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Guppy's Multi-Moving Average (GMMA)

  • #261
  • Edited 11:18am Feb 2, 2022 11:07am | Edited 11:18am
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} Another nugget. This will help me put together the section in walvekarraje's collected writings on managing the trade.
Do you think you could paste here what you've got so far? Dr's posts are scattered around, and I'm trying to get a TV template for this.
Incidentally, I'm experimenting with a similar system. I use EMA-50 in a clear trend as a sensitive point waiting for a reaction there. I'm just not quite sure what the trigger should be (sometimes entering the 10-EMA hi/low works).

Something along these lines.
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  • #262
  • Feb 2, 2022 11:52am Feb 2, 2022 11:52am
Quoting oohoo
{quote} Do you think you could paste here what you've got so far? Dr's posts are scattered around, and I'm trying to get a TV template for this. Incidentally, I'm experimenting with a similar system. I use EMA-50 in a clear trend as a sensitive point waiting for a reaction there. I'm just not quite sure what the trigger should be (sometimes entering the 10-EMA hi/low works). Something along these lines. {image}
Let me tidy it up a bit and I'll post it tomorrow. I was hoping to put in illustrations throughout, but that can come later I guess, all of us here will be able to find examples without too much trouble.
  • #263
  • Feb 3, 2022 4:00am Feb 3, 2022 4:00am
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} Let me tidy it up a bit and I'll post it tomorrow. I was hoping to put in illustrations throughout, but that can come later I guess, all of us here will be able to find examples without too much trouble.
Update: I'm waiting for walvekarraje to comment and assist with the document. It's his work and I don't want to misrepresent him. He hasn't received my PM yet.
  • #264
  • Feb 3, 2022 5:03am Feb 3, 2022 5:03am
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} Update: I'm waiting for walvekarraje to comment and assist with the document. It's his work and I don't want to misrepresent him. He hasn't received my PM yet.
i have sent you my email.
  • #265
  • Feb 3, 2022 5:34am Feb 3, 2022 5:34am
Quoting walvekarraje
{quote} i have sent you my email.
Thank you. My work on that document has really helped clarify things for me.

Here is a trade I am now in, USDCAD H4. The chart explains it all. Next will be to set targets and manage the trade - it's all described in the document

I'm a bit concerned that the long-term EMAs have flattened out a bit, but walvekarraje has a plan to get out of a trade quickly if things do head south. I must just go and read up on that bit.
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  • #266
  • Feb 3, 2022 6:06am Feb 3, 2022 6:06am
I placed this trade yesterday, a bit prematurely, perhaps, but it caught today's big move. I have just taken partial profits at T1 and moved to B/E. Will now hope to get to T2, but from here it's a free trade. This chart illustrates how walvekarraje recommends using the fibo tool to set targets, drawing it from the tip of the breakout candle down to the recent swing low.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #267
  • Feb 3, 2022 7:26am Feb 3, 2022 7:26am
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} Update: I'm waiting for walvekarraje to comment and assist with the document. It's his work and I don't want to misrepresent him. He hasn't received my PM yet.
going through your document sir. very very well summarised. few corrections, give me some time
  • #268
  • Feb 3, 2022 8:26am Feb 3, 2022 8:26am
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} Thank you. My work on that document has really helped clarify things for me. Here is a trade I am now in, USDCAD H4. The chart explains it all. Next will be to set targets and manage the trade - it's all described in the document I'm a bit concerned that the long-term EMAs have flattened out a bit, but walvekarraje has a plan to get out of a trade quickly if things do head south. I must just go and read up on that bit. {image}
i always apply fibo in the direction of the trend. so your 0 level should be down and 100 level up. ( non conventional but thats how i do it )

as long as pullback is inside the LT group and subsequent continuation pattern, the fibo levels should not matter.

also a higher high and higher low is clearly seen on your chart. so this should be a good entry.
  • #269
  • Feb 3, 2022 8:42am Feb 3, 2022 8:42am
Quoting oohoo
{quote} Do you think you could paste here what you've got so far? Dr's posts are scattered around, and I'm trying to get a TV template for this. Incidentally, I'm experimenting with a similar system. I use EMA-50 in a clear trend as a sensitive point waiting for a reaction there. I'm just not quite sure what the trigger should be (sometimes entering the 10-EMA hi/low works). Something along these lines. {image}
hi oohoo,
in your chart, ema 50 crossing below ema 200 is start of your downtrend.
after that the bearish candle closing below the ema channel is your entry candle ( 5 th candle after the 19 vertical line)
after that the same rules apply what we are discussing here.

but if you delete the ema channel, i cant guess how the rest of the indicators will help you to enter the trade.( off course there must be some rules)
no offence intended , i am just trying to stress the importance of the channel.
  • #270
  • Feb 3, 2022 9:24am Feb 3, 2022 9:24am
Quoting walvekarraje
{quote} hi oohoo, in your chart, ema 50 crossing below ema 200 is start of your downtrend. after that the bearish candle closing below the ema channel is your entry candle ( 5 th candle after the 19 vertical line) after that the same rules apply what we are discussing here. but if you delete the ema channel, i cant guess how the rest of the indicators will help you to enter the trade.( off course there must be some rules) no offence intended , i am just trying to stress the importance of the channel.
Right, I was thinking that waiting for the EMA-50 touch is too long and the trend gets exhausted by then.
In this case, how would you formalize the pullback - price closing above the EMA-channel?
[I have more indicators than I need for I may notice sth interesting eventually - exploratory interest so to say.]
  • #271
  • Feb 3, 2022 9:47am Feb 3, 2022 9:47am
Quoting oohoo
{quote} how would you formalize the pullback - price closing above the EMA-channel?
all candles after 50/200 cross closing inside channel is consolidation/distribution . first candle to close below 10 ema low, small upper wick, zero lower wick... indicates a strong bearish candle.... continuation pattern. rest is to trail SL on 10 ema high etc etc....
  • #272
  • Feb 3, 2022 10:04am Feb 3, 2022 10:04am
Quoting walvekarraje
{quote} all candles after 50/200 cross closing inside channel is consolidation/distribution . first candle to close below 10 ema low, small upper wick, zero lower wick... indicates a strong bearish candle.... continuation pattern. rest is to trail SL on 10 ema high etc etc....
Great advice! Will be on a lookout for such opportunities too.
  • #273
  • Feb 3, 2022 10:05am Feb 3, 2022 10:05am
Walvekarraje's method deserves a dedicated thread probably.
  • #274
  • Feb 3, 2022 10:06am Feb 3, 2022 10:06am
Quoting oohoo
{quote} Great advice! Will be on a lookout for such opportunities too.
thanks for being a part of discussion, i really appreciate it.
  • #275
  • Edited 12:16pm Feb 3, 2022 10:17am | Edited 12:16pm
Quoting walvekarraje
I started trading GUPPY MMA method after reading this thread itself. over a period of time i made few modifications to suit my trading personality. especially the entry and exits. By profession i am a cancer surgeon, so cant spend too much time on screen. i cannot use EA as no broker in india allow thading via MT4 platform. Here is my chart and templete with all indicators. {image}{file}{file}{file}{file}{file} {file} {file} {file}
just want to say
"RAJESH MA IN COLOR" 2, 2A are not my indicators. the original MA IN COLOR indicator does not allow to change the line style, so i just changed it in the code for my convinence and renamed it. all respects to the original coder mr robert hill.
i didnt realise it while posting the indi and templete. i am sorry.



'
  • #276
  • Feb 3, 2022 11:43am Feb 3, 2022 11:43am
Walvekarraje, I would be grateful if you could comment on this chart.

We have a new trend and then a fairly deep pullback - it went beyond the LT EMAs is that a problem? - yet it didn't breach the 61.8 fibo level. What is your approach to this situation? What guidance can you give when we get a deep pullback?

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  • #277
  • Feb 3, 2022 11:50am Feb 3, 2022 11:50am
Still waiting ...

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  • #278
  • Feb 3, 2022 7:41pm Feb 3, 2022 7:41pm
Quoting Spudfan
Walvekarraje, I would be grateful if you could comment on this chart. We have a new trend and then a fairly deep pullback - it went beyond the LT EMAs is that a problem? - yet it didn't breach the 61.8 fibo level. What is your approach to this situation? What guidance can you give when we get a deep pullback? {image}
LT group too compressed. first criteria not satisfied.
better to wait for next pullback and a good trend is established.
  • #279
  • Feb 3, 2022 9:06pm Feb 3, 2022 9:06pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Analyse LT guppy
1) no compression
2) direction maintained
this indicates strong strength in trend

A in the image above : young breakouts are weak, with high probablity of trend collapse.( star in the image)
The second arrow in image is LT compression......the line indicates direction and formation of a trend.
the side arrow in the image is where the price action comes back to LT guppy, without causing compression and bounces back into the trend ( guppy calls this Rally Cap). THIS is our entry point. we identify this by the candle crossing our 10 ema channel.

Guppy says " No trend can survive without the support from long term traders "

i hope this answers your querry Spudfan . Analyse the LT guppy first.
  • #280
  • Edited 1:02am Feb 4, 2022 12:38am | Edited 1:02am
Quoting walvekarraje
{quote} LT group too compressed. first criteria not satisfied. better to wait for next pullback and a good trend is established.
Back to Guppy basics! Forgot about that. Perhaps we should put a comment along these lines in the document we are working on.

Guppy also specifies that a clear gap must open up between the ST and LT groups. At present on this pair there's no gap at all. So a quick flip across to my "Guppy" template would have answered my question without having to ask you.
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