 size

Update: SL at BE, TP~50

Canadian Dollar Softens As Bank Of Canada Stay On Hold
The Bank of Canada skipped the opportunity to raise rates as Omicron weighed on the economy.
However, the general outlook was very positive and the bank remains on course to raise rates throughout 2022.
The Canadian Dollar dropped on the initial disappointment, but should stay supported given the outlook for the BoC.

Wednesday’s session has been very strong for risk assets throughout the European session and just after the US open. This is perhaps surprising given the key FOMC meeting later in the day, a meeting in which the Fed is expected to cement its hawkish stance and possibly announce a swift end to the QE programme. All equity markets are higher, with the Dax +2.2% higher, the FTSE +1.6%, and the Nasdaq making up lost ground with a +2% rally.
Such large gains are mostly a function of the much larger declines that at one point took the Nasdaq –18% from its recent all-time high. There is also a sense that the Fed may not be as hawkish as some expect and the response in stocks over the last two weeks could get them to soften their stance. This view is also reflected in a slight softening of US yields and the US dollar still at lower highs, although both are still looking bullish.
Currencies have been affected in different ways during this bout of risk off. The USD has performed well, especially against the AUD, Sterling and the Euro. The Euro has been weaker due to escalating Ukraine tensions and the prospect of sanctions on Russia pushing up energy prices further. Commodity currencies such as the Canadian Dollar have been stuck somewhere in the middle, with high oil prices providing a tailwind, but risk-off tempering the upside. Wednesday’s BoC meeting didn’t help the bullish case much either.

Bank of Canada Stays Put
The BoC meeting this week may have been overshadowed by the FOMC meeting but it does provide a good insight into central bank thinking and may even provide a hint to what the Fed does later in the day. There was a fairly balanced consensus that the BoC would make their first interest rate rise, but they stayed on hold, citing the Omicron as the reason.
“The Omicron variant is weighing on activity in the first quarter,” the bank said. It also noted, “The global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is strong but uneven.”
This seems to be enough to delay its rate hike, even though most of the rest of the statement referred to factors supporting a tighter policy such as high inflation, stronger than expected growth and high oil prices. The Canadian Dollar dropped immediately after the meeting and was lower by around –0.5% against the USD in the following hour. This could be expected given the expectation for rate hikes, but the CAD should find support and stay bid as this is likely a short delay to assess the impact of Omicron and a number of rate hikes are still expected this year. ING remain bullish on CAD:
“...there is not a strong appetite to turn bearish on CAD simply on the back of the BoC policy outlook. After all, the BoC statement clearly paves the way for a rate hike in March, which means that the prospect of five rate hikes in 2022 currently priced in by the market remains quite intact.
We continue to see the BoC tightening cycle as a positive factor for CAD in 2022, although external factors will play a big role too in directing the currency from now on. “
These external factors mostly come from the effect of correlated markets. Weaker global stock markets could weigh, as would a strong reversal in oil, although the latter looks unlikely given the geopolitical backdrop. The CAD is especially attractive against low yielding, oil dependent currencies, which explains why EURCAD is trading below the 2020 low.
— ExchangeRates.co.uk

When Russia decides to invade Ukraine next week, this pair will dump since CAD is related to oil.

My stop loss above 1.463 survived after the ECB meeting.

I love trading EURCAD... said no trader ever...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I think selling will be safe today once more sanctions are announced on Russia. It would also depend on what happens to oil.

the blue lines are my targets for this pair

I am going to keep an eye on the pair to go short at the beginning of the next week. The pair has been very bearish in the H4 chart. It closed its trading week by producing a bullish reversal candle. The level of 1.39650 may work as a flipped level of support and drive the price towards the South if it end up producing a bullish reversal candle.