Forex Trading Technical Analysis By forum.forex

Jan-29, 2022, US economical news and Updates

Private sector lender IndusInd Bank's consolidated net profit jumped 50 per cent to Rs 1,242 crore in the October–December quarter (Q3) of FY22, aided by healthy net interest income and lower provisions. In the corresponding period of last year, the bank had reported a net profit of Rs 830 crore. The bank's standalone net profit for the period was up 36 per cent to Rs 1,161 crore.

Net interest income of the lender, the difference between interest earned and interest expended, increased 11 per cent to Rs 3,794 crore in the reporting quarter while net interest margin, a measure of profitability, stood at 4.10 per cent, up 3 basis points sequentially.


Other income rose 14 per cent to Rs 1,877 crore in Q3FY22 as against Rs 1,646 crore while core fee income grew 9 per cent YoY to Rs 1,519 crore as against Rs 1,389 crore in the corresponding quarter of previous year.

On the other hand, For more than a year it seemed as if the stock market could only go up, buoyed by a river of money that gushed from the government. In the past week, that illusion has been shattered.

Growing certainty that the Federal Reserve intends to raise interest rates, most likely as early as March, sent investors scurrying. On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved 1,000 points in a single day—twice. It sank more than 3%, then roared back up to close with a gain. Stocks gyrated the rest of the week, with the S&P 500 down more than 9% so far in 2022 and the Nasdaq-100 index off more than 14%.

Jan-31, 2022, Currency Trading Analysis, By forex forum.


GBP/USD continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 1.3420 while the U.S. dollar is moving lower against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index is currently trying to get below the support level at 97. In case this attempt is successful, the U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the next support level at 96.70 which will be bullish for GBP/USD.

Today, foreign exchange market traders will focus on general market sentiment and the developments in U.S. government bond markets. The yield of 2-year Treasuries stays close to recent highs as bond traders remain worried about inflation and potential Fed's moves.

Moreover, Last week, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) rose by 1.8%, returning to the levels of June 2020.

However, today DXY is declining. According to the data presented last Friday by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis, the growth in personal income of U.S. households slowed to +0.3% in December (against the forecast and the previous value of +0.5%), and spending decreased by -0.6% against the growth of +0.4% in November. At the same time, the preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan fell to 67.2 (against the forecast of 68.7 and the value of 68.8 in December).

The USD is down across the board as stocks extend the recovery.
We see a nice bullish impulse on EURUSD pair meaning that the bottom is in place and more upside can seen in sessions ahead. However, markets are waiting on EUR CPI data at 10GMT, followed by US ADP employment report later, so this is something that we have to watch today. Strong EUR CPI will likely indicate that ECB should be more hawkish.

EURUSD is making a sharp rise which is looking impulsive from 1.1121, so we assume that pair is bottoming and that more upside can be seen after wave B/2 pullback. In fact, recovery may be much higher if we consider that on a daily chart pair can be completing wave D of a triangle.

Moreover, EU core and headline inflation prints beat estimates (see economic calendar below) with Italian data following suit.

The Euro has been appreciating against the greenback this week with strong labour, growth and now inflation statistics. Inflation is likely to remain elevated with rising oil and gas prices plaguing the region.

German and French headline inflation figures earlier this week set the scene for higher EU inflation this morning adding to hawkish pressure on the ECB for tomorrow's interest rate decision. This being said, the ECB is unlikely to change its stance on inflation dissipating later in the year but questions around mounting inflationary pressures are bound to increase.

On the other hand, GBP/USD overall contains a big break at 1.3525 but then comes the day trade. This is where trading life becomes interesting.

A market price movement is as good as the MA and interest rate allows and its central bank created and determined.

EUR/USD for example in 2015 and 2016 traded anywhere from 75 to 80 daily pips on a 1/2 range and 150 to 160 pips for full ranges.

Presented for EUR/USD and GBP/USD is the present trade condition but situations change as interest rates adjust and adjustments happen every trade day. Today's EUR/USD and GBP/USD may or may not be tomorrow or next week's trade.

Feb-23, 2022, EU, US market analysis and currency trading latest forecast, by forex forum.

EUR/USD

Going along with that trendless US Dollar has been the mirror image in EUR/USD, and there's been a similar tightening action showing here with price action coiling deeper into compression.

There's a couple of trendlines at-play here and that goes along with existing support and resistance structure. The 1.1374 level remains relevant, and a breach there opens the door for a push up to 1409. On the support side, 1272 remains important, and tests below that open the door for longer-term support from 1187-1212.

On the other hand, The Canadian dollar was trying to strengthen against its US counterpart on Wednesday as global financial markets started off calm in Asia.

However, risk sentiment flipped on its head with investors waiting to see Russian President Vladimir Putin's next move after he sent troops into separatist regions of Ukraine.

The news fell in just after the opening on Wall Street that Ukraine had planned to declare a state of emergency after warnings from the US that Russia will invade within 48hrs. Further reports enhanced the risk-off moves that cited convoys of military equipment moving towards Donetsk in eastern Ukraine from the direction of the Russian Frontier.

Elsewhere, Australian wage growth edged higher in the fourth quarter, rising 2.3% YoY, just shy of the consensus of 2.4%. On a quarterly basis, wages rose 0.7%, matching the forecast. Wages are moving higher, but likely not fast enough to move the needle on the RBA's rate plans. Wage data is keenly monitored by the RBA, which has insisted that inflation will not be sustainable in its target of 2-3% unless wage growth is much higher. With the pace of wage growth lagging behind inflation, which is around 3.5%, the RBA can continue to preach patience, although the markets are more hawkish and have priced in five rate hikes this year.

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Feb-28, 2022, Currency market technical analysis and Russia Ukraine crisis forecast, by forex forum.


EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The EUR/USD daily chart shows that the pair is downward biased. Why? The daily moving averages (DMAs) reside above the spot price, aiming lower, indicating that the downtrend might accelerate in the near term. Nevertheless, Monday's gap down increased buying pressure on the pair, but as long as Ukraine – Russia's war does not stop, the EUR/USD would be subject to market mood swings unless a peace agreement is reached.

Therefore, the EUR/USD would remain downwards. The pair's first support would be 1.1200. Breach of the latter would expose the 2021 November 24 pivot low at 1.1186, followed by February 24 YTD low at 1.1106.

EUR/USD price is currently trading at 1.1197. The 1.1185 and then 1.11659 levels are the next downside targets, followed by the low for the day at 1.11414. The low last week reached 1.11056. That low took out the low from January 28th and took the price to the lowest level since May/June 2020.


On the other hand, Russia conflict that escalated on Saturday, amid Western countries imposing stringent sanctions to Russia, to some of its government officials, and to Russian oligarchs linked to the Vladimir Putin regime. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 115.07.

In the meantime, US Treasury yields closely correlated to USD/JPY price action behavior fall. The US 10-year benchmark note falls eleven basis points, from 1.927% to 1.873%, a headwind for the USD/JPY. The greenback, sought as a safe-haven asset, rises as portrayed by the US Dollar Index, which measures the buck's value vs. a basket of rivals, sits at 96.81, up 0.20%.

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Mar-04, 2022, EUR/USD, GBP/USD trading analysis and US job market data updates

Weekly close above 1.10 may slightly take the edge off the euro's sharp losses of late.

"With no end in sight to the war in Ukraine and more event shocks ahead (like the nuclear power plant yesterday), the EUR is at risk of losses to 1.08 in the short run."

"EUR/USD now faces limited support markers until psychological floors in the 1.09 and 1.08 zones."

"A weekly close above the figure may slightly take the edge off the currency's sharp losses of late, but upward momentum remains limited and there are no clear signs of a reversal being in the works."

Moreover, Energy prices will hurt growth in the euro area more than in the US.

"The repercussions for energy prices are most severe in Europe due to its energy dependency on imports. The US is in comparison energy self-reliant and a net petroleum exporter. It is also worth noting that European households spend a higher proportion of their income on heating/gas/electricity compared to American households. Hence, the economic ramifications will be more pronounced for the European economies than in the US."

On the other hand, Non-farm Payrolls was released this morning to the tune of +678k . This is the final NFP release ahead of the March FOMC rate decision where the bank is expected to hike rates for the first time since 2018. But, perhaps more importantly, this would be the first step towards paring back some of the outsized accommodation that had been set since the onset of Covid.

Jobs data has remained in focus as this has been the Fed's pressure point for liftoff. Inflation raged throughout last year but the bank continually avoided any element of tightening for fear of choking off the labor market recovery.

Overall, the job gains continue to show strong growth with the unemployment rate falling as well toward full employment. However, the wage data was contained with earnings on the month virtually flat and the YoY declining to 5.1% from 5.5%.

*. EURUSD is continuing to trade near session lows
*. GBPUSD is also trading lower (higher USD).
*. Dow -234 point.
*. S&P -28 points
*.NASDAQ -80 points

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Mar-11, 2022, Currency Trading weekly Analysis and Market Forecast, By Forex Forum.

EUR/GBP Analysis Today

EUR/GBP has stabilised on Friday just to the south of the 0.8400 level as traders mull how the Ukraine war and related global economic impact effects the UK/EU economic outlook, as well as the outlook for BoE/ECB policy. Speaking of, after Thursday's more hawkish than expected shift in the ECB's QE policy (towards ending net purchases in Q3 despite Ukraine uncertainties), EUR/GBP rallied to one-month highs in the 0.8430s, but these gains were short-lived. The pair has since dropped back to the 0.8375 area, down about 0.7% from Thursday's peaks, with about 0.2% of that drop coming on Friday, with better-than-expected UK January GDP figures likely weighing a tad.

On the other hand, YEN WEAKNESS AND OIL DEPENDENCY FAVORS USD/JPY BREAKOUT.

The Japanese Yen has been a rather frustrating pair to watch due to its tendency to trade in a sideways manner since the invasion of Ukraine. Typically, in times of geopolitical uncertainty, the Japanese Yen appreciates in line with its 'safe-haven' appeal, but not this time.
Japanese Yen crosses have largely benefitted from a recent depreciation in the Asian currency as it sees its trade balance continue to struggle. The value of Japanese imports have outpaced exports since August last year apart from November when it temporarily recovered above zero.

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Mar-23, 2022, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, RUB technical analysis and market latest forecast, By forex forum.


The euro weakened against the dollar on Wednesday amid another sharp increase in oil and natural gas prices and while investors waited for U.S. President Joe Biden to unveil new sanctions against Russia during his trip to Europe.

EUR/USD has subsided back to sub-1.1000 levels for a second successive session having again been unable to break above its 21-Day Moving Average which currently resides near the 1.1050 mark. At current levels in the 1.0980s, the pair is trading lower by about 0.4% on the session and eyeing a test of weekly lows posted on Tuesday in the 1.1060 area, as traders digest the latest batch of commentary from Fed policymakers. Cleveland Fed President Lorretta Mester become the latest of a growing throng of FOMC members to announce support for potential 50bps rate hikes at upcoming meetings and FX strategists think the ongoing hawkish shift in market expectations for Fed tightening in the coming year is providing ongoing support to the US dollar.

The British Pound spiked briefly higher, then slipped to session lows as hotter-than-expected UK CPI data failed to make an impression on Bank of England policy bets. The core rate of inflation rose to 5.2 percent year-on-year in February, topping baseline expectations of a more modest 5 percent result.

While this marks the fastest pace of price growth in 30 years, the data's implications seem to be adequately embedded into the markets' Bank of England policy expectations. These call for between 5-6 further rate hikes of 25bps each before the end of the year. That seems to be aggressive enough for traders, at least for now.

GBP/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Prices have staged a recovery following a test of the 1.30 figure. The bulls now face a formidable challenge on approach to a dense resistance area capped at 1.3412. Breaking above that may set the stage for a test of 1.3523. Neutralizing the dominant downtrend seems to demand a further push north of the 1.36 mark, however.

On the downside, initial support looks to be anchored at 1.3161. Taking that out sees a minor inflection point at 1.3082 along the way back to challenge the key swing bottom at 1.30.

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April-04, 2022, Currency market analysis and forecast, by forex forum.


The EURUSD is trading to a new session low and in the process is testing the next swing area between 1.09576 and 1.09675 (see earlier post here). There is some cause for pause against the area. However, a move below that level will target the low from last week at 1.0944.

The move to the downside today got a shove below the 200 hour MA (green line), and has also moved below the 50% of the range since the March low at 1.0994. An upward sloping trend line on the hourly chart was also broken in the downward move.

Moreover, The US dollar is robust at the start of the week, with the DXY higher on the day so far by nearly 0.5% and for three straight sessions. US yields are firmer due to the narrative surrounding the Federal reserve and as civilian killings in north Ukraine keep the safe-haven appeal alive in financial markets. In turn, the euro is on the backfoot and weighed also by the prospect of increased sanctions.

At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading lower by 0.7% and some change after falling from a high of 1.1054 to a low of 1.0960. The euro is trapped between mixed sentiment surrounding the path of the European Central bank, Ukraine crisis risks to the economy and runaway inflation in the US which, for now at least, is supporting demand for the greenback.

On the other hand, AUD/USD reversed course after taking out the 2021 low (0.6993) in January.

The exchange rate traded above the 50-Week SMA for the first time since July after clearing the yearly opening range in March. AUD/USD may continue to retrace the decline from last year as the exchange rate is on the cusp of testing the October high (0.7556), but the diverging paths for monetary policy may curb the bullish price action. The Federal Reserve looks to implement a series of rate hikes over the coming months, while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains in no rush to switch gears.

As a result, the advance from the yearly low (0.6968) may turn out to be a correction as the 50-Week SMA continues to reflect a negative slope. The exchange rate may attempt to further retrace the decline from the 2021 high (0.8007), if it manages to penetrate the former support zone around the October high (0.7556).

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April-05, 2022, Currency trading technical analysis and daily market forecast, By forex forum.

At 161.79, GBP/JPY is nearly 0.5% at the time of writing, after travelling from a low of 160.49 to reach a high of 161.97. The yen is under pressure as US yields and the dollar climb. Yields took off after US Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard put the focus back on the possibility of aggressive monetary policy tightening ahead of tomorrow's minutes of the prior Fed meeting.

Brainard said she expects rapid reductions to the Fed's balance sheet alongside methodical increases to the benchmark rate. This has sprung life into the US dollar and the yen is bearing the brunt of it.

''The Bank of England and market economists have warned that UK inflation could peak at 8% in the coming months and, due to the impact of the Russia/Ukraine conflict, both energy prices and headline inflation may remain elevated for longer, analysts at Rabobank said.

On the other hand, EUR/USD FACES INTENSIFYING PRESSURE
As proposed sanctions and a more hawkish Fed continue to weigh on the Euro, EUR/USD continues to slide towards the March low, holding as support at 1.085.

With Fed officials suggesting that they could start reducing the balance sheet as early as May, proposed sanctions and an optimistic ISM report have placed further pressure on EUR/USD which remains well-below the 50-day MA (moving average).

As long as the 1.100 mark holds as resistance, the 1.085 remains key with a break below bringing the April 2020 low into play at 1.0756.

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April-14, 2022, Currency trading technical analysis and forex market latest analysis, By forex forum.


GBP/JPY hit fresh more than six-year highs on Thursday, eclipsing Wednesday’s 164.84 peak by about one pip. However, despite a sharp rise in US, UK and global developed market bond yields (apart from in Japan), the pair was not able to muster a convincing bullish break towards 165.00. Rather, the pair on Thursday slipped back to test the 164.00 level once again and at current levels in the 164.40s, trades with losses of about 0.2% on the day.

The lack of bullish momentum could have something to do with the risk-off tone to US equity market trade – typically, GBP/JPY is correlated to other risk assets like US stocks. It could have something to do with the fact that, since the start of the month, GBP/JPY has already put in a solid nearly 3.0% rally from the sub-160.00 levels, and was thus due some profit-taking/consolidation.

On the other hand, US TREASURIES LOWER, US AND UK INFLATION HIGHER
On Tuesday and Wednesday we saw US and UK headline measures of inflation (inclusive of fuel and food which tend to exhibit the most volatile price changes) which both beat expectations. Upward surprises in inflation data seems to be the norm but the market took more notice of the fact that US core inflation (excluding food and fuel) data rose less than expected. A lower core inflation reading suggests that maybe inflation isn’t as widespread throughout the economy as previously observed and that we could start to see a slow down in general price increases.

GBP/USD: KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS

Sterling wasted no time surpassing 1.3080 which leaves 1.3190 as the next level of resistance as this level temporarily capped prices in March. As mentioned earlier, the real test for the pound is that zone of resistance around 1.3265 which coincided with the mid-point of the descending channel and effectively repelled the GBP/USD advance in March.

The fairly large option expiry later today could see prices head lower. In that case, 1.3080 returns as support followed by the psychological level of 1.3000.


Elsewhere, Short-dated euro zone bond yields and the single currency fell on Thursday as traders pared back rate hike bets after the European Central Bank refrained from switching to a more hawkish stance.

Bond yields have marched higher in recent weeks as investors bet the ECB will raise rates sooner rather than later to curb euro zone inflation which, at 7.5%, is well above the bank's 2% target.

But the ECB concluded its latest meeting with cautious steps to unwind support and avoiding any firm pledge beyond the end of bond buys it had already laid out in March.

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April-27, 2022, Currency market latest forecast, by forex forum.

The US Dollar may sharply rise in the week ahead as market-wide risk aversion grips investors amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and hawkish comments from the Fed. The anti-risk Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc may also get a push higher, though the Greenback’s unparalleled liquidity may give it an edge over its counterparts.

US, EUROZONE CPI AND GDP DATA
Upcoming Eurozone CPI and GDP data could rattle the Euro and exacerbate its losses against the US Dollar if the outcomes convince traders that the ECB may have to reconsider its rate hike plans. Last week, the Euro plunged after central bank President Christine Lagarde said monetary authorities may need to cut the growth outlook as a result of the fallout from the Ukraine war.

Combined with the Fed’s hawkish comments, this saw EUR/USD plunge as money markets increased their bets of ultra-aggressive rate hikes in 2022. US GDP and personal income/spending data will be published this week, and may exacerbate the pair’s volatility if the figures reinforce the Fed’s hawkish outlook.

EUR/USD Technical analysis

EUR/USD is trading at new lows below 1.0620 today after falling notably on the news that Russia has cut gas supplies to Poland. Energy risks are set to hurt EUR further, economists at MUFG Bank report.

Next downside target is early 2017 low of 1.0341
“A wider cut off of supply could see gas prices double from yesterday’s close to around EUR 200 MWh. A wider cut-off would have a significant negative impact on sentiment and would have further negative consequences for the euro.”

In the meantime, the U.S. dollar index, which measures its performance against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.3% to 102.6, after touching its highest since the early days of the pandemic.

Also supporting the dollar index, traders wager that rates are going up faster in the United States than any other major economy.

"The U.S. dollar benefits from the prospect of an ongoing flight to safety liquidity bid," Jeremy Stretch, head of G10 FX strategy at CIBC, said.

"The U.S. looks set to be less impacted than others, notably Europe and Japan, from the energy price spike. As a consequence of the latter, the Fed remains the most hawkish central bank and the dollar remains well supported, even if it remains rather overbought", he added.

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May-06, 2022, Weekly Currency trading forecast, by forex forum.


The British pound appears to regain composure but remains losing in the day, down 0.06%, after the Bank of England hiked rates by 25-bps on Thursday. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.2352.

US employment figures came positive, and the BoE expects inflation to reach 10%
Global equities remain down during the North American session, while the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a YTD high of around 3.131%. Albeit higher US yields, the greenback is giving back some earlier weekly gains, as portrayed by the US Dollar Index, a gauge of the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, down 0.18%, sitting at 103.370.

Elsewhere, The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies on Friday after two volatile days as investors focused on how aggressive the Federal Reserve will be in hiking rates as it tackles rising inflation.

The dollar index hit a 20-year high overnight on safe haven demand, following a sharp stock selloff on Thursday driven by concerns about the Fed's aggressive tightening and as European currencies weakened on worries about growth in the region.

It retraced some of these gains, however, as investors evaluated how much of the Fed’s hawkishness is already priced into the greenback, and as some analysts argued that inflation may be nearing a peak.

Data on Friday showed that U.S. job growth increased more than expected in April. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% after advancing 0.5% in March. That lowered the year-on-year increase in wages to 5.5% from 5.6% in March.

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May-11, 2022, Daily Currency market technical analysis and forecast, by forex forum.


All attention will now be focused on inflation data in the US, on which the further direction of the pair depends. In the event of a decrease in price pressure, as economists expect, the demand for risky assets will increase, which will lead to an upward movement of EUR/USD and a re-growth in the area of 1.0571. If the situation turns out to be not as favorable as many expect, the pressure on the euro will return, because the US dollar will continue to strengthen its position with increased price pressure, which will force the Federal Reserve System to act more aggressively - even an increase in interest rates by 0.75% immediately in June this year is not excluded.

A breakout and a top-down test of 1.0571 form a new signal for entering long positions, strengthening buyers, and opening up the opportunity for further growth of EUR/USD to the area of 1.0638, where I recommend fixing the profits. A more distant target will be the 1.0691 area. In the event of a decline in EUR/USD and the absence of buyers at 1.0519, the optimal scenario for buying will be a false breakdown near this year's low of 1.0473.

I advise you to open long positions on the euro immediately for a rebound only from 1.0426, or even lower - around 1.0394 with the aim of an upward correction of 30-35 points inside the day.

On the other hand, Economists at Commerzbank are seeing depreciation pressure for the Chinese yuan over the coming year. They forecast USD/CNY at 6.70 and 6.80 by the year-end of 2022 and 2023 respectively.

A weakening bias for CNY

“A strong dollar due to policy tightening is likely to the main theme in the coming years, while China has much smaller room to maneuver which implies a downside risk for the Chinese currency.”

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Foreign Exchange Weekly Trading Start, Let's see the market latest forecast, May-16, 2022.

Gold spot (XAU/USD) recovers some ground after slipìng below the $1800 mark on Friday, on higher US Treasury yields, which during the session are sliding, thus lifting the prospects of the non-yielding metal. XAU/USD is trading almost flat, around $1811.02 a troy ounce at the time of writing.

Gold Price Forecast (XAU/USD): Technical outlook

Interestingly, the Gold Price jumped near the YTD low at around $1786 and is forming a “gravestone doji,” which is perceived as a signal of “indecision.” Also, it’s worth noting that an almost-two-year-old upslope trendline, previous support, has been broken. Unless gold bulls reclaim the aforementioned, XAU/USD is vulnerable to further downward pressure.

If XAU/USD’s bulls reclaim the upslope trendline, they will find resistance levels around the 200-DMA at $1837, followed by May 3 cycle low at $1850, and then the $1890 barrier.

On the flip side, XAU/USD’s first support would be $1800. Break below would expose May 16 daily low at $1786, followed by the YTD low at $1780 and then December’s 15 cycle low at $1752.35.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis:

On the other hand, USD/JPY bearish – there are good reasons to expect the currency pair to fall, and the trade seems more straightforward than other ones.

It has begun trading in a downtrend channel, with lower highs and lower lows. Momentum on the 4h-chart has turned negative, the RSI has failed to climb above the 50 level, and the price is capped at the 100-SMA – after falling below the 50-SMA.

Support is at 128.70, which cushioned the pair twice in May. The monthly low of 127.50 is the next level to watch, and it also converges with the 200-SMA. Further down, 126.90 and 126.40 are noteworthy. Resistance is at 1.2950, and then at 130.90.

Elsewhere, The European Commission’s Spring Forecast for 2022 revised Eurozone inflation upward to 6.1% in 2022 as expected with forecasts expected to decline to 2.7% in 2023. Growth projections in the region were subsequently lowered to 2.3% from 2.7% in February.

Initial reaction from the Euro was positive with higher inflation potentially leading to a more aggressive ECB. Money markets are looking more hawkish than last week Friday with roughly 94bps priced in for 2022 as opposed to 80-85bps on Friday. The ECB’s Villeroy added support for the Euro stating that the June meet will be “decisive” while moving towards a “neutral rate”.

Technically, there is a struggle for the 1.043–1.0435 area on the EURUSD daily chart. Closing above it is a reason to buy euros in the short term. In this scenario, there is a risk of a pullback in the direction of 1.047, 1.051, and 1.054. From there, it makes sense to sell the pair in the medium term on the rebound from the resistance. The formation of a Double Bottom pattern on the 1-hour timeframe gives hope for euro bulls.

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May-17, 2022, Currency Market Daily Analysis and Forecast, by forex forum.


The market mood in the New York session remains positive, carrying on the mood from the Asian and European sessions. US equities are recording gains between 1% and 2.67%.

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

On Tuesday, the EUR/JPY surged above the 50-day moving average and the head-and-shoulders neckline in the 134.95-135.25/35 area, threatening to invalidate the chart pattern. In the near term, the bias, which shifted to neutral-upwards, as of writing is upwards.

With that said, the EUR/JPY’s first resistance would be 137.00. Break above would expose 138.00, followed by May 9 swing high at 138.32. On the flip side, the EUR/JPY first support would be 136.00. A breach of the latter, the next support would be the head-and-shoulders neckline around 135.25-35, followed by April’s 27 daily low at 134.77.

On the other hand, The dollar fell for a third straight day on Tuesday, pulling back from a two-decade high against a basket of major peers, as an uptick in investors' appetite for riskier bets diminished the U.S. currency's appeal.

Upbeat earnings views from Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and United Airlines along with optimism around the easing of China's crackdown on tech and COVID-19, helped to lift risk sentiment.

The U.S. Dollar Currency Index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was down 0.7% at 103.41, its lowest since May 6. The index hit a two-decade high last week supported by a hawkish Federal Reserve and worries over the global economic fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

For getting latest currency trading technical analysis and forex trading profitable strategies, you should join this forex trading forum.

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May-18, 2022, Daily Currency Trading technical analysis and market forecast, by forex forum.


GBP/USD jumped in excess of 1.3% on Tuesday, its best performance in nearly 18-months after the UK Jobs Report showed that the labor market remains in rude health. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, its lowest level in 50-years, while average earnings including bonuses rose by 7% in March as employers paid more to keep existing staff.

Retail trader data show 69.52% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.28 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 12.59% lower than yesterday and 19.96% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 40.21% higher than yesterday and 50.83% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBP/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

Moreover, The pound fell against the dollar on Wednesday after data showed British inflation rising to 9%, the highest level in 40 years.

At 0846 GMT, sterling was down 0.9% against the U.S. dollar at $1.23820.

The drop reverses most of the gains made on Tuesday when the pound touched its highest level since May 5.

Strong labour market data had boosted expectations that the Bank of England would have to further increase interest rates, but the latest inflation numbers are fuelling fears that the threat of recession may temper how far the central bank can go.

"Yesterday it looked like with wage growth rising and unemployment so low it meant that the bank had more room for manoeuvre," said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown

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May-24, 2022, Daily Currency trading technical and fundamental analysis, by forex forum.


The Russian rouble strengthened to levels not seen since March 2018 against the dollar on Tuesday, boosted by export-focused companies selling foreign currency to pay taxes and shrugging off a slight easing of capital controls.

The rouble has firmed about 30% against the dollar this year despite a full-scale economic crisis in Russia, making it the world's .

The rouble is steered by capital controls imposed in late February to shield Russia's financial sector after Moscow's decision to send tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine prompted unprecedented Western sanctions.

At 1110 GMT, the rouble was 2.5% stronger against the dollar at 56.36, hovering around this level for the first time in more than four years.

Against the euro, the rouble gained 3% to 58.24, its strongest in seven years.

EUR/GBP

On the other hand, EUR/GBP: Retail trader data shows 49.92% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.00 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since May 16 when EUR/GBP traded near 0.85, price has moved 1.33% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 12.30% lower than yesterday and 8.89% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 17.92% higher than yesterday and 31.60% higher from last week.

Moreover, The Pound (GBP) is tumbling against its rivals today after poor UK PMI figures this morning added to fears of a 2022 recession in the UK. The reading of the UK’s services PMI fell to 51.8 versus forecasts of 57 as the country’s cost-of-living crisis squeezes household spending.

Samiel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said:

‘The collapse in the composite PMI in May is the clearest sign yet that demand is faltering in response to the intense squeeze on households’ real disposable incomes.’

Analysts have also highlighted the likelihood that soaring inflation is likely to prompt even worse figures in the coming months.

Concerns that the data could limit further rate hikes from the Bank of England’s (BoE) are also likely weighing on GBP today. Financial markets do still expect the central bank to raise rates to at least 2% by year’s end, however.

At time of writing the GBP/USD exchange rate is at around $1.2507, which is down roughly -0.5% from this morning’s opening figures.

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May-25, 2022, Daily forex trading analysis and currency exchange forecast, by forex forum.


EUR/USD corrects lower following a failed attempt to extend the daily range further north of the 1.0750 zone, sparking a subsequent correction of nearly one big figure to the vicinity of 1.0640.

The renewed strength in the dollar sponsored the move lower in spot, which it has also met some help from lower yields on both sides of the ocean.

No news from earlier comments from ECB-speakers, as practically all of them joined the summer rate hike narrative in place in the last couple of weeks.

In the euro calendar, earlier results saw the German GDP Growth Rate expand 3.8% YoY in Q1 and the Consumer Confidence tracked by GfK improve marginally to -26 for the month of June. In France, the Consumer Confidence came in short of expectations in May at 86 (from April’s 87).

Elsewhere, GBP/USD stalls below $1.26

The weakening dollar has given GBP/USD space to bounce, and since mid-month the pair has been able to move back towards the early May highs at $1.26. But a weaker set of purchasing manager index (PMIs) yesterday meant that the pound ran into some selling pressure, and as a result, the pair has been unable to maintain upward progress, and is now at risk of turning lower.

Fresh declines would bring the May low back into view, down towards $1.22 and potentially lower, with $1.208 the next big level to watch.

JPY/USD

On the other hand, Turning to the economic calendar, the focus will be on April U.S. PCE scheduled for Friday. U.S. markets are closed next Monday for the Memorial Day holiday and traders are starting to leave their desks for the long weekend, so liquidity conditions could deteriorate further in the coming days. Thin liquidity could amplify price volatility if key data surprises relative to expectations. Check out the forum.forex Economical calendar to see what traders expect.

In terms of technical analysis, USD/JPY has bounced off support in the 126.50 zone and seems to be heading towards trendline resistance near 127.40. If price manages to clear this hurdle, bulls could launch an attack on 128.40, the upper boundary of a short-term descending channel. On further strength, the focus shifts higher to 129.75. On the flip side, if sellers return and spark a bearish reversal, initial support spans from 126.50/126.15. If this area is breached on the downside, USD/JPY could be on its way towards the psychological 125.00 level.

US dollar

The U.S. dollar snapped a two-day losing streak on Wednesday ahead of the release of the minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's May meeting, which investors will parse for clues about further interest rate hikes.

The minutes are due at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT). U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has promised to continue hiking rates until there is clear and convincing evidence that inflation is under control.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of peer currencies, was up 0.491% at 102.25, at 10:15 a.m. (1415 GMT).

The dollar had fallen to a one-month low on Tuesday after European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde flagged an end to negative interest rates in the euro zone in the third quarter.

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May-30, 2022, Daily Currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.


The US dollar is trading sideways today, not helped by the Memorial Day holiday in the US, leaving GBP/USD listless in early turnover. With US markets closed, and with no UK economic data on the slate, today’s session will likely see little volatility or price action.

The UK is also nearing a four-day weekend with the Queen’s Platinum Celebrations commencing this Thursday, leaving the pair vulnerable to US dollar drivers at the end of the week, especially Friday’s US non-farm payroll report.

GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART

Retail trader data show 67.44% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.07 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 1.13% higher than yesterday and 7.83% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.04% higher than yesterday and 19.77% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBP/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

EUR/USD struggles around the 55-day simple moving average.

On the other hand, EUR/USD’s near 4% rally from its mid-May $1.035 low has so far taken it to a one-month high at $1.077 as US core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price inflation continues to slow down. The cross seems to be struggling around the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.077 as US markets are shut due to Memorial Day with quiet trading expected to be seen in currency markets today.

EUR/GBP continues to oscillate around the £0.85 mark

Moreover, EUR/GBP faltered at £0.8587, last week, marginally below the £0.8618 mid-May peak, before it rapidly came off following record low German GfK consumer confidence data. Last week’s low at £0.848 held throughout the week, though, with the cross heading back up again today, following a long Ascension Day holiday weekend in Catholic Europe.

The 16 May high at £0.8534 is back in the picture, a rise above which would lead to the £0.8587 to £0.8618 resistance area being revisited.

USD/JPY

Elsewhere, The USD/JPY pair gained some positive traction on Monday and held on to its modest intraday gains through the first half of the European session. The pair was last seen trading around the 127.25-127.30 area, up 0.15% for the day.

Investors turned optimistic amid hopes that the easing of COVID-19 restrictions in China would boost the global economy, which was evident from the ongoing risk-on rally in the equity markets. This, in turn, undermined demand for the safe-haven Japanese yen and acted as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair, though the prevalent US dollar selling bias kept a lid on any meaningful gains.

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