Have I found something useful, or is this time wasting?

So, again I post and idea I have in the hope of listening to your grate comments and suggestions. As I have mentioned in my earlier topics in this community that I am blind and cannot do any technical analysis or depend on any charts analysis or any of these amazing stuff that you are relying on guys. And as a blind person with plenty time to kill I have found this Forex Market and that is not for blinds at all, since even sighted persons and 90% of them fail in it. But you know? I like to try.
Because I like to try I have only depended on the mathematical calculations, grid and it's life companion Martingale. So far the market have punched me out so easy and with a smirk on it's face.. And I have ruened so many demo accounts for XM that they are now crying. LOL

Now I am tired of all these ideas without stoploss. I have now an idea I hope you will pay attention to it and tell me if I have something that I can rely on, or it is just another time waste.

Because the prices go up and down, I have observed that the prices in the most cases pull back to earlier levels. So can we not create a strategy based on this senario with a tp and sl? By calculating how many pips have the price moved either up or down - let say for the last six weeks - then we can consider that the price will at least pull back 66% of the movement. So if it have moved down 400 pips, we have to assume it will pull back at least 264 pips up before it will continue it's journey down, if it is not just keep climbing up. So what we do is not get greedy. We just have to hope for a 33% of the way, so just 132 pips. So this have to be our sl and tp. 132 sl and 132 tp.
So, don't you think this idea have a bigger chance to give more profitable trades the loosing ones?
And yes, this will cause that we will not be able to enter the market so often. Maybe in a month or two only one or twice. But I will solve it by trading 28 pairs and not just one. So I will keep search for these conditions in these pairs, so whenever a pair in these conditions I enter the market.

This of course need an Ea for it to be more clear because we can then test it in the backtester. And in an Ea we can let it decide the percentage out of so many candles we like.
The EA have to trade as follows:
It have to look at the last "user-defined numbers of candles" and it have to see how many pips the market have ranged, and where it is now. If it is in a level more then the "user-defined at least numbers of pips" so it will enter a buy if it is down, or sell if it is up, and it have to calculate the sl and tp according to the how many pips it is up or down, and it have to put the sl and tp according to the "user-defined percentage".

And let me remind you that if we found it in most cases profitable then we will trade 29 pairs together since the chances of all pairs meeting our requirements at the same time so rare that it is near the imposible. So we will end up having 7 or 10 trades opened at the same time.. So if we have made our money management correct then we will not worry about our account to be blown up.

So what do you think? Does it deserve the time or? And is there anyone with coding knowledge that will create and Ea for it so we can play around with it in the backtester?

Ok, was what I said make any sense? Or did I just made a mess out of my attempt to explain my idea?

Hi, what time frame do you want to use? Regards Greg

For now, and because I do not have an expert to do my work and analysis, I am using the weekly timeframe. So I’ll look for the last six or eight weeks. If I found that the pair have ranged in more than 300 pips, I calculate from the position the pair is now at, and use my stop loss and take profit by percentage accordingly.
but of course if I have an expert for this idea, we can use any timeframe, but we have to also tell the expert that it has to look for many candles. So if it is the one hour timeframe, the ea have to look after 1000 candles for example. Or 300 candles. And so on. This could be interesting because the expert will have more choices to make it’s calculations from. But because I am trading manually right now to test this idea, I am using just the weekly timeframe

but what do you think about the idea itself? Is this nonsense, or does it make sense?

Do you know what draw-down (DD) is? Do you know what equity is? If you have a million dollar account and you trade 0.01 lotsize then, yes, your strategy might work. But if you had a million dollars you'd probably earn more from a savings account.

In live trading, if your account moves down 400 Pips you may be margin-called and your account closed before it has a chance to move up. Yes, price moves up and down, and if you hold a trade long enough (weeks, months, years) it will likely revisit a previous price. But unless you have infinite funds (and time) then your account might not survive long enough for the original price to be revisited. Plus, your funds are tied-up in that losing trade and are not available for new trades. I wouldn't worry so much about losing trades -- it's the price of doing business. Learn to move on and trade in a way that allows you to survive and trade again tomorrow. Also, I don't think that relying on arbitrary historical prices being revisited makes much sense.

Now, there are strategies that rely on "special" historical prices called "targets". But that is a subject for a different thread...

well, but I was not planning to hold the trade for 400 pips. I was just saying that the 400 pips will be my signal if I find out that the pair have ranged in these 400 pips, and now it is in the bottom or in the top of this 400 pips I will either go buy if it is in the bottom or a sell if it is in the top. So I will consider it have to go back at least the third of the way, and this third will be my stop loss and take profit. 132 pips in this case. So my question was if this is realistic and will generate more profit trades than losing once, or it is just time wasting? Or I am still not clear about my idea?

So, I do not know about the drawdown or the expected profits out of this idea. It is just calculations that I have observed and like to know from you experienced traders if this is realistic and I can rely on it or not?
this idea, if I have managed to explain it in my first post clearly, it’s all about calculations and without any kind of technical analysis or using indicators for this matter. end it will depend on all the Forex instruments that we can use of course with less spread as possible. because every instrument in itself will not generate signal for us to trade only once or twice every month or two

anyway, if you have understood my idea and if you know any ea that will be able to let me backtest this idea I will really appreciate it if you could tell me about it

and if I have not managed to explain it and just made a mess in my first post I will also be glad if you will tell me so I can try with other words

Hi mate, I think you have a great attitude and you are starting from scratch, which is smart !

Consider asking yourself the question, why 33% 66%, why 6 weeks? Or any other given amount of time and percentage to calculate from? Really dig deep and through many years and occurrences(+10years+1000 occurrences minimum).

Also, consider asking yourself : "Can the % (33/66 or other)and time(6 weeks or other) be considered to trade with safe and consistent success when the price itself is constantly changing it's average ideal %/time?"

There is a lot of work to do still, and a lot more than most are prepared to do. But you have taken the first steps and that is the most important thing, so I wish you all the best, and good luck !

[quote=mtako;13886418]

Thanks for your input. I hope I will get more input from you guys so I can see if my idea something worth to use time on or not.
Also, do you think this idea worth to create an EA for and pay for the programming, or it is just so new beginner one that is like random buy and sell?

[quote=aalaarajy;13886462] I work with eas every day. I have gone through literally thousands of variations of eas and almost all take into account pullbacks and time like yours, but of course much more also. Your idea is so basic that you should do the work going through charts to see for yourself trade after trade how price moves; you have a lot to learn. I am almost certain that your idea will change completely if you do that, and for the better. Don't you pay anyone for this, waste of money. There will be no end to the development or no consistent success with the resulting ea. Stick to one pair, they all act differently at any given time, so for trying to develop for many pairs at first is a waste of time as you will have to redo everything every time you add something to it... Think more deeply about my previous post. My humble 2 cents.

hi, hard to say if your idea will work or not. The 400 pip range also has a daily chart, and it will be easier to check an idea without an EA.

The problem without Ea is not possible to squeez the best results and potencials out of this idea. But I have just began my manual trading and lets see.

[quote=mtako;13886418]

Thanks again. I need the 28 pairs all together because if I just take one pair I might not be able to enter the market with this idea only one ot two trades every 3 months or so. So I need many pairs to cover up for the losses that might happen. So because of this an ea is really important for this idea.

But can you tell me if it is possible to code these rules to an ea, or an ea also limited to what it can do?

Here is an MT5 EA that does what you described in post #1. The backtest result for EURUSD 2016-2021 with the settings you proposed (ExcursionPips=300, TakeProfitPips=132, StopLossPips=132) doesn't look great:


What you are suggesting is that the price is mean reverting after a large excursion. That is not necessarily true. There can be a fundamental reason why the value of a currency has changed permanently (politics, war, pandemic). In fact, I think on smaller scales (small excursions, lower time frames) the price is more likely mean reverting.

Anyway, you can try all that out by playing with the settings and trying different symbols.

[quote=yoriz;13887269]{quote

Thank you very much for your eferts and for the EA. I am though sorry to say I cannot use it. I don't know why, but mt5 is not accessible with my screen reader, so I am not able to use the tester there. If there are a version for mt4 for the same EA I will really appreciate it.

Or if you could help me by testing the gbpusd from the period 2018.02. until 2020.02. Avoid 2020.03-04 since there was a really crazy up and down because the Korona..
The excursion pips 400 and sl and tp 132.

Also if it possible to test several pairs at the same time? I have read somewhere that in mt5 it is possible to test many currencies at the same time. Is this possible really? If it is, then my idea need many pairs and not one, so they can cover up for each other's losses.
And for the pairs with big movements and they are gbpusd, gbpnzd, gbpaud, gbpcad, gbpchf, eurnzd, euraud, eurcad. For these the excursion pips have to be 400 at least and the sl and tp 132.
And for those with less apertite for big movements like eurusd, eurgbp, audusd, audcad, audnzd, audjpy, audchf, nzdcad, nzdusd, usdjpy. Excursion pips 240 and sl and tp 85.

In any case I am thankful because you took the time to post this ea for me, and so if you have time to test the gbpusd for me, or several pairs I will really appreciate it.

Let me also explain that this idea is not necessarily depending on 400 pips range or 132 sl and tp. They were just examples. It have to be depending on percentage of the range in specific period of time. It could be in 8 weeks, or 12 weeks, and so on. So if we found that the range was 700 pips for example, then we have to deal with the 700 pips, and not just 400 pips. Also we have to find out where the price right now? It is in the bottom or top of this 700 pips, or it is somewhere in between? If it is in the middle, then we will not enter the market, if it is in the top, then we enter sell, or in the bottom then we enter buy. And of course our sl and tp is the 33% of the range.

Or maybe we will find out that the range is just 290 pips, especially for those pairs that not range so much like eurgbp or usdchf.. We have to deal with it. But of course we will have to consider a minimum numbers of pips we will not consider a range that is possible for us. Like if we are use to that the gbpusd always have big movements like 500 pips or 400 pips or 600 pips, and we for any reason find that in the last 8 weeks it have just ranged 190 pips, of course here we will not consider to enter the market, so our minimum range for this pair is 300 pips for example.

Anyway, all these considerations I make when manually, but if there were an ea it will be a very accurate observation of this idea. If I find it to be profitable in the next months I might consider searching for a coder to code something for it. I hope though if anyone have the time and like to play with this idea like me and have knowledge for coding to code something.

Sorry to hear that. You really mis out on MT5. Backtesting in MT4 is a joke. It is 10 times slower, doesn't use real ticks, does not simulate slippage, etc. For backtesting you really should use MT5 to get reliable results.

Perhaps you can ask the vendor of your screen reader for advice? I run both MT4 and MT5 on Linux using Wine emulation and they work fine. If even such a weird incompatible environment works with MT5, then I don't see why a screenreader shouldn't be able to handle MT5.

Perhaps one of the other posters in this thread can give it a try?

[quote=yoriz;13888002

Thanks for your help. And you have erged me to play around with my screenreaders to solve the accessible issues I have with mt5. Because I have made tons and tons of backtesting in the last two years in mt4. And you are saying it is more accurate in mt5? All these last test then was waste of time. So thanks for your notices

We don't know beforehand how long a trend will continue. We don't know whether it will be 400 or 700 pips. The EA now immediately opens a position when the price has moved "ExcursionPips" or more. You suggest to wait with the entry to see how the trend plays out? But how should we then determine when to enter?

No, it is not about to wait. It is about to code an option in the ea where the user is able to put any numbers of candle of the current time frame that the Ea have to look after. Also an option where the user tell the ea that there are a minimum pips the pair have ranged in before it have the right to continue and calculate what and how.
And then an option where the user have to tell the ea which percentage of this range have to be used as tp and sl.
And then an option where the user can tell the ea what is going to happen after a loss.


So the inputs will be:
Signal candles : 36 (Lets assume we trade daily)
Minimum excursion pips: 300
sl/tp percentage: 33


So what have to happen is:
1- that the ea look in 36 days for the gbpusd and find out that it have ranged in 255 pips. No trade here and nothing happen.
2- It looks in these 36 days and find out that the pair have ranged in 566 pips, and now it is in the middle so if it enter the market either sell or buy there are less than 300 pips (our minimum excursion pips) for each direction, so also no trading here.
3- It looks in the 36 days and find out that the pair have ranged in 566 pips and now it is in the bottom, means it is somewhere in - 500 pips or so (like if the gbpusd for 36 days or within this period was 1.31500 and now it is 1.27) well it have to enter the market with a buy trade with a 33% of the rest of the range as sl and tp. So it is a about 149 pips because the rest is 450 pips out of these 566 pips , right?
4- this is the same if the pair is in the top but with a sell trade instead of course.

This will make the ea dynamic and can be adjusted in so many ways that it will be interesting using time with it. But I don't know if these rules can be coded or not. But I think they can be because what we are talking about is limit orders (buy-limit and sell-limit), and we are talking about percentage calculations. The only thing I don't know about is how to tell the ea that hey mr. Ea, when you look in these 36 candles, please look after the overall range that the pair have been through, and find out where it is now so you can make your calculations.