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  • #281
  • Feb 4, 2022 1:15am Feb 4, 2022 1:15am
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} Here is a trade I am now in, USDCAD H4. The chart explains it all. Next will be to set targets and manage the trade - it's all described in the document I'm a bit concerned that the long-term EMAs have flattened out a bit, but walvekarraje has a plan to get out of a trade quickly if things do head south. I must just go and read up on that bit.
If I had used basic Guppy theory here I would never have entered this trade. Where's that emoji for hitting my head on the desk?

The remaining portion of this trade still survives, and it might even allow me to get out at B/E, but that's more down to luck than following the rules and remembering Guppy. Where's the gap?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #282
  • Edited 3:12am Feb 4, 2022 2:50am | Edited 3:12am
This feels like a special moment. Enjoy!

Illustrations to follow, comments welcome.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Walvekar trading system 4 Feb 22.pdf   310 KB | 530 downloads
  • #283
  • Feb 4, 2022 4:35am Feb 4, 2022 4:35am
Quoting Spudfan
This feels like a special moment. Enjoy! Illustrations to follow, comments welcome. {image}
thank you very much sir for your time and efforts. i am truely grateful
  • #284
  • Feb 4, 2022 4:55am Feb 4, 2022 4:55am
Quoting Spudfan
This feels like a special moment. Enjoy! Illustrations to follow, comments welcome. {image}
Thank you a lot guys for your work!
So do you basically use Guppy's standard settings for identifying LT trend?
Yesterday Dr Rajesh noticed that a cross of 50 and 200 EMA can work for that (my basic premise). I've also noticed that EMA-channel crossing EMA-50 can also show trend.
  • #285
  • Feb 4, 2022 5:19am Feb 4, 2022 5:19am
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} If I had used basic Guppy theory here I would never have entered this trade. Where's that emoji for hitting my head on the desk? The remaining portion of this trade still survives, and it might even allow me to get out at B/E, but that's more down to luck than following the rules and remembering Guppy. Where's the gap?
I have added the short-term EMAs to my chart in a dull colour so they don't clutter things up. If you look closely you'll see them on my chart.

The chart shows we have a pullback that has become a longish period of consolidation. Now we potentially have a breakout candle (waiting for the close still) and the RSIs are all doing the right thing. I might have been tempted to go for this, if the breakout candle closes below the channel, because I know breakouts from consolidation are usually strong. But if you look closely, those dull red lines show the S/T EMAs are still mixed in with the L/T ones, so nothing like a strong trend, even though the technicals are positive. I'm going to keep those S/T lines on my charts so I don't forget.

What I'm realising more clearly is that the method that walvekarraje has developed reacts strongly as soon as a trend shows weakness. To me it seems his rules for taking partial profit/loss or exiting 100% are strict. But there's a reason for that - we don't want to be messing with poorly performing trends. My tendency would be to wait, give the trade room to breathe as they say. Well maybe that's why I lose a lot of the time. Maybe I'm too much of an optimist.

But now we are looking at small losses or B/Es early on in a trade, but if the trend shows it is strong, we stay in and potentially for a decent amount. Does that sound like a fair assessment?
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  • #286
  • Edited 7:00am Feb 4, 2022 6:41am | Edited 7:00am
where is the breakout ? where is the pullback ? no place to draw fib.....
if this is H4 chart, the price is chopping around the LT guppy for many days. there is no trend. i will never trade this chart on guppy rules.
to trade this.... draw trendlines above and below. it will form a descending triangle. wait for break of trendlines, after that wait for pullback to its previous support area (which will become resistance after trendline break) and then trade the continuation.
  • #287
  • Feb 4, 2022 7:14am Feb 4, 2022 7:14am
Quoting walvekarraje
where is the breakout ? where is the pullback ? no place to draw fib..... if this is H4 chart, the price is chopping around the LT guppy for many days. there is no trend. i will never trade this chart on guppy rules. to trade this.... draw trendlines above and below. it will form a descending triangle. wait for break of trendlines, after that wait for pullback to its previous support area (which will become resistance after trendline break) and then trade the continuation.
Here you go ...

But it was just an example showing that by including the ST group it is clearly not a trade, even though most of the other elements are in place.

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  • #288
  • Edited Feb 5, 2022 8:10am Feb 4, 2022 8:29pm | Edited Feb 5, 2022 8:10am
Yesterday’s discussion made me stop and think that we could make better use of the Guppy MMA system. We said in the Walvekar document that

  1. All L/T EMAs must be evenly spread. This is the first criterion. if this is not fulfilled there is no trade.
  2. There should be a clear gap between the S/T and L/T groups of EMAs.

How better to make sure those criteria are met than to use the GMMAs uncluttered and without any other distractions? Some while back I made a “GMMA plain” template but never used it. Now I think it might be useful.

On the chart a long downtrend ends on the left. It doesn’t take much effort to see that we have a no go area after that and it’s only after the vertical line that we should start paying attention. That might be a good time to flip over to the standard Walvekar template. Probably flipping between the two would help keep focus. It's something to explore in the coming week.

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  • #289
  • Feb 4, 2022 8:37pm Feb 4, 2022 8:37pm
Quoting walvekarraje
where is the breakout ? where is the pullback ? no place to draw fib..... if this is H4 chart, the price is chopping around the LT guppy for many days. there is no trend. i will never trade this chart on guppy rules. to trade this.... draw trendlines above and below. it will form a descending triangle. wait for break of trendlines, after that wait for pullback to its previous support area (which will become resistance after trendline break) and then trade the continuation.
This is the plain GMMA version of the chart that walvekarraje was commenting on. Clearly, there's no trade for us here.
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  • #290
  • Feb 4, 2022 10:24pm Feb 4, 2022 10:24pm
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} This is the plain GMMA version of the chart that walvekarraje was commenting on. Clearly, there's no trade for us here. {image}
Sir,
a request
make the same template with MA IN COLOR indicator i have shared.
it will help your analysis of guppy mma to a great extent.
  • #291
  • Edited 2:16am Feb 5, 2022 1:58am | Edited 2:16am
Quoting walvekarraje
{quote} Sir, a request make the same template with MA IN COLOR indicator i have shared. it will help your analysis of guppy mma to a great extent.
Thank you for your concern.

I tend to get distracted by having too many things on the chart, as you saw with that CADJPY example I used. So for me it's useful to take a step back and look just at the big picture with nothing to distract from that. For that reason I specifically want nothing on the "plain Guppy" template but the Guppy lines, not even price bars, because the Guppy system is what lies at the heart of what we are doing and I think, or expect, that starting with the plain Guppy chart will help me see the formation of a proper trend more clearly.

That is not to say that the Walvekar template (if I may call it that) is not useful. Far from it, and I will be using both templates to get the best value from each. Once I am satisfied that a decent trend is in place I can go to the more detailed chart and see what the RSIs are doing and where price is in relation to the channel and such like. I will follow this course during next week and see how it goes.

I hope this helps explain and puts your mind at ease.
  • #292
  • Feb 5, 2022 8:07am Feb 5, 2022 8:07am
I've just been looking around and saw that the GBPCHF pair looks interesting on the plain chart. It shows a strong new trend, a sharp pullback to the HT EMAs and then a resumption of the trend. The LT lines have separated and there's a clear gap between the LT and ST groups. On the plain chart it is very clear. (Please scroll down).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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However, the Walvekar chart shows a problem. Apart from the initial breakout candle, the rest have all closed inside the channel. That didn't show up on the plain chart. (For interest, note how the pullback extends so precisely to the 50% level).

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  • #293
  • Edited 12:21pm Feb 5, 2022 12:06pm | Edited 12:21pm
Which would you say is the 1st pullback (that is the best one to trade)?

EDIT: I think it's the 2nd pullback, because on the 1st there was no compression of LT EMAs. Pity.
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  • #294
  • Feb 5, 2022 1:02pm Feb 5, 2022 1:02pm
Quoting oohoo
Which would you say is the 1st pullback (that is the best one to trade)? EDIT: I think it's the 2nd pullback, because on the 1st there was no compression of LT EMAs. Pity. {image}
They are both pullbacks, no doubt, and both tradable, but the Walvekar method calls for pullbacks to the LT group or at least to the 50% fibo level, so not the first one, but the second one touches the top level of the LT group, so yes, it would be the second one. I think it's actually better not to have compression of the LT group, but I would prefer walvekarraje to make a call on this question you are asking as he has spent many years working this system out.
  • #295
  • Feb 6, 2022 6:57am Feb 6, 2022 6:57am
Quoting oohoo
Which would you say is the 1st pullback (that is the best one to trade)? EDIT: I think it's the 2nd pullback, because on the 1st there was no compression of LT EMAs. Pity. {image}
hi oohoo,
when your fast ema has crossed above slow ema , that is your change in treng. after that, one or few candles closing in the channel or preferably below the channel is first pullback ( you have correctly marked). after that the first candle closing above the channel is your entry candle. this candle should be close to the LT group. closer the better. also there is no compression of the LT group. so i will definately go long on the first pullback you have marked. a if you draw a fib i am sure you will find retracement between 38.2% - 50%.

"on the 1st there was no compression of LT EMAs. Pity."...... no compression is our first criteria and a good sign.
and same is true for second pullback.
  • #296
  • Feb 6, 2022 7:29am Feb 6, 2022 7:29am
Quoting walvekarraje
{quote} hi oohoo, when your fast ema has crossed above slow ema , that is your change in treng. after that, one or few candles closing in the channel or preferably below the channel is first pullback ( you have correctly marked). after that the first candle closing above the channel is your entry candle. this candle should be close to the LT group. closer the better. also there is no compression of the LT group. so i will definately go long on the first pullback you have marked. a if you draw a fib i am sure you will find retracement between 38.2%...
Thank you! You have confirmed what I thought. I'd be willing to try and take only first pullbacks for the time being.
  • #297
  • Feb 6, 2022 7:31am Feb 6, 2022 7:31am
let me try to explain the logic.
we are tought to consider previous highs and lows as support and resistance areas. but these are static areas or zones. but in a strong trend these are easily broken and it is unlikely that the price will never return to these zones in near future.
the LT guppys are dynamic areas of support. a compression means the support is weakening, expansion means the support is getting stronger.
similarly the 10 ema channel is our dynamic support and candle closing beyond the channel without guppy compression means that the existing trend is strong and will continue..... similarly rsi crossing 50, macd crossing zero, tdi cross, moving average cross over........all indicate areas of dynamic support.
the reason for not using ST guppys is that they are so close to each other that it is difficult to interprete them. the 10 ema channel is far easier and clearer for analysis.
  • #298
  • Feb 6, 2022 7:32am Feb 6, 2022 7:32am
Do you have an idea why this entry would have failed? (I didn't take the trade, just researching).
It's 1st pullback. 50% retrace is in place. RSI cross in place.
I don't mean to say that all trades must be winners, maybe it's just one of those non-winners? Or was there something about the setup, which should have alerted me?
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  • #299
  • Feb 6, 2022 7:53am Feb 6, 2022 7:53am
Quoting oohoo
Do you have an idea why this entry would have failed? (I didn't take the trade, just researching). It's 1st pullback. 50% retrace is in place. RSI cross in place. I don't mean to say that all trades must be winners, maybe it's just one of those non-winners? Or was there something about the setup, which should have alerted me? {image}
I'd be interested to see the standard Guppy chart for this instrument. Could you do that?
  • #300
  • Feb 6, 2022 8:02am Feb 6, 2022 8:02am
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} Thank you for your concern. I tend to get distracted by having too many things on the chart.
sir, the use of color ma is th make reading the chart easier. just a change in color will tell you compression or expansion long before it is evident to naked eye otherwise.
change in channel color will make entry or exit easier.
take a note of the yellow color on the line this,is the only leading indicator i know. change from red to yellow to blue...... points to the exact single candle where uptrend is resuming. (and it is non repainting..... all our indicators are, except zigzag)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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also note the rsi in color.
one glance at the chart and you know what is happening
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