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The Swamp

  • #95,201
  • Feb 4, 2022 10:52am Feb 4, 2022 10:52am
Mario Draghi's "Whatever it takes" versus Christine Lagarde "Believe me"...

Believe me, as soon as it is required and the conditions are satisfied, we will act because it is our duty and we shall do so.
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I am who I am
  • #95,202
  • Feb 4, 2022 10:56am Feb 4, 2022 10:56am
Quoting Connors
{quote} Two last shuts I have 1.1502 & 1.1518. In case day closes above 1.1442, have to bail.
I wont list everything. the main 2 here i have from the past are, 1492 and 1447. For large closes. The stuff bullish is smaller than these. Since the year closed below 1447 and 1492. I have to respect them. At the same time the year closed above 1208 and 1331.. it sucks.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,203
  • Feb 4, 2022 11:47am Feb 4, 2022 11:47am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I wont list everything. the main 2 here i have from the past are, 1492 and 1447. For large closes. The stuff bullish is smaller than these. Since the year closed below 1447 and 1492. I have to respect them. At the same time the year closed above 1208 and 1331.. it sucks.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,204
  • Feb 4, 2022 12:11pm Feb 4, 2022 12:11pm
Bears suck.. A beautiful candle with no follow-up.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,205
  • Edited 1:10pm Feb 4, 2022 1:00pm | Edited 1:10pm
oil looks as bullish as all hell,, It may drop soon. 93.14 I dont know. Charts are skewed since oil went to negative. Add 93.14, with 7 green weekly candles and it may pull back. A shallow 6% pullback to 87.54 may be coming
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,206
  • Feb 4, 2022 1:42pm Feb 4, 2022 1:42pm
[quote=Connors;13884014]{quote} Two last shuts I have 1.1502 & 1.1518. In case day closes above 1.1442, have to bail.[/quote]

Have to cancel once again.

I need to see Monday open. 1.1520s seem very possible, but that doesn't get me to 1.1120s.
I need a mid target, hopefully by Tuesday morning.

Many of us are butt hurt I know, but it is a part of the business. In the end, we are not working for a charity. We are here for the money.

Enjoy your weekend with your loved ones, without thinking about what has happened. Remember, they have no fault with your business hence they have absolutely no gain.

Hug the love all around you. Feel it. Enjoy your most favorite dish.

Have a great weekend!
  • #95,207
  • Edited 2:32pm Feb 4, 2022 1:57pm | Edited 2:32pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I wont list everything. the main 2 here i have from the past are, 1492 and 1447. For large closes. The stuff bullish is smaller than these. Since the year closed below 1447 and 1492. I have to respect them. At the same time the year closed above 1208 and 1331.. it sucks.
What disappointed me is, I didn't see any "hot stove" affect. They seem to have a plan. I have been in the business for several years and the engulfing that has appeared yesterday, I am sure you know what that means. The move exactly began at year close, and that can not be a coincidence.

Your 1.1735 is now very possible. And like you mentioned several times, I don't expect the bears to return "at least" before a 4H close 1.1369.

Anyway, thank you Gator for all the hard work you put in - which you don't have to - for us who are obviously in need.

Enjoy your barbecue with your buddies & family over the weekend if you are having one. Love you..
  • #95,208
  • Feb 4, 2022 3:36pm Feb 4, 2022 3:36pm
Quoting Connors
{quote} What disappointed me is, I didn't see any "hot stove" affect. They seem to have a plan. I have been in the business for several years and the engulfing that has appeared yesterday, I am sure you know what that means. The move exactly began at year close, and that can not be a coincidence. Your 1.1735 is now very possible. And like you mentioned several times, I don't expect the bears to return "at least" before a 4H close 1.1369. Anyway, thank you Gator for all the hard work you put in - which you don't have to - for us who are obviously...
Nov close freaked me out. I thought maybe a anomaly because of the new virus. Then it happened again dec year close. I ran my mouth to nauseum here about a bounce. It made it to the same place as yesterday's high 1483. Then dropped and made a new low. Everybody had their bags packed for the South. I luckily closed shorts before the bounce (too early). I also longed the bounce (closed too early at 1208). The common denominator of both moves is 1302. Dead center is 1302. 30, 67, 145 pips above the high 1483 has merit. 1492 is R to me. The first time here 1477 had merit.

1492 with closes above greatly improves odds for 1735.. But you know it often drops Sunday and Monday. 1302 has a shot..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,209
  • Feb 4, 2022 3:52pm Feb 4, 2022 3:52pm
1302 or 1664 should be coming.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,210
  • Feb 4, 2022 3:53pm Feb 4, 2022 3:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
oil looks as bullish as all hell,, It may drop soon. 93.14 I dont know. Charts are skewed since oil went to negative. Add 93.14, with 7 green weekly candles and it may pull back. A shallow 6% pullback to 87.54 may be coming {image} {image} {image}
1.4% drop so far.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,211
  • Feb 4, 2022 4:05pm Feb 4, 2022 4:05pm
at the last minute Bears came in to close below my level. 1.1447.8.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,212
  • Feb 4, 2022 5:51pm Feb 4, 2022 5:51pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} wages go up .6% on a 3.9% rate. The 199k is BS it will be revised higher like the past 2 months. Its just more people starting a business are not counted. In the employed category with lapse time. They will be in the revisions later. .6% is inflation. The labor market is very tight. We have a labor shortage in the millions. See pa acting opposite? Don't stand in front that.
Quoting gatorinla
unemployment 3.9%. income up .6%. This is not bad. More people are starting a business. They won't show up yet. The most telling number is 3.9%/
All the news reports were saying NFP would be bad. LOL. These people are supposed to be experts.

We will need to import people from Mexico to fill the millions of vacant jobs.

How do people continue to watch these morons who are always wrong? The stufication of America.

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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,213
  • Feb 4, 2022 6:24pm Feb 4, 2022 6:24pm
Quoting Connors
{quote} What disappointed me is, I didn't see any "hot stove" affect. They seem to have a plan. I have been in the business for several years and the engulfing that has appeared yesterday, I am sure you know what that means. The move exactly began at year close, and that can not be a coincidence. Your 1.1735 is now very possible. And like you mentioned several times, I don't expect the bears to return "at least" before a 4H close 1.1369. Anyway, thank you Gator for all the hard work you put in - which you don't have to - for us...
Everybody is confused. The ECB is bullshitting the world being hawkish (bluffing). Yeah they will raise rates at some point. But they are royally screwed. The FED in on the brink to raise here. That's going to force Americans to buy a little less. And to a greater degree. They will buy less discretionary items like European vacations, or European cars. Americans will pay more in interest on CC, homes, and car loans. America has inflation too. Things are already costing more here also. Oil is on the high side. All recessions in the U.S. since 1970 started with a rise in oil prices. Today higher oil hurts the U.S. less than the past 47 years. It hurts Europe to a greater degree. Sure the ECB can raise rates, or just bluff. The choice is raise rates, and hurt exports. Or bluff and hope it eases inflation. Hurting exports by raising rates, will hurt employment. Not having a job puts less demand on stuff. Yeah, that would curve inflation some. The choice is not a easy one. We haven't even added the higher petro cost due Russia's threat. Even without a invasion, things could get bad quick. The economy is fragile in Europe. Raising has a lot of negative affects. Its not so easy to raise rates. Raising could destroy a lot of the E economy. Tourism is already on a death watch. The auto exporters is already hurting with lack of chips.
BMW will just expand in North America.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,214
  • Feb 4, 2022 6:36pm Feb 4, 2022 6:36pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Everybody is confused. The ECB is bullshitting the world being hawkish (bluffing). Yeah they will raise rates at some point. But they are royally screwed. The FED in on the brink to raise here. That's going to force Americans to buy a little less. And to a greater degree. They will buy less discretionary items like European vacations, or European cars. Americans will pay more in interest on CC, homes, and car loans. America has inflation too. Things are already costing more here also. Oil is on the high side. All recessions in the U.S. since...
Economics 101. Cheap labor means nothing. When the energy cost is the number cost. In building heavy industrial machinery. Raw materials is second. Labor is down the line. Plant like Boeing are in Seattle because of a Damn that supplies electricity. Ford built where he did because it takes 2 tons of coal, and 1 ton of iron, to make a ton of steel.

https://businessfacilities.com/2021/...tion.%E2%80%9D

BMW Manufacturing will be expanding its operations in Spartanburg County, SC, with the construction of a new $100 million logistics center. The facility, which will be located on 120 acres off Freeman Farm Road, will enhance BMW’s logistics operations supplying parts to the company’s 7-million-square-foot factory in Greer, SC.
“For nearly three decades, BMW has called South Carolina its second home. This expansion in our logistics operation represents our continued commitment to this state, and it will prepare Plant Spartanburg for the future,” said BMW Manufacturing Co. President and CEO Robert Engelhorn. “The new warehouse will allow us to consolidate our logistics processes as well as implement efficiency measures for a more sustainable logistics operation.”
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,215
  • Feb 5, 2022 11:39am Feb 5, 2022 11:39am
Seems there's a setup on CHFJPY.
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  • #95,216
  • Edited 6:53pm Feb 5, 2022 6:42pm | Edited 6:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
at the last minute Bears came in to close below my level. 1.1447.8. {image}
This drop at the last minute screws me up some. Its either going to break 1492 or not. Had it closed above 1447.8. Odds to test or break 1492 were better. That would make a bullish move a bit more clear. Odds of higher would be better. What sucks to throw some doubt is. The close below 1447.8 at the last minute sucks. I mean when you look at a tick chart it was down to seconds. It dropped below in the last seconds. I leaned less bearish since the Nov close. More neutral/slightly bullish when the year was above 1331. Not trend change bullish but 1447 tested or higher. This last seconds move. Has improved the odds of some retrace to 1369, 1331 or 1302. The odds improved at the last second. Maybe it will gap above 1447 on the open.

Pa is probably bullish above 1302 1331 1369 and 1406. Pa is probably bearish below 1492, balanced high* at *H1483/M1331/L1123 and bearish below 1447.8. The close below 1447.8 favors 1406 or less. Between levels it may range, until something breaks with a close below/above. Then it has a tendency to go to the next level (at least 1/2 way) in the break direction. 1483 held R (no break) so pa went to 1447.8 it broke early w/o holding. At the end of the day it closed below 1447.8.

balanced high* at *H1483/M1331/L1123 using this formula is not so much opinion. It's a provable high or low. Backed with the most recent close. None of these are dynamic levels. They are factual. If pa gets to 1406 it maybe light support, below light R. After 1292.5 sub level. 1367/69 year close. 1331 big level. 1302 normal attraction.

It's a game of inches. What it does has meaning if you can see it. And sometimes you wont know why things happen. Nobody sees it all beforehand. With good MM you can be right 30% of the time and make money. PA has moves within moves because of the time frames. That's why it rarely drops/rises more than 1% a day for more than a few days. Even the move over the past 6 days is just 3.26%.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,217
  • Feb 5, 2022 8:02pm Feb 5, 2022 8:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} This drop at the last minute screws me up some. Its either going to break 1492 or not. Had it closed above 1447.8. Odds to test or break 1492 were better. That would make a bullish move a bit more clear. Odds of higher would be better. What sucks to throw some doubt is. The close below 1447.8 at the last minute sucks. I mean when you look at a tick chart it was down to seconds. It dropped below in the last seconds. I leaned less bearish since the Nov close. More neutral/slightly bullish when the year was above 1331. Not trend change bullish...
On my end bias for EURUSD is downwards.
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  • #95,218
  • Edited 4:11am Feb 6, 2022 4:00am | Edited 4:11am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} This drop at the last minute screws me up some. Its either going to break 1492 or not. Had it closed above 1447.8. Odds to test or break 1492 were better. That would make a bullish move a bit more clear. Odds of higher would be better. What sucks to throw some doubt is. The close below 1447.8 at the last minute sucks. I mean when you look at a tick chart it was down to seconds. It dropped below in the last seconds. I leaned less bearish since the Nov close. More neutral/slightly bullish when the year was above 1331. Not trend change bullish...
Nov closed above 1331, Year, Dec above 1331 (bullside). Jan was the first to close below 1331 (bearside). Pa later tested 1123s (LL) to bounce to 1483, the previous high area. It has to break the point, and close to rise. Friday's high is slightly higher than the Jan high. It stayed above 1447 most of the late day. Before dropping below 1447 in the last seconds. It did this after January's high also (dropped below 1447 before close). The first time in Jan 1477 was where I thought it may top. In Jan the test of 1123 had yet to happen. Before 1123 hit, 1335 was the pivot point. Today that pivot is below 1331. I have the same ma is most of you indicating some trend change to bullish. I have the year close above 1331. I have current pa above that same year close. On all of this ma evidence, I say its bullish. But on the actual closes we have a LL. We have a pivot below the key 1331 now. We never had a close below 1331 pivot, till Jan's close. Atm it has a pivot below 1331. It has made a LL. That close below 1447.8 really has me thinking about how this developed. I was ready to go all in on a new high before the close. That has changed to more neutral. I posted 1447 1406 1369/67, 1331 1302. as some possible bounces. I dont call 148x a double top yet, but if we start closing below 1302. It looks to challenge 1208. 1208 is a support for month closes, just like 1331. But 1208 is smaller, its backed by BB ma at 1208 too. So if 148x does hold, and pa does make some day/week closes below 1302. A month close below 1208 should be required for a fall. Even 1123 should be done. If 1208 is broken now. It may have momentum to drop and speed past 1123
. After this 360 pip climb. Unless the EU can break out of the 148x /1492 box. I would follow these less than celebrated paths.
Bulls need to keep climbing. I note ECB hawkness as likely BS because the politics of inflation. At least early on in the press. When the French farmers throw tomatoes then it may be addressed. French farmers sell their tomatoes for a higher price during inflation
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,219
  • Feb 6, 2022 5:45am Feb 6, 2022 5:45am
Quoting Connors
{quote} What disappointed me is, I didn't see any "hot stove" affect. They seem to have a plan. I have been in the business for several years and the engulfing that has appeared yesterday, I am sure you know what that means. The move exactly began at year close, and that can not be a coincidence. Your 1.1735 is now very possible. And like you mentioned several times, I don't expect the bears to return "at least" before a 4H close 1.1369. Anyway, thank you Gator for all the hard work you put in - which you don't have to - for us who are obviously...
1477 stopped 1767 norm last time. This time it got further on the newer rung level. That 1447 at the last second screwed up things in conflict. I will post the other, its favors bulls more than this one. But 1447 SOS
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,220
  • Feb 6, 2022 5:56am Feb 6, 2022 5:56am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1477 stopped 1767 norm last time. This time it got further on the newer rung level. That 1447 at the last second screwed up things in conflict. I will post the other, its favors bulls more than this one. But 1447 SOS
The big number 1447.8 and 1492 still had this Friday. This can change. Or the reject could push it to 1302.. From there maybe bulls retry or go to test 1208.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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