Nordling's Legacy - Live Fundamental Trading

I have opened another account put $5,000 and attached my explorer, let's see where can I take the $5,000. This is the one I shared earlier in the week. Let's make money, trade safe.

Looks great! Congratulations buddy!

Finally people in FF get to see some real people instead of fakers.

CAD held rates 0.25%. But I am still bullish on CAD. Waiting for a pullback on CADJPY to enter a buy. They are looking to hike so next meeting, they will probably hike. But they held the rates on 0.25% so that is still bullish on CAD.

Closed AUDUSD shorts in profit:



Still holding EG, GU, GA positions.

US GDP Growth Rate come out 6.9%, exceeding the estimates by 1.4%. Hawkish FOMC followed by a monstrous growth rate definitely boosted USD. But in the longer term, that growth rate can damage the currency's value. After that GDP data release, USD now ranks 6th out of 6 currencies in my data sheet. So i think now it's okay to buy NZDUSD and GBPUSD, since RBNZ and BoE is also ahead of the FED when it comes to policy normalisation.

Opened NZDUSD buy:

Wow, congrats on the profits mate!

What do you mean by policy normalisation?

Ending Quantitative Easing, hiking the rates, trying to fight off inflation until it drops around 2%

So we can basically say RBNZ and BOE is more hawkish than FED

Gotcha! Thanks for the info mate

Here's my data sheet and the current rankings. Try to match the best ones against the worst ones in both sections, otherwise it may not work properly.

Whoa isn't this data sheet your secret sauce?? Thanks for sharing this mate, I know it's valuable to you

Haha it is buddy, but writing in a forum is all about sharing your knowledge with others isn't it?

You are welcome buddy, i hope it will be useful

Yes, and also the occasional argument

Mate, I'm almost embarrassed at how long it took me to figure out your data sheet haha. But I have some things to clarify, I'll message you instead for those if you've got the time

Ahaha arguments are actually helpful if it's about the markets. Think of this place as an office, co-workers will definitely argue about how to get the job done from time to time. But of course it is useless when things get personal

I actually shared it in the first page too but this one is more accurate. Fundamentals 2.0

Sure buddy, text me anytime! I would be happy to answer your questions.

Week Ahead
US jobs report will take a spotlight next week followed by worldwide manufacturing and services PMI surveys and Eurozone GDP and inflation numbers. Also, central banks in the UK, Australia, Euro Area and Brazil will be deciding on monetary policy, while the OPEC+ meeting is expected to offer guidance into the production plans from March. The earnings season will also be in the spotlight, with GM, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon and Ford due to report.

Next week, investors will get an update on the strength of the US labor market as the impact of the rapid spread of the omicron that led to more shutdowns and an increase in hospitalizations will now become more clear. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 200 thousand after rising by 199 thousand in December, the smallest employment gain in 12 months. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 3.9% and the earnings growth is expected to remain elevated. JOLTs job openings and quits, ADP report and productivity and labor costs for Q4 will also be in the spotlight as well as the ISM reports for both manufacturing and services index, final Markit PMIs, Chicago PMI and factory orders.

Meanwhile, the earnings season continues with Advanced Micro, Exxon Mobil, GM, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Honeywell, Ford, PayPal, and Wynn Resorts due to report quarterly results.

Elsewhere in America, the central bank of Brazil will likely raise its policy interest rate by another 150 bps to 10.75%, bringing borrowing costs to the highest level since April 2017 and aiming to curb rising inflation. Key data to follow include Canada employment figures, producer prices, monthly GDP, and Ivey and Markit PMI surveys; Mexico fourth-quarter GDP figures, business and consumer morale and Markit Manufacturing PMI; and Brazil foreign trade, industrial production, producer prices and Markit PMIs.

In Europe, all eyes will be on the BoE and the ECB monetary policy decisions on Thursday. The Bank of England is largely expected to increase the key interest rate by a quarter-percentage point to 0.5%, after a 15bps hike in December, as the inflation surged to 1992 highs of 5.4%. The ECB however, will likely leave interest rates unchanged but investors will look for any comments on the inflation outlook. Markets now anticipate a 10bps hike to the deposit rate by the October meeting only. Meanwhile, preliminary GDP growth rates for the Eurozone and Italy and early estimates for Euro Area, Germany, Spain, France inflation will provide an update on the economic recovery and price pressures, at a time the omicron coronavirus variant started to spread in the European continent. Other important economic releases include Germany unemployment and retail sales, Euro Area unemployment, UK consumer credit and mortgage indicators and final Markit PMIs.

In Asia-Pacific, the lack of Chinese indicators will stand out, as celebrations for the Lunar New Year and the following festivities will occupy most of the week. Still, Sunday will see China’s Caixin and NBS Manufacturing PMI releases, which are expected to show a halt in Chinese manufacturing sector growth in January. Japan will be releasing January’s consumer confidence indicator and the jobless rate for December, which is forecasted to remain unchanged at 2.8%. Down south, the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision will be highly monitored for clues on its forward guidance, after hotter-than-expected inflation data strengthened the case for a rate hike as soon as May. Meanwhile, the rest of the week should be dominated by more January PMI figures, CPI numbers for Indonesia, Thailand and South Korea, and India 2022-23 government budget.

On the earnings front, results will be coming from Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, Japanese industrial conglomerate Mitsubishi and automaker Honda Motor, and Indian conglomerate ITC.


https://tradingeconomics.com/calenda...ate=2022-01-28

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/...mpetition.html

Closed AUD shorts just in time last week. I only change my positions when fundamentals change or risk on/off changes occur. Fundamentals did change with US GDP Data coming 1.4% higher than expected, weighing on the currency. Which is why we see USD is retracing against most of the currencies right now despite a hawkish FED.

Looking at the RBA Statement that published on 01/02/2022:

RBA is hawkish than the previous meeting, but ending QE was expected. No clues on the date of interest rate hikes either. They basically said core inflation is 2.6% and they should wait until it surpasses 3%.

So i think this statement was expected and already priced in.

AUD is fundamentally stronger than USD right now though. So an upwards move on AUDUSD shouldn't confuse you. I think it's better to look at GBPAUD to see the actual strength of the RBA Statement.

This may have a bearish impact short term on GBPAUD, but this RBA statement won't be able to send GBPAUD down in the long run. So i will keep my GBPAUD longs open.

Unless BoE makes a dovish surprise, and they probably won't, i will stay long on GBPAUD:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

As expected, GBPAUD long term trend is up from here:



And this is how my positions look so far, 4 pairs but no reds, all green



https://www.myfxbook.com/members/Nor...legacy/9364022

As you guys know, we have BoE and ECB monetary policy meetings on 03/02/2022

Let's start with BoE. I expect BoE to hike the rates, like most of the analysts. I don't think a rate hike would be enough to cause a big bullish move on pound, since market already expects that rate hike so it's already priced in.

Not hiking the rates though, would impact the Pound very bad, that would probably cause a sell-off like it happened back in 4 November, 2021.

I am heavily long on the Pound, currently have GBPUSD and GBPAUD longs which is why i decided to balance out the risk by opening a GBPJPY short position:



Coming to the ECB, both inflation and core inflation data that came out yesterday was higher than expected. Which may trigger a more hawkish ECB than we expect. So it's better to be careful. Still, with core inflation at 2.3%, there's still room for ECB to stay calm and blame the supply chain disruptions & rising energy prices for the rising inflation. So i am expecting a neutral ECB, but seeing a more hawkish ECB than before is also possible.

That's why i decided to lower the risks on my EUR/GBP shorts by opening a EUR/AUD long position:

Great analysis, thanks for sharing mate Will you please elaborate on what happened in 4 Nov. 2021 if you have time?